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Post by raftsox on Oct 8, 2013 8:08:40 GMT -5
The QO is going to kill Salty's market, if last year is any indication of things. It will also kill Drew and Napoli. I still think Drew's market will be fine with a QO attached to him. He's the best shortstop on the market, this season was a test to see if he was healthy and I think he proved that. Napoli is unlikely to have a good market if he gets a QO; between his hip and performance questions. Salty picked a poor year to be a FA catcher. I don't know how he would be effected by a QO, there are several other viable starters in McCann and Ruiz. Someone would have to assume that 2013 is a reflection of his skills going forward rather than an aberrant BABIP fueled season. Either way, I think Salty has clearly earned a QO which was not something I would have said even in July.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 8, 2013 8:54:56 GMT -5
All of the players with QOs last season ended up signing lucrative deals. There weren't too many to begin with but they hurt the market value of the non top tier guys. Bourne is a perfect example. Bourn is a very good example. Not a great player and entering his 30's, he declined the QO and still managed a 4-year deal at $12M per, plus a 5th year that may vest. Yes, it dings the player's value a little and may limit their market, but in the end they got paid far more than 1x$13.3.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,171
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Post by jimoh on Oct 8, 2013 14:53:19 GMT -5
Sorry not to be able to find this myself but can someone cite a page that gives the estimated dollar value -- not how much you can pay them but how much they are worth-- of first and early second round picks? That's what team give up by singing a player with a QO , right?
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Post by okin15 on Oct 8, 2013 16:33:10 GMT -5
This gives some tiered numbers www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picksI'm trying to think through this though. The actual cost is value of the player lost minus what would have been spent to acquire him, so actually, the net value in those tables, not the market rate. A 16-31 pick is worth about 7.5 million, so if you spread that over a few years, you get the approximate discount a player would have to take in a just world. More than happy to have people point holes in my logic if i'm missing something.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 8, 2013 17:06:42 GMT -5
Not sure which multi year contract is worse. A 3y, say 3/40-45 for Drew or Salty.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,171
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Post by jimoh on Oct 8, 2013 17:50:37 GMT -5
This gives some tiered numbers www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picksI'm trying to think through this though. The actual cost is value of the player lost minus what would have been spent to acquire him, so actually, the net value in those tables, not the market rate. A 16-31 pick is worth about 7.5 million, so if you spread that over a few years, you get the approximate discount a player would have to take in a just world. More than happy to have people point holes in my logic if i'm missing something. Thanks. If you treat it like a posting fee, then a team who thinks Salty without a QO is worth 32.5 over three years should only be willing to pay 25 if he has a QO. Obviously a team losing a 2nd round pick loses less value (average of 3.6M), so they could pay $30M Bourne's 4/48 is good money but clearly depressed by the QO, right?.
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Post by jmei on Oct 8, 2013 18:11:38 GMT -5
Bourne's 4/48 is good money but clearly depressed by the QO, right?. I think it was more that he ran out of teams who needed a starting center fielder.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,171
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Post by jimoh on Oct 8, 2013 20:04:16 GMT -5
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 8, 2013 20:25:01 GMT -5
I am no Mets fan, but it was a crock that they were going to be penalized for that sign because Pittsburgh wouldn't settle with Appel the year before.
I also think that teams who refuse to come to terms with 1st-2nd round picks, especially now with slotting should be only awarded a pick at the *end* of that particular round to force them to attempt harder to work out a deal.
We all know that teams and players are talking before the draft and some numbers being flipped back and forth. There are very few Garret Coles who change their minds and go to college at the last minute. Lose the pick and stop this hurt every team the next year because one team refuses to negotiate properly and in some cases (not Pittsburgh here) have a long history of being cheap.
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Post by pedey on Oct 10, 2013 20:35:41 GMT -5
If Salty does not return, it's not the end of the world for the catching situation in Boston. They still have Lavarnway, who put up a .299/.329/.429 batting line in 82 at-bats. He still has good potential offensively. Although a decent defender behind the dish, he may be in for a position change as well, maybe to first base.
David Ross would be an option too, as he is under contract for next year. But he didn't hit well this year and is more of a back-up catcher, but one of the best at that.
Christian Vazquez would be an option as well. He put up a .287/.375/.391 slash line in the minors, mostly in Portland. He walked more than he struck-out. He is a defensive wizard and can call a good game and can throw out runners very well. The problem is, he has only played 1 game above double-A and I'm not sure if he projects to be a starting or back-up catcher at the major-league level.
