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Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 4, 2013 10:01:14 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Bradley out perform him over that time. Jacoby's ISO will get a bump from 81 games in his new home park, but JBJ will post a higher OBP and play much better defense. It's not a stretch to project JBJ to average 3 WAR over the next 7 years. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacoby put up 25 WAR in the first 4 years of that deal. You just can't look at his WAR history and say "he's only up up X and 2 of those years were good". In 2008 he put up 4.1 WAR, largely based on great defensive value. In 2009 he put up 2.1 WAR largely based on poor defensive value. (Note: I think defensive metrics are incorrectly valuing or incorrectly assigning value) In 2010 he was hurt. In 2011 he was a stud. In 2012 he was hurt. In 2013 he was way above average. It's not even a slight stretch to assume he's a 6 WAR player with 2 more seasons of increasing value without considering the bump in power he'll see playing in Yankee Stadium. I think he's a 7-8 WAR player the next 2 seasons (barring injury). Assuming normal decreases per season after that and you'll have 7.5, 7.5, 6.5, 6. I'm not sure exactly how the aging curve goes, but around his age 35 season you could probably assume some heavier losses in production. So, if we take the ~$6.5M/WAR that fangraphs assumes we'll get $179M of value over the first 4 seasons. This is an EXTREMELY optimistic viewpoint. In Ellsbury's perfect season he put up 8.1 WAR in a year most players peak. Now he's going to suddenly become a superstar with amazing power after the age of 30? I just don't see it. Jacoby's offensive line in 2008 isn't that out of line with his Steamer projections and is also inline with his career numbers if his 2011 season is normalized. I see him as a 4-5 WAR player if he can stay healthy as he's on the wrong side of 30. This is a repeat of the Crawford deal and is only better since it's hard to find a CF. Every year though he seems to get hurt and I question whether he would have played through the injuries this year if it wasn't a walk year. This will be an albatross by year 5. Also, does anyone know if the 8th year is a team or player option? If it's a player or vesting, that's brutal for the MFY.
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Post by klostrophobic on Dec 4, 2013 10:47:51 GMT -5
In 6 years, #5 starters are going to get 20 million per year salaries.
Farewell, Jacoby. Enjoy your MVP next year.
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,823
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Post by wcp3 on Dec 4, 2013 10:52:50 GMT -5
I don't think it's a stretch to say the Yankees are one of the worst organizations in baseball. Define "worst". Consistently making one poor decision after another, and never learning from their past mistakes. They have the money to cover up a lot of bad decisions, but it doesn't change the fact that they seem to make an inordinate amount of poor choices.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 4, 2013 10:59:11 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacoby put up 25 WAR in the first 4 years of that deal. You just can't look at his WAR history and say "he's only up up X and 2 of those years were good". In 2008 he put up 4.1 WAR, largely based on great defensive value. In 2009 he put up 2.1 WAR largely based on poor defensive value. (Note: I think defensive metrics are incorrectly valuing or incorrectly assigning value) In 2010 he was hurt. In 2011 he was a stud. In 2012 he was hurt. In 2013 he was way above average. It's not even a slight stretch to assume he's a 6 WAR player with 2 more seasons of increasing value without considering the bump in power he'll see playing in Yankee Stadium. I think he's a 7-8 WAR player the next 2 seasons (barring injury). Assuming normal decreases per season after that and you'll have 7.5, 7.5, 6.5, 6. I'm not sure exactly how the aging curve goes, but around his age 35 season you could probably assume some heavier losses in production. So, if we take the ~$6.5M/WAR that fangraphs assumes we'll get $179M of value over the first 4 seasons. This is an EXTREMELY optimistic viewpoint. In Ellsbury's perfect season he put up 8.1 WAR in a year most players peak. Now he's going to suddenly become a superstar with amazing power after the age of 30? I just don't see it. Jacoby's offensive line in 2008 isn't that out of line with his Steamer projections and is also inline with his career numbers if his 2011 season is normalized. I see him as a 4-5 WAR player if he can stay healthy as he's on the wrong side of 30. This is a repeat of the Crawford deal and is only better since it's hard to find a CF. Every year though he seems to get hurt and I question whether he would have played through the injuries this year if it wasn't a walk year. This will be an albatross by year 5. Also, does anyone know if the 8th year is a team or player option? If it's a player or vesting, that's brutal for the MFY. I agree completely that this is an extreme projection. I wonder about the park effect. I don't recall a ton of Fenway warning track outs that become MFY homers. Also, won't home RF triples drop as well as LF wall ball doubles?
