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8/30 ML Gameday Thread: Buchholz rehabs in Pawtucket
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 30, 2013 22:50:40 GMT -5
What a mixed bag time for Ranaudo it has been since promoted to Pawtucket. It seems he's either fantastic or terrible in any given game.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 30, 2013 22:55:24 GMT -5
Buch should be up to almost full pitch count in 2 more starts. Vazquez I wonder how many came with a knuckleballer on the mound though. same for Butler's stats. On the other hand, in 2011, Britton and Pimentel were #4/5 on this site, and just behind Ranaudo for best SP prospects. Then they went out and had two of the worst seasons possible and while Ranaudo had yet to flame, he and Doubront (who also looked like a lost cause soon after) was all that was separating us from Kyle Weiland. Now we just have shut down guys left and right, all the way through the minors. Ranaudo was lights out tonight, Kukuk was dealing (really nice to see)... Times have changed. I checked this the other day, and just 6 of the passed balls were b/c of Haeger.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2013 23:12:02 GMT -5
Kukuk was dealing (really nice to see) Thanks for pointing this out specifically (I missed it looking at the box score), and for reminding me of the other way that ml pitching lines can be misleading. Minor league pitchers seem to be more prone to cruising and then melting down, presumably because they've had less experience maintaining their mechanics once they begin to tire. And their managers will leave them in, if their pitch counts are OK, to get hit hard in their final inning, as a learning experience. So a spectacular pitching line can blow up. I used to try to read every pitching prospect game log, and if you're really interested in anyone, that can be eye-opening. This was Kukuk tonight: 53, Ks, Ks. Kc, 8, BB, 9. Ks, Ks, 9. Kc, BB, Ks, P5. L3, Ks, 63. BB, Ks ... that's right, 5 1/3 no-hit innings fanning 9 of 18 hitters faced ... ... 2B (LD9), 2B (LD9), IBB, 2B (LD9). Manny Rivera allowed the inherited runner to score, and just like that, it's 5 ER in 5.1 IP! Just about the most encouraging 8.44 ERA performance you'll ever see. The FIP is 1.51, which is why you should generally ignore ERA for minor leaguers and just look at FIP and BABIP (which in the minors is absolutely a skill) separately.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 30, 2013 23:25:01 GMT -5
Entering 8/31 (Teams in BoldItalics have clinched a playoff spot. Teams in Bold would make playoffs if season ended today.)
Pawtucket, 78-62, 3 games remaining, clinched IL North Presently the #3 seed, looks like they get #2 Indianapolis in the first round.
Portland, 68-70, 4 games remaining vs. Trenton 1 down, 4 to go
Salem, 40-27 2nd half, 73-64 overall, 3 games remaining, clinched Southern Division title
Lowell, 39-29, 5 games remaining: 2 vs. Tri-City, 3 @ Aberdeen Picked up another game in both races. Huge couple of games this weekend. NYPL Stedler: 2nd place, 0.5 GB of Tri-City NYPL Wild Card: 2nd place, 1.0 GB of Jamestown
GCL Red Sox, 35-25, clinched GCL South Defeated NYY2. Moves on to best-of-three with the Nationals on Saturday.
DSL Red Sox, Clinched 1st place, Boca Chica NW Eliminated in DSL Semifinals.
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Post by templeusox on Aug 31, 2013 2:01:59 GMT -5
The GCL Nationals are a juggernaut. One of the best professional sports teams of all time.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 31, 2013 7:59:26 GMT -5
Cody still has got to cut down on BB. Had four tonight in 5+ IP. His K rate, though, is impressive (113 in 107IP).
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 31, 2013 8:06:29 GMT -5
Heck of a game all around at Portland last night. Chris Hernandez pitched as well as could be expected with 7 shutout innings and 3 hits. In 5 starts since returning to Portland from AAA, his ERA is 1.64. As most know, he is a soft tosser with his FB operating 86-88 but his control was outstanding. Linhares, Shaw and Almanzar went deep.
As noted by another poster, Vasquez had another passed ball on a pitch in the dirt but definitely block-able. He did not have an opportunity to throw out any base-runners. Vasquez hit 2 balls off the left field wall. Talk about the prototypical fire hydrant catcher...his base-running speed is rivaled only by Ryan Lavarnway. His short stature likely aids his reported outstanding pop time.
For those who have been to Hadlock Field, Almanzar's blast, an instant no-doubter, hit just below the clock atop the wall in left-center. I suspect that it was a 440 foot shot. Linhares' HR settled in the lower net in straight-away left and Shaw hit a Papi-esque moon-shot to center that seemed about as high as far just clearing the 400 foot mark in center.