A lower-market free agent catcher if the Red Sox wanted to take that route would be Dioner Navarro, Brayan Pena, or A.J Pierzynski. Navarro has great stats as a left-handed hitter.
Any thoughts on in-house catcher options?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 10, 2013 23:43:38 GMT -5
pedeyThe Sox pitchers got spoiled by Varitek and most wouldn't throw to anyone else, then he finally retired and they were forced to start throwing to Salty, now he's a FA and the team seems intent on over spending just for those certain veteran SP because they refuse to throw to Lavarnway the supposed catcher of the future and backup Ross. I think Lavarnway is going to have to move elsewhere for his chance. Sox had it good with 'Tek for too many years and now it is hurting them. Pitchers got spoiled. Farrell and Francona are to blame for not letting Lavarnway into more games. Bobby V used Lava, but of all the times.. Lava had a horrid time of it last year and only this season, against the leagues toughest pitchers did Lava produce. It would be a shock if he makes it past 2014 (the new year) on the 40 man roster and expect the FO to keep the useless Stephen Wright over him, it goes with some of their odd thinking and their treatment over Lavarnway the last season.
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Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2013 14:25:50 GMT -5
I split off the discussion on Steven Wright to its own thread.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 11, 2013 15:50:43 GMT -5
I think McCann should absolutely be option A. We offer Salty a QO and hope to God he declines it. Make a strong push for McCann but if he declines it we do not make a big step back with Lavarnway / Ross to me with Vasquez and Butler as injury back up. I'm not interested in spending money at catcher unless it's a guy with a more proven track record like McCann who has hit better historically and might even improve in Fenway. He is also clearly better defensively in terms of PB, stolen base prevention and ability to stop wild pitches. I'm not buying the pitch framing BS. That is more likely due to Salty working so much with veteran pitchers.
Salty hits around .230- .240 for 4 years in a row and boom he hits .270 one year and we put him near McCann. I don't think so. And McCann is clearly better defensively.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 11, 2013 17:15:18 GMT -5
I split off the discussion on Steven Wright to its own thread. Split it to the discard pile JMEI, it's not exactly old news my feelings toward Wright and how useful he is on the 40 man. I've been saying the exact same thing since came back here so this great forum several months ago and only recently did several members seem to notice.
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Post by mainesox on Oct 11, 2013 19:13:07 GMT -5
I think McCann should absolutely be option A. We offer Salty a QO and hope to God he declines it. Make a strong push for McCann but if he declines it we do not make a big step back with Lavarnway / Ross to me with Vasquez and Butler as injury back up. I'm not interested in spending money at catcher unless it's a guy with a more proven track record like McCann who has hit better historically and might even improve in Fenway. He is also clearly better defensively in terms of PB, stolen base prevention and ability to stop wild pitches. I'm not buying the pitch framing BS. That is more likely due to Salty working so much with veteran pitchers. Salty hits around .230- .240 for 4 years in a row and boom he hits .270 one year and we put him near McCann. I don't think so. And McCann is clearly better defensively. Do. Not. Want. I've been leery of him because of the wear and tear he's taken in his career (more than twice as many innings behind the plate than Slaty), and the fact that it'll take a fairly long term contract to sign him, and now the whole 'fun police' act has made me want him even less (in fact, I'll be pretty upset if the Sox sign him; I don't like the guy). For me it's between bringing Salty back, and taking a chance on Carlos Ruiz on a short term deal.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,171
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Post by jimoh on Oct 11, 2013 19:25:58 GMT -5
I think McCann should absolutely be option A. We offer Salty a QO and hope to God he declines it. Make a strong push for McCann but if he declines it we do not make a big step back with Lavarnway / Ross to me with Vasquez and Butler as injury back up. I'm not interested in spending money at catcher unless it's a guy with a more proven track record like McCann who has hit better historically and might even improve in Fenway. He is also clearly better defensively in terms of PB, stolen base prevention and ability to stop wild pitches. I'm not buying the pitch framing BS. That is more likely due to Salty working so much with veteran pitchers. Salty hits around .230- .240 for 4 years in a row and boom he hits .270 one year and we put him near McCann. I don't think so. And McCann is clearly better defensively. Boom he has outhit McCann by OPS for two years in a row. Are we going to start comparing people's batting averages on sox prospects?
