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Letting Ellsbury and Drew go...Is it worth it for the picks?
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Post by azsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 13:44:25 GMT -5
I can't understand why signing Ellsbury to a deal more than 5 years is wrong because he is 29/30 and extending Pedroia to a 8 yr deal is ok when he is the same age. Signing anyone to a deal for multiple years is taking a risk. Sure Els has past injuries but so has Peddy. The question the FO needs to ask itself 1)Is there a FA who is a better option 2)Do we have a option down on the farm who replace this person 3)Can we get by with current roster until someone is ready.
As for a better FA, there isn't. JBJ, his numbers scare me, avg has gone down every mth in AAA, terrible avg when behind in the count, lousy avg with runners on or in scoring position, sure some will say he has a better OBP because he walks alot but up against MLB pitchers they will exploit his weaknesses, he needs more time in the minors (this situation reminds me of when the Sox let Boggs go because they had Cooper). Yes they could move Victorino to CF, Nava in RF, and platoon Gomes/Carp but are you really a better team, not IMO.
Sign Beltran, No, he is 36 and currently makes 13MM, if I was St Louis I would QO him. Sign Choo, No, .236 avg outside of Cinn, 31 yrs old, and Cinn might QO him. McLouth, No, is 31 and not impressive career numbers, I see him sticking with Balt.
Ben will do what is best for the team for next year as well as long term and those assumptions will be based upon those players being healthy and continuing development of their skill sets.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 14, 2013 13:48:36 GMT -5
I can't understand why signing Ellsbury to a deal more than 5 years is wrong because he is 29/30 and extending Pedroia to a 8 yr deal is ok when he is the same age. Signing anyone to a deal for multiple years is taking a risk. Sure Els has past injuries but so has Peddy. The question the FO needs to ask itself 1)Is there a FA who is a better option 2)Do we have a option down on the farm who replace this person 3)Can we get by with current roster until someone is ready. As for a better FA, there isn't. JBJ, his numbers scare me, avg has gone down every mth in AAA, terrible avg when behind in the count, lousy avg with runners on or in scoring position, sure some will say he has a better OBP because he walks alot but up against MLB pitchers they will exploit his weaknesses, he needs more time in the minors (this situation reminds me of when the Sox let Boggs go because they had Cooper). Yes they could move Victorino to CF, Nava in RF, and platoon Gomes/Carp but are you really a better team, not IMO. Sign Beltran, No, he is 36 and currently makes 13MM, if I was St Louis I would QO him. Sign Choo, No, .236 avg outside of Cinn, 31 yrs old, and Cinn might QO him. McLouth, No, is 31 and not impressive career numbers, I see him sticking with Balt. Ben will do what is best for the team for next year as well as long term and those assumptions will be based upon those players being healthy and continuing development of their skill sets. Because elite 2B are very hard to find and Pedroia signed a team friendly deal. We don't have a very suitable replacement waiting in the wings for a fraction of the cost with Pedroia. Also, what do people not get about the fact that Ellsbury is a Boras client (as is Drew)? He is not willing to sign a team friendly deal like Dustin did. Drew and Ellsbury want as much money as possible which is why we can safely offer QOs to both, get the picks and move on.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 14, 2013 13:58:37 GMT -5
So because a player wants market value they aren't options for the Red Sox? Are we going to completely stop signing All Star caliber players?
This is the Red Sox. They can afford to throw money at the right players. And I personally consider a plus defensive CF with good leadoff skills and potential for 30 home runs the right player. The existence if Bradley Jr doesn't make Ellsbury unnecessary, it's just a bargaining chip. Nor does the existence of Ellsbury mean Bradley Jr is useless in other facets, whether it be in RF, LF, or playing for another team in exchange for a power hitting first baseman.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 14, 2013 14:09:13 GMT -5
Ellsbury and Drew are both very good players. I'd welcome them on the Red Sox again in a heartbeat. But the simple fact is we have cheap replacements ready to step and and provide possibly equivalent if not superior production, and the money saved and draft picks earned are a far better use of our resources. It's a 1000% no-brainer to let both of these guys walk.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 14, 2013 14:11:18 GMT -5
Playing JBJ in LF might be as big a waste as playing Iglesias at 3B. And we saw how long that lasted before they got better use out of that resource. If Ellsbury had two more years of control left, fine, play them both, but that's not the case.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 14, 2013 14:12:35 GMT -5
Just like signing Crawford, trading for Gonzalez was a move of "this are the Red Sox" movement.
