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Red Sox acquire INF Jonathan Herrera for Morales, Martin
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 18, 2013 16:16:36 GMT -5
Speier reports that Herrera has one option left. Looks to be the case at first glance. Honestly, it's probably not an important enough move to get too excited or upset over. I also disagree with BMac regarding the Drew implications. They can just option Herrera and be right back where they started. Now, this probably puts the writing on the wall re: Drew, but if he's out there for really cheap, he could certainly come back if they want him. Took the words right out of my mouth ... generally a solid move, trading marginal assets for a more immediately useful marginal asset. I didn't think they could get much of anything for Morales, so this is good. I was intrigued by Martin and may regret his loss, but if there's one thing I'm not going to worry myself over, it's a AAA reliever in this system. And this Sox team had a hole in their depth chart which this plugs nicely. There's not much doubt in my mind that this move makes the 2014 Red Sox better, and at this level of trade, I'