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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2013 17:33:50 GMT -5
He's signed for two years plus an option, all at $14M.
Here's the concept: sign Uribe to a 1-year deal as a bridge to Cecchini. Deal Middlebrooks, Ranaudo or Webster, Betts, and a fourth player, if needed, for Bautista. Jays could either spin WMB for a comparable RF prospect, or move Lawrie back to 2B for a year or two and fill RF some other way (all they currently have at 2B is Ryan Goins, who's really just a utility guy).
A batting order of:
Victorino Pedroia Ortiz Bautista (LF) Carp Bogaerts Pierzynski Uribe Bradley
would score a lot of runs, and a bench of Nava (10th player, gets significant time at 1B), Gomes, Ross, and Barmes / Pennington / Aviles would be terrific. And next year, you have Cecchini and Vazquez replacing Pierzynski and Uribe in the lineup, maintaining your R/L balance.
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 4, 2013 18:03:10 GMT -5
I'm not sure Toronto would want Middlebrooks, unless that three-homer game against them convinced them he's someone to gamble on. I was under the impression that they also canned the Lawrie at 2B idea last season and have settled on him permanently at third. Even without any second base depth, I'm not sure Middlebrooks is a guy they make that switch for. Also, Bautista's age (33) and health (210 games the last two seasons) are becoming a concern. Don't get me wrong, he'd be a force in our lineup, but probably more in line with his 2012-13 performance than 2010-11.
Rather than give up all that, I'd prefer to just take my chances with Corey Hart. He's been worth 1.2 less wins in his last two seasons (2011-12) than Bautista's (6.0 vs. 7.2 fWAR). I'm not claiming that they're that close in value today, but more that I'm just more comfortable taking a chance signing Hart on a one year deal than giving up all that for Bautistia and $28 million.
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Post by jdb on Dec 4, 2013 19:21:49 GMT -5
I'd love to get him but like Matt said its a huge health risk. They dont really need WMBs but they could use some SP. Maybe a deal around Doubront in this case. Fwiw Fangraphs had his trade value at #35 last year. I'd really like to see where this Kemp market goes and there's always a chance the Brewers want a fresh start minus Braun.
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Post by curiousle on Dec 4, 2013 19:41:52 GMT -5
The Jays look with envy at the Red Sox organization and the depth at pitching that they have. There is lots of talk here about Lind, Bautista or Encarnacion (if the package was right) being moved for major league ready prospects. The problem AA has is that the team WAS supposed to win now and he's having to retool on the fly after the Marlins trade blew up in face and the Dickey trade blew up in his face.
Don't be surprised if AA talks heavy with Arizona, they want power bats and are ready to move pieces to get a couple of monster bats, and the Jays and D'Backs have done business before.
We (Red Sox) are in an enviable position-but WE SHOULD NOT go after Bautista, the right pieces (corner outfielders or 1st baseman will come...but most likely from the trade market....I would be much happier with Ethier (isn't he friends with Pedroia?)or Kemp and wait until the summer-maybe by then the Jays will want to give up on Colby Rasmus. (But please don't trade young starting pitchers-AA did and it will cost him his job at the end of the season)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2013 20:07:58 GMT -5
Matt -- I thought that Toronto keeping WMB was a longshot. I conceived of it as a three-team trade, with Middlebrooks going to I'm Too Lazy to Figure Out Who Needs a Young 3B in return for that very comparable RF prospect, I Desperately Need Everyone to Finish Updating Their Top 10 Lists So I Don't Sound Uninformed.
Re Corey Hart: if you can teach him to play a competent 1B, then he's a platoon partner for Carp. He could play RF, with Victorino in CF, against the tougher LHP. That's just not a very useful guy. There's no way I want to pay him to take an inning of 1B PT away from Carp versus RHP.
This trade suggestion was an attempt to come up with something that might be better than re-signing Napoli, and I thought that the 2012-13 Bautista may well fit that bill. But maybe not. I certainly like it better, however, than some of the alternatives just mentioned, like Ethier or Kemp. Ideally, we're looking for a RHB that can hit cleanup (not to protect Ortiz, who would produce a line just as valuable with Rosanne Arnold hitting behind him, but because we have no RH bat who looks like a good fit there).
