SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
What happened to Lavarnway's power?
|
Post by mrnewengland on Nov 25, 2013 10:58:59 GMT -5
I've been a Lavarnway fanboy and I am completely ok with him and Ross splitting time next year (and hopefully Vazquez/Swihart can develop).
I knew his power had gone down in the past two years but I didn't realize how badly. Are there any theories on what made his power diminish? Is there an injury that I missed?
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 25, 2013 11:14:56 GMT -5
I think one theory is he dropped weight to improve his defense and durability.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Nov 25, 2013 11:26:42 GMT -5
Don't believe weight has much to do with. He is big enough as it is. Usually, it is a mechanical issue, and he has been experimenting with his swing. True, he has had enough PA in the majors, but even at Triple AAA his home runs decreased significantly. I would look at his double rates anywhoo before I become concerned. He held his own against good pitching in a limited number of appearances last year.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Nov 25, 2013 11:47:33 GMT -5
From memory, he hit one HR in MLB last year and that one was at Fenway, down the left-field line and just over the wall. I remember clips from Pawtucket where he was driving the ball out the opposite way. He is not the same guy regardless of reason.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2013 12:01:07 GMT -5
Lavarnway had a rough 2012. He developed a pretty serious illness in winter league, losing twenty pounds in eight days. As he recovered from that back in the states, he gained a lot of that weight back, but trimmed down again training at API. Presumably, that second attempt to lose weight was an attempt to improve his catcher defense, but it looks like it also hurt his power. Here's some background reading: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2012/01/19/different-situation-awaits-ryan-lavarnway-in-spring-training/fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/02/10/ryan-lavarnway-talks-about-controlling-what-he-can-control/Farrell also mentioned that the competition Lavarnway faced (he played against an above-average number of elite pitchers, I believe) and his inconsistent playing time played into his lack of power in 2013: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2013/08/in_once-a-week_role_a_lot_to_a.htmlI also think Lavarnway might have made a mechanical change going into the 2012 season to focus more on contact and less on power. Comparing his 2011 season at Pawtucket (264 PAs) with his 2012 season there (367 PAs), his strikeout rate declined significantly (22.7% to 16.9%) but so did his power (.317 ISO to .144 ISO). Note that this trend continued in his time at AAA in 2013 (in 214 PAs)-- his strikeout rate was down to 11.7% there, but his ISO also went down to a paltry .100. I couldn't find any scouting reports or news stories about any possible mechanical change, though, so this trend might just be caused by his fluctuating weight. Regardless, ever since 2012, his power at both Pawtucket and in the majors has been way down (he hasn't broken a .150 ISO at any level since then, despite the fact that he had racked up a .150+ ISO at each of the stages of his minor league career before 2012), and I don't know if it'll ever come back. Remember that he was never an elite bat speed guy, and had a reputation for generating a lot of his power though a slight uppercut swing and pouncing on mistake pitches over the plate. There were some indications that he had improved his pull power in 2011, but he still had considerable trouble with inside fastballs. Thus, the power drop may, to some extent, just be the league catching up with him. In the lower minors, being able to work the count means you can wait for inexperienced pitchers to make a mistake over the plate. In the upper minors, it's possible that pitchers are just working Lavarnway better (for example, by pitching him in more) and preventing him from tapping into his power.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2013 12:19:18 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2013 13:54:07 GMT -5
Can confirm that we saw that he changed his swing entering 2012, apparently trying to close some holes and shorten it up.
