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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 7, 2013 22:59:08 GMT -5
Wow Koji looks good
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 7, 2013 23:03:41 GMT -5
That series was a mess.
But we pulled it out.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 7, 2013 23:05:28 GMT -5
Thank you LOLAstros...made it interesting. Now on to a big series.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 7, 2013 23:06:26 GMT -5
Uehara is awesome.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 7, 2013 23:11:55 GMT -5
This team just doesn't give in. Gotta love it!
My batting order now;
Ellsbury - CF Victorino- RF Pedey - 2B Ortiz - DH Gomes - LF Drew - SS Napoli - 1B Salty - C Bogaerts - 3B
No pressure on the kid. Liberal use of Nava and Carp.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 7, 2013 23:11:55 GMT -5
Just give him a three year extension now. ... Easy there killer
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Post by rangoon82 on Aug 7, 2013 23:20:02 GMT -5
Hang in there, 'Zona!
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Post by marrcus on Aug 7, 2013 23:21:55 GMT -5
Nobody has said Stephen doesn't have talent. It would be nice to have seen it a bit more often, though tonight's bomb was most timely.
This 2/3 series (win) highlighted some weaknesses. I was so impressed with Ortiz going the other way against the shift in the first inning. What a mature intelligent hitter. I wish a few of the other guys could maybe shorten those long looping swings in--key-- rbi situations --occasionally-- and maybe there wouldn't be so many guys left on base.
When Victorino got tossed I would have told the ump that 'you just managed to interject yourself into a pennant race for no reason. I'm freakin short an OF, you.......'
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 7, 2013 23:23:35 GMT -5
Your unfairly blaming Farrell for something he does not control. Dude I thanked you . I am heated about the situation . I wasn't thinking if it was the manager or G.M. Just someone is responsible. You realize I can't tell if it was sarcasm or sincere over the Internet lol
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2013 23:23:43 GMT -5
Stephen Drew (and Jonny Gomes along with Big Papi too) saved the Sox from some embarrassment. They didn't play very well during that series, but Houston's ineptitude allowed the Sox to come away with 2 out of 3, which would be the normal expectation in this series.
And TB is struggling in Arizona, so this looks like it can work out well for the Sox. I do hope the Sox call up Bogaerts soon. I think he could help this lineup and eliminate the one very weak spot on the team.
And with Nava tapering off some recently, I hope to see more of Gomes. I think he can handle RH pitching well enough, and I think Carp needs to see more time at 1b. I'm not necessarily advocating a straight platoon with Napoli, but until Napoli gets his act together - if he does, then Carp has earned more playing time.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 7, 2013 23:24:45 GMT -5
I wish a few of the other guys could maybe shorten those long looping swings in--key-- rbi situations --occasionally-- and maybe there wouldn't be so many guys left on base. Our patience at the plate is one of the reasons we have a good offense. But, there are RBI situations. And, at times I feel we should be a tad more agressive. Tie game 2-2. Ellsbury tonight with a bases loaded takes 1st pitch down the middle and k's looking. Not picking on Ells. We have a bunch of guys who do that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2013 23:27:33 GMT -5
I also forgot - I hated the pinchrunning move by Farrell. I'd take Ortiz's slowness and experience running the bases over putting Drake Britton in harm's way. There was no need for that move. If the Sox tie the game and Ortiz's spot comes up again you have the dropoff to Lavarnway.
