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Letting Ellsbury and Drew go...Is it worth it for the picks?
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Post by jmei on Aug 27, 2013 17:32:56 GMT -5
Ellsbury's two strongest traits (range on defense and baserunning on offense) may be dependent on his speed, but he also brings elite contact rates and league-average power and walk rates, all of which are unlikely to decline precipitously with age. He's less of a one-note guy than a lot of center fielders.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 27, 2013 18:02:37 GMT -5
Ellsbury's primary offensive weapon is his speed. Unless he has a body different from most men, he is going to start losing speed in another year or two. By the time he is 35 he won't be stealing bases as easily as he can now. I think GMs know this, and it is likely to keep down the number of years he gets in an offer. A normal man will also starting losing his strength in his 30s (provided that there are no PEDs), and therefore his ability to hit for power. I think it is a little unfair to assume that baseball players lose their speed like normal humans, but not their physical strength.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 27, 2013 18:39:59 GMT -5
...not be a professional athlete of any sort.
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Post by jdb on Sept 1, 2013 12:53:10 GMT -5
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Sept 6, 2013 9:45:36 GMT -5
So with Scot Boras saying thast Jacoby Ellsbury is worth more money than Carl Crawford, can we finally end the debate of whether or not the Sox should re-sign him? A 3-4 yr deal is not happening folks. Per Jon Heyman: "Boras, meantime, suggested that not only is Upton not in the ballpark but that even Crawford comes up short as a player, as well. Jayson Werth's $126 million, seven-year deal may help Ellsbury's case, too, but Crawford is the one who seems obvious to mention since he's a speed player like Ellsbury, and more to the point, that was Boston's own deal." www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/23495290/boras-compares-ellsbury-to-carl-crawford-and-an-aircraft-carrier
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Post by threeifbaerga on Sept 6, 2013 10:00:30 GMT -5
So with Scot Boras saying thast Jacoby Ellsbury is worth more money than Carl Crawford, can we finally end the debate of whether or not the Sox should re-sign him? A 3-4 yr deal is not happening folks. When negotiating from Scott/Jacoby's position you want to start sky high. That's what Boras ALWAYS does. Throw out incredible numbers before the negotiations actually start so that when you do make concessions you end up at where you want to be, maybe even higher. I know I don't need to teach you negotiating tactics, but him talking about Crawford/Werth deals (neither of which have worked out for the teams signing them) tells me he's looking for something higher than Upton's deal, that's all.
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Post by bighead on Sept 6, 2013 11:58:52 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe that Ellsbury can be resigned to a deal that makes sense for the Sox. "Makes sense for the Sox" is a phrase that is wide open for interpretation. I think it would not make good business sense to sign Ellsbury to a deal in the ballpark Boras will be asking for when you can play JBJ in center, live with the dropoff in production and realocate the funds it would have taken to sign Ellsbury to other parts of the roster. You can't tell me the margin of production dropoff will be worth the excess salary to retain Ellsbury. And yes, the Sox do have a budget no matter what anybody says.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 6, 2013 12:03:07 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe that Ellsbury can be resigned to a deal that makes sense for the Sox. "Makes sense for the Sox" is a phrase that is wide open for interpretation. I think it would not make good business sense to sign Ellsbury to a deal in the ballpark Boras will be asking for when you can play JBJ in center, live with the dropoff in production and realocate the funds it would have taken to sign Ellsbury to other parts of the roster. You can't tell me the margin of production dropoff will be worth the excess salary to retain Ellsbury. And yes, the Sox do have a budget no matter what anybody says. I hate to pick on you, because almost everyone in this thread is doing it. But lets, as a group, stop externalizing how much money Ellsbury is going to get paid onto Boras. Ellsbury isn't going to be paid because Boras throws out extravagant claims of how much he's worth, nor is Ellsbury some puppet who Boras is deviously pulling the strings of. If Ellsbury gets a lot of money from the highest bidder, it's because he hired Scott Boras to do that for him, and Boras is better than anyone at it.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 6, 2013 12:46:05 GMT -5
A normal man will also starting losing his strength in his 30s (provided that there are no PEDs), and therefore his ability to hit for power. I think it is a little unfair to assume that baseball players lose their speed like normal humans, but not their physical strength. I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Most of the strongest people in the world are in the late 30s or early 40s. Look at Highland games athletes, Strongman competitions, Powerlifting, Olympic weightlifting, etc.; the best are almost always older. Strength is cumulative, especially for professional athletes. Speed does decrease with age, likely because of repeated use and loss of muscular/connective tissue elasticity. For a baseball analogy: pitcher velocity *rarely improves from the early 20s, but always decreases after a few years. *rehab from injury or initial focus on strength training while entering pro ranks can sometimes see an improvement in veolcity.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 6, 2013 13:03:48 GMT -5
Just thought I'd mention this since a lot of comps have been thrown out there. Coco Crisp is 4 years older than Ellsbury. He doesn't appear to be slowing down. My comp for Jacoby is Johnny Damon. He didn't really start to slow down until 09 when he was 35. Jacoby will be 30 this fall. He'll probably be pretty good until he's 35. Which is 6 years. He keeps himself in great shape. Sure, he has had a couple of fluke injuries. Hard to say whether they happen again or not.
