There is surely a big trade coming

I will confirm that we were the only ones who saw it coming.


I would find it difficult to believe Miller isn't in the pen next year and you can also add Villareal to that list.

I know I am going to get hammered for pointing this out but John Lackey's contract would be incredibly appealing to a mid market team with playoff aspirations.

It looks like the team is done, except for obtaining a backup SS and clearing two roster spots. But folks are correct that this FO has a history of surprising us with under-the-radar major moves.

So, what might such a trade look like? What sorts of trades might make any kind of sense?

Without considering the long-term, tax limit considerations (there are always counter-balancing moves that can be made), or whether it makes sense for the other team (if it doesn't, think 3-team trade), here are ways to make the 2014 club better.

-- Daniel Nava for a better OF, e.g. Jose Bautista. Far and away the likeliest. Alternate version: it's Mike Carp who goes, and Nava takes his place as first bat off the bench, but I think Nava has more trade value and Carp more secret (known only to us) upside, so that seems much less likely.

-- John Lackey or Jake Peavy for David Price, Max Scherzer, or the surprising equivalent. I'm not sure we want three LHP in the rotation (see below re Doubront), and of course the Rays would be reluctant to deal within the division, so I actually think Scherzer or "the surprising equivalent" is more likely (although I have no idea who the latter might be).

-- Will Middlebrooks for a superior 3B who would either be a short-term rental (e.g., Chase Headley), or a longer-term solution because Cecchini had been dealt in one of the above two trades. I've wondered whether it would be Billy Beane-like to sell high on Josh Donaldson.

-- Jackie Bradley for a better CF, a list which probably reduces to Colby Rasmus (in his walk year) and Carlos Gomez. Certainly the least likely.

Perhaps the only guy whose exclusion from this list needs justifying is Felix Doubront. I just love his upside. To put it another way, including Felix Doubront in a deal to get David Price is just as much a no-brainer as including Jon Lester to get Johan Santana was six years ago. But if you want to add his name to Lackey and Peavy as a guy we might deal to get an ace or #2, feel free.


And here's a list of folks we would include in a deal without hesitating, some of whom admittedly aren't worth much. Beyond the top 14 prospects, I've just singled out guys we might actively be looking to move because they're part of a surplus in the system at that level, or are already obviously blocked.

-- Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, or Rubby De La Rosa. The starting pitching prospect depth in AAA is great, but absolutely a luxury. Trading one guy would actually clear a logjam and allow De La Rosa or Drake Britton some developmental innings as a starter. In fact, there are scenarios where you trade two and still have plenty of young pitching depth.

-- Mookie Betts (or Sean Coyle). Are you selling high on Betts or not? If you wait a year and he puts up similar numbers, he'll be that much more valuable, an elite prospect and a potential centerpiece for any big trade. If he returns to earth big-time (a la Brandon Moss in 2005), you've lost an opportunity.

And I add Sean Coyle here, who would otherwise appear much further down on the list, because if you do trade Betts, Coyle becomes a keeper. But right now they are either set to share PT at 2B in Portland, or Coyle will need to repeat high-A unnecessarily. He'd be a nice little sweetener / last piece in a deal.

-- Jake Peavy or Franklin Morales. I regard Peavy as expendable because I think the odds of getting a matching performance from Brandon Workman et al are very good (but he is the one guy you might reasonably argue shouldn't be on here). With one year left before FA at what looks like a fair price, he'd definitely have some value to a contender with thin pitching. And anyone who trades for him will dream he has a big enough year to warrant giving him a QO. He doesn't have a lot of value (you'd never be able to get a player like that young Tigers' SS, for instance), but neither is it negligible.

Morales also is a year from FA, and could provide a lot more bang-for-buck if used as a starter. There will be smart GMs from non-contending teams looking to deal for him, with the hope of spinning him to a contender at the deadline for significantly more than they paid. And for intermediate teams -- teams that may or may not contend, and are looking for one of those everything-goes-right seasons to become surprise contenders, he'd be very attractive.

You don't have enough depth to deal them both, because you're expecting to trade Ryan Dempster as well. However, if you think Dempster is a keeper as long man and 6th starter, then both of these guys could be dealt (and I think that's a defensible option).

--Deven Marrero. Unless they're wrong about Bogaerts' ability to stay at SS, he'll never play an inning here. There are scouts who feel that his bat is better than his numbers, and his defense gives him a high floor.

-- Bryce Brentz. You don't really need three OF in AAA that are MLB-ready and on the 40-man roster, and in Alex Hassan they have a very similar and probably better player, who is underrated because he lacks a power tool, while Brentz is the opposite.

-- Ryan Lavarnway or Dan Butler. There's a good argument that you absolutely want to deal one, so that the other can get enough PT at catcher. I know I'm in the minority that wants to deal Butler and try to resurrect Lavarnway's bat (he'd DH whenever not behind the plate). The Orioles, Rangers, White Sox, and Rockies have no catcher on their 40-man roster who looks to be at AAA next year, and you always want a catcher you can send up and down at will. There are probably other such teams; I didn't check to see if guys who looked ticketed for AAA were out of options (and I did this survey before non-tenders).

-- Alex Wilson. He still looks like a solid guy for the soggy crust of an MLB bullpen, but there are so many better arms at Pawtucket that he's unlikely to be very useful.
 
Drake Britton belongs on the next list, guys you'd rather not trade but would never be a holdup to a deal, if the other team really wanted him. There's a good chance he pitches useful innings for us this year because of injuries, but his contribution doesn't project to be more than 0.5 WAR. (If you make too many of these seemingly inconsequential moves, you have screwed yourself. So they are done with caution.)

The one other guy on that list I'll mention is Manny Margot; you'd rather not deal him because of the chance that he becomes a better CF option than Bradley, but if he were the tipping point in a big deal, away he goes.

(I don't know why the OP included Andrew Miller as surplus; he's a key part of what looks like a dominant bullpen.)

I still drool at the thought of Stanton hitting at Fenway. Make him available Miami!!

Would Workman Morales and Dempster get it done for Kemp? Maybe a prospect in there

Peavy Morales and Workman

I think we're done to with major additions. If BC gets overwhelmed for Peavy or Lackey that's fine but I think we just dump Dempster. We could honestly go into spring training with all six.

Remind me again why the dodgers would want another starter?

They've got Kershaw, Grenkie, and Ryu. Just signed Haren. And then three guys (two injured, but I think healed by SP?) Beckett, Billingsley and Capuano. Peavy may be an upgrade over those guys, but I'm not sure Dempster is.
Plus adding a 5th would leave them out of the Tanaka and/or Price running....

would lackey, nava, and one of Barnes/ranaudo/Owens get it done for price? does that make too much sense?

I hadn't heard anything about the Marlins having serious interest in Cecchini.  If that's the case and they were willing to consider him a major piece of a package for Stanton I say go for it.

This does nothing to quell the trade speculation but does kind of put to rest any thoughts of a Drew resigning.

mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/heavy-offseason-lifting-likely-done-for-red-sox?ymd=20131207&content_id=64476922&vkey=news_mlb

Huh, didn't hear that, but i'm glad they turned it down. Cecchini and Swihart are hopefully/probably off-limits. I think Cecch will consistently hit .300+, with a very high OBP and around 20 hr's. I'd like to think he turns out to be as good as Stanton, so I wouldn't let him go. The sox could definitely get GS if they dangle atleast WMB, Owens, Webster or Betts. Jennings loves Brooks, and Owens was lights out.