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Letting Ellsbury and Drew go...Is it worth it for the picks?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 13, 2013 23:03:06 GMT -5
Here we are 4 games up in the AL East. A cohesive team which seems to be on target to make the playoffs and with a little luck getting a strong Buchholz back, capable of making a run at the WS title. So what do we do next winter, no matter what the outcome this year?
1) Assuming that Drew and Ellsbury warrant QO at the end of the year, do we try to keep this team together for another run by signing these guys? At least with Ellsbury we can probably expect a performance drop with JBJ (I would think ). Do we want to go for the short term goal of winning next year by keeping the core together and bringing these guys back?
2) Under the same assumption, do we let Drew and Ellsbury go for the 2 compensatory picks, positioning us for the future and possibly deal with the short term dip in performance? Use the money saved for other specific options.
Conventional wisdom would probably say take the picks but we are in the middle of a championship run. It's not an easy decision. I'll give my analysis in a future post.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Aug 13, 2013 23:19:02 GMT -5
Isn't there a thread about QO's already? I would assume this would go in there.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 13, 2013 23:25:30 GMT -5
I think this should be kept open so that the Ellsbury discussion is in one thread, it has been overflowing to other threads.
As for the questions pose. I don't think they should bring Ellsbury back unless its a 3 year deal. I don't see how that happens.
Drew well I believe X will be ready to go for next year from the get go but if they want to hold him back and have some Middlebrooks insurance then fine on a short term deal.
Also whether they win or lose in the playoffs is irrelevant in my opinion. You don't build your teams out of sentimentalism.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2013 23:28:18 GMT -5
Isn't there a thread about QO's already? I would assume this would go in there. This is less a thread about QOs and more a thread about whether and under what conditions would you re-sign Ellsbury and/or Drew.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 13, 2013 23:28:24 GMT -5
Over the course of a full year Drew vs Xander I'll take Xander so that's actually an upgrade even taking into account some potential growing pains.
JBJ will not put up Ellsbury type numbers but he'll give you better defense and at a fraction of the cost with that money going other places. This is actually a dream type of transition that rarely happens where we have a replacement at the right position at the right time.
I have a feeling we may be a little underwhelmed with what we get for comp pick(s) but it'll be most of us overreacting and not looking at the true value of the pick and slot money we spend elsewhere. That's more of a prediction there though.
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Post by steveinma on Aug 14, 2013 0:36:51 GMT -5
I don't see how we could justify making a $14MM offer to Drew, just in the hopes he doesn't take it. He's a solid defensive SS, but his hitting has been generally poor, then hot, then cold again. Outside of a recent clutch 3 weeks, he's been a frustrating .230 guy. I'd be afraid that Boras would advise Drew to use the QO as a second pillow contract. And with the risk of his accepting the QO, also comes the risk of him blocking the ascension of Xander Bogaerts to the MLB on a full-time basis. I don't think its worth those risks. I'd be dedicated to letting XB take over next season, and show us what he's got.
Ellsbury is a different story. He's going to command at least a contract on the order of CarGo (6-7 years / $80MM+), and maybe more. Despite his elite (but low power) performance, I'm ready to say, let him walk. I realize that Ells has outrageously good numbers, like +35 runs above replacement level. He might continue at that level for 2 or 3 more years. I doubt he will, beyond that range. I say, make him the QO, take the comp pick, and get JBJ in there. We'll make up for any drop off in performance from CF in other areas. Once Cecchini makes it to the Bigs, he'll fill some of the voids that Ells left behind.
We now have a farm system the likes of which I have dreamed about for 2 decades. And unlike the conclusions of some myopic national sports reporters, I aver the quality runs all the way down into the rookie leagues, not just the upper levels. I'm content, or maybe the better word is thrilled, to let these kids work their way into our major league line up, rather than hang on to older performers and spend big money on aged free agents. There's no doubt that the objective is to win championships. I think we can do that with a mostly young, controllable, homegrown team over the next decade.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2013 2:34:54 GMT -5
It seems to me that before JBJ gets the CF job, he should show he can hit in the show. So far, he hasn't. I think a number of people here underestimate Ellsbury's contributions to this team - this year's team. JBJ is not as good as Ellsbury when Ellsbury is at full throttle.
The talent level in MLB right now is odd. There are many very good players. The competitive balance in both leagues is closer than I can ever recall. However, the number of truly elite players is lower than it used to be. I don't think it is very smart to give up on a close to elite player, as Ellsbury is. They are just too hard to replace.
I would try hard to re-sign Ellsbury. The comp pick is not an adequate alternative.