I know that not many shared my opinion. I was leaning towards re-signing Drew and moving Xander to 3b. WMB has restored my faith in him. I'm comfortable letting Drew walk now. No complaints about his play. I'd even give him the QO to get the pick.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 6, 2013 13:08:57 GMT -5
So with Scot Boras saying thast Jacoby Ellsbury is worth more money than Carl Crawford, can we finally end the debate of whether or not the Sox should re-sign him? A 3-4 yr deal is not happening folks. Per Jon Heyman: "Boras, meantime, suggested that not only is Upton not in the ballpark but that even Crawford comes up short as a player, as well. Jayson Werth's $126 million, seven-year deal may help Ellsbury's case, too, but Crawford is the one who seems obvious to mention since he's a speed player like Ellsbury, and more to the point, that was Boston's own deal." www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/23495290/boras-compares-ellsbury-to-carl-crawford-and-an-aircraft-carrierUsing he Crawford contract as a minimum bar is interesting in that he has severely underperformed that contract. Same with Werth. He might want to find a better comp. Not that there won't be bidders, but pointing to bad contracts as benchmarks just doesn't seem to make much sense. As is usually the case, some team will likely step up and make an offer that will end up being a bad contract. I doubt it will Boston
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 6, 2013 13:12:47 GMT -5
Give ells, drew and salty QO's. Let them walk if they don't accept.
None fit into the long term plans of this team unless ellsbury wants to sign a team friendly deal. I understand his frustration given Crawford's deal... I just think the team is moving in a different direction.
I don't like the idea of moving Xander to 3rd when we have both WMB and Cecchini... Seems like a terrible waste of resources. Wouldn't mind Drew taking the QO for 1 yr though, which he probably won't anyway.
Salty would be good for a year even if we have to overpay until Vasquez and swihart get some experience.
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 13:29:43 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Sept 6, 2013 14:16:47 GMT -5
A normal man will also starting losing his strength in his 30s (provided that there are no PEDs), and therefore his ability to hit for power. I think it is a little unfair to assume that baseball players lose their speed like normal humans, but not their physical strength. I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Most of the strongest people in the world are in the late 30s or early 40s. Look at Highland games athletes, Strongman competitions, Powerlifting, Olympic weightlifting, etc.; the best are almost always older. Strength is cumulative, especially for professional athletes. Speed does decrease with age, likely because of repeated use and loss of muscular/connective tissue elasticity. For a baseball analogy: pitcher velocity *rarely improves from the early 20s, but always decreases after a few years. *rehab from injury or initial focus on strength training while entering pro ranks can sometimes see an improvement in veolcity. I realize its anecdotal but, thats just what I heard.
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 14:22:27 GMT -5
Drew and Salty should take a rate less than the QO - $14M?, but would desire 2-year? Salty should be good a fit for 2yr because there is no replacement in the wings. We could say that Drew is not needed for 2 years, but of course it also appeared that Beltre was not needed with AGon and Youk in hand, netting Swihart and Bradley as compensation. I am thinking that our team looks to be strong contenders in next year and following, hence it might be better to try to keep important players over prospects that will take a few years to develop.
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Post by knuckledown on Sept 6, 2013 14:38:45 GMT -5
1. I think the Red Sox are still willing to "over"pay for fewer years and won't be shy about QOs to the 4 FAs. 2. I would offer it to all of them. 3. The Red Sox have drafted very well in the compensation round and would expect them to do so again. 4. They have the depth to make it work if every one of these guys left with a combination of guys on the roster now and modest FA signings like last year. That said, it will likely be a drop in talent and/or performance at all of those positions, possible exception of SS, depending on how soon Xander can be perform at a higher level than Drew. 5. The QO will be tempting to Napoli and Drew, slightly less for Salty and not at all for Ellsbury. I guess I wouldn't offer more than the QO to Napoli and Drew, and would offer longer-term deals to Salty and Ellsbury. That's a thread all by itself.
