ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2013 4:44:30 GMT -5
Some comments / suggestions: MLB Bullpen - Andrew Bailey's going to be non-tendered and can be removed entirely.
- Alex Wilson has done nothing to earn a spot in next year's pen rather than a seat on the Pawtucket to Boston shuttle. The 3.08 FIP is nice, but with a 30.0% LD%, the .378 BABIP probably has a significant real component, and at some point he will give up a HR; his SIERA (which projects HR rate from other components) is 4.50. And of course his AAA numbers aren't even as good.
- Brandon Workman has pretty obviously established an MLB role as the valuable long man / spot starter who is good enough to pitch high-leverage innings.
- Nor do I think it's premature to pencil Drake Britton in as the 3rd lefty in the pen.
- That still leaves you with nine guys, which is one too many (you always assume an injury), so one of the acquisitions should go.
- How Rubby De La Rosa does going forward will determine not just whether he projects to be in the pen next year, but whether the surviving Acquistion should be dropped to the bottom of the depth chart (meaning he'll be an Albers / Aardsma / Bonser / Littleton lottery ticket type) and Villareal changed to blue. But I agree that's premature.
Other
- There's no way that Ryan Lavarnway is next year's starting catcher, given the amount of PT he's getting as the backup. I'd list Saltalamacchia is a re-acquisition, and Lavarnway as the Pawtucket DH, with Butler as the backup C. The smart thing to do will be to try to get Lavarnway's bat to where it was in 2009-2011, and allowing him to DH, play some 1B, and catch once a week would be the way to do it.
- I think there's a decent chance that Carp is next year's 1B and the acquisition is either re-signing Ellsbury, or picking up a backup 1B/OF. But the way you have it is likeliest.
- Moving Workman to the MLB pen allows you to promote Barnes to Pawtucket, which seems both likely and desirable. If you can't think of anyone better, I'd replace him at Portland with Haeger as a re-acquisition. There's probably a place for him in this org, giving young catchers experience with the knuckler, as long as he wants to pitch and can get AA batters out.
- Pedro Beato should be in the Pawtucket pen. There's no roster squeeze that will force him to be lost to waivers, and he'll be a useful shuttle passenger.
- Obviously, the PawSox need a CF now that Kalish has had his 19th surgery. Mitch Maier as a re-acquisition?
- I'm convinced that Betts belongs at Portland next year, and I bet the organization agrees. But I can't think of a way to get him there without projecting Coyle to repeat Salem, which seems like a stretch (even though Betts has outhit him there despite being a year younger). So I find what you've got to be both optimal and clearly wrong. If I can think of a satisfactory solution, I'll let you know.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 15, 2013 11:51:56 GMT -5
I greatly appreciate the input, there are some excellent bits of knowledge in there. But you may want to work on not stating your opinions as fact. I think they will be received better by the staff and other members of the board, and everybody can be happy campers.
FWIW, you've probably put more focus here than we have this season. While we try to make weekly updates to the page, we just don't have a ton of man hours to dedicate to the 2014 page during the season (we put a lot more emphasis in the off-season). So I am being sincere when I say we truly appreciate the input.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 15, 2013 18:05:18 GMT -5
There's no way that Ryan Lavarnway is next year's starting catcher, given the amount of PT he's getting as the backup. I'd list Saltalamacchia is a re-acquisition, and Lavarnway as the Pawtucket DH, with Butler as the backup C. And, uh, what happens with Ross in your projection? |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2013 6:54:27 GMT -5
There's no way that Ryan Lavarnway is next year's starting catcher, given the amount of PT he's getting as the backup. I'd list Saltalamacchia is a re-acquisition, and Lavarnway as the Pawtucket DH, with Butler as the backup C. And, uh, what happens with Ross in your projection? Continues as the (first-rate) MLB backup. |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2013 7:01:36 GMT -5
I greatly appreciate the input, there are some excellent bits of knowledge in there. But you may want to work on not stating your opinions as fact. I think they will be received better by the staff and other members of the board, and everybody can be happy campers. FWIW, you've probably put more focus here than we have this season. While we try to make weekly updates to the page, we just don't have a ton of man hours to dedicate to the 2014 page during the season (we put a lot more emphasis in the off-season). So I am being sincere when I say we truly appreciate the input. I always assume that apparent facts in my posts are understood to be just my opinions. Not only does it save me from typing "IMHO" a lot, it saves me from lying about the "H." BTW, I did assume that the page hasn't been attended to much, since Bailey was still listed. Not that that was obvious from my tone ... So I'll try my best to come across as the nice guy I actually am in real life! And let me say now that I am and have always been immensely impressed by the work you do here, and even though I'm relatively new to the forums, you can't imagine how many hours I've spent at the site over the years. "Invaluable resource" is an understatement. |
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Post by Steve Henley on Aug 24, 2013 13:32:51 GMT -5
I'm convinced that Betts belongs at Portland next year, and I bet the organization agrees. But I can't think of a way to get him there without projecting Coyle to repeat Salem, which seems like a stretch (even though Betts has outhit him there despite being a year younger). So I find what you've got to be both optimal and clearly wrong. If I can think of a satisfactory solution, I'll let you know. I think Betts and Coyle could fit on the same roster. Right now in Salem Betts is starting most of the games at 2B and Coyle is DHing. Given Coyle's injury history I think it makes sense to let him DH more. I think the Sox would be wise to also give him some time at 3B and maybe even 1B. The positional flexibility could help him break into the majors sooner as well as allowing him to stay on the field at less physically demanding positions. |
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