I have not been a big fan of Drew, but his performance since the All Star break has been quite good, probably good enough, if it continues, to net him a decent contract next year. But not with the Sox. I was opposed to making a QO to him, but I'm wavering on that.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 14, 2013 6:01:05 GMT -5
I don't see how we could justify making a $14MM offer to Drew, just in the hopes he doesn't take it. He's a solid defensive SS, but his hitting has been generally poor, then hot, then cold again. Outside of a recent clutch 3 weeks, he's been a frustrating .230 guy. Over the whole season, Drew has produced 107 wRC+. That's above average for any major league player, let alone for a shortstop. Out of shortstops with at least 250 PA this year, Drew ranks 9th of 32 in wRC+ (behind guys like Peralta, who has been suspended, and Iggy, whose offensive production has come back to earth big time).
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Post by bighead on Aug 14, 2013 7:37:58 GMT -5
Also whether they win or lose in the playoffs is irrelevant in my opinion. You don't build your teams out of sentimentalism. Couldn't agree more on this point. I think these types of decisions should be weighed based on each situation but this one is a slam dunk for me. 1. The farm system is stocked with young players on the verge of the ML and these two positions have (in theory anyway) replacements lined up for next season. 2. Both of these guys are Boras clients meaning premium AAV and as many years as Boras can get from a team. 3. Both of those contracts will lock up the wrong side of 30 for whatever team is willing to make a deal. 4. Both have injury histories. They all seem to be collisions but these injuries cost them significant time.I don't want to go as far as calling either of them fragile but maybe just jinxed in that area. Give both of them the QO. No way Ellsbury would even consider that or a contract of reasonable length. You would think that Boras' first instinct is to go to makrket with one of his clients. Drew maybe not but that is a moot point for me. If he takes it you can keep him around as insurance for SS and when Xander is ready to take the job fulltime move him to a team needing a SS for prospects while eating some $$. People were already discussing doing just that this year. I think some of your own FAs should be resigned but these two were both rentals. Yes, Ellsbury was a rental even though the Sox drafted and developed him. The Sox really need to pick and choose who they want to lock up to long term contracts too and for me, these aren't the guys. Lastly I think what the Sox need to do right now is backfill their system. They need to try to draft, sign and develop the NEXT wave of prospects. It seemed that at the end of the Epstein era there was a gap in home grown players whether it was due to disappointments or trades. It would be ideal if there was a fairly regular flow of prospects knocking on the door. Obviously there will be times when there are less and times when there are more like now but they need somebody to provide depth, replace FAs that the Sox don't want to sign and/or serve as trade bait each year or two. Easier said than done but it is a lot harder when you are resigning guys like Ellsbury and Drew.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 14, 2013 7:41:41 GMT -5
I don't see how we could justify making a $14MM offer to Drew, just in the hopes he doesn't take it. He's a solid defensive SS, but his hitting has been generally poor, then hot, then cold again. Outside of a recent clutch 3 weeks, he's been a frustrating .230 guy. Over the whole season, Drew has produced 107 wRC+. That's above average for any major league player, let alone for a shortstop. Out of shortstops with at least 250 PA this year, Drew ranks 9th of 32 in wRC+ (behind guys like Peralta, who has been suspended, and Iggy, whose offensive production has come back to earth big time). I hope that Stephen Drew can keep producing close to the clip he has been on since the break for 2 reasons: 1) it will greatly improve our chances in the play-offs, 2) we could more easily make a qualifying offer. Most of the season it has been hard watching most of Drew's at-bats, but he has played quite well lately. I really have appreciated his consistency in the field. With that all said, I would offer the QO if he finished well and he understood that Xander was going to be deeply involved for us at short in 2014 also. That way, if Drew accepted there would be no misunderstanding of him having a slightly different role for one year. With this being made clear, I doubt him and Boras would be quick to accept (even if it meant $14M for that one year). It certainly could be worse things for us having Middlebrooks, Xander, and Drew to man the left side next year. Here's hoping Drew finishes strong (for several reasons)!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 14, 2013 7:43:43 GMT -5
I don't see how we could justify making a $14MM offer to Drew, just in the hopes he doesn't take it. He's a solid defensive SS, but his hitting has been generally poor, then hot, then cold again. Outside of a recent clutch 3 weeks, he's been a frustrating .230 guy. Over the whole season, Drew has produced 107 wRC+. That's above average for any major league player, let alone for a shortstop. Out of shortstops with at least 250 PA this year, Drew ranks 9th of 32 in wRC+ (behind guys like Peralta, who has been suspended, and Iggy, whose offensive production has come back to earth big time). Which is why Drew will likely not accept the QO and look for a multi-year deal. Remember, he is a Boras guy that just wants the most money possible. Same with Ellsbury. I think we offer Ellsbury, Drew and Salty the QO. Ellsbury and Drew we let walk and pick up two comp picks.