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Post by bighead on Sept 6, 2013 18:18:55 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe that Ellsbury can be resigned to a deal that makes sense for the Sox. "Makes sense for the Sox" is a phrase that is wide open for interpretation. I think it would not make good business sense to sign Ellsbury to a deal in the ballpark Boras will be asking for when you can play JBJ in center, live with the dropoff in production and realocate the funds it would have taken to sign Ellsbury to other parts of the roster. You can't tell me the margin of production dropoff will be worth the excess salary to retain Ellsbury. And yes, the Sox do have a budget no matter what anybody says. I hate to pick on you, because almost everyone in this thread is doing it. But lets, as a group, stop externalizing how much money Ellsbury is going to get paid onto Boras. Ellsbury isn't going to be paid because Boras throws out extravagant claims of how much he's worth, nor is Ellsbury some puppet who Boras is deviously pulling the strings of. If Ellsbury gets a lot of money from the highest bidder, it's because he hired Scott Boras to do that for him, and Boras is better than anyone at it. No worries. I agree with your point and thought that it was understood that this is what players want when they hire Boras. My point was since that is what Ellsbury is shooting for then it makes good business sense to let him walk. A lot of people suspect we have a viable replacement in JBJ and could better allocate that money you would have spent on other parts of the roster. Not suggesting that JBJ would seamlessly replace Ellsbury's value but he potentially could produce enough value to justify reallocating what the Sox would have paid to retain Ellsbury on other parts of the roster.
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Post by bighead on Sept 7, 2013 13:00:59 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Sept 7, 2013 14:03:52 GMT -5
We'll have to see how bad the foot injury is here. If it is indeed similar to Pedroia's 2010 injury and he misses the remainder of the season it means two things. One, the team is worse off for the playoff run and in the playoffs losing a solid defender, speed threat on the bases and an above average leadoff hitter. Two, the team can still offer a QO and a team would still be willing to give him a multi year deal but the injury could by itself be enough to lower the contract value making it much more likely the team resigns him.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2013 4:58:25 GMT -5
Over the last month, the apparent (and I stress that word, because things could change again) need or desirability to re-sign Ellsbury has changed dramatically. It's a storm so perfect it looks like it was scripted by Scott Boras's bitter ex-wife, assuming he has one (or more).
Will Middlebrooks is recalled August 10 and proceeds to hit .357 / .432 / .583 in 95 PA. He was always a guy that scouts loved more than statheads, who thought that his iffy plate discipline made him project as just a bit-above-average for an MLB regular, rather than any kind of a star. Last year came out of nowhere, and aligned the statheads with the scouts. The start of this year made everyone wonder whether last year was some kind of fluke, and whether the league had finally learned to exploit his lack of discipline.
Now it's looking again like 2012 was real progress, and that his collapse this year was ironically driven by starting the season .320 / .370 / .880 over the first 6 games, climaxing with a 3-HR game -- after which he .174 / .207 / .320 in 47 G / 189 PA . Which, come to think of it, is far worse than any stathead projection ever, and hard to explain as just the league figuring him out, rather than him first getting way too pull-conscious, and then completely messed up in general.
And the result of this? You are now far less likely to trade Middlebrooks to make room for Garin Cecchini, and that makes Cecchini far more likely to end up in the OF, at 1B, or at DH.
Daniel Nava, who had been fading and, given his mediocre defense, looking more and more like a guy who belonged in a killer five-man platoon with both Ellsbury and Bradley, rather than any kind of regular, flips a switch on August 13 and hits .429 / .541 / .694 in 17 G / 62 PA since. Now his season line once again looks like a guy who plays every day against RHP, home and away, rather than a guy who plays mostly at Fenway.
Shane Victorino starts hitting right-handed full time in early August, and after a brief cool spell when the team is facing tough pitching, goes insane starting August 17th, to the tune of .375 / .457 / .713 in 92 PA. And suddenly he, too, has gone from a guy destined to be platooned, playing vs. all LHP, and on the road vs. most RHP, to a guy who not only needs to be in the lineup every day, but, honest to God, is a potential #4 hitter.
Mike Napoli says, hey, if they can do it, so can I, and starting August 24, hits .409 / .500 / .909 in 52 PA. Suddenly he's worth the $13M they originally agreed to pay him for next year and 2015. And you now have an opportunity to pick up a guy who ranks 6th or 7th in 1B WAR at less than market value, without any acquisition cost at all. (Or, if they love Abreu, to sign an even better guy for no acquisition cost, and net a draft pick if they offer Napoli a QO.) And that means that Cecchini is even likelier to end up in the OF.