Giving Ellsbury a long term contract is not allocating your resources the right way.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 14, 2013 14:13:19 GMT -5
Garza was traded mid-season, so he can't be offered a QO.
I would RATHER have Ellsbury than a draft pick, but that's not what the trade off is.
I would RATHER have Drew over a pick, but the same principle applies.
With the prospects ready to go behind these guys, and the contract Ellsbury is going to demand, I don't think there is a better choice than to let both of them walk, and I really do think Drew turns the offer down. If Drew does accept, he's a good trade chip before/during the season. Win/Win.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 14, 2013 14:14:25 GMT -5
And I should say, I doubt there's much debate about this at all with the Red Sox internally. Fans and to a lesser extent media are the only ones who think think this is even a possibility.
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Post by azsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 14:21:19 GMT -5
Replacement for Drew, yes Xander, for Ellsbury, no JBJ isn't ready
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 14, 2013 14:27:54 GMT -5
And I should say, I doubt there's much debate about this at all with the Red Sox internally. Fans and to a lesser extent media are the only ones who think think this is even a possibility. Think what is a possibility?
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,830
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 14, 2013 14:34:36 GMT -5
Replacement for Drew, yes Xander, for Ellsbury, no JBJ isn't ready I bet he is! Jackie Bradley will eventually be a better OBP player. Not saying he will be a better offensive player that Ells, but he will get on base at a better clip. It would be nice to bring back Ells on a 3 to 4 year contract, but it won't happen sadly. The day Ellsbury decided to sign with Scott Boras it was karma.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 14, 2013 14:41:28 GMT -5
Replacement for Drew, yes Xander, for Ellsbury, no JBJ isn't ready I remember when Dustin Pedroia wasn't ready. Man, he was awful for a while.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 14:42:50 GMT -5
i think if we resign Ellsbury, it means we're going to make a serious run at Stanton. I don't get the connection between these two moves Resigning Ellsbury makes more sense if Bradley is headed off in a trade.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 14:49:10 GMT -5
Because elite 2B are very hard to find and Pedroia signed a team friendly deal. We don't have a very suitable replacement waiting in the wings for a fraction of the cost with Pedroia. Also, what do people not get about the fact that Ellsbury is a Boras client (as is Drew)? He is not willing to sign a team friendly deal like Dustin did. Drew and Ellsbury want as much money as possible which is why we can safely offer QOs to both, get the picks and move on. That's true. It sucks that Jason Varitek left the Red Sox after 04 to get more money... The player gets what the player wants regardless of Boras and neither one of these guys just signed Boras before their impending free agency in order to get more $$$. So they are just as likely to take less money as anyone else (albeit not particularly likely).