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Post by jbberlo22 on Aug 14, 2013 8:01:19 GMT -5
I dont believe Drew would take another 1 year contract with how well he is playing, having boras, and his injury history but assuming he does unlike others here i would not mind at all letting him have the job for a couple months and wait to call up bogaerts until after the "big two" ( i forget the name just remember it having 2 in it. This is what the rays waited for before callling up myers this year) to keep his rookie contract a little longer ( i think). Drew would be a good trade chip for a contendor in need of a shortstop and if we eat a few mil we could get a B level contract for sure.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Aug 14, 2013 8:10:11 GMT -5
I don't feel this is much of a debate. You make the QO to both, and Ellsbury easily turns it down. He will be offered a 7 yr deal from some team, which will knock the Red Sox out of that race (which is a good thing in my opinion), because all these ideas of "I'm ok with keeping Ellsbury on a 3-4 yr deal" are just as silly as last year's comments about signing Josh Hamilton to a 1-3yr deal. It's not happpening.
As for Drew, if he does accept the QO, then we have a top 10 SS for 1 year, and he can be easily moved at the trade deadline if the Sox throw in money (which is not a big deal on a 1 year contract) if Bogaerts is ready. More likely is he turns down the QO, and the Sox can either sign a mid level SS to maybe start the season if Bogaerts isnt ready, and shift him to a utility role as Xander comes up, or they go into the season with Xander, Holt, and 1-2 other non-roster invitees battling it out in Spring Training.
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Post by jdb on Aug 14, 2013 8:19:29 GMT -5
It's really going to be intersting to see how much the FO wants Ells. When he's healthy he is one of the top CFs in baseball and arguably the best leadoff man in the game. He'll turn 30 next month and I can see us going five years that takes him to 34 but I think someone goes to a 6th and maybe 7 which would be crazy. I like JBJ more than anyone since I've followed him at South Carolina but he isn't a sure thing. He could step in next year and be great but he could also flame out or have a tough 2-3 year learning curve. We could always play Jackie in RF and Victorino in Left and when Victorinos contract expires make the move with JBJ in CF with Ells sliding over.
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zoot
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Post by zoot on Aug 14, 2013 8:52:21 GMT -5
With all the emphasis on contract length, is that really an issue? If you're willing to go 5, doesn't that assume he'll be productive over the life of the contract, with a decline towards the 5th year? But if the assumption is that he's productive in years 1-5, why not front-end load the contract to a point that's commensurate with his assumed productivity and taper down in years 6-7? There's a time-value of money for Ells in getting paid up front, and if he really is in decline, the years 6-7 contracts are relatively easy to move, even if you have to eat a bit of it.
Or maybe that's how they structure their deals anyway.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2013 9:36:01 GMT -5
I'm all in on Ells for 5 years at $15-16M a year. My assumption is he transitions to LF in year 2 or 3. As long as he doesn't get run over or stepped on he's been completely healthy. Victorino is completely destroying himself and will play fewer games per year than JD Drew did as a Sox player. Also I don't see a lead-off hitter in our stack without Ells, except Pedroia, who should be batting 2nd anyway (and who hates to leadoff). Not another good lead-off man on the market. They could trade for one, of course, but not sure that would fill a position of need.
Not convinced yet Bradley is an MLB lead-off man. That was a pretty big hole in his swing. Fixing that in AAA is a lot different than seeing how it plays out at MLB. I'm not saying he won't adjust, just not convinced he can handle lead-off yet.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 14, 2013 11:11:27 GMT -5
People are really down on Bradley based on 66 PAs.
He is not gonna perform to the level of Ellsbury right away but as I said other positions will be strengthen which will make that a moot point.
