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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 28, 2013 22:36:29 GMT -5
I think Bradley hasn't made a strong case to be a starting OF for the Sox next year. I hope the Sox re-sign Ellsbury. I have seen this said several times and I have to wonder what exactly are people hoping to see? As a 23 year old in AAA Bradley has posted a .276/.376/.478 triple slash with an excellent walk rate, a decent k rate, plus plus defense in center field, and above average speed. Team has only Victorino as the only CF option is the problem if JBJ proves to be not ready is the thing, all the others are corner OF/DH/1b types. If JBJ showed some struggles early on, the team wouldn't want to even use him as a bench player as that would hinder his development and we have seen some injury issues with Victorino in 2013. Hamstring, back. I see Boston at least looking at a AAAA type they could stash away with extensive CF experience who is better than what they currently have at Pawtucket. The perfect scenario would be for Oakland to clumsily look to save money and decline their 7.5m team option for next year.. Would love to get him back.. That much for 2 years (2/15, even 2/20m) would be the best sign they could make this offseason.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2013 23:22:20 GMT -5
Oh no, the Red Sox only have an accomplished veteran (on pace for 5+ fWAR) and a top 30 prospect to fill in at CF!
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 28, 2013 23:29:28 GMT -5
Oh no, the Red Sox only have an accomplished veteran (on pace for 5+ fWAR) and a top 30 prospect to fill in at CF! Haha Jmei, I gotcha.. Once again I didn't fully explain my intentions.. Have posted multiple times here that Victorino was the best sign FA they made last year and the team should count on him as the RF next year. Less running + less ground to cover. Sign Crisp as insurance, also as a *4th* OF as he will be able to garner 400+ AB, just like he always managed to before when the team had him, even if JBJ shows he is indeed ready. That would allow the team to move some of the surplus corner OF/1b/DH types they have.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2013 18:20:58 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 5, 2013 18:31:14 GMT -5
I'd like to see us re-sign Ellsbury. Not at "any" cost, but I'd like to see him back if possible.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 5, 2013 19:15:02 GMT -5
Don't see 100m coming from Boston for Ells. Do see them going over 75m, which is more than 5/75m that I even think is more than he is worth even.
Texas? NYY? Those are my likely destinations if the bidding goes over 75-80m.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2013 19:23:37 GMT -5
I think you're kidding yourself if you think Ellsbury is signing for close to B.J. Upton money (5/$75m). The real question is how much higher you are willing to go.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 5, 2013 22:13:34 GMT -5
Don't see 100m coming from Boston for Ells. Do see them going over 75m, which is more than 5/75m that I even think is more than he is worth even. Texas? NYY? Those are my likely destinations if the bidding goes over 75-80m. Agree. I think Ells ends up in NY and maybe Drew too. More left-handed hitters to take advantage of RF. With A-rod, Mariano and Pettitte gone, they can afford both of these guys.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 5, 2013 23:12:18 GMT -5
Don't see 100m coming from Boston for Ells. Do see them going over 75m, which is more than 5/75m that I even think is more than he is worth even. Texas? NYY? Those are my likely destinations if the bidding goes over 75-80m. Agree. I think Ells ends up in NY and maybe Drew too. More left-handed hitters to take advantage of RF. With A-rod, Mariano and Pettitte gone, they can afford both of these guys. But they need to resign Cano. Texas seems like a possible destination.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 5, 2013 23:21:41 GMT -5
The biggest thing for the Yankees is not only Cano, but also if A-rod is indeed suspended for under the whole season, does his salary still count towards the luxury tax. Because if it does, they won't have much room to play with.
They need to sign Cano and the majority of their starting rotation. Assuming Jeter picks up his option, they'll have 7 players under contract for $132M
That doesn't take into account a starting 2B, starting C, OF, and at least 3 starting pitchers (aside from CC and Nova)
The only real $ they are going to have could be A-rods salary if they don't want to lock up even more long term issues
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 6, 2013 2:44:50 GMT -5
I think Ellsbury gets around $100 mil / 6 years and he may well be worth it. He's significantly better than Crawford defensively, has a higher base stealing percentage particularly this year which really pays off in winning small ball games and a proven major market lead off guy who even has some fan appeal with the chicks. He's one of those guys Luchinno wants to sign for marketing reasons and the baseball ops see has some hidden value as well. No off the field problems or hints of them even. No signs of slowing down and relatively young with decent pop potentially if he can get back anywhere near 2011. If the guy played in Detroit he would have scored 120 runs by now.