I'm surprised Farrell couldn't remember how badly Buchholz's pinchrunning appearance against Texas in 2009 went when he fell down heading home with the tying run. Pitchers are not used to running the bases. It was a dumb decision that could have gotten that kid hurt, and he's been a valuable lefty out of the pen. Fortunately he got away with it and Britton never had to do more than trot around the bases between the walk that advanced him to 2b and the blast that sent him home.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 7, 2013 23:37:40 GMT -5
The Red Sox go against the hottest team in baseball for a 4 game set at their place next. Better get their act together. We are not facing the Braves. Also about Farrell, I am pretty sure the red sox have always consulted the managers about roster management. He doesnt get the final say, but I am pretty sure if he really likes a guy or really thinks a guy is problem then they often use his opinion. I am pretty sure that has a lot to do with why Holt is still here, and I imagine that contributed to Aceves being gone.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 7, 2013 23:42:47 GMT -5
I also forgot - I hated the pinchrunning move by Farrell. I'd take Ortiz's slowness and experience running the bases over putting Drake Britton in harm's way. There was no need for that move. If the Sox tie the game and Ortiz's spot comes up again you have the dropoff to Lavarnway. I'm surprised Farrell couldn't remember how badly Buchholz's pinchrunning appearance against Texas in 2009 went when he fell down heading home with the tying run. Pitchers are not used to running the bases. It was a dumb decision that could have gotten that kid hurt, and he's been a valuable lefty out of the pen. Fortunately he got away with it and Britton never had to do more than trot around the bases between the walk that advanced him to 2b and the blast that sent him home. I loved the idea to pinch run Britton. Its the tying run in the 9th inning, Britton running there significantly increases you odds of winning more than leaving Ortiz in and maybe him getting an at bat in the 11th if its still tied. Now if he was actually in the field and they didn't have Lavarnway on the bench, then maybe its a different story. This was a thousand times smarter than when they pinch ran with Daniel Nava, because Britton is actually athletic.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,015
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 7, 2013 23:57:23 GMT -5
There's so much data in this study, and so many variables and interactions, that I very much trust the results (which were tremendously significant, statistically). I'm sure you probably know this, but I hope you're referring to effect sizes and betas or odd ratios rather p values or other thresholds for 'statistical significance.' It sounds like there is so much data in this study that a very minuscule effect may deemed significant simply based on the fact that your analysis has a ridiculous amount of power. In fact, the regression formula, with its multiple interactions, was complex enough that it defied simple scrutiny. I constructed a bunch of models where I could plug various parameters in and see what output I got. The tiny p values made me trust that I was looking at real phenomena ... but, as I said, the effect of velocity differential was small enough that you would never, ever tinker with a guy's change in order to improve the differential. The other effects are more along the lines of telling you what the upside of a good change will be, depending on the style of the pitcher: hard throwing, strike-throwing, groundball pitchers have a distinct (but IIRC not large) edge over their opposites. What the fixed stylistic parameters can predict is dwarfed by the frequency parameter, which is heavily confounded with quality to begin with, and all of that, of course, doesn't come close to explaining overall effectiveness (I totally forget what the r^2 is and I'm too lazy to look it up!). So it does boil down to: learn to throw the change with the same motion as the FB and learn to command it. The message of the study is a) ignore velocity differential, and b) reverse the conventional wisdom on who might benefit most from a good one. Guys who are hard-throwing, strike-throwing groundball pitchers are probably having a lot of success even without working hard on their change, but settling for a mediocre one is giving up a chance to become elite. (In fact, the study is a good argument for teaching the two-seamer to everyone, and having them throw it about as often as the change.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2013 23:57:59 GMT -5
The Red Sox go against the hottest team in baseball for a 4 game set at their place next. Better get their act together. We are not facing the Braves. Yeah, splitting hairs a bit, but Tigers, Dodgers, and Braves have all been hotter over the past 10, 20, and 30 games. Helped that they were facing Minnesota (2x), the Mets, and the White Sox in their last four series. Did take 5 of 7 from Tigers and O's prior to that though. Sal Perez is out with a concussion right now, which helps.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,015
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2013 0:13:23 GMT -5
At least Carp didn't strike out. Grounded into one double play and another that should have been. Lucky we're not down 2-1. Scoring rules stipulate that a hitter be charged with a GDP not just for the conventional "force double play," but for a "reverse force double play" where the defense elects to take the out at 1B first. So Mike Carp is now the answer to a trivia question: which MLB players have hit into an inning-ending GDP that scored a run? It can't have happened too often (and I bet many fans would think it impossible).
