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Post by texs31 on Mar 20, 2013 14:16:36 GMT -5
As a prospect, where his value has as much to do with his tradeability as anything else, I would agree. But if X, Iggy and Middlebrooks all become what we hope (even if Iggy is "just" an all-world glove that can hit enough to hit 9th) don't you try and find a way to get them all in the lineup before you start trading young cost-controlled players just because some of them CAN play the same position?
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Post by nysoxfan on Mar 20, 2013 14:32:13 GMT -5
This is pretty much predicated as well on the question of "if Iglesias hits and WMB keeps doing what he did last year while he was playing"...
I'm confused why the expectation that he has to stay in the IF or that there'd be a trade (especially given the caveat mentioned "if all hit"). Wouldn't it make sense that, given our current OF depth and lack of any realistic potential of an all-star corner OF being produced from the current crop any time soon, that the team would have a good 'problem' at hand if they're solid at SS, 3b, (assume 2B with pedroia) and can fill LF or maybe even RF (scouting reports say he brings a good arm to the table, not sure where exactly it grades out as above-average or plus, or whatnot) with his bat and work on the other corner and 1B from other options internally or elsewhere? And I disagree with the notion that Iglesias being available at short as a serviceable bat isn't at least very close to equal to Xander at short with a plus-plus bat and basically serviceable D, it's as if we're saying that if a guy can hit and can at least be average at short you *have* to keep him there -- wouldn't it make more sense to say keep all the talent, don't trade that is, and fit people in as long as you're not drastically diminishing the value of the hit tool (which really only makes sense if you're keeping a bat on the bench elsewhere because of defense, like in LF or RF if Xander was taking a spot of a brentz while he has proven a good hitter, then clearly it doesn't make sense to keep everyone and a trade makes sense, but if Xander is replacing a Naava type OF and we can fill SS and 3B with players who provide positive value, it sounds all good to me).
Also, I know people aren't really keen on them when talking to those who know what they're actually talking about in the prospect world, but (and hopefully actually ignoring race and focusing on tools) what would be a reasonable comp for Xander at this point -- a guy who's currently a SS with his build/athleticism and experience, likelihood/ability to move off current position, and with the level of impact bat? I feel like Lawrie is close but maybe more athletic/faster version, and maybe a Braun makes sense (although probably same caveat on speed, especially basebath/stealing)? I know people have mentioned Cal because of the SS/3B makeup and likelihood, if talking comps at all, but I think that with the new dynamic that he *could* stick at short, as compared with being younger when comps are more likely (when the player is less known and people are trying to sum someone up for others when referencing them), might change the way we forsee his likely path/future?
Also,
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 20, 2013 15:30:29 GMT -5
As a prospect, where his value has as much to do with his tradeability as anything else, I would agree. But if X, Iggy and Middlebrooks all become what we hope (even if Iggy is "just" an all-world glove that can hit enough to hit 9th) don't you try and find a way to get them all in the lineup before you start trading young cost-controlled players just because some of them CAN play the same position? Define Iggy's value in this scenario. If he's just an average to below major league regular all glove no hit shortstop I don't see the point. If Iglesias becomes an impact player then I'd look at it differently. By saying "hit enough to hit 9th" I'm having a tough time projecting that as more than a league average shortstop and certainly not an impact player. Moving Bogaerts (a potential impact shortstop) to fit an average player in his position makes little to me. People are talking about filling the 1B/LF/RF spots like it's more difficult than finding up the middle players. Iglesias didn't show enough last year to win the job over Mike Aviles. The Red Sox brought in Stephen Drew this year because they didn't want to go all in on Iglesias. Bogaerts might be MLB ready for 2014, and unless Iglesias has a breakout year where he establishes himself they aren't going to consider adjusting their top prospect's plans on the hope they can get value out of Iglesias. Bogaerts bat plays anywhere but if he was LIMITED to 1B/LF/RF his stock wouldn't be as high. Finding all glove no hit shortstops isn't that hard, even if his glove is the best of the bunch. Moving Bogaerts would have an opportunity cost as well, as someone like Brentz would theoretically be blocked in that scenario. Good systems will always have "blocked" players but injuries, busts, and trades happen. The Red Sox should be looking to build around Bogaerts and put him in the position to be the best player possible. Iglesias is not a very valuable commodity right now and needs to breakout in a big way at the MLB level to change that.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 20, 2013 15:53:30 GMT -5
As example, let's say he can be Brendan Ryan even. 2-3 WAR.