What is kind of amazing is that if you look closely Victorino's year has been pretty similar in value. Ellsbury WAR = 5.5. Victorino's WAR = 5.4. Victorino does so many little things well and has been a huge bargain for this team ($26.8 mil so far this year ).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 6, 2013 2:46:42 GMT -5
It wouldn't surprise me to see Ellsbury top a $120-$130 mil deal. That's why I just don't see us retaining him but we are going to miss his overall contributions to this team.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 6, 2013 9:07:43 GMT -5
I think you're kidding yourself if you think Ellsbury is signing for close to B.J. Upton money (5/$75m). The real question is how much higher you are willing to go. Not much (5m tops) It's why the team has his replacement already in JBJ and why they don't need to go crazy in the bidding. Ells could probably hit 15-20 HR at Yankee stadium (like Damon did) and everyone can count on Boras pointing that out as soon as the season is over to the media and to Hankie and Hal. We'll see when the bidding for Cano gets around 150-175m if the Yanks don't redirect focus to Ells instead and choose to save a cool 50-75m+ and grab Ells 1st.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 6, 2013 9:12:37 GMT -5
I think Ellsbury gets around $100 mil / 6 years and he may well be worth it. He's significantly better than Crawford defensively, has a higher base stealing percentage particularly this year which really pays off in winning small ball games and a proven major market lead off guy who even has some fan appeal with the chicks. He's one of those guys Luchinno wants to sign for marketing reasons and the baseball ops see has some hidden value as well. No off the field problems or hints of them even. No signs of slowing down and relatively young with decent pop potentially if he can get back anywhere near 2011. If the guy played in Detroit he would have scored 120 runs by now. What is kind of amazing is that if you look closely Victorino's year has been pretty similar in value. Ellsbury WAR = 5.5. Victorino's WAR = 5.4. Victorino does so many little things well and has been a huge bargain for this team ($26.8 mil so far this year ). Good point about Victorino - he has been a pleasant surprise. But as far as who the better defender is between Crawford pre-FA and Jacoby now (CF/LF discussion aside): Ellsbury (UZR/150): 2011 - 16.1 2012 - 9.8 2013 - 14.5 Crawford (UZR/150): 2008 - 22.4 2009 - 18.9 2010 - 20.3 For Jacoby to match Crawford's pre-FA year in terms of WAR, he would need to compile 1.8 additional WAR before the end of the season. Ellsbury is good - but don't forget just how good Crawford used to be. The only reason that his contract was looked at as being high at the time was because a large part of his value was based on defense and baserunning.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 6, 2013 9:24:13 GMT -5
There is a real disconnect in some of the Ellsbury discussion. Nobody who thinks the Red Sox can't/won't keep Ellsbury thinks that the Red Sox won't miss him, especially in the first couple years. I don't think there's any need to keep arguing that the guy is good at baseball.
However, I reject any argument about him being worth more because he is "marketable." Winning baseball makes players marketable, rather than the other way 'round. Kevin Youkilis is sort of hideous-looking, and there were just as many ladies buying his jerseys as Ellsbury ones, based on my highly scientific survey of sometimes counting when I went to games. Ellsbury's marketability is tied entirely to his (noteworthy) ability to help his team win baseball games.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 6, 2013 10:21:54 GMT -5
There is a real disconnect in some of the Ellsbury discussion. Nobody who thinks the Red Sox can't/won't keep Ellsbury thinks that the Red Sox won't miss him, especially in the first couple years. I don't think there's any need to keep arguing that the guy is good at baseball. However, I reject any argument about him being worth more because he is "marketable." Winning baseball makes players marketable, rather than the other way 'round. Kevin Youkilis is sort of hideous-looking, and there were just as many ladies buying his jerseys as Ellsbury ones, based on my highly scientific survey of sometimes counting when I went to games. Ellsbury's marketability is tied entirely to his (noteworthy) ability to help his team win baseball games. There is -0- doubt that Ells will be missed in Boston if he leaves and probably the 1st 3 years, maybe just the 1st 2, but how many more years will the team have to pay for just to retain his services? He doesn't offer anything else, other than his legs. This is one of those types of players any team that signs him is easy to spot/scout and a wise team will never go beyond 1 terrible (5y) or 1 bad (4y) and a terrible year for such player. Boras, in all liklihood isn't going to allow Ellsbury to sign anything less than a 5y deal. He got burned with Bourne last year, a guy like Ells and is going to make up for it this winter.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 6, 2013 11:31:19 GMT -5
Regarding Crawford's defense, the whole LF/CF issue is extremely salient. They are incomparable. Teams put defenders like Manny Ramirez in LF for a reason and there are a lot of bad fielding left fielders out there. Crawford couldn't even start in CF for his team. That should say it all right there. The data is incomparable. Even absurdly so.
I know it's statistically insignificant SSS but Ellsbury's career UZR/150 in LF is 22.6. In RF it is 24.0.