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 8, 2013 0:41:54 GMT -5
At least Carp didn't strike out. Grounded into one double play and another that should have been. Lucky we're not down 2-1. Scoring rules stipulate that a hitter be charged with a GDP not just for the conventional "force double play," but for a "reverse force double play" where the defense elects to take the out at 1B first. So Mike Carp is now the answer to a trivia question: which MLB players have hit into an inning-ending GDP that scored a run? It can't have happened too often (and I bet many fans would think it impossible). That one had me scratching my head till you explained it. Once the force is off the run counts as long as the guy on third reaches home before the third out gets made. Subtle. Coming to you from the great northwest
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Post by jmei on Aug 8, 2013 1:01:30 GMT -5
Under-the-radar performance: Tazawa with two perfect innings of relief (with two strikeouts) on just 17 pitches. If he gets it back in gear, the bullpen has a real chance to thrive by the time the postseason arrives.
I also just simply cannot understand how anyone can think this offense is anything but elite. Oh no, they hit poorly with RISP for a game! They aren't moving runners over! SS, 3B, C, 1B, RF, and LF are all black holes! Come the **** on. This team had -20- baserunners tonight and had multiple baserunners every inning but the 8th. No regular other than the blahtoon at 3B hits below league-average for their position. They're seventh in the league with RISP, fifth with men on base, and sixth in high-leverage situations. Read a ****ing book about variance and small sample sizes and stop complaining that the offense is overrated every time they inexplicably don't score enough runs for a game or leave a few runners on.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 8, 2013 5:33:57 GMT -5
Stephen Drew is 4 points behind Mike Napoli in OPS.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 8, 2013 6:09:50 GMT -5
Steven Drew and the Diamondbacks! Let's hope KC gets too cocky (and James Shields has 'intestinal turmoil').
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 8, 2013 7:12:58 GMT -5
Stephen Drew is 4 points behind Mike Napoli in OPS. Also, only 8 points behind Pedroia. He's got it up to 779. After a 5/42 start. Which even the Drew haters have to admit was because of a short rehab coming off the concussion injury which caused him to miss nearly all of spring training. JJ Hardy despite his 19hr has an OPS of 724. Drew is playing himself into contract extension talks. Publicly, our front office says Xander is a shortstop. I wonder if they think that privately. Drew's coming/leaving will answer that question.
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Post by feez732 on Aug 8, 2013 7:32:17 GMT -5
To add to what Jmei said, Salty and Drew are 28 and 26 pts respectively over the major league average in wOBA. That's independent of position. Aside from the (hopefully temporary) 3b platoon and the replacement back-up catcher, Victorino is the player on the team with the worst wOBA and he's still 21 pts over league average. This lineup team is stacked.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 8, 2013 7:36:27 GMT -5
Publicly, our front office says Xander is a shortstop. I wonder if they think that privately. Drew's coming/leaving will answer that question. Isn't the front office's belief that Bogey is a SS the reason they traded Iggy? I think the real question should be ...... Is Drew playing himself into a QO? Several teams need a SS and it would be nice to get draft picks for Drew and Ellsbury.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 8, 2013 7:49:45 GMT -5
Isn't the front office's belief that Bogey is a SS the reason they traded Iggy? It just means Iglesias wasn't high on their list of players they'd like at shortstop next year. Could be that they'd really like to bring Drew back on a reasonable deal, but failing that, they'd still rather have Bogaerts at short over Iglesias. In other words, we can assume that Iglesias was their third or fourth choice at the position, but we don't know what their first, second and possibly third choices are. I still like Drew at short and Bogaerts at third next year. At this point, WMB's offensive ceiling is pretty close to the .249/.339 /.439 line that Drew is putting up right now, and the Drew/Xander left side is going to be better defensively than Xander/WMB.
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