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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 24, 2013 13:58:47 GMT -5
As the trade deadline looms, I thought it would be interesting to see how members of this board value the Sox prospects before moves are made. It works like this, this is NOT a trade proposal thread. This is simply a barometer of what people on this forum feel that certain prospects are worth in a trade so when/if a trade occurs, we can compare the value of what they got to what the consensus of the forum thought the prospect was worth beforehand. If you feel that certain players are "untouchable", by all means, go right ahead and state as much, but do you honestly believe that no deal could be had for them? What if the Dodgers offered Puig, Kershaw, and Kemp for just Xander? Not so untradeable now, is he?
For me, here is a list of the top 5 prospects that I feel are of equivalent value:
1. Xander Bogaerts - I would only deal him in a package for a young, proven stud like King Felix or Matt Kemp of two years ago. Anything less is not appropriate value.
2. Jackie Bradley Jr. - Next tier of players, very good, but not great. I would be comfortable with a pitcher like Garza or a batter like Brian McCann.
3. Garin Cecchini - Same as Bradley Jr. should not be packaged together to acquire the next tier, but can be packaged together to acquire a elite talent.
4. Allen Webster - Stock has fallen a bit since his promotion to Boston. Still, scouts like his stuff and some teams still believe he's a borderline 1 or a strong 2. Equal value would be for an aging ace who can win now like Cliff Lee or second tier talent.
5. Rubby De La Rosa - A bit of a wild card here. Has the same potential as Allen Webster, but most likely is a bullpen ace. Equivalent value would be a buy-low stud like Jesus Montero or used as a piece that could acquire an aging star like Cliff Lee.
Thoughts? Over-valued, under-valued? What about other prospects within the system?
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 24, 2013 14:17:03 GMT -5
As the trade deadline looms, I thought it would be interesting to see how members of this board value the Sox prospects before moves are made. It works like this, this is NOT a trade proposal thread. This is simply a barometer of what people on this forum feel that certain prospects are worth in a trade so when/if a trade occurs, we can compare the value of what they got to what the consensus of the forum thought the prospect was worth beforehand. If you feel that certain players are "untouchable", by all means, go right ahead and state as much, but do you honestly believe that no deal could be had for them? What if the Dodgers offered Puig, Kershaw, and Kemp for just Xander? Not so untradeable now, is he? For me, here is a list of the top 5 prospects that I feel are of equivalent value: 1. Xander Bogaerts - I would only deal him in a package for a young, proven stud like King Felix or Matt Kemp of two years ago. Anything less is not appropriate value. 2. Jackie Bradley Jr. - Next tier of players, very good, but not great. I would be comfortable with a pitcher like Garza or a batter like Brian McCann. 3. Garin Cecchini - Same as Bradley Jr. should not be packaged together to acquire the next tier, but can be packaged together to acquire a elite talent. 4. Allen Webster - Stock has fallen a bit since his promotion to Boston. Still, scouts like his stuff and some teams still believe he's a borderline 1 or a strong 2. Equal value would be for an aging ace who can win now like Cliff Lee or second tier talent. 5. Rubby De La Rosa - A bit of a wild card here. Has the same potential as Allen Webster, but most likely is a bullpen ace. Equivalent value would be a buy-low stud like Jesus Montero or used as a piece that could acquire an aging star like Cliff Lee. Thoughts? Over-valued, under-valued? What about other prospects within the system? Obviously cost and years of control have a lot to do with value, as well as performance, of course. Kemp's contact and injury situation are major concerns, and Kershaw, with free agency looming, could soon become the most expensive pitcher of all time (but man, do I love watching the guy pitch). I know you were just throwing that out there to counter the "untradable" consensus, but even a deal like that could financially cripple the club for years, or see the best pitcher in the game only be around for a couple months. With Xander, you have a guy who at the very least is going to be a prominent SS/3B, cost-controlled for several years, and possesses an magnificent ceiling. I think you are undervaluing Bradley big time. A player doesn't have to to be a potential all-star caliber player when holding back from trading for a short-term #3 starter or a solid but aging catcher. Bradley has great value in that he's a terrific defensive center fielder with a quality batting eye that could cement at the top of our lineup while being paid next to nothing for the foreseeable future. |
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 24, 2013 14:42:22 GMT -5
I'm not sold on Bradley as a superstar, but I think he will be a very good player. His value is greater to the Sox because he is the only replacement for Ellsbury, unless they sign a FA. So, I would rank him close to Bogaerts for that reason.