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2013 14:51:14 GMT -5
Playing JBJ in LF might be as big a waste as playing Iglesias at 3B. And we saw how long that lasted before they got better use out of that resource. If Ellsbury had two more years of control left, fine, play them both, but that's not the case. If they did end up keep Ells I'd play Bradley in RF for years 1 & 2 and Victorino in LF to save his legs.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2013 14:54:07 GMT -5
Because elite 2B are very hard to find and Pedroia signed a team friendly deal. We don't have a very suitable replacement waiting in the wings for a fraction of the cost with Pedroia. Also, what do people not get about the fact that Ellsbury is a Boras client (as is Drew)? He is not willing to sign a team friendly deal like Dustin did. Drew and Ellsbury want as much money as possible which is why we can safely offer QOs to both, get the picks and move on. That's true. It sucks that Jason Varitek left the Red Sox after 04 to get more money... The player gets what the player wants regardless of Boras and neither one of these guys just signed Boras before their impending free agency in order to get more $$$. So they are just as likely to take less money as anyone else (albeit not particularly likely). Weaver and Cargo stayed with their teams for less money and both Boras clients. Also if Ells has a chance to make more money but he has to play for the Mets or Mariners does he say, it's all about the cash, or does he say, I'd rather make a lot of money rather than the most I can and be in a place where I think I can win? Can't judge either way. No matter what deal he takes his family will be set for generations.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 14:57:47 GMT -5
Playing JBJ in LF might be as big a waste as playing Iglesias at 3B. And we saw how long that lasted before they got better use out of that resource. If Ellsbury had two more years of control left, fine, play them both, but that's not the case. Considering that there are 3 OFs you shouldn't have to worry about LF as Bradley is a perfect fit for RF in Fenway. A Victorino + platoon would be just fine in LF for 2 years (unless he is traded) especially if an All-Star 1B doesn't fall into the Red Sox lap this season (more time for Carp/Nava/Hassan/etc. at 1B). Also, it is very difficult to judge what another team will be willing to offer Ellsbury because of his injury history, his lead-off man status (power makes more money than speed) and because it is just difficult in general. Best we can do is decide on the largest offer we would be willing to give Ellsbury if we were BC, and for me that is 5/85. There - I showed you mine. (Please note that in 1.5 years the lux tax goes up and there will be multiple BIG tv deals signed. So 85 mil may look more like 55 mil in 2015)
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 14, 2013 16:55:53 GMT -5
This is the Red Sox. They can afford to throw money at the right players. And I personally consider a plus defensive CF with good leadoff skills and potential for 30 home runs the right player. He hit 32 once and hasn't hit ten in any other season. He has potential to hit 30 home runs like I have potential to hit a golf ball 325 yards. I would give both players the QO, I'd make a 5/75 offer for Jacoby and I wouldn't think twice when both walk away for better deals. And to answer azsoxfan's question about Jacoby vs. Dustin - Jacoby's game revolves around his speed. When he starts losing it, his performance will erode quickly. Dustin's game is an old school game and should age better (although, to be fair, once he loses some of his elite bat speed it likely won't be pretty). Further, Pedroia is more consistent, plays more game and takes a leadership role on the team.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 14, 2013 18:24:15 GMT -5
He hit 32 once and hasn't hit ten in any other season. He has potential to hit 30 home runs like I have potential to hit a golf ball 325 yards. Thats why the word "potential" was used. He's done it before, he can do it again. Just like you can hit the ball 325 again. You don't accidentally have the season Jacoby did. Will he? Maybe, maybe not. My money is on probably not. But even if he doesn't he's still an All Star caliber player and a plus defensive CF. And why are we assuming one day Jacoby will suddenly lose all his speed? He's not 35, he never had weight issues, isn't plagued by chronic leg issues, is an elite athlete. . . and it's not like his average is held up by a slew on infield hits like Iglesias' was or like Ichiro made a career out of. I see no reason why he shouldn't play well into his mid 30's.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2013 18:30:13 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 14, 2013 18:35:23 GMT -5
I gotta say, I'm a little baffled at how down some people on here seem about JBJ these days. I wouldn't expect him to match Ellsbury's performance over the next season or two, but I think it's cost effective to let Ellsbury walk and take his draft picks when he's given some crazy deal.
What exactly do people expect from Bradley Jr. next season? I think .260/.340/.450 with 5-10 steals and above average defense is reasonable.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2013 18:38:06 GMT -5
That power projection is aggressive. His career isolated power is .181, and you're projecting him with a .190 mark in the major leagues. Something like .260/.340/.400 is probably more likely.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 14, 2013 18:40:36 GMT -5
And I should say, I doubt there's much debate about this at all with the Red Sox internally. Fans and to a lesser extent media are the only ones who think think this is even a possibility. Think what is a possibility? Signing Ellsbury to a huge free agent contract.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 14, 2013 18:43:22 GMT -5
I need you to explain this graph to me, I read the article and it still makes no sense to me.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 14, 2013 18:45:59 GMT -5
Signing Ellsbury to a huge free agent contract. And this is based on what, your own conjecture? Heresay? Things you just made up? How is it that you have inside information that neither this board nor the media has?
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