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Post by sammo420 on Dec 4, 2013 11:01:27 GMT -5
Consistently making one poor decision after another, and never learning from their past mistakes. They have the money to cover up a lot of bad decisions, but it doesn't change the fact that they seem to make an inordinate amount of poor choices. I agree, remember when them signing Tex and A-Rod was the end of the world? I really could care less about him going to NY and after seeing the details of the deal I actually kind of like it as it handcuffs them in the future with a player that I feel won't be worth it.
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Post by MLBDreams on Dec 4, 2013 11:02:27 GMT -5
Not surprise by his departure. We knew that since Jacoby couldn't say he loved the city, the team & wanted to stay here for lifetime like Dustin Pedrioa does. He cares about himself. The Yankees will find out hard way & will pissing off by him not playing hurt (look @ seasons 2010 & 2012) & stuck by paying him with huge contract. Definitely overpay for his leadoff line up, speed & OF defense. Hope that Cano will not resign with the Yankees due to large gap in contract terms. I can't see them winning WS without Cano & pitching depth.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 4, 2013 11:09:09 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacoby put up 25 WAR in the first 4 years of that deal. You just can't look at his WAR history and say "he's only up up X and 2 of those years were good". In 2008 he put up 4.1 WAR, largely based on great defensive value. In 2009 he put up 2.1 WAR largely based on poor defensive value. (Note: I think defensive metrics are incorrectly valuing or incorrectly assigning value) In 2010 he was hurt. In 2011 he was a stud. In 2012 he was hurt. In 2013 he was way above average. It's not even a slight stretch to assume he's a 6 WAR player with 2 more seasons of increasing value without considering the bump in power he'll see playing in Yankee Stadium. I think he's a 7-8 WAR player the next 2 seasons (barring injury). Assuming normal decreases per season after that and you'll have 7.5, 7.5, 6.5, 6. I'm not sure exactly how the aging curve goes, but around his age 35 season you could probably assume some heavier losses in production. So, if we take the ~$6.5M/WAR that fangraphs assumes we'll get $179M of value over the first 4 seasons. This is an EXTREMELY optimistic viewpoint. In Ellsbury's perfect season he put up 8.1 WAR in a year most players peak. Now he's going to suddenly become a superstar with amazing power after the age of 30? I just don't see it. Jacoby's offensive line in 2008 isn't that out of line with his Steamer projections and is also inline with his career numbers if his 2011 season is normalized. I see him as a 4-5 WAR player if he can stay healthy as he's on the wrong side of 30. This is a repeat of the Crawford deal and is only better since it's hard to find a CF. Every year though he seems to get hurt and I question whether he would have played through the injuries this year if it wasn't a walk year. This will be an albatross by year 5. Also, does anyone know if the 8th year is a team or player option? If it's a player or vesting, that's brutal for the MFY. First off; I used Fangraphs #s, so his best season was 9.1 WAR. Secondly; I think Steamer is wrong here. It's taking into account his injured 2012 which should be completely ignored. I find it very hard to believe that his offense will drop to his lowest full-season production since 2009, and that his defense will drop to its lowest full-season value since 2009 also. As I said before: I dislike defensive metrics in their current incarnation, but absent anything else I'll use them. He was a 5.8 WAR player in 2013, as season in which he was: A. recovering from a shoulder injury, and B. only played 134 games Assuming he's regained his health and that he'll play 150 games, he's a 6.5 WAR player. Add into that that he should see some additional increase in power by playing half his games in Yankee Stadium it's not a stretch to say he'll be a 7+ WAR player for the next season or two. If you think he's a 4-5 WAR player, you're fooling yourself. Regarding the whole Crawford comparison: read the last several articles about Ellsbury on Fangraphs. They basically show that Ellsbury is way more likely to NOT be Crawford than he is to be Crawford. Also: the point of that contract wasn't to make avoid albatross seasons later on, but to get the surplus value in the early years and deal with the bad years when they come. Even if he's "only" worth and average of 5.5 WAR for the first 4 seasons that's still $143M of value there. He would only need 2 combined WAR in the next 3 seasons to exceed his contract value. It's not about getting value out of each season, it's about getting value out of the entire contract. If you were trying to get accurate value from each season then you would pay him $30M for each of the first 4 seasons and $6M for each of the remaining seasons. However, players don't like to do that.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2013 11:18:14 GMT -5