Co-sign on jmei's post above.
|
|
|
Post by mrnewengland on Nov 25, 2013 14:16:38 GMT -5
Lavarnway had a rough 2012. He developed a pretty serious illness in winter league, losing twenty pounds in eight days. As he recovered from that back in the states, he gained a lot of that weight back, but trimmed down again training at API. Presumably, that second attempt to lose weight was an attempt to improve his catcher defense, but it looks like it also hurt his power. Here's some background reading: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2012/01/19/different-situation-awaits-ryan-lavarnway-in-spring-training/fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/02/10/ryan-lavarnway-talks-about-controlling-what-he-can-control/Farrell also mentioned that the competition Lavarnway faced (he played against an above-average number of elite pitchers, I believe) and his inconsistent playing time played into his lack of power in 2013: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2013/08/in_once-a-week_role_a_lot_to_a.htmlI also think Lavarnway might have made a mechanical change going into the 2012 season to focus more on contact and less on power. Comparing his 2011 season at Pawtucket (264 PAs) with his 2012 season there (367 PAs), his strikeout rate declined significantly (22.7% to 16.9%) but so did his power (.317 ISO to .144 ISO). Note that this trend continued in his time at AAA in 2013 (in 214 PAs)-- his strikeout rate was down to 11.7% there, but his ISO also went down to a paltry .100. I couldn't find any scouting reports or news stories about any possible mechanical change, though, so this trend might just be caused by his fluctuating weight. Regardless, ever since 2012, his power at both Pawtucket and in the majors has been way down (he hasn't broken a .150 ISO at any level since then, despite the fact that he had racked up a .150+ ISO at each of the stages of his minor league career before 2012), and I don't know if it'll ever come back. Remember that he was never an elite bat speed guy, and had a reputation for generating a lot of his power though a slight uppercut swing and pouncing on mistake pitches over the plate. There were some indications that he had improved his pull power in 2011, but he still had considerable trouble with inside fastballs. Thus, the power drop may, to some extent, just be the league catching up with him. In the lower minors, being able to work the count means you can wait for inexperienced pitchers to make a mistake over the plate. In the upper minors, it's possible that pitchers are just working Lavarnway better (for example, by pitching him in more) and preventing him from tapping into his power. Thanks, this is great info.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,015
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 25, 2013 15:43:53 GMT -5
Looking at contact metrics really underscores the size of the decline. Comparing 2013 to 2011, not only is his HR/Contact (HRC) down 81%, but his XBH/Contacts (XBC) is down 44% and his HR/XBH (HRX) is down 65%. Even his 1B% (singles divided by singles plus outs in play) was lower the last two years than the two previous.
In this table, Lvl is average level played at where 1 is GCL and 7 is MLB. You can see his power developing and then disappearing.
Year Lvl K% BB% HRC XBC HRX 1B% 2008 2.0 .220 .098 .038 .132 .286 .174 2009 3.0 .244 .103 .071 .199 .356 .235 2010 4.3 .190 .122 .061 .135 .449 .268 2011 5.6 .215 .108 .094 .163 .576 .251 2012 6.3 .195 .085 .027 .107 .250 .233 2013 6.3 .142 .088 .018 .090 .200 .239
|
|
|
Post by sammo420 on Nov 25, 2013 17:07:35 GMT -5
it is a mechanical issue, and he has been experimenting with his swing. This is what I heard it was on here at one point. He altered his swing to cut down on strikeouts I believe and it worked but it also drained him of most of his power and it hasn't come back yet. Just what I heard in the past from here.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 25, 2013 17:55:35 GMT -5
I have hope that he can regain his power, seems to be adjusting to advanced pitching. I would think the more AB he gets, the better he'll become. Would like to see him get a chance if Salty is not going to be back. At this point it seems he more concerned with his D and OPS, not a bad thing!
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 26, 2013 7:33:23 GMT -5
I think Jmei pretty much nailed it. Add problems with balls in the dirt and you don't have an ideal mix. If a pitcher can't throw his out pitch you have a problem. All that said, it could just be that they told him to work on taking the ball to RF and cutting down the swing to reduce the strikeouts. The guy may just be doing what he was told to do to improve in the minors and optimizing his game in the majors. If that is the case he has been making progress from all indications. He produced in the majors with very intermittent playing time last year against tough competition. Farrell, as a former pitcher would be particularly sensitive to the need for pitchers to have flexibility in their pitch selection. And pitchers may also be saying that behind the scenes. The guy needs to improve on balls in the dirt.
