Andrus/Profar

I'd love a full Antillean left side of the infield for the next 15 seasons.

Not sure if I agree with that assessment, esp if they move Andrus money and are able to plug Profar into SS - that frees up a lot of cash for the to "win now" via free agency.

But if it is so defined then I'd say Doubront, Middlebrooks, Bradley, maybe Webster and Cecchini (I believe Cecchini is a year away but could start for 12 MLB teams right now, but Texas isn't one of them). Some pieces to play with depending on what you do via free agency or other deals. For example, you get Tanaka, yeah you can trade Doubront for max return. You sign Ells, Bradley could be included in a larger package as a second guy.

Not saying any of this is happening or works for Texas but, like a lotta Sox deals, you can always bring in a 3rd team. And I am guessing if it's Profar, the package only needs 1 win now (or soon) guy and the rest could be within a year or so to MLB since he didn't start for them last year.

C'mon man, none of this is realistic. Middlebrooks/Cecchini aren't very appealing to a team with Adrian Beltre for two more years. Leonys Martin is basically a poor man's Bradley. Every team needs more pitching, but you don't think the Rangers can do better than Doubront and Webster? I mean, the popular hypothetical trades are Andrus for Shelby Miller or Profar for Stanton/Price, and even those proposed deals have a lot of folks thinking Texas can do better. There just isn't a match there unless the Red Sox are willing to discuss Bogaerts or Buchholz.

Just to be clear, that wasn't what I think it would take to get Andrus, I was just adding to a list of potential "win now" players. I was just saying I'm not sure it would be a "win now" package esp if they use Andrus' money for free agents and because deleting one of Adrus/Profar from their roster means the other is the SS, and what you get is either money to sign FAs in areas of need to win now, or parts to repackage for win-now players - or both.

Bottom line: I think Andrus or Profar would cost you roughly the same as what it would take to get Price or Stanton, i.e. some combination of Doubront + Owens + 1 of Swihart/Marrero/Betts + 1 of Ranaudo/ Barnes/ Webster/Middlebrooks/Cecchini.

So prob 4 or 5 players over all but at least 3 of your top 5 prospects not named Bogaerts, plus Doubront - or a combination similar to that. So yeah, a ton.

Andrus only counts for $4.8m against the luxury tax and actually gets paid $6.475m in 2014. His big-money contract doesn't kick in until 2015, so Texas won't be moving him this offseason to save money.


That's just the thing-- I don't think there is any scenario in which those chips are enough to get a trade done with Texas unless a third team gets involved, for reasons I discussed above. (The same is true, to a lesser extent, with respect to a possible trade for David Price.) Texas and Tampa Bay will only make a trade for a package that meaningfully helps their team in 2014, and the Red Sox don't really have any blue-chip MLB-ready prospects that fit with Texas/Tampa Bay's roster.

Bogaerts, Pedroia, and...? But yeah, that's how I feel about it too.

How about the following 3 team deal?

Red Sox get: Andrus/Profar

Red Sox play Profar/Andrus as SS with Bogaerts shifting to 3B

Rangers get: Doubront + Aramis Ramirez + Aoki

Rangers play Aoki as a quality OF & leadoff man and move Ramirez to 1B/DH as a power bat.

Brewers get: Middlebrooks + Webster/Ranaudo/Barnes

Brewers wants Middlebrooks and pitching. Ramirez and Aoki likely won't be there for more than another year (Aoki has a FA clause)

Aoki a 4th OF?? Steamers projects 289/355/397 - hell of a 4th OF and a likely upgrade over Nelson Cruz.

I thought a starting OF who can hit 2nd, starting power bat at 1B/DH and young quality starter was a solid haul - but I'm also not as high on Profar (think he is too raw and they rushed him for no reason) as many and Andrus is coming off a down year.

Steamers projects the following WAR for 2014:
Andrus = 3.3
Doubront = 2.4
Ramirez = 2.7 (likely low)
Aoki = 1.8

It's a short term decision - but it likely makes them a much better team next year at a reasonable $ cost - assuming Profar is the real deal.

What would you add onto that to sweeten the pot? Was trying to give them a 'win now' package.