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Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2013 21:34:03 GMT -5
McCann's a better player, but he'll probably cost literally twice as much in guaranteed money, is 15 months older, and comes with a lot more tread on his tires. He's a fine option A, but I increasingly believe that he won't sign in Boston for a contract which makes financial sense for the team.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 12, 2013 8:00:33 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 12, 2013 8:04:15 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 12, 2013 8:13:44 GMT -5
I concede the point on McCann's wear and tear though. His doubles numbers have been way down in recent years, which may indicate a lack of speed as he ages. Possibly he doesn't run nearly as well as he did when younger. I wouldn't spend a lot more for him as compared to Salty.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 12, 2013 10:43:57 GMT -5
Over spending on McCann is worse madness than over spending on Salty. The team has a perfect opportunity to get the last year out of Ross and let him start 50% of the games in a platoon situation with Lavarnway before calling up Vazquez later on during the season if they so choose. Butler is at Pawtucket should either falter. The team has options at catcher without wasting resources on a catcher, outside of Salty accepting a QO should he choose that route.
Team has a spare 12-15m annually to use? Appropriate those funds toward an extension aimed at lester, money better spent if can get the contract short enough (3y and an option).
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2013 11:25:20 GMT -5
With his concussion history, I would not count on Ross for more than your typical backup catcher workload (and even then, I'd want an MLB-ready replacement at Pawtucket). Ross missed almost three months with a concussion in 2013, and head injuries are notoriously tricky. One more, and he might have to call it a career. Also, you wouldn't be able to properly platoon Ross with Lavarnway (or with Butler or Vazquez) since they're all right-handed hitters.
If Saltalamacchia leaves and the Red Sox can't sign McCann or Ruiz, I think there's pretty much zero chance that they trust the position to Ross and Lavarnway, based on how sparingly the FO trusted Lavarnway when Ross was out in 2013. They'd probably want to get a guy like A.J. Pierzynski (who hits lefty) as a one-year stopgap and platoon him with Ross. Lavarnway has an option left, and while having all three of Lavarnway, Butler, and Vazquez at Pawtucket is less than ideal, I don't think any of the three will break camp with the major league team next year. In fact, I'd be surprised if all three are still in the organization by next spring-- I think either Lavarnway or Butler gets traded this offseason.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2013 11:42:08 GMT -5
Over spending on McCann is worse madness than over spending on Salty. The team has a perfect opportunity to get the last year out of Ross and let him start 50% of the games in a platoon situation with Lavarnway before calling up Vazquez later on during the season if they so choose. Butler is at Pawtucket should either falter. The team has options at catcher without wasting resources on a catcher, outside of Salty accepting a QO should he choose that route. Team has a spare 12-15m annually to use? Appropriate those funds toward an extension aimed at lester, money better spent if can get the contract short enough (3y and an option). Madness is quitting your job because your certain your lottery ticket is a winner; this is essentially what you are proposing. Like most of us I like Vazquez and Swihart. I also haven't completely given up on Lavarnway. But proposing this only makes sense if you have a small budget team, or so many holes that you can't afford to fill this one. There is no reason to leave a gaping hole on the major league roster when there are perfectly good options out there. If you don't like Salty or McCann then get Ruiz. If he doesn't pan out then you STILL have the same options you propose and only wasted 5-8mil (estimated) of the owners money. There are so few holes (C, OF, 1B, RP, backup SS) and so much available cash (about $60 mil by my estimates) that the Red Sox would have to grab ALL of the top FAs at those position to threaten going over the luxury tax. And the luxury tax goes UP after next year with even MORE money coming off the books. And don't forget, if you were to sign McCann or Salty to a multi-year deal and they perform as expected, you still have the option to trade either one of them and go with the young guys if you like. Superfluous players aren't a bad thing, and if Cherrington proved anything this year it's that quality depth will get you to the playoffs. Let Lavarnway or Vazquez do something to earn a starting job and then worry about the 'too many good players' problem next.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 12, 2013 13:07:03 GMT -5