And before you criticize the small sample size citing just really think for a moment how incomparable comparing left field UZR/150 to CF UZR/150. Let me make it simple: Ellsbury is clearly a better defender before his big FA year than Crawford was before he signed with Boston. There is little doubt about that.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 6, 2013 11:39:09 GMT -5
Who is the leadoff hitter if Ells goes? Pedroia doesn't like to do it. Victorino's OBP won't be high enough. Bradley is unproven. Could be a platoon with Nava and somebody else vs. lefties, but I don't see that guy yet. Then again, if they sign Ells, or Choo...
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 6, 2013 11:41:08 GMT -5
I don't think there is much doubt that sex sells either. Not saying Youk wasn't hugely favored but I would say it is for a much different reason. There is little doubt that sex appeal sells. Look at the David Beckham phenomena. The guy hasn't been a good player for 7-8 years and he's still pulling down huge contracts.
Youk and Ellsbury have completely different appeals from a marketing standpoint. I would agree that Youk was a bigger draw because we admired him grinding out AB, playing hurt and his dirt dog mentality. Ellsbury appeals from a completely different perspective with the excitement he generates on the bases, his athleticism and an occasional highlight play. Each perspective contributes to the overall marketing appeal of a team, just like both the styling and color contribute to the marketability of a car.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 6, 2013 11:49:58 GMT -5
Who is the leadoff hitter if Ells goes? Pedroia doesn't like to do it. Victorino's OBP won't be high enough. Bradley is unproven. Could be a platoon with Nava and somebody else vs. lefties, but I don't see that guy yet. Then again, if they sign Ells, or Choo... Victorino's OBP this year is .351 compared to Ells .355 and career it's Victorino at .342 to Ells at .350. OBP isn't the issue, it's losing the 50+ SB.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 13:38:36 GMT -5
I don't think that's clear in the CBA and it's something the commissioner will have to rule on once A-Rod runs through his appeals. In my mind it should count towards the luxury tax even if the Yankees aren't paying the money. I'd think the former owner of the Brewers might see it the same way.
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Post by ikonos on Sept 6, 2013 13:57:56 GMT -5
Who is the leadoff hitter if Ells goes? Pedroia doesn't like to do it. Victorino's OBP won't be high enough. Bradley is unproven. Could be a platoon with Nava and somebody else vs. lefties, but I don't see that guy yet. Then again, if they sign Ells, or Choo... Victorino's OBP this year is .351 compared to Ells .355 and career it's Victorino at .342 to Ells at .350. OBP isn't the issue, it's losing the 50+ SB. Victorino has 20 this year, we miss 30+ SB. Victorino has better arm and that saves some runs. Reduces 1B-3B runs potentially getting pitchers in to fewer high leverage situations. Every prospect including JBJ, Bogaerts are unproven unless given the opportunity with significant playing time. They ran up the MiLB ladder at a faster clip because Sox management believes in their ability to take on those challenges. If we need a veteran like Coco (I doubt he will come back to be put in to the same situation as it was before he left) for JBJ, do we also need a veteran for Bogaerts? Yes we need some bench for OF and IF but getting them solely because your prospect is unproven is not trusting your evaluations of those prospects.
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 14:30:45 GMT -5
It should be no surprise that Youk jerseys sold well with the ladies, why did you think he was shaking his booty every at-bat. Besides, experienced women know the value of proven winners over pretty boys.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 6, 2013 14:54:03 GMT -5
It should be no surprise that Youk jerseys sold well with the ladies, why did you think he was shaking his booty every at-bat. Besides, experienced women know the value of proven winners over pretty boys. That is too funny. The "Werner Klemperer" look came in style to late for him to enjoy. I apologize for putting the "like" on wrong post initially.. Is there a way to remove it from mine now? HAHA sorry people..
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Post by pedroiaesque on Sept 6, 2013 15:30:40 GMT -5
There are two ways to answer this question: 1) what do you think the Red Sox will do, and 2) what would you want the Sox to do. My take on #1?
I'd start by assuming Ells is gone. Best guess is that ANY offer to Ells begins with Upton's 5/75 contract and goes up from there. There's no clear indication what the Sox will go to, but I'm pretty sure someone will offer significantly more than them. The most likely scenario is then to give Bradley a shot at the job in CF, but the Sox haven't looked like they want to just hand over any job to a rookie without a challenge, so I imagine they'll have a solid contingency.
I think their moves will depend in part on how the Sox value Nava's defense in RF. They seem sold on him as a contributor on offense, so the question becomes do you trust him to fill in in RF if Bradley isn't ready for prime time and Victorino needs to shift back to CF for a while. If the answer is yes, then I could see them looking at some buy-low candidates to compete in ST, with their current crop of upper level prospects getting a chance at the 4th/5th OF spot.
If the feeling is that Nava is only a LF/1B (or that his offense is suspect), then the best move may be Nelson Cruz if he'll take a short contract to rebuild his value.
Ultimately, the answer will be tied into the 1B solution. If they have to sacrifice power at 1B, then I think they need to get someone for the outfield.
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