The Curious Case of Lars Anderson

He's actually only 5-11 now which has hurt his production.

That's a really odd statement. Lars hit .200/.326/.229. Pedroia hit .191/.258/.303 in his initial callup. You could argue that Lars was better, but A) it was by no great margin and B) in both cases we're talking about samples too small to draw any conclusions from anyway. Plus, Pedroia was a good second baseman and Lars was a decent first basemen, meaning the offensive bar was set much higher for Lars. On top of that, Pedroia hit considerably better in the upper minors than Lars did. Lars has basically had a couple good months in AA in his entire career, and he's never cleared an .800 OPS in any seasons he's spent at the AAA level. And even when he was hitting in high-A, that was in Lancaster, a park that makes basically any flyball hitter into a demi-god.

There's not really any mystery as to why Lars didn't make it. He's a first baseman who's never really hit like first baseman needs to at the upper levels, ever. Case closed.

It was probably Kevin Goldstein's fault for underrating him so much.

Dude had no loft in his swing. Reminded me of Sweeney's swing. early on.

Had this all explained to me once in extensive detail by a couple people who know a lot about it. Basically, the optimal plane at point of striking the ball to create loft is approximately 45 degrees (upward, obviously). Lars was making hard contact with his strike angle at 25-30 degrees which was resuting in low line drives, and led to topped groundballs as he faced more advanced pitching (additional movement on the ball and velocity making hitting an optimal strike point regardless of angle more difficult). Sox org tried to get him to adjust his swing path, which then screwed up his swing entirely.

Feel bad, but an important case in "know when to sell at the peak of. the hype" dilemma. They could've gotten a LOT for him in the winter of 08 after he moved from High A to AA and continued to kill the ball. It's always a challenge, and sometimes more so in the organizations - which often over value their prospects - to know if what you're seeing is real, an outlier or even a peak in performance.

I remember reading this article and feeling deflated since expectations were still high at this point (finished 2009 ranked #1 on this site):

firebrandal.com/2010/01/08/lars-anderson-looking-like-a-younger-casey-kotchman/

This is exactly what the RS front office is grappling with now as it tries to decide how or whether to improve the current team through trades. Which of its current prospects has the greatest likelihood of fixing his flaws? Which does not? Which one is over-valued by prospective trading partners? It's an informed crapshoot. But it's still a crapshoot.

Would you sell high on Bogaerts? Were it 10 years ago and GMs didn't protect young quality hitters/pitchers, you might have to consider it, for a big enough yield.

"Still, I wonder if Lars is worth a flyer. He's no longer blocked in Boston. In fact, Boston has no blue chippers at first."

This strikes me as a strange statement... how can anyone be blocked who can't play in the major leagues? Nathan Minnich will probably start as many games at 1B for the Red Sox as Lars Anderson does.

"Lars has basically had a couple good months in AA in his entire career, and he's never cleared an .800 OPS in any seasons he's spent at the AAA level. And even when he was hitting in high-A, that was in Lancaster, a park that makes basically any flyball hitter into a demi-god. "

True but important to mention (you sort of did) that he did great in Portland too that year, with almost as good power numbers. Then he lost it. Fast.

Oh, I'm sure he's available. Doubront, Bogaerts, Bradley Jr., Ranaudo and Workman should be enough to get it done.

Right. Let me amend: I can't imagine that Fernandez is available -- except for an outrageous price. Every player is available for a price. Fernandez is understandably priced too high at the moment.

The point stands: Any team willing to compensate the RS for Webster as a #1 should have their way with us.

Either way it doesn't matter. You can't draw any conclusions from a couple dozen games.


He didn't "fall off a cliff". He was never a good hitter at any point. His career line is .262/.359/.414 at AA, and .250/.348/.392 at AAA. That AAA line is in 2245 PAs. He can't hit.

(Also, Overbay is .790 career OPS guy, and from ages 26-32, he averaged .814. And in his day he was one of the better defensive 1Bs in the game.)


Ok, well the larger sample tells us more than the smaller one. The fact that you can isolate one of the best stretches of Lars's career and say it holds up to one of the worst of Pedroia's isn't really a point in Lars's favor. Plus, the one year age difference actually matters when we're talking about players that young. And, maybe someone can confirm this, I think that was the year Pedroia was playing through a shoulder injury.


Dude he's had like three changes of scenery. He's had over 2000 AAA PAs and done nothing with them. And he got released by the White Sox, a terrible team with a terrible farm system. If he ever had the skills to justify a #17 ranking, they're gone now. More likely, BA and SP were just flat wrong about the guy, even at the time. That's not a slam on two sources that I respect, it's just the nature of the prospect game.


I have no idea if that's true or not. I do know that Pedroia has skills that Lars simply doesn't possess. All the desire in the world isn't going to give you Pedroia's hand-eye coordination.

Here's the thing. You're asking why Lars failed. I don't think that's the right question. I think the question is, why were YOU so sure that he would succeed in the first place? The players are what they are, we're the ones who screw up when we evaluate them. With Lars, I think he's basically Aaron Bates with a bigger draft bonus. Take away his performance in Lancaster, and what are you left with? A guy who hit OK but not great in Greenville and who never really did anything in the upper minors. We bought into the hype when we really shouldn't have.