What does he really have to prove in the minors? It would make sense that he is just working on his game. I don't know for sure but that could be part of this. He specifically looked like he was trying to go to RF a lot more. Seems to have changed his approach a lot. Once in a while he still tries to pop one to LF. He doesn't get many opportunities to do that in the majors but over time he will be able to pick his spots more as he learns the pitching.
If it turns out he's an above average hitter for a catcher with maybe some reduced power he still has a role in mlb if he improves defensively with balls in the dirt, which I bet he continues to do.
I wouldn't be surprised if their are culture issues as well. He is from a different world than most of these guys. I worked construction through college some and was reading Bertrand Russell while mason tending bricklayers. Not much of a conversation there. Such things can inherently cause problems. I don't know of course but he is a different kind of guy in some ways. He may not fit in as well. That can be a factor in some clubhouses. Guys need to be able to relate to each other. This is Jonny Gome's clubhouse. That's pretty clear by now isn't it? Pure speculation and labeled as such but it might be relevant. It would seem that he warranted more PT last year as many of us commented when Ross was down.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,121
|
Post by jimoh on Nov 26, 2013 7:48:45 GMT -5
... I wouldn't be surprised if their are culture issues as well. He is from a different world than most of these guys. I worked construction through college some and was reading Bertrand Russell while mason tending bricklayers. Not much of a conversation there. Such things can inherently cause problems. I don't know of course but he is a different kind of guy in some ways. He may not fit in as well. That can be a factor in some clubhouses. Guys need to be able to relate to each other. This is Jonny Gome's clubhouse. That's pretty clear by now isn't it? Pure speculation and labeled as such but it might be relevant. It would seem that he warranted more PT last year as many of us commented when Ross was down. So you don't a shred of evidence that Lavarnway felt out of place, while Breslow did not? Why not speculate that Lavarnway was deep-cover CIA (the Skull and Bones version of Robert Culp on I-Spy) and distracted by the situiation in Iran? Puree speculation but it might be relevant.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2013 8:46:26 GMT -5
Lavarnway has always been a Middlebrooks/Napoli-esque power to all fields hitter who likes to get his arms extended, as opposed to a Cody Ross dead pull power guy. He's always hit the ball to right field well while struggling a bit to pull pitches on the inner half. It's possible the front office told him to try and cut down on the strikeouts (he did have a problem with strikeouts, even during his breakout 2011 year), but he's always been an all-fields hitter.
On the culture stuff-- please, just stop. You have not one shred of evidence for this and are basing it entirely on crude stereotypes. That you acknowledged that it's pure speculation is an improvement; that you still decided to post it is not.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Nov 26, 2013 9:25:45 GMT -5
Come on Jmei. It's a well known fact that baseball players is stupid. I'm sure that Ryan L. is sitting in the locker room in an upholstered corner chair puffing on organic, fair-trade tobacco in a hand crafted pipe, sipping on fine Cognac and reading Tolstoy whilst the remainder of the team funnels Schlitz, fornicates with unclean women and shaves hair from their oversized, cromagnon foreheads.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 26, 2013 10:16:57 GMT -5
I have hope that he can regain his power, seems to be adjusting to advanced pitching. I would think the more AB he gets, the better he'll become. Would like to see him get a chance if Salty is not going to be back. At this point it seems he more concerned with his D and OPS, not a bad thing! This. If Lavarnway can figure out how to hit .280 and OBP .350 with just a little power, that's plenty good enough for me on offense as a catcher. I don't really care if his power comes back (though it would be nice if it did.) The question for everyone is always going to be "Is his defense good enough to be at least adequate in the Majors?"
|
|
|
Post by pedey on Dec 3, 2013 23:06:16 GMT -5
With Pierzynski in Boston, where does this put Lavarnway in 2014?
|
|
|
Post by curiousle on Dec 3, 2013 23:21:56 GMT -5
PAWTUCKET
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2013 23:22:57 GMT -5
With Pierzynski in Boston, where does this put Lavarnway in 2014? Like we've been saying all offseason, Pawtucket or traded.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2013 14:25:43 GMT -5
|
|
|