He was a 5.8 WAR player in 2013, as season in which he was: A. recovering from a shoulder injury, and B. only played 134 games Assuming he's regained his health and that he'll play 150 games, he's a 6.5 WAR player. Add into that that he should see some additional increase in power by playing half his games in Yankee Stadium it's not a stretch to say he'll be a 7+ WAR player for the next season or two. If you think he's a 4-5 WAR player, you're fooling yourself. The issue with this reasoning is that it's pretty easy to make an argument that he overachieved in a number of areas in 2013. His power might improve with the change in parks and any lingering recovery from his shoulder injury, but his BABIP, baserunning, and defense will likely regress. I agree that the Steamer projection is way too pessimistic (projection systems can't take into account injury), but he's probably not much more than a 5-5.5 win player next year. In other words, your projection is basically assuming that he'll do everything well in 2014 (i.e., stay healthy, reach his power peak, maintain elite baserunning/defense numbers, do well on balls in play), which is not how you should construct a median projection.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2013 11:21:43 GMT -5
One data point that we don't know (unless I've missed some news) and the teams might have a good indication of when approaching mega-deals - the level of the luxury 'cap' 4-7 years from now.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 4, 2013 11:23:55 GMT -5
One data point that we don't know (unless I've missed some news) and the teams might have a good indication of when approaching mega-deals - the level of the luxury 'cap' 4-7 years from now. Agreed. The next CBA should see a huge boost in the cap. It's pretty likely that $22 million in 2020 is going to be like $12-14 million in today's money. Not inconsequential, but unlikely to handicap a rich team.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 4, 2013 11:32:32 GMT -5
This is an EXTREMELY optimistic viewpoint. In Ellsbury's perfect season he put up 8.1 WAR in a year most players peak. Now he's going to suddenly become a superstar with amazing power after the age of 30? I just don't see it. Jacoby's offensive line in 2008 isn't that out of line with his Steamer projections and is also inline with his career numbers if his 2011 season is normalized. I see him as a 4-5 WAR player if he can stay healthy as he's on the wrong side of 30. This is a repeat of the Crawford deal and is only better since it's hard to find a CF. Every year though he seems to get hurt and I question whether he would have played through the injuries this year if it wasn't a walk year. This will be an albatross by year 5. Also, does anyone know if the 8th year is a team or player option? If it's a player or vesting, that's brutal for the MFY. First off; I used Fangraphs #s, so his best season was 9.1 WAR. Secondly; I think Steamer is wrong here. It's taking into account his injured 2012 which should be completely ignored. I find it very hard to believe that his offense will drop to his lowest full-season production since 2009, and that his defense will drop to its lowest full-season value since 2009 also. As I said before: I dislike defensive metrics in their current incarnation, but absent anything else I'll use them. He was a 5.8 WAR player in 2013, as season in which he was: A. recovering from a shoulder injury, and B. only played 134 games Assuming he's regained his health and that he'll play 150 games, he's a 6.5 WAR player. Add into that that he should see some additional increase in power by playing half his games in Yankee Stadium it's not a stretch to say he'll be a 7+ WAR player for the next season or two. If you think he's a 4-5 WAR player, you're fooling yourself. Regarding the whole Crawford comparison: read the last several articles about Ellsbury on Fangraphs. They basically show that Ellsbury is way more likely to NOT be Crawford than he is to be Crawford. Also: the point of that contract wasn't to make avoid albatross seasons later on, but to get the surplus value in the early years and deal with the bad years when they come. Even if he's "only" worth and average of 5.5 WAR for the first 4 seasons that's still $143M of value there. He would only need 2 combined WAR in the next 3 seasons to exceed his contract value. It's not about getting value out of each season, it's about getting value out of the entire contract. If you were trying to get accurate value from each season then you would pay him $30M for each of the first 4 seasons and $6M for each of the remaining seasons. However, players don't like to do that. Ellsbury was also in a walk year, which is known for inflating stats. It could be argued that he played harder and through injuries than he normally would since he knew he had millions on the line. If this weren't a contract year, I don't know if he wouldn't have missed more time than he did. Him staying healthy is literally a coin flip and expecting 155 games year in and year out from him is unrealistic since he naturally gets banged up due to his playing style. I don't know how you can say I'm fooling myself into thinking he's a 4-5 win player. His defensive WAR #'s this year were highly generous and I don't think his power numbers will change that dramatically (although the more research inclined folks can surely plot this out on a chart). Aside from Jacoby's prowess on the basepaths, Shane Victorino was a better player than Ellsbury this year. I just don't see how you can think that a player on the wrong side of 30 will suddenly bust out and put up numbers that nothing in his career averages or scouting report indicate he's likely to do so. In my humble opinion, I think he will be injured more often than not and not even put up 20 WAR over the next 4 seasons. His history shows he can't stay healthy, so why would that change as he gets older and breaks down further?