Think of Bogaerts as Hanley Ramirez without his faults. He may will have some +.300 seasons with 30 HRs, etc., putting him among the top players in the game. However, if a trade presented itself like the one the Sox made with Ramirez, maybe the same rationale would hold.
I think Cecchini is almost in the same tier as Bogaerts and Bradley.
I am uncertain right now about either Webster or De La Rosa, and I probably wouldn't rank either in the top five right now. I'd rank Owens above them. A team trading with the Sox might well, also.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 24, 2013 15:05:20 GMT -5
I would recommend that you try to categorize players as follows:
1st tier - Headliner in a deal for an above-average major league player
2nd tier - 2nd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for an average major league player
3rd tier - 3rd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for a borderline major league player
4th tier - Additional trade piece (usually a lottery ticket-type player or a Rule 5-eligible/40-man roster decision
1st tier players - Bogaerts
2nd tier players - Bradley, Cecchini, Webster, RDLR, Owens, Ranaudo
3rd tier players - Barnes, Swihart, Workman, Britton, Marrero, CVaz, Brentz/Wilson (if they weren't hurt)
4th tier lottery tickets - Betts, Margot, Buttrey, Ramos, Lin, Mercedes, Montas, Kukuk, Gomez, Callahan, Mercedes, Almonte, Rijo
4th tier 40-man roster decisions - Almanzar, KDLC, Hassan, JHaze, Huntzinger, Hernandez, Butler/Lavarnway
Trying to tie prospects to specific major league players is a fool's errand.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 24, 2013 15:08:49 GMT -5
So both of you would say that JBJ should only be traded for the elite of the elite?
Let's go a little further.
Will Middlebrooks - Right now I feel like he's a piece who would be used to acquire an under-achiever whose had some success like Justin Smoak
Henry Owens - Too early to tell. He might be needed as a piece to acquire the upper echelon talent, but won't garnish much on his own
Guys who I feel like are available for a top-flight BP arm like Jesse Crain:
Bryce Brentz and Deven Marrero
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 24, 2013 15:13:38 GMT -5
I would recommend that you try to categorize players as follows: 1st tier - Headliner in a deal for an above-average major league player 2nd tier - 2nd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for an average major league player 3rd tier - 3rd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for a borderline major league player 4th tier - Additional trade piece (usually a lottery ticket-type player or a Rule 5-eligible/40-man roster decision 1st tier players - Bogaerts 2nd tier players - Bradley, Cecchini, Webster, RDLR, Owens, Ranaudo 3rd tier players - Barnes, Swihart, Workman, Britton, Marrero, CVaz, Brentz/Wilson (if they weren't hurt) 4th tier lottery tickets - Betts, Margot, Buttrey, Ramos, Lin, Mercedes, Montas, Kukuk, Gomez, Callahan, Mercedes, Almonte, Rijo 4th tier 40-man roster decisions - Almanzar, KDLC, Hassan, JHaze, Huntzinger, Hernandez, Butler/Lavarnway Trying to tie prospects to specific major league players is a fool's errand. I actually like the way you categorized this list. Not only that, but I can't really disagree with that list. With that being said, it'd be interesting to incorporate a way to see what kind of players you'd hope to see in return for a package involving those players. For example, for Bogaerts, I'm not too thrilled to see "above-average major league player" because it sounds like he's the center piece for Brian McCann. On the other hand, King Felix would also fit the bill for "above average" as well and I would be more than thrilled to see him in Boston. Overall, great organization. |
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Post by raftsox on Jul 24, 2013 15:28:28 GMT -5