Hmm ... would the Giants bite for Middlebrooks plus something for Sandoval? Of course (I realize, thirty seconds after thinking that's a great idea), you may end up paying more for Uribe and Sandoval than Napoli, it may not be an upgrade, and you're selling low on WMB.
The fact that, even with all our excess farm talent, it's so hard to come up with a good trade for a RH power bat that's better than Napoli -- well, that's the best argument for re-signing him.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2013 20:48:26 GMT -5
Aramis Ramirez might be available, although there's not really been any buzz about him lately.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 4, 2013 20:49:29 GMT -5
Re Corey Hart: if you can teach him to play a competent 1B, then he's a platoon partner for Carp. He could play RF, with Victorino in CF, against the tougher LHP. That's just not a very useful guy. There's no way I want to pay him to take an inning of 1B PT away from Carp versus RHP. Is this a joke? Hart, in his last three seasons, has a 130 wRC+ (120 vs righties); he's a lot better than someone you'd platoon with Mike Carp (and I've been more willing than most to let Carp have the starting 1B job). On top of that, 1B is mainly an offensive position, Carp isn't exactly a good defender himself, and Hart was just learning how to play the position in his only real attempt at it (plus, it's a one year sample size of defensive metrics which, as we all should know, is not indicative of true talent level).
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 4, 2013 21:15:07 GMT -5
Yeah, Hart would serve us as a starter, not a platoon player. I picture him starting against every left-hander, the vast majority of right-handers, and splitting his time 80/20 between 1B and OF. Considering this team's needs, that is very valuable to us. Yes, he lights up LHPs more so than RHPs, but his career OPS vs. RHPs is only slightly lower than Napoli's this past season (.798 to .816), and he's been in the .800s in each of his last three seasons (2010-12).
Regarding his defense: He's played 187 games at 3B and 284 at 1B between the majors and minors. He may play out as a below average first baseman as his 2012 UZR/DRS numbers indicated, but it's not like he's a joke there who is completely new to the position (not saying there isn't plenty of room for improvement, though). As for the outfield, he's always been around average in right, so even accounting for his knee troubles, it's quite reasonable to expect him to be quite acceptable when filling in out there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2013 16:11:53 GMT -5
We have two projections for Hart, Steamer and Oliver, for 117 and 119 wRC+, which a .286 EqA, which is +17 runs per 150.
We have three projections for Bautista, for 144 / .315 (Steamer), 139 / .309 (Oliver), and 133 / .303 (Davenpecota). Averaging them, that's +33 runs.
Oh, and there's a 2.7 run baserunning difference between them, plus Hart's knee damage, if any.
Defensively, Hart's average, while Bautista has been about +5 the last two years, which is 2 or 3 with regression.
It's 21 or 22 runs. Getting Bautista at $14M would be like getting Hart for $3M.
Hart is a guy who, because he's 32 and coming off a season missed due to injury, projects to be less good than the seasons we just got from the two guys you want him to take playing time from. IOW, you want to sign him and gamble on a combination of him not losing any value and Carp and Nava both regressing back to their projections based on their being injured in 2012.
So, no, I wasn't joking when I said I didn't want Hart to take an inning of PT vs RHP away from the guy who had an 1112 OPS in his month as a starter for us (in three separate stretches).
So, back to the topic of trying to get the one guy who would be a better option than Napoli and might credibly be had:
Ranaudo, Webster, Barnes, or De La Rosa (their choice) Betts Marrero Non-40-man roster prospect(s) obtained for some combination of Peavy, Morales, Brentz, and Lavarnway or Butler [the Blue Jays have a full 40-man, so you can only send them one such player]
That's what we have to offer that is arguably pure surplus and would not represent any kind of downgrade for us in 2014 or the future.
So the questions become:
How good does the fourth player in this deal have to be to get it done? Could we get that player for some combination of Peavy et al? Could this deal work with Manny Margot as the 4th player? As a fifth player?