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 4, 2013 11:33:56 GMT -5
One data point that we don't know (unless I've missed some news) and the teams might have a good indication of when approaching mega-deals - the level of the luxury 'cap' 4-7 years from now. Agreed. The next CBA should see a huge boost in the cap. It's pretty likely that $22 million in 2020 is going to be like $12-14 million in today's money. Not inconsequential, but unlikely to handicap a rich team. This is the best point made thus far regarding the Ellsbury contract. The Victorino contract last year seemed crazy, and now its reasonable.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 4, 2013 11:38:28 GMT -5
Agreed. The next CBA should see a huge boost in the cap. It's pretty likely that $22 million in 2020 is going to be like $12-14 million in today's money. Not inconsequential, but unlikely to handicap a rich team. This is the best point made thus far regarding the Ellsbury contract. The Victorino contract last year seemed crazy, and now its reasonable. I see a cap in the future though. Fans will only put up with so many ticket price and cable package increases. The new deals are for a substantial amount of time, but if the cable industry changes then the contracts may not keep rising at a rate this high.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 4, 2013 11:41:24 GMT -5
Interesting, Ellsbury this year had nearly same OPS as Crisp. Crisp had more power, Ellsbury higher OBP. Same type of impact overall offensively.
One point people need to consider in the Ellsbury deal is that he is more valuable to the yankees at this moment than the Red Sox. With the short porch in right, Ellsbury will likely double his home run output in New York. In addition, he adds speed, athleticism and life to a very old baseball team. One final note, Ellsbury just turned thirty. He'll be 33 half way through the contract. I just don't see him losing his speed at that time. Year seven probably will not be great for the Yankees.
In general, teams have to go two years beyond what they would like to secure a top shelf free agent. Epstein noted this. By definition, teams overpay on the free agency market. Overall, not a good or bad deal for the yankees, just ok.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 4, 2013 11:42:09 GMT -5
This is the best point made thus far regarding the Ellsbury contract. The Victorino contract last year seemed crazy, and now its reasonable. I see a cap in the future though. Fans will only put up with so many ticket price and cable package increases. The new deals are for a substantial amount of time, but if the cable industry changes then the contracts may not keep rising at a rate this high. If they break out stations individually, stuff like ESPN, YES and NESN will make even more money, since those are the reason people buy cable packages.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 4, 2013 11:46:15 GMT -5
I see a cap in the future though. Fans will only put up with so many ticket price and cable package increases. The new deals are for a substantial amount of time, but if the cable industry changes then the contracts may not keep rising at a rate this high. If they break out stations individually, stuff like ESPN, YES and NESN will make even more money, since those are the reason people buy cable packages. YES, NESN, and teams that have a national fanbase will likely make a lot more money, but smaller market teams without that kind of following could end up losing out big time.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 4, 2013 11:56:25 GMT -5
If there is more money flowing into the game, it's going to be harder to implement a more restrictive hard cap because both the large market teams and the players will be against it. The biggest financial beneficiaries of a hard cap are the owners of rich teams - they make more money, and it isn't passed along to the players. The current system, with luxury sharing and a soft cap with penalties for exceeding it, benefits everyone.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 4, 2013 12:26:19 GMT -5
There will never be a hard cap. The MLB players union is the most disciplined in sports. The players will absolutely strike and cancel at least one and probably two full seasons in order to avoid a hard cap. Don't doubt the resolve of the players. They can clearly see how strikes have lead to massive gains over the last forty years.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 4, 2013 12:49:32 GMT -5