With his concussion history, I would not count on Ross for more than your typical backup catcher workload (and even then, I'd want an MLB-ready replacement at Pawtucket). Ross missed almost three months with a concussion in 2013, and head injuries are notoriously tricky. One more, and he might have to call it a career. Also, you wouldn't be able to properly platoon Ross with Lavarnway (or with Butler or Vazquez) since they're all right-handed hitters. If Saltalamacchia leaves and the Red Sox can't sign McCann or Ruiz, I think there's pretty much zero chance that they trust the position to Ross and Lavarnway, based on how sparingly the FO trusted Lavarnway when Ross was out in 2013. They'd probably want to get a guy like A.J. Pierzynski (who hits lefty) as a one-year stopgap and platoon him with Ross. Lavarnway has an option left, and while having all three of Lavarnway, Butler, and Vazquez at Pawtucket is less than ideal, I don't think any of the three will break camp with the major league team next year. In fact, I'd be surprised if all three are still in the organization by next spring-- I think either Lavarnway or Butler gets traded this offseason. Think it was Farrell and his listening to the SP not wanting anyone else over Salty to throw to was why Lavarnway got into so few games last year and nothing else. Neither is what anyone would call a defensive 1st catcher and Lavarnway would be the guy I'd expect to develop better into a catch and throw guy eventually. It's more about those veteran pitchers trusting him more, just like those same ones having to get used to Salty when Tek hung up his cletes finally and they had no choice. The concussion issues for Ross? I agree with you 100%. Ross himself has addressed that with the old conservative style helmet with extra padding. Should they still return (side effects) the team still has Dan Butler and Vazquez and could always ink a Taylor Teagarden type to a minor league deal and stick at Pawtucket. The team doesn't really need to have a LH/RH platoon at the position. Look at how Farrell handled SS with Drew last year when he couldn't hit lefties as an example... The thought of not inking Salty to a new contract (past like 3/24-26m tops) or going after McCann is more about not giving away bad contracts than anything else, not penny pinching with a large market team. Look how good the team did last year. They chased good guys on good contracts. The only 2 myself figured would be busts I was 50% on. Dempster, the NL guy was (in my mind) the bust he was and Gomes? I wanted Ross back, but Gomes was terrific. Take the 35m+. Maybe even upwards of 50 Salty will end up with and give it to Lester. Boston is going to lose Peavy and Lester for certain after 2014 without extensions. Dempster will be gone. The team can replace 1 (hopefully) with Workman, then hopefully another with Barnes. Then it gets tricky prediction on Ranaudo and Owens. The rest? RDLR? Webster? I see them as relievers eventually and lets not forget that Lackey is gone after 2015. That mega contract some are wanting to throw out for Salty/McCann is just not needed. He doesn't hit well enough, certainly isn't as good of a defensive catcher to warrant 12m+ a year spread over 3+ seasons and Boston will have his replacement in another year, short term at least in Vazquez by the end of next year and long term in another 2 in Swihart. It's just burning money.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 12, 2013 13:09:30 GMT -5
Over spending on McCann is worse madness than over spending on Salty. The team has a perfect opportunity to get the last year out of Ross and let him start 50% of the games in a platoon situation with Lavarnway before calling up Vazquez later on during the season if they so choose. Butler is at Pawtucket should either falter. The team has options at catcher without wasting resources on a catcher, outside of Salty accepting a QO should he choose that route. Team has a spare 12-15m annually to use? Appropriate those funds toward an extension aimed at lester, money better spent if can get the contract short enough (3y and an option). You really need to disabuse yourself of the idea that Ross will play 80 games. That didn't happen this year, despite all the happy talk on the board when he signed, and it won't come close to happening in 2014. He'll be a year older, and a bad concussion deeper into his downside. He's played more than 70 games twice in his career, his age 29-30 seasons. His average over the last six is 53 games, and he played all of 36 regular season games in 2013. Even when he did play, his splits versus right handed pitching were sub-Mendoza, an anemic line of .167/.273/.271. The Sox love having the guy around, and he's a very useful option. But that's all he is: an infrequent option against left handed pitching who's recovery from a bad concussion is still a concern given the battering that all catchers take about the head and shoulders. The team has to hedge his playing time. It would be foolish to do anything less. In this light, a QO to Saltalamacchia makes a lot of sense, if only as a preamble to a 2-3 year deal with the guy. As for McCann, he has the potential to shine brightly on an AL team as a DH/1B/C option, playing enough at the first two so as to maximize his value, while still allowing for a role as a decent catching option. He's a guy I really see the Yankees making a very big push to acquire, someone they would spend money on because they have serious question marks at all three of those positions. Given those skills, I believe he'll easily command upwards of $18 million/year for something like a 3-5 year contract. The Sox will think twice about that.
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