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Post by semperfisox on Aug 14, 2013 11:19:53 GMT -5
i think if we resign Ellsbury, it means we're going to make a serious run at Stanton.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 14, 2013 11:22:24 GMT -5
Every time the topic comes up of whether or not Drew would accept a QO my brain automatically goes right to Raphael Soriano and the fact the Nats paid him. If you look at teams that could use a shortstop upgrade coming into next year I'm sure you'll find several suitors including a couple odd ones who would sign him and most likely try to trade him at next years deadline.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 14, 2013 11:23:42 GMT -5
I'm all in on Ells for 5 years at $15-16M a year. My assumption is he transitions to LF in year 2 or 3. As long as he doesn't get run over or stepped on he's been completely healthy. Victorino is completely destroying himself and will play fewer games per year than JD Drew did as a Sox player. Also I don't see a lead-off hitter in our stack without Ells, except Pedroia, who should be batting 2nd anyway (and who hates to leadoff). Not another good lead-off man on the market. They could trade for one, of course, but not sure that would fill a position of need. Not convinced yet Bradley is an MLB lead-off man. That was a pretty big hole in his swing. Fixing that in AAA is a lot different than seeing how it plays out at MLB. I'm not saying he won't adjust, just not convinced he can handle lead-off yet. I think you're a little too down on Victorino. He has a nagging hamstring injury, but besides Pedroia, he has the longest streak on the team of consecutive games started (22 games), and he's played well in that span. He had a rough couple months where he needed to sit several games out, but those injuries didn't strike me as the type that are going to make him miss major time next season. He's on pace to play 128 games this season, and I don't think it's fair to be emphatic of him playing less than that amount going forward just because he plays hard and bangs into walls and has a nagging hammy. Also re: J.D. Drew, he played in at least 137 games in 3 of his 5 years. If that's around the number of games Victorino is going to play, I'm fine sticking him in the lead-off spot if JBJ isn't up for it right away. I'd like Ellsbury back too, but the terms of the deal that you say you're all in for aren't going to get it done. He'll be overpaid by someone, and I just don't see it being worth us matching a ridiculous price when we have a guy who is likely to be at least an average quality MLB center fielder (vs. Ellsbury: better defense, walks, worse speed and average). 5 years for a guy like Ells (who will be 30 years old in a month) should be the absolute cut-off, and with him soon to be entering his decline phase, it's tough to throw more than $15 mil a year at him.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2013 11:28:58 GMT -5
The affection for FAs blows hot and cold in baseball from season to season. Right now, it is cold. As a result, there won't be many really interesting FAs on the market this coming off-season. Ellsbury will be among the most interesting, but I really doubt any team is going to offer him a seven-year deal. Those deals have not been working out well, and we probably won't see anymore for a while.
Ellsbury's injury history should be enough to restrict the years in offers. Because his performance can be electric, I think teams are more likely to offer more money per year, but a shorter length of contract. I still think the best offers he will get will be in the 4-5 year/$14-16M range.
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Post by azsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 11:33:28 GMT -5
I would offer a QO to both Drew and Ellsbury. Signing Els is a priority because we need him for the lead-off spot, JBJ will not be that person and until someone else can be developed to maintain that role we need Els, 6-7 yr deal is feasible as we could move him out in a trade 3-4 years down the road if needed. If Drew does accept the QO, what stops the Sox from putting XB at 3rd and moving WMB to first since we will have a need there as well. Cecchini may be ready in 2015 and with Drew gone by then we could move XB back to short. That could be a very nice infield. As for JBJ if he can tune-up his hitting more, then he could replace the LF platoon of Nava/Gomes, when IMO mid 2014, since we have options on him I wouldn't be against starting him back at AAA next spring.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 14, 2013 11:59:48 GMT -5
If Drew does accept the QO, what stops the Sox from putting XB at 3rd and moving WMB to first since we will have a need there as well. Cecchini may be ready in 2015 and with Drew gone by then we could move XB back to short. That could be a very nice infield. I'm going to sound like a broken record here, but you need 4 top infielders (not including 1B) to contend, especially when you're still unsure of the production you're going to get from young guys at two positions. Drew on this team is not a redundancy or surplus that should push someone to 1B, but an asset and almost a need just to keep the O firing on all cylinders. Can you imagine the griping if Holt is your util guy behind WMB and Xander and then one of those guys underperforms or gets hurt? If he rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, fine, we'll find someone, but there's no reason not to get him on a one year deal to help ease in Xander. Nava represents a better OBP than Ellsbury, and would be a good stop-gap leadoff man, especially against RHP until JBJ or another is ready. ADD: Choo would be a great pickup though.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 14, 2013 12:02:20 GMT -5
i think if we resign Ellsbury, it means we're going to make a serious run at Stanton. I don't get the connection between these two moves
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 14, 2013 12:14:31 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury is the second best available free agent next winter. He will not be signed to 5 years 75 million. After doing a quick skim on Cotts, next years class is pretty much like this: Rabinson Cano (By and Far the Best) Ellsbury and Choo (Who will both get paid) McCann, Garza & Abreu? Beltran, Napoli, Morse, Morales, Hart Salty, Granderson, Drew, Ervin Santana, Michael Young, Nate McClouth
I think you let both Ells and Drew walk, and redirect the money saved to first base, catcher, and left field. Obviously it is hard to know which teams at this point will offer QO's to their players though I have to imagine that McCann and Garza are almost locks. Maybe the best bet is to resign Salty (though I would love McCann) and sign two of Abreu, Beltran, Hart, and Mclouth?
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