Certainly, we hope Xander can contribute more but do you force the trade or keep the 2-3 WAR player AND the superstar (just moving him to another position where he can still provide great value)?
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Post by nysoxfan on Mar 22, 2013 15:04:55 GMT -5
I posted a while back that I wondered about concern with Xander going to the WBC and trainig with non-Sox staff during what could be his most important development offseason of his career. The response wasn't resounding, per se, but was a definitive "nothing to worry about, it'll probably be good." It's interesting to see the quotes coming out in the last couple days where he literally said having to face a string of the Japanese pitchers "really messed with me" (relative to their annoying stop-start windups having a negative impact on his timing) or something along those lines. I assume this is no big deal, but given I'm a pessimist and I kind of already think we're all setting ourselves up for disaapointment following all the offseason prospect accolades for him, but should this be a cause for concern?
Also, is there any precedence for a team blocking a top prospect from playing in the games? I'd be interested in general, long term if teams would ever go that path. As much as I'm on that side of the fence, I do have to admit that it might make a lot of sense, even in spite of the above, when you consider what his absence meant to the rest of the squad -- Jose Iglesias leads all players at camp in at bats from what I've read today... one could probably argue he needs the time with our hitting coaches and in games far more than most others.
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Post by hammerhead on Mar 22, 2013 15:59:53 GMT -5
The more quality pitches he see's whether they come from a start/stop delivery, a 3/4's delivery, a knuckleballer, a submariner or a Gyro Baller the better. Yeah it may take him a few AB's to start to string together some Spring Training hits, but in the long run learning how to identify a variety of styles, ball paths, rotations and breaking balls etc. etc. is great for his development. The more he learns to hit no-matter who he's facing the better off he'll be in the majors. He will see guys who try to throw off your timing in the majors too, it's all good acclimation for him.
As long as he comes back healthy and saw a bunch of good pitchers/ pitches while playing in meaningful (for him) games, then there shouldn't be any problem.... In fact it was probably really good for his development.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 22, 2013 16:29:48 GMT -5
The more quality pitches he see's whether they come from a start/stop delivery, a 3/4's delivery, a knuckleballer, a submariner or a Gyro Baller the better. Yeah it may take him a few AB's to start to string together some Spring Training hits, but in the long run learning how to identify a variety of styles, ball paths, rotations and breaking balls etc. etc. is great for his development. The more he learns to hit no-matter who he's facing the better off he'll be in the majors. He will see guys who try to throw off your timing in the majors too, it's all good acclimation for him. As long as he comes back healthy and saw a bunch of good pitchers/ pitches while playing in meaningful (for him) games, then there shouldn't be any problem.... In fact it was probably really good for his development. Well said. These are ballplayers, not china dolls. He's all of 20 years old, he really enjoyed playing for The Kingdom, and he got to see lots of different pitching styles. That's nothing but good, part of the learning process as the hammer points out.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 22, 2013 17:27:05 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Apr 22, 2013 18:54:17 GMT -5
I would like to hear better reports about Bogaerts mentally dealing with his current struggles.
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 23, 2013 16:34:44 GMT -5
You know the expectations on a kid are sky high when he's hitting 300 with a 350 OBP, albeit with no current power, and he's considered to be struggling mightily. I'm not saying the comments are unjust, just shows you how promising a prospect he is/everyone expects him to be
He's by far and away the most age advanced player in the system at a 3.71 on the SP AAS, more than a full year ahead of JBJ who's second at 2.5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 23, 2013 17:45:28 GMT -5
I would like to hear better reports about Bogaerts mentally dealing with his current struggles. I wouldn't worry about it too much. He's having to deal with failure for the first time ever. Give it time.