I would recommend that you try to categorize players as follows: 1st tier - Headliner in a deal for an above-average major league player 2nd tier - 2nd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for an average major league player 3rd tier - 3rd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for a borderline major league player 4th tier - Additional trade piece (usually a lottery ticket-type player or a Rule 5-eligible/40-man roster decision 1st tier players - Bogaerts 2nd tier players - Bradley, Cecchini, Webster, RDLR, Owens, Ranaudo 3rd tier players - Barnes, Swihart, Workman, Britton, Marrero, CVaz, Brentz/Wilson (if they weren't hurt) 4th tier lottery tickets - Betts, Margot, Buttrey, Ramos, Lin, Mercedes, Montas, Kukuk, Gomez, Callahan, Mercedes, Almonte, Rijo 4th tier 40-man roster decisions - Almanzar, KDLC, Hassan, JHaze, Huntzinger, Hernandez, Butler/Lavarnway Trying to tie prospects to specific major league players is a fool's errand. I like this avenue. It's clearer and may help prevent potential trade discussion. We disagree on some of the rankings though: 1st tier players - Bogaerts 2nd tier players - Bradley, Cecchini, Webster, RDLR, Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes, Swihart, CVaz, Marrero, Buttrey, Callahan 3rd tier players - Workman, Britton, Brentz/Wilson, Betts, Kukuk, Rijo, Lin 4th tier lottery tickets - Margot, Ramos, Mercedes, Montas, Gomez, Mercedes, Almonte 4th tier 40-man roster decisions - Almanzar, KDLC, Hassan, JHaze, Huntzinger, Hernandez, Butler/Lavarnway I tend to think the 2nd tier players is the largest pool (of legitimate, tradeable players) because it includes players that either fill a need in the near future (C, SP), were high draft picks who've only been in the system a short time (Barnes, Callahan) or were a significant investment and are "quick" to the majors players (Marrero). Third tier players are either cost-controlled pieces that are almost ready but have warts (Workman, Brentz, Reddick, Lowrie), are lottery tickets that are more advanced than a 17YO IFA (Betts, Kukuk), or are high dollar IFAs. I don't feel like Montas should be in the same category as Lin, for example. |
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 24, 2013 16:03:14 GMT -5
I don't see Callahan or Buttrey having any value right now. They have Raul Alcantara value, as a third piece in a trade. Prospects 4+ years away from a single MLB pitch aren't real prospects where trades are concerned.
You could get far more for Workman than either or both of those guys IMO. Workman may never have more value than he does today.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 24, 2013 17:34:58 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for any pitcher. Because, pitchers. Harper, Trout, maybe Stanton, that's really it. Part of this is the fan in me, which is fine, but I think it's fairly objective.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 24, 2013 21:12:27 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for any pitcher. Because, pitchers. Harper, Trout, maybe Stanton, that's really it. Part of this is the fan in me, which is fine, but I think it's fairly objective. This is why it's basically impossible to trade a guy like Bogaerts. It's very rare that a player good enough to justify doing so becomes available. And Stanton might actually be that guy (good enough + available), but his leg injuries scare the crap out of me. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 24, 2013 21:42:37 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for any pitcher. Because, pitchers. Harper, Trout, maybe Stanton, that's really it. Part of this is the fan in me, which is fine, but I think it's fairly objective. This is why it's basically impossible to trade a guy like Bogaerts. It's very rare that a player good enough to justify doing so becomes available. And Stanton might actually be that guy (good enough + available), but his leg injuries scare the crap out of me. The strained hamstring doesn't really seem to be a major concern right now, its that he's got no protection in the lineup, other than LoMo and he's chasing pitches out of the zone he wouldn't have before. That is a very, very young team that got even younger yesterday when they called up Yelich and Marisnick. Can see them holding onto Stanton another year, or giving him a good chance to increase his numbers and increase value on the market if Yelich (who got 3 hits in debut), Brantley and glove wiz Hechavarria can improve next year. Someone who could get moved and would be the 1st as my guess of LoMo/Stanton, is LoMo. A powerful swinging lefty who would fit Yankee stadium. Yep, NY would have to get out of paying Arod and Tex slide to DH, but just think he could hit 25+ HR for years at Yankee stadium. He'd cost the Yankees in prospects. They'd be digging under all the seat cushions. |