Jackie Bradley, Jr., who had hit .210 / .336 / .370 over 28 G / 120 PA from July 4 to August 17 (including four with the Sox), recovers his equilibrium and hits .304 / .388 / .406 over his next 80 PA (including three games in the IL playoffs and one back with the Sox) which, while not great, adds a good deal of confidence that he can be a well-above average #9 hitter while playing plus defense in CF next year.
A month ago I thought the 2015 team might have Cecchini at 3B, and Nava and Carp at 1B and DH, and there was an actual hole in the OF alongside Bradley and Victorino, and the latter looked to be a platoon player by then. It looked like they had a honking need to re-sign Ellsbury.
But if your 2015 team has Napoli at 1B, Middlebrooks at 3B, Bradley in CF, a studly Victorino in RF, and some combination of Cecchini, Nava, and Carp at LF and DH, there's not even an obvious place for him.
Now, if all of the aforementioned go 0-for the rest of September, we're back to the proverbial square one (or, if you prefer it as a description of needing to negotiate with Scott Boras, back to ground zero). But as of right now, the thought of losing him seems infinitely more palatable than it did a month ago.
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Post by onbase on Sept 8, 2013 7:14:24 GMT -5
What Mr. Van describes above is a pretty good negotiating position.
I can't help wanting to see an outfield of Ellsbury, Bradley Jr., and that amazing Hawaiian. Is it crazy to think that Jacoby in left saves his legs for the base paths and minimizes the impact of his less that Dewey-like throwing arm? And with that outfield plus Nava there would be plenty of platoon / rest options since all three starters can play CF.
(Playing GM is not my thing, so forgive me if this has all been hashed out before.)
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Sept 8, 2013 8:19:36 GMT -5
Yes, we should make all personnel decisions based on hot streaks near the end of the season.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 8, 2013 8:22:49 GMT -5
Great post Eric. Things are fluid. There aren't many absolutes in player evaluation. I'm not a Nava fan-boy or anything. In fact, always looking for a way to fill his spot or forget about him altogether. But, I think he hurt his wrist in the middle of the season. Hit it on wall if memory correct. He really tailed off after that. I wonder if his resurgence is due to good health. He is squaring up the ball and driving it. Like he did early in the season before the wrist problem. Amazing that he's become as good as he is.
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Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2013 9:20:10 GMT -5
I really don't think that the recent hot streaks of Napoli and Victorino should influence their 2015 projections too much, especially considering their age and injury history. I do agree that Bradley's performance in the next few weeks will have impact on the decision to sign Ellsbury, but that otherwise, the performance of other players won't have too much of an influence.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 8, 2013 9:39:49 GMT -5
Yes, we should make all personnel decisions based on hot streaks near the end of the season. I agree. We have to look at multiple factors including a full season of stats for offense and defense, positional needs potential in house minor league replacements, etc. etc. etc. I think we all agree to give Ellsbury a QO. That seems to be a no brainer. Someone will over pay for him, hopefully not us. Drew is a bit more trickier. His season his had some brief hot bursts followed by long periods of slump, and of course the occasional injury. He earned 10 mil this past season. We have got to give Bogey the majority of at bats at SS next season and time for Bogey to find his way. However the fact remains, we got nothing behind Bogey and we need depth. So can Cherrington pay Drew $14Mil. a year to be a backup/part time player? Would Drew/Boras accept that role? I think you put the QO out there for Drew and if he accepts, great, we have a solid option if Bogey gets hurt or Bogey or Middlebrooks has adjustment issues next season. Napoli is making $13 mil this season and has hit 21 HR and driven in 85 to date, while providing decent defense at first base and tremendous clubhouse chemistry. Yes he is a rally killing strike out machine with a degenerative hip condition. But we got nothing behind him at first base. In my mind, Napoli has earned a QO and worst case scenario a 1 mil raise for 1 season. At some point Middlebrooks is going to first and Checcini is taking over 3rd base. Salty is the guy that opinions seem to vary widely. I do not think his season is worthy of a QO. We have some in house options as well as FA signing options. I am a Lavarnway fan and would love to see a Lavarnway/Vasquez backstop combo for 2015, but a lot of things could go south between now and 2015. So for 2014 I think we try to sign Salty to a multiple year deal, at a decent bump over this year's rate, but if that is not acceptable to Salty, then we have to let him walk.
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