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Post by dmaineah on Apr 24, 2013 6:03:28 GMT -5
He sure looks like a Shortstop from what I have seen so far this year, the kid can play.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 24, 2013 10:36:19 GMT -5
I would like to hear better reports about Bogaerts mentally dealing with his current struggles. I wouldn't worry about it too much. He's having to deal with failure for the first time ever. Give it time. Everyone take a deep breath. Baseball's a little different. It requires something the age doesn't nurture very well, patience and perspective. The players have a lot more of that than we do having spent most of their formative years observing the ups and downs of performance - theirs and others. The season in AA is 140+ games long. It's what makes this sport different than others. Somewhere along the line, we'll actually have a large enough sample size to do some analysis and projection. For the players and coaches, I doubt that two weeks worth of baseball is viewed as a success, a failure, or anything else. So it's probably a little early to have Bogaerts, or any of the other players, hit the psycho-analyst's couch. It's just the start of a season, and a cold one at that. We'll want to give this some time, no? A trip down (short-term) memory lane. Despite all his success, the 'big' question about Bogaerts at AA, including questions all over this board right up to the time the season kicked into gear, was about his walk rate. Last year, by the time he'd heated up to white-hot, he was crushing everything that came his way, even after he got to Portland. No need to walk, not enough bad at-bats to even worry about it. Fast forward to this April and his OBP is up around .380. Starts to answer some of those questions in my mind. Now I'm not privy to the development plan for the players. But it stands to reason that putting pitch selection into play, especially for an emerging power hitter, might be pretty high up on the to-do list. After all of eighteen games, we may be starting to see the contours of that development. So let's all watch and see what happens as the season, and the weather, warm up. If he keeps the discipline say 70 - 80 points above the BA, even as his slugging numbers grow, we'll have a good idea what was going on here. As an aside, scouts on this and other sites have mentioned that his contact rate is such as to likely make him a .300+ hitter in the majors, to go along with the power. That's where he seems to be taking his BA in these early days of the season. I'll be interested in that as well. As a whole, the Sea Dogs have a very nice looking roster. Hope all of you take the time to catch a few games.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 24, 2013 19:27:33 GMT -5
I wouldn't worry about it too much. He's having to deal with failure for the first time ever. Give it time. Everyone take a deep breath. Baseball's a little different. It requires something the age doesn't nurture very well, patience and perspective. The players have a lot more of that than we do having spent most of their formative years observing the ups and downs of performance - theirs and others. The season in AA is 140+ games long. It's what makes this sport different than others. Somewhere along the line, we'll actually have a large enough sample size to do some analysis and projection. For the players and coaches, I doubt that two weeks worth of baseball is viewed as a success, a failure, or anything else. So it's probably a little early to have Bogaerts, or any of the other players, hit the psycho-analyst's couch. It's just the start of a season, and a cold one at that. We'll want to give this some time, no? Who is freaking out? I would like to hear that Bogaerts was dealing better with a bad game. Am I making any judgments? No.
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Post by pkelly491 on Apr 24, 2013 22:38:48 GMT -5
I'd say .302/.379/.423 as a 20-year old in AA isn't a bad line. Add the fact that he's just started to heat up, the power should come as the weather gets warmer.
Sure he's not as pure of a hitter as say, Oscar Taveras, but he is still an ELITE prospect. Top 10 in baseball. In my eyes there are only four hitting prospects in baseball I take over him (and two of them are Twins...Taveras, Profar, Buxton, Sano).
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Post by njsox on Apr 26, 2013 15:28:50 GMT -5
Bogaerts #2 on Baseball America's Weekly Hot Sheet
2. Xander Bogaerts, ss, Red Sox
Team: Double-A Portland (Eastern)
Age: 20
Why He’s Here: .440/.548/.720 (11-for-25), 6 R, 1 2B, 3 3B, 5 RBIs, 6 BB, 8 SO, 1-for-1 SB
The Scoop: A 20-year-old in Double-A, Bogaerts took about 10 games to get going, but he’s been scorching the ball lately, with at least one hit in eight of his last nine games and five multi-hit games in that stretch. The strikeouts (24 in 18 games) are a touch high and the over-the-fence power isn’t showing up in games yet, but give it time. By the all-star break you’re going to be wondering when Boston will promote him to Triple-A.