The issue with this reasoning is that it's pretty easy to make an argument that he overachieved in a number of areas in 2013. His power might improve with the change in parks and any lingering recovery from his shoulder injury, but his BABIP, baserunning, and defense will likely regress. I agree that the Steamer projection is way too pessimistic (projection systems can't take into account injury), but he's probably not much more than a 5-5.5 win player next year. In other words, your projection is basically assuming that he'll do everything well in 2014 (i.e., stay healthy, reach his power peak, maintain elite baserunning/defense numbers, do well on balls in play), which is not how you should construct a median projection. I think it's foolish to assume his defense and baserunning will immediately regress. He's only 30 (interestingly, exactly 1 month younger than me); speed and defense don't usually fall off of a cliff. His SPD score is similar to what it's been every full season he's played, his BABIP is a whopping 5 points higher than his second highest season and is only 13 points higher than his next highest season. He's not regressing to the average, and it's wishful thinking to say that he will. I'll predict he puts up at least a 120wRC+ next season with similar defensive #s.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2013 13:19:56 GMT -5
The issue with this reasoning is that it's pretty easy to make an argument that he overachieved in a number of areas in 2013. His power might improve with the change in parks and any lingering recovery from his shoulder injury, but his BABIP, baserunning, and defense will likely regress. I agree that the Steamer projection is way too pessimistic (projection systems can't take into account injury), but he's probably not much more than a 5-5.5 win player next year. In other words, your projection is basically assuming that he'll do everything well in 2014 (i.e., stay healthy, reach his power peak, maintain elite baserunning/defense numbers, do well on balls in play), which is not how you should construct a median projection. I think it's foolish to assume his defense and baserunning will immediately regress. He's only 30 (interestingly, exactly 1 month younger than me); speed and defense don't usually fall off of a cliff. His SPD score is similar to what it's been every full season he's played, his BABIP is a whopping 5 points higher than his second highest season and is only 13 points higher than his next highest season. He's not regressing to the average, and it's wishful thinking to say that he will. I'll predict he puts up at least a 120wRC+ next season with similar defensive #s. While Ellsbury has always had excellent speed and defense numbers, his marks in those areas in 2013 are well above his career averages, and so we should expect some regression to the mean there on principle. Moreover, while he won't fall off a cliff, defense peaks early and steadily declines through the late-20s and early-30s: ...as does baserunning: ...and so I think it's absolutely fair to include age-based decline in those areas as well. His 2013 BABIP wasn't extreme (especially if you decide to compare it to his next-best seasons, which you really shouldn't do), but if you were a betting man, you'd guess he'd do worse in 2014 than he did in 2013. Again, not falling off a cliff regression, but steady regression in multiple areas that add up to a pretty solid dip in his value. I understand your broader point that if you totally discount his injury-plagued years, Ellsbury looks like an elite player rather than just a very good one. But I don't think you can just totally throw out his 2010/2012, and even if you do, it's just bad projection methodology to hold steady every aspect of his game that he outperformed while also bumping him up in the couple areas that he might have underperformed.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 4, 2013 13:33:51 GMT -5
Look at his full-season stats and rates. Speed: 2008 = 8.2, 2009 = 8.1, 2011 = 6.3, 2013 = 8.2. I fail to see how 2013 is "well above his career averages" unless you only look at the "average" which includes injury seasons. I'm perfectly comfortable ignoring his injury-lost seasons because there were caused by freak accidents rather than soft-tissue problems.
Again: I really dislike the defensive metrics precisely because you can look at Ellsbury to see this. Something like UZR/150 which changes 30 points from one year to the next? Players don't improve or worsen that much. Regardless though: in 2013 his Def value was 12.0 which is right in the middle of his career #s, so again; it's not "well above his career averages".
We'll have to agree to disagree here, I think. I believe that Ellsbury has 2 seasons at similar to slightly greater value than 2013 left in him. After that he'll start to decline but, in total, he will exceed or meet the value of the contract given to him in the first 4 seasons.
