When does it make sense to forfeit a draft pick?

Ells and Shoo. Would of picked Cano if he was up there.

Most of the decision should relate to cost and need. If Shoo is going to command a 130M contract I am saying no before I even consider the draft pick.

Plus we need to consider the number of first-round picks lost by teams ahead of us in the draft but not in the top 10, who sign someone from another team. The final pick numbers in the comp part of the round, AS WELL AS OUR OWN FIRST ROUND SELECTION, figure to improve at least a little bit if we sign no one on this list other than our own FA.

Does anyone have even slightly informed speculation about how many of the free agents that could potentially be?

I love Ellsbury and was one of the few people that didn't think JBJ was ready last year despite his red-hot spring.

With that said I don't get the logic of bringing Jacoby back. JBJ has nothing left to prove. He's done well in every level now.

I don't think JBJ will replace Ellsbury's performance, but if we can get 85% of the productivity (I pulled that number completely out of my [butt]) at 2.5% of the cost ($20M vs $500K) I don't think it's worth bringing him back. The money would be smarter to be spent elsewhere - somewhere that we are going to be weak.

I said none because I don't think any can be had for reasonable deals.

I WANT ALL FOUR PICKS!!! #DraftJunkie

I didn't see the "When you would otherwise use the pick to pick Brian Johnson" option. Too soon?

I answered this in a vacuum, not really considering the cost. For example, I said yes on McCann because, yes, I think he's worth losing a pick for in a vacuum. However, that doesn't mean he makes the most sense given what he's asking for/likely to receive.

Also answered yes on Ellsbury and Napoli. Those are yes's for me outside of the vacuum as well.

Well, they've tried the high risk approach before, most notably in 2006-08. That got them Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Nick Hagadone, Ryan Dent, Casey Kelly, and Bryan Price. That three-year gap in the system was a huge reason the 2010-12 Red Sox flamed out-- they just didn't have the prospects in the high minors in those years to provide cheap depth and injury fill-ins, especially on the pitching side. I'm not saying one strategy is better than the other, but you have to acknowledge the downsides of drafting upside guys-- it's high risk, high reward.

But in this quote you are extremely underrating Johnson and the like. Brian Johnson likely winds up in the back of an MLB rotation. He's not Adam Mills or Chris Hernandez. Will he ever be a star? Probably not. He's also way less likely to flame out completely.

I think Johnson gets thrown under the bus a little bit more by folks because that 2012 draft looks like it could be pretty bad. The top pick was a great fielding, great baserunning, no-hit shortstop. Next was a high floor, low ceiling LHSP. Third first-rounder has a ceiling of a bullpen guy. Callahan looks good and is probably the guy I'm most excited about. Maddox is already in the bullpen. Buttrey was ok but underwhelming considering his bonus. Augliera, Haley, and Kraus look ok but not necessarily like major leaguers (although Augliera maybe). Minnich doesn't look good. Miller was hurt all year. Watkins isn't playing. The only guys after the 10th who are remotely interesting are Meyers, who is still in short season, and Wendelken, who they traded. A year after that draft, there is only one position player even worth thinking about.

I get why Johnson isn't exciting, but let's not mischaracterize what he is just because the draft sucked overall.

Fastball. (and maybe body type) I've only seen his last Florida start, and it looked like Buehrle stuff. [This site's profile says 89-93 with top 95] Obviously that can work and be work more than a low ceiling (see Buerhle, Uehara), but its more than likely to be a serviceable back end guy.

It's a deeper draft, so I'd like to keep atleast two of our comp. picks and our first rounder. The strength and depth of a draft helps determine how many picks I'd give up.
The Sox need to scout and draft better in my opinion. It'd be wonderful if we could draft and develop like the Cardinals.

Pat Light is probably a reliever, but it doesn't mean he's going to be a reliever in the minors - at least not this early on. Very few Sox pitchers are.

And I know you have a bias against Brian Johnson (like you do against Salty), but he's likely their best chance at a helpful MLB piece, whether you like him or not.