A season ticket holder noted that Almanzar's defense is poor (no surprise of course). He began his year at 3B, was shifted to 1B and finally was installed as the DH. He does run much better though than when I first saw him as an awkward youngster in the GCL several years ago.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2013 10:22:13 GMT -5
A season ticket holder noted that Almanzar's defense is poor (no surprise of course). He began his year at 3B, was shifted to 1B and finally was installed as the DH. He does run much better though than when I first saw him as an awkward youngster in the GCL several years ago. Thanks much for the report. As for the above about Almanzar, that's not quite the way I'd put it. For one thing, he hasn't played much 1B this year at all (just 23 games of 128). The other thing is that the "move" off of 3B was just Cecchini getting promoted, and he pretty much went straight from being the primary 3B to being the primary DH, although he has definitely been playing more 3B recently, something like 3 out of every 8 games or so.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2013 10:32:26 GMT -5
The GCL Nationals are a juggernaut. One of the best professional sports teams of all time. He's not kidding (well, maybe engaging in a bit of hyperbole). 49-9 record for a .845 winning pct. 28-2 at home Had a 17-game winning streak, which also capped a 25-1 stretch Led GCL scoring w/ 5.50 runs/game, .73 more than next-best team Led GCL by allowing 2.78 runs/game, .70 fewer than next-best team (Red Sox) Led GCL in fielding percentage at .977 (Red Sox second at .975) All the above said, it's tough to compare teams across that league. Some of the Nats' dominance could be from the three teams in their division, the only teams they played all season, being poor. The Marlins, Cards, and Mets were all below .500, were the three worst-fielding teams in the league (by fielding percentage), and were 3 of the 6 worst-hitting teams. (There is of course a chicken-egg scenario in that their bad numbers could be in part from playing 1/3 of their schedules against the Nationals, or the Nationals could be so good because they all stink. The truth is likely somewhere between.)
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2013 10:34:18 GMT -5
Yeah, Eric. I got a little lucky in that I check it in between 5th and 6th so I saw what happened. That's something I always try to do, is to look at the middle innings separately. Sometimes a pitcher takes an inning to settle in, and almost always it seems, the 6th/7th are harder.
Sometimes it may be a pitcher just is getting hit the third time through because he showed all his pitches early (side note, my fav thing about Josh Beckett when he was good was the way he could cruise through the lineup once with seemingly just a FB, once with FB/CB, and then pull out the changeup later on, and get through 7 IP before batters could even start to adjust). The younger a prospect is, the more I care about innings 1-5, especially later in the year as velocity drops (for a guy like Owens).
The difference between Barnes AAA debut and Kukuk was that Disarcina pulled Barnes a batter or two early just to make sure he had a good line out of it, and Kukuk was semmingly far better than his line.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2013 10:35:35 GMT -5
"28-2 at home"
Is home record in the GCL a 'thing'? Is that more related to comfort/travel, than fans? Couldn't we use this to show that fans make no difference and home field advantage is just due to comfort/travel/familiarity? And last at bat... (If we don't know this already).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2013 11:08:02 GMT -5
"28-2 at home" Is home record in the GCL a 'thing'? Is that more related to comfort/travel, than fans? Couldn't we use this to show that fans make no difference and home field advantage is just due to comfort/travel/familiarity? And last at bat... (If we don't know this already). Eh, they were also 21-7 on the road, so it's not like there was an enormous difference. But yeah, home field in baseball is always a "thing," at least in part to having last at-bat. That said, the Nationals aren't that close to the other three teams in the division. The four GCL East teams are all on the Atlantic coast of Florida, but the Nationals (Melbourne) are at least an hour from Marlins (Jupiter, 1:37), Cardinals (Palm Beach, 1:52), and Mets (Port St. Lucie, 1:09), and the other three teams are w/in an hour of each other. If players are getting up to take the bus for noon games, that probably helps the home field advantage a bit too. That said, you'd expect the Nationals to have a poorer road record if it mattered that much. BTW, 3:21 between Fort Myers and Melbourne. And another FYI, Chris Young (the pitcher) is rehabbing in the GCL for the Nationals right now. My guess is he'd go in a game 3 if necessary. Of course, the GCL Sox have Pat Light, who would be due to pitch today if he's not getting activated yet.
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Post by quintanariffic on Aug 31, 2013 17:48:44 GMT -5
Hope all you want, but he is NOT ready for prime time. And even with the impending callup of extra pitchers, we don't need a 5-inning starter. Hits allowed in a single outing can be completely misleading. Any time that figure seems out of whack with the SO, BB, and HR allowed, or any time you really want to know how good a guy was, you really have to click on "recap" and read the game log. Check to see how many line drive hits there were (none, in this case). See how they did on ground balls -- only one in four is a hit as a rule, and any difference from that is usually luck. If you exclude fly ball doubles, triples, and homers (which can be assumed to have been legit), only one in twenty other fly balls is a hit, so any fly ball single can be assumed to have been a lucky bloop. And one in three line drives is at a fielder. Buchholz pitched well enough to get to nearly 5 IP. After one more rehab start, that shouldn't be an issue for the 9/10 start against Tampa. Hmm. That's weird. According to someone who actually, you know, saw the game ( the ProJo's Tim Britton), most of the hits were line drives. Get off the computer Eric, and consider a drive down 95 to Pawtucket. You got run from Sosh for this same sort of lazy, arm chair garbage.
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