I would think that if you could get a solid MLB-ready 2B prospect for Peavy, that Ranaudo, Betts, Margot, Marrero, decent 2B kid is certainly getting in the ballpark for just two years of Bautista. It seems totally doable to me. There's three guys in that deal who have a solid chance to exceed Bautista's remaining value over the course of their six years of control.
Note that I'm trying like hell to get this done without going sideways at all. Trading Margot, who has a chance to be better than Bradley, is the sort of sideways I'm willing to go, but Owens and Swihart are off limits to me.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 16:28:05 GMT -5
Over the past three years, Jose Bautista (5.0) has averaged more fWAR than David Price (4.5), and both are under control for two more years for similar dollars. (Yeah, Bautista is older and has been on more of a decline track, but Price has similar concerns (FB velocity decline), and I'm only interested in a rough comparison here.) Do you think two back-end top 100 prospects, a likely utility infielder with some upside, and whatever the Red Sox can get for Peavy and 40-man flotsam would be enough for Price? Remember, when teams do trade elite cost-controlled players, they always demand top-tier prospects in lieu of multiple middling ones.
If I'm Alex Anthopoulos, the conversation starts with Xander or Buchholz. Maybe you eventually convince me to settle for a package centered around Doubront and Bradley or Cecchini. But that proposal gets you laughed off the phone, I think.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 5, 2013 20:07:29 GMT -5
Over the past three years, Jose Bautista (5.0) has averaged more fWAR than David Price (4.5), and both are under control for two more years for similar dollars. (Yeah, Bautista is older and has been on more of a decline track, but Price has similar concerns (FB velocity decline), and I'm only interested in a rough comparison here.) Do you think two back-end top 100 prospects, a likely utility infielder with some upside, and whatever the Red Sox can get for Peavy and 40-man flotsam would be enough for Price? Remember, when teams do trade elite cost-controlled players, they always demand top-tier prospects in lieu of multiple middling ones. If I'm Alex Anthopoulos, the conversation starts with Xander or Buchholz. Maybe you eventually convince me to settle for a package centered around Doubront and Bradley or Cecchini. But that proposal gets you laughed off the phone, I think. David Price and Bautista are apples and Oranges due to age and the 'ace' label. Any team that trades for Price is going to immediately offer him an extension to lock him up for several years (this will likely happen as a condition of the trade) while I don't think this is the same situation with Bautista, who may be a DH by the time his option year is up. I agree thought that Price is overrated and Bautista is underrated - but the value necessary to acquire them is nowhere close. That being said, Price is on the market for the right price and we do not know if the Jays are even interested in trading Bautista (they should be - but if AA completely blows up this team then he is likely out of a job before they can contend again). Based on a recent Fangraphs article suggesting the Blue Jays are after Price, it doesn't appear that they are selling. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-price-for-david-price/Bautistra/Encarnacion in LF or 1B would be awesome. But I don't think it's happening any time soon.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 6, 2013 10:46:12 GMT -5
Over the past three years, Jose Bautista (5.0) has averaged more fWAR than David Price (4.5), and both are under control for two more years for similar dollars. (Yeah, Bautista is older and has been on more of a decline track, but Price has similar concerns (FB velocity decline), and I'm only interested in a rough comparison here.) Do you think two back-end top 100 prospects, a likely utility infielder with some upside, and whatever the Red Sox can get for Peavy and 40-man flotsam would be enough for Price? Remember, when teams do trade elite cost-controlled players, they always demand top-tier prospects in lieu of multiple middling ones. If I'm Alex Anthopoulos, the conversation starts with Xander or Buchholz. Maybe you eventually convince me to settle for a package centered around Doubront and Bradley or Cecchini. But that proposal gets you laughed off the phone, I think. Over at Grantland, Jonah Keri ranked Price #30 in trade value. Bautista fell out of the top 61.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2013 10:52:19 GMT -5
Yeah, I saw that, but I think Keri's slightly underrating Bautista and overrating Price. Still, I think a deal centered around a couple of the Pawtucket pitchers isn't going to be enough for Bautista-- I can't see them deciding to blow it up without getting a blue-chip guy in return.
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