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Post by raftsox on Jul 25, 2013 7:37:09 GMT -5
I don't see Callahan or Buttrey having any value right now. They have Raul Alcantara value, as a third piece in a trade. Prospects 4+ years away from a single MLB pitch aren't real prospects where trades are concerned. You could get far more for Workman than either or both of those guys IMO. Workman may never have more value than he does today. Players like Callahan and Buttrey have significantly more value to the Red Sox than they do to other teams. Hence, the Tier 2 ranking. They represent significant financial investment to the team, are viewed as a top talent that is years away and are injury free (to date); therefore their perceived value to the Red Sox is different than someone like Raul Alcantara. You're correct that you could get more for Workman than either of those two, but you have to remember that their current internal value is much higher than their external value. So, the Red Sox won't trade them if they feel like they're getting pennies on the dollar. |
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Post by charliezink16 on Jul 25, 2013 10:55:52 GMT -5
I don't understand why you ranked Swihart in the 3rd tier. Personally, Swihart is a guy I wouldn't even want to give up in a blockbuster deal. The catching talent in the majors right now is very very weak, and there isn't much catching talent coming up in the minors. Austin Hedges is really the only guy who projects to stick at catcher and is making top prospect lists. For those who listened to KLaw when he joined Speier, he stated something along the lines of Swiharts defensive progress being further ahead of schedule than Boston expected. If he continues to progress and turns into an everyday catcher, he would be extremely valuable to this team.
ADD: My disliking towards Salatalamacchia may make this opinion quite biased.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 25, 2013 11:12:39 GMT -5
I would recommend that you try to categorize players as follows: 1st tier - Headliner in a deal for an above-average major league player 2nd tier - 2nd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for an average major league player 3rd tier - 3rd piece in a multi-player trade/headliner in a deal for a borderline major league player 4th tier - Additional trade piece (usually a lottery ticket-type player or a Rule 5-eligible/40-man roster decision 1st tier players - Bogaerts 2nd tier players - Bradley, Cecchini, Webster, RDLR, Owens, Ranaudo 3rd tier players - Barnes, Swihart, Workman, Britton, Marrero, CVaz, Brentz/Wilson (if they weren't hurt) 4th tier lottery tickets - Betts, Margot, Buttrey, Ramos, Lin, Mercedes, Montas, Kukuk, Gomez, Callahan, Mercedes, Almonte, Rijo 4th tier 40-man roster decisions - Almanzar, KDLC, Hassan, JHaze, Huntzinger, Hernandez, Butler/Lavarnway Trying to tie prospects to specific major league players is a fool's errand. I like the idea, and I realize you put it together in reaction to someone else's thread so it's probably not completely thought out in the way you'd do it if you were setting it up yourself, but I think the tiers are incomplete. The who idea of putting together tiers may also be a fools errand though. So many variables. I think your 1st tier is actually a second tier. "Above Average major league player" Shouldn't be the highest tier in my opinion. Then there are different things that aren't taken into account int he system like age of players, years of control, contract, etc. If tier 1 is truly just lumping all above average players so guys like Choo are in the same category as Carlos Gonzalez means there should be a lot more than just Bogaerts in the top tier. Gonzalez is not only a better player, but he's tied up contract wise whereas Choo is a FA, etc. 4 years in age difference. Anyways, I like the idea, I just think we need to refine and agree on a true tier system before we can categorize players appropriately. Sorry, I should probably have improvements before saying it's not good enough. I think on it a bit, but that's my initial reaction to reading the system. |
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