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jimoh
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Posts: 4,122
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Post by jimoh on Sept 9, 2013 20:10:52 GMT -5
Actually, the only point I was making was that an injury in the final month of the season before he hits free agency shouldn't tell them anything new at all, assuming he'll heal from it fully over the offseason. Again, in 8 years with the organization, there should not be much that the team doesn't already know about Ellsbury. But teams who have not been dealing with him for 8 years, and don't know as much info about whether he has or has not been willing to play in pain, might be more cautious in how many millions they are willing to commit to him, no?
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 9, 2013 20:15:06 GMT -5
No. Everyone knows everything they're going to know about Ellsbury. Also, being willing to play through pain isn't necessarily a positive. A healthy Jacoby Ellsbury is still better than a healthy Jackie Bradley, but Bradley is almost certainly better than a broken Ellsbury. Being willing to play through pain gets built up, but being upfront and honest about your injuries to your own team is a far more valuable trait.
EDIT: Just to clarify here. The ability to not get hurt is a skill, and a definite positive. Getting hurt and playing anyway is not. It's often stupid and counterproductive.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 10, 2013 5:44:53 GMT -5
I wasn't praising the ability to play in pain if the pain is indicative of a problem that needs to be dealt with or will get worse. Not all pain is like that. Hiding injuries is a big negative, I agree.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 10, 2013 11:13:39 GMT -5
No. Everyone knows everything they're going to know about Ellsbury. Also, being willing to play through pain isn't necessarily a positive. A healthy Jacoby Ellsbury is still better than a healthy Jackie Bradley, but Bradley is almost certainly better than a broken Ellsbury. Being willing to play through pain gets built up, but being upfront and honest about your injuries to your own team is a far more valuable trait. EDIT: Just to clarify here. The ability to not get hurt is a skill, and a definite positive. Getting hurt and playing anyway is not. It's often stupid and counterproductive. There is a distinct different to being willing to play with pain versus being able to play well with pain. Some guys get sore and they play, but production drops because it affects their swing, whereas some guys can fight through the pain and still be productive. Each injury is a little different too. Are baseball players whimps or is their game just that much more precise that a small change due to an injury greatly affects them? I think it's more the latter. When you have less than a second to react to and hit a pitch then a small hand injury can affect you no matter how tough you are. Not all hand injuries are the same and shouldn't be looked at as such. there are a lot of little parts that have different functions within someone's wrist and hands that can affect you differently. I could argue the Pedrioa has hurt the team more than he's helped the team, by not taking time off to heal up.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 10, 2013 14:21:06 GMT -5
Pedroia helps the team enormously just by being on the field. If he had taken time off to heal, he might have hit more HRs and his BA might be 10 or 20 points higher, but I doubt the team's record would be any different. It might be worse, depending on how long he was out.
The thing with Pedroia is trying to stop him from doing bone-head things like sliding into first base. I thought everyone knew that a player is faster running through the bag at 1B than sliding into it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 14:59:15 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox would be interested in David Murphy and trading Carp. Murphy is coming off a bad year but has a broader skill set. Carp will be arb eligible, coming off a year with a huge BABIP and is arb eligible for the first time. Would someone give you a prospect you like for Carp? How much extra would Murphy cost?
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 11, 2013 15:00:02 GMT -5
Pedroia helps the team enormously just by being on the field. If he had taken time off to heal, he might have hit more HRs and his BA might be 10 or 20 points higher, but I doubt the team's record would be any different. It might be worse, depending on how long he was out. The thing with Pedroia is trying to stop him from doing bone-head things like sliding into first base. I thought everyone knew that a player is faster running through the bag at 1B than sliding into it. Nobody helps a team enormously simply by being "on the field". He had a rough July, but other than that he's been pretty good all year so nothing to quibble about this season, but in previous seasons he's valiantly tried to tough it out only to see his production drop off big time.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2013 1:57:29 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox would be interested in David Murphy and trading Carp. Murphy is coming off a bad year but has a broader skill set. Carp will be arb eligible, coming off a year with a huge BABIP and is arb eligible for the first time. Would someone give you a prospect you like for Carp? How much extra would Murphy cost? Can we stop this nonsense? He has a high BABIP because he's hit the ball ridiculously hard. It's true that hitting a ball that hard that consistently is not sustainable -- you can argue that in a weird way, his lack of regular PT has not afforded him an opportunity to slump. But it is an indication that he's been tremendously good, not lucky. He has 1.0 extra FB single and 5.2 extra FB 2B and 3B. His line drive BABIP is neutral. He has 0.3 extra GB 1B (a low figure for a guy with his power, actually), and 3.0 extra GB doubles, but I think that hitting the ball down the line is largely a skill. He's hitting .314 / .374 / .564. Without luck, I think it's something like .303 / .365 / .543. Unlike BABIP, XBH per balls in play correlates very strongly with HR per contact and hence is very much a measure of hardness of contact. I'm not sure why you'd want to "sell high" on a guy who ranked 36th out of 333 MLB players in HRC (minimum 200 PA) and 1st in XBH-BIP.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 12, 2013 5:17:19 GMT -5
Carps potential value fr outweighs what someone would give up. Do you listen just in case someone looks at his previous prospect status and the results this year and hoses to buy in? Sure, but this isn't a scrub from no where hitting well. Guy had skills and isn't hat old. Remember Edwin Encaracion? He broke out after years of not fulfilling his potential.
