Post by ehaz on Nov 23, 2013 14:55:35 GMT -5
BOS trades RHP Clay Buchholz, Daniel Nava and Ryan Dempster (subsidized) to WAS for RHH 3B Anthony Rendon, RHP AJ Cole and LHH OF Corey Brown.
Why the Sox do it: You're being proactive and selling high on Clay Buchholz, this is their Myers for Shields trade. By any available injury risk calculator/projection system in baseball Buchholz is one of the most vulnerable to extended time lost. He has never thrown 200 innings nor even managed back-to-back 150+ inning years in nearly 6 seasons of pitching. He's 29 (30 in August), so while regression may not occur immediately, he's no longer on the good side of the pitcher aging curve. 2013 may well be the season peak of his trade value with the club - It wouldn't surprise many to see him put up Cy worthy numbers, but can we reasonably anticipate more than 80-140 IP? Rendon slides into third base, forming along with Bogaerts, the youngest, most exciting left side tandem in baseball. Rendon (23), hit .307/.452/.575 in 36 games between AA/AAA before playing 98 games in the majors with a .265/.329/.396 (99 OPS+) line. He finished the season hot, with .320/.386/.480 line in his last 16 games, and is obviously an immense talent. AJ Cole is a 21 year old pitching prospect (no. 2 overall in WAS behind Gioloto - no way they give Rendon and Gioloto) who split the year between A+ and AA throwing a combined 142.2 innings with a 9.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 (3.6 ERA). Brown (28) is essentially minor league depth, career .835 OPS in AAA and played 15 games in MLB last year. Perhaps most importantly, the trade opens up a spate of possibilities of what to do with the increased young depth to address other concerns. With Rendon at third, theres less of a need for Cecchini and WMB. Acquiring AJ Cole means you can use him in another transaction or feel a little more comfortable trading from the Webster/Barnes/Owens/Ranaudo types. The Sox could also simply hold on to all their young players and out do the Rays/Cardinals in terms of young pitcher production within a year. Furthermore, significant salary is shed from the contracts of Clay, a partially subsidized Dempster and Nava. The Red Sox could easily field a competitive bid for Masahiro Tanaka with that savings, or make a realistic offer with their increased prospect depth for Stanton, or why not both?
The Nats do it because they need starting pitching (yes, they have Stras/Gio/Zimmermann but they're incredibly top heavy and have many question marks at 4/5) and acquiring Buchholz would give them an unbelievable 2014 pitching staff that is WS worthy. They're hoping to win in these coming prime years and add to the core of Harper/Werth/Desmond/Zimmerman(n)s/Gonzalez/Strasburg/Span while it's intact and performing at its peak. Buchholz is signed for 4 years at one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball. He's a potential ace - was the best pitcher in baseball for a third of the season last year and while there are injury concerns, it would be impossible to acquire him otherwise. Nava gives them great depth in the outfield - backing up Werth/Span/Harper, while a cheaper Dempster nails down the #5 spot eating a plethora of innings in a league where he has thrived. Espinosa can hopefully bounce back to being a 1.5-2 win player and hold on to second. Additionally, they'd be well positioned to make a signing such as Peralta/Drew/Infante (maybe even be involved in Cano). Starting pitching is going to be incredibly expensive on the market, as proven by Vargas' deal and what Ervin Santana/Ricky Nolasco have been asking for.
Why the Sox do it: You're being proactive and selling high on Clay Buchholz, this is their Myers for Shields trade. By any available injury risk calculator/projection system in baseball Buchholz is one of the most vulnerable to extended time lost. He has never thrown 200 innings nor even managed back-to-back 150+ inning years in nearly 6 seasons of pitching. He's 29 (30 in August), so while regression may not occur immediately, he's no longer on the good side of the pitcher aging curve. 2013 may well be the season peak of his trade value with the club - It wouldn't surprise many to see him put up Cy worthy numbers, but can we reasonably anticipate more than 80-140 IP? Rendon slides into third base, forming along with Bogaerts, the youngest, most exciting left side tandem in baseball. Rendon (23), hit .307/.452/.575 in 36 games between AA/AAA before playing 98 games in the majors with a .265/.329/.396 (99 OPS+) line. He finished the season hot, with .320/.386/.480 line in his last 16 games, and is obviously an immense talent. AJ Cole is a 21 year old pitching prospect (no. 2 overall in WAS behind Gioloto - no way they give Rendon and Gioloto) who split the year between A+ and AA throwing a combined 142.2 innings with a 9.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 (3.6 ERA). Brown (28) is essentially minor league depth, career .835 OPS in AAA and played 15 games in MLB last year. Perhaps most importantly, the trade opens up a spate of possibilities of what to do with the increased young depth to address other concerns. With Rendon at third, theres less of a need for Cecchini and WMB. Acquiring AJ Cole means you can use him in another transaction or feel a little more comfortable trading from the Webster/Barnes/Owens/Ranaudo types. The Sox could also simply hold on to all their young players and out do the Rays/Cardinals in terms of young pitcher production within a year. Furthermore, significant salary is shed from the contracts of Clay, a partially subsidized Dempster and Nava. The Red Sox could easily field a competitive bid for Masahiro Tanaka with that savings, or make a realistic offer with their increased prospect depth for Stanton, or why not both?
The Nats do it because they need starting pitching (yes, they have Stras/Gio/Zimmermann but they're incredibly top heavy and have many question marks at 4/5) and acquiring Buchholz would give them an unbelievable 2014 pitching staff that is WS worthy. They're hoping to win in these coming prime years and add to the core of Harper/Werth/Desmond/Zimmerman(n)s/Gonzalez/Strasburg/Span while it's intact and performing at its peak. Buchholz is signed for 4 years at one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball. He's a potential ace - was the best pitcher in baseball for a third of the season last year and while there are injury concerns, it would be impossible to acquire him otherwise. Nava gives them great depth in the outfield - backing up Werth/Span/Harper, while a cheaper Dempster nails down the #5 spot eating a plethora of innings in a league where he has thrived. Espinosa can hopefully bounce back to being a 1.5-2 win player and hold on to second. Additionally, they'd be well positioned to make a signing such as Peralta/Drew/Infante (maybe even be involved in Cano). Starting pitching is going to be incredibly expensive on the market, as proven by Vargas' deal and what Ervin Santana/Ricky Nolasco have been asking for.