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Post by mdp222 on Apr 29, 2013 15:33:16 GMT -5
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Post by rdsxmbnt on May 12, 2013 11:00:41 GMT -5
I know he's the top guy but Xander should be getting more discussion.
.304/.386/.464/.850 on the season so far. .979 OPS in his last 10 games with 6 BB/8 K in those 38 ABs. Weather is warming up, the power is coming back, and after his 1/21 BB/K in AA last year, his numbers this year look much better.
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Post by burythehammer on May 12, 2013 11:48:54 GMT -5
Yeah. He's pretty good. Pretaaaay good.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 12, 2013 13:16:25 GMT -5
I remember a lot of talk about adjustments in A+ ball, and that the maturity/work ethic was a big reason you could project him reaching his ceiling more than a guy like Almanzar (regardless of the last 18 months). Going into the season, I don't think you care about anything from the first half as he adjusts, and I don't think there is any need to get him to Pawtucket before 2014 (though it looks like it'll happen). There's going to be a ton of talk trying to get him to make the club on Opening Day next year, and look where that got JBJ (as an aside, I nearly lost my mind at the JBJ talk, he had a HALF season at AA and did 'ok') . They hype machine can really mess with a prospect... I'd rather him not really hit Pawtucket until he's legit injury-insurance, and won't be forcing it in a short call-up. (You know, sort of like what the FO did with BBard before changing their mind again last week).
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Post by rjp313jr on May 12, 2013 21:32:16 GMT -5
I remember a lot of talk about adjustments in A+ ball, and that the maturity/work ethic was a big reason you could project him reaching his ceiling more than a guy like Almanzar (regardless of the last 18 months). Going into the season, I don't think you care about anything from the first half as he adjusts, and I don't think there is any need to get him to Pawtucket before 2014 (though it looks like it'll happen). There's going to be a ton of talk trying to get him to make the club on Opening Day next year, and look where that got JBJ (as an aside, I nearly lost my mind at the JBJ talk, he had a HALF season at AA and did 'ok') . They hype machine can really mess with a prospect... I'd rather him not really hit Pawtucket until he's legit injury-insurance, and won't be forcing it in a short call-up. (You know, sort of like what the FO did with BBard before changing their mind again last week). Manny Machado really got screwed up getting called up in a pennant race last year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 12, 2013 22:54:31 GMT -5
Since April 16: .380/.470/.634, hits in 16 of 18 games, 4 2b, 4 3b, 2 hr, 11 BB (and a HBP) and, go figure, 3 SB and 0 CS.
There's something to be said for being patient with a kid from Aruba adjusting to the Northeast spring for the first time.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 13, 2013 8:07:41 GMT -5
And he's only 20 ... btw, where can i easily sort players in the Eastern League by age?
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2013 8:48:46 GMT -5
And he's only 20 ... btw, where can i easily sort players in the Eastern League by age? www.baseball-reference.com/minors/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=f9c8da19&sort_by=AgeThe answer is always Baseball Reference. Doesn't really matter what the question is. Anyhow, with minor league stats, it's better to use the pulldown menu where it says "sort by" rather than just clicking on the statistic. They show the top 100, but if you have the batting average leaders, and simply click on age rather than chance the statistic your sorting category, it will sort the batting average leaders by age.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 13, 2013 9:19:00 GMT -5
Since April 16: .380/.470/.634, hits in 16 of 18 games, 4 2b, 4 3b, 2 hr, 11 BB (and a HBP) and, go figure, 3 SB and 0 CS. There's something to be said for being patient with a kid from Aruba adjusting to the Northeast spring for the first time. I've been to Aruba recently and am going back in a couple months. Once the locals find out your from Boston, they talk about Xander so proudly. Very rarely do they say a lot about his baseball other than to acknowledge how good he is. He's such a role model for that community already because of how great a kid he is while being successful. Sure, you cynics out there are thinking athletes aren't roe models and it is because of him being good on the field not a quality person off of it. I get there are some truths to that, but the community is genuinely happy and excited for him and his family. Regardless of if we root for the jersey or not. It's nice to see good hardworking kids be successful.
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