I'd have no problem with Carp starting for this team in left next year with Gomes being his RHH compliment. It's actually how I'd prefer they do things. I'd rather him then a guy like Granderson.
Carlos Beltran does interest me a bit at right price.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,122
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Post by jimoh on Sept 12, 2013 5:46:29 GMT -5
Carps potential value fr outweighs what someone would give up. Do you listen just in case someone looks at his previous prospect status and the results this year and hoses to buy in? Sure, but this isn't a scrub from no where hitting well. Guy had skills and isn't hat old. Remember Edwin Encaracion? He broke out after years of not fulfilling his potential. I'd have no problem with Carp starting for this team in left next year with Gomes being his RHH compliment. It's actually how I'd prefer they do things. I'd rather him then a guy like Granderson. Carlos Beltran does interest me a bit at right price. Not 1b?
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 12, 2013 8:07:40 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox would be interested in David Murphy and trading Carp. Murphy is coming off a bad year but has a broader skill set. Carp will be arb eligible, coming off a year with a huge BABIP and is arb eligible for the first time. Would someone give you a prospect you like for Carp? How much extra would Murphy cost? Can we stop this nonsense? He has a high BABIP because he's hit the ball ridiculously hard. It's true that hitting a ball that hard that consistently is not sustainable -- you can argue that in a weird way, his lack of regular PT has not afforded him an opportunity to slump. But it is an indication that he's been tremendously good, not lucky. He has 1.0 extra FB single and 5.2 extra FB 2B and 3B. His line drive BABIP is neutral. He has 0.3 extra GB 1B (a low figure for a guy with his power, actually), and 3.0 extra GB doubles, but I think that hitting the ball down the line is largely a skill. He's hitting .314 / .374 / .564. Without luck, I think it's something like .303 / .365 / .543. Unlike BABIP, XBH per balls in play correlates very strongly with HR per contact and hence is very much a measure of hardness of contact. I'm not sure why you'd want to "sell high" on a guy who ranked 36th out of 333 MLB players in HRC (minimum 200 PA) and 1st in XBH-BIP. I have always hated the seeming reverence for BABIP as if there is an absolute baseline for all players and any deviation suggests some future regression to the mean. I did not know that there was an XBH per balls in play stat but given that it is computed, what you say makes a lot of sense.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 8:39:27 GMT -5
Can we stop this nonsense? He has a high BABIP because he's hit the ball ridiculously hard. It's true that hitting a ball that hard that consistently is not sustainable -- you can argue that in a weird way, his lack of regular PT has not afforded him an opportunity to slump. But it is an indication that he's been tremendously good, not lucky. [snip] Unlike BABIP, XBH per balls in play correlates very strongly with HR per contact and hence is very much a measure of hardness of contact. I'm not sure why you'd want to "sell high" on a guy who ranked 36th out of 333 MLB players in HRC (minimum 200 PA) and 1st in XBH-BIP. The point of BABIP regression is not just that he got a bunch of lucky bloops that fell in for a hit, but that we should regress one of the stats with the least year-to-year correlation to a guy's career average. The same applies for XHB-BIP. I've posted this link before, but the two stats you're citing for Carp's sustainable success have the lowest year-to-year correlation of any offensive stat out there. Even if he "earned" the BABIP/XHB-BIP by hitting the ball hard, history shows that there's a very good chance that he'll struggle to repeat it next year, and it appears to be a very unsustainable marker of success.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,122
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Post by jimoh on Sept 12, 2013 15:48:14 GMT -5
The point of BABIP regression is not just that he got a bunch of lucky bloops that fell in for a hit, but that we should regress one of the stats with the least year-to-year correlation to a guy's career average. The same applies for XHB-BIP. I've posted this link before, but the two stats you're citing for Carp's sustainable success have the lowest year-to-year correlation of any offensive stat out there. Even if he "earned" the BABIP/XHB-BIP by hitting the ball hard, history shows that there's a very good chance that he'll struggle to repeat it next year, and it appears to be a very unsustainable marker of success. To what extent does your notion of Carp's history take into account his 2012 bad shoulder? Isn't that a crucial part of hitting the ball hard?
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 15:57:49 GMT -5
He had a .336 BABIP and a .273/.334/.444 line from 2009-11, albeit only in 419 PAs, which I'm not sure is enough to tell us anything. My only point is that if we're projecting him for 2014, we need to regress Carp's 2013 line to a more normal BABIP, even if he "earned" that BABIP by hitting balls hard and hitting a lot of line drives. For whatever reason, those factors don't seem to hold up very well year-to-year.
For the record, I think Mike Carp is a very good player who very well could be an above-average starting 1B for the Red Sox next year. I'm just trying to pump the breaks a little in terms of expectations.
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