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Post by p23w on Dec 4, 2013 13:37:57 GMT -5
I think it's foolish to assume his defense and baserunning will immediately regress. He's only 30 (interestingly, exactly 1 month younger than me); speed and defense don't usually fall off of a cliff. His SPD score is similar to what it's been every full season he's played, his BABIP is a whopping 5 points higher than his second highest season and is only 13 points higher than his next highest season. He's not regressing to the average, and it's wishful thinking to say that he will. I'll predict he puts up at least a 120wRC+ next season with similar defensive #s. While Ellsbury has always had excellent speed and defense numbers, his marks in those areas in 2013 are well above his career averages, and so we should expect some regression to the mean there on principle. Moreover, while he won't fall off a cliff, defense peaks early and steadily declines through the late-20s and early-30s: ...as does baserunning: ...and so I think it's absolutely fair to include age-based decline in those areas as well. His 2013 BABIP wasn't extreme (especially if you decide to compare it to his next-best seasons, which you really shouldn't do), but if you were a betting man, you'd guess he'd do worse in 2014 than he did in 2013. Again, not falling off a cliff regression, but steady regression in multiple areas that add up to a pretty solid dip in his value. I understand your broader point that if you totally discount his injury-plagued years, Ellsbury looks like an elite player rather than just a very good one. But I don't think you can just totally throw out his 2010/2012, and even if you do, it's just bad projection methodology to hold steady every aspect of his game that he outperformed while also bumping him up in the couple areas that he might have underperformed. I understand the obsession with empirical "data", but I think you are overlooking the obvious. 1) Ellsbury has gained 15 lbs. since his rookie year. 15 Solid pounds. 2) I would submit that this extra "strength" has had a negligible affect on his speed, but will translate into greater power production given another year for his shoulder to heal, an off-season for his stress fractured foot to mend and the friendly confines of his new home field. 3) Ellsbury has quietly, but efficiently, done a lot of on the job learning. He has studied pitchers and improved his SB% markedly (to the point where he was 6/7 in the post season WITH a stress fractured foot). Stealing bases is not ALL about speed. Ellsbury has learned this and it should serve him well as he ages. Let';s just hope this doesn't rub off on Brett Gardner,
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2013 13:55:52 GMT -5
I think we have a tendency to label contracts good or bad when it can be a different thing depending upon when you look at it. Sabathia's contract looks like an albatross now. Certainly didn't in 2009 when he was leading NY to a championship and he was very good the first four seasons.
Teixeira likewise was highly effective in 2009. John Lackey looked like a total bust in 2011 and 2012, and looked pretty good in 2013. Keith Foulke's deal resulted in only one solid season, but oh what a season, and great timing it was.
I guess for Ellsbury it comes down to WHEN and how much of his contract seems worthwhile for the Yankees. It will surely be a lousy contract by time he's 36, but how long will it be an effective contract for them is the question.
I hate seeing the Yanks swoop in and steal Sox players and while this one doesn't bother me as much, I am dreading the day in December 2019, perhaps around 100 years to the date that Babe Ruth became a Yankee, when a young 27 year old infielder who could very well be on a Hall of Fame career path becomes a free agent and the Yanks have $350 million to lavish on a 10 year deal for Xander Bogaerts. While you can't worry about that scenario here in 2013, it's certainly a possibility by then given that Xander will probably be every bit the star we all think he'll be and that Bora$ is his agent and that he'll still be quite young when his six years of service are up and the Yankees will still be the Yankees. That's the one that could sting the most, much more than Damon or Ellsbury could.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 4, 2013 13:56:50 GMT -5
Look at his full-season stats and rates. Speed: 2008 = 8.2, 2009 = 8.1, 2011 = 6.3, 2013 = 8.2. I fail to see how 2013 is "well above his career averages" unless you only look at the "average" which includes injury seasons. I'm perfectly comfortable ignoring his injury-lost seasons because there were caused by freak accidents rather than soft-tissue problems. Again: I really dislike the defensive metrics precisely because you can look at Ellsbury to see this. Something like UZR/150 which changes 30 points from one year to the next? Players don't improve or worsen that much. Regardless though: in 2013 his Def value was 12.0 which is right in the middle of his career #s, so again; it's not "well above his career averages". We'll have to agree to disagree here, I think. I believe that Ellsbury has 2 seasons at similar to slightly greater value than 2013 left in him. After that he'll start to decline but, in total, he will exceed or meet the value of the contract given to him in the first 4 seasons. Right, just like home run totals. Players don't hit 32 in one season and never crack 10 in any other year, wild fluctuations in performance just doesn't happen like that.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 4, 2013 14:06:45 GMT -5
Right, just like home run totals. Players don't hit 32 in one season and never crack 10 in any other year, wild fluctuations in performance just doesn't happen like that. Come on Beasley, you're better than that. You know defense is a different animal.
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