You can quibble with some of my exact characterizations, but I still think you're grossly misjudging Andrus' trade value. I made a similar point in an earlier post-- when a team like the Rangers already has averagish options, you have to look at the marginal upgrade and can't just add up the WARs of the incoming players. The following exercise is highly speculative, but highlights my point:

In right field, the Rangers already have Craig Gentry, who Steamer projects to accumulate 2.4 fWAR per 600 PAs. That's a better player than Aoki, which means Aoki is only as valuable to the Rangers as the difference between him and their fourth outfielder (let's generously say half a win). Mitch Moreland's projected 1.4 fWAR/600 PAs means Ramirez gets you only a couple wins (let's say 2) and Doubront's 3.3 fWAR per 200 IP is only a slight upgrade on Matt Harrison's 2.7 mark. Even if we assume Profar replaces Andrus' production (not a great proposition), that means this trade improves the Rangers in 2014 only by around three wins. But it also costs them more money-- Ramirez, Aoki, and Doubront combine to make $18m in 2014, while Andrus only costs $6.5m. That's a net cost of $11.5m for three wins, which is very good but not great value. The problem comes after 2014-- Aoki and Ramirez are free agents (assuming one side declines the $14m mutual option), while Doubront enters his first arb year. Meanwhile, Andrus is still under team control for eight more years at a (slightly) below-market rate, meaning the Rangers get hosed on the back end. (There are a lot of other details that factor into this analysis , but this is already a huge wall of text, so...)

More importantly, you're still ignoring the opportunity cost. St. Louis is widely rumored to be willing to give up a package headlined by Shelby Miller or Matt Adams for Andrus. Those packages are pretty clearly better than anything Boston can offer-- Texas might be slightly better off with the BOS/MIL package in 2014, but having 5 more years of cheap control of a potential All-Star caliber player (and saving a lot more cash) and the fact that quality usually trumps quantity tilts the scales strongly in favor of a St. Louis trade. (This argument only gets stronger if you substitute Profar, by the way-- he's rumored to be the potential centerpiece in a trade for Stanton, Price, or Oscar Taveras-- no chance Boston can compete with that.) I just don't think there's a trade there that would work for both sides.

You realize Andrus' trade value is exactly what other teams think it is, right? And at least one team thinks it's in the neighborhood of Shelby Miller and/or Matt Adams? I mean, you can think his contract is bad, but we have at least two organizations (the Cardinals and, presumably, the Rangers) who disagree.

You are really cherry-picking here. You took the Rangers second best OFer and third best SP (both per steamers) and have them being replaced by the incoming players...According to steamers - if they replace Rios and on of the other SP then there are 2 additional wins to be had which really DOES represent some quality. Also, I'm not proposing that the Rangers release these other players or outright them to the minors - the added depth would strengthen their team as well, so your methodology doesn't quite work either although I do agree that 5 nickels doesn't equal a quarter when it comes to baseball players.

As Rasimon mentions, the article that you use of speculation of a trade for a drastically better shortstop really doesn't add anything to the conversation aside from that the Cardinals 'could' be upgrading their SS position and 'have the chips' to do so. I wouldn't disagree with this at all and if it came to a bidding war for any player, the Cardinals would probably be the winner - but based on their past personnel decisions, they would likely not get into a bidding war.

I was really just using someone else's idea and trying to formulate a trade that would work for Boston, the third party and make the Rangers better - and asked that any additions or changes be offered. I have little interest in making this trade myself as I think there are other issues to focus more closely on for the Red Sox at this time.

I apologize if I took offense at the Aoki comment - just feel that he is one of the most underrated players in the league and would think that he would be a quality #3 OF (or better) on many teams.

This is fair - obviously 'enough' is a bit of a guessing game for all of us. But I don't see anyone pulling the wool over Daniels' eyes.

Since his Blue Jays days - trying to project Alex Rios from year-to-year is a difficult task. If he learned to draw a few more walks - it would be a huge boon to his value.

Do you see any third team that could be used as a middle man to pry Andrus from Texas? Seems that Texas should want a 'big bat' regardless of position as #1 priority, to play DH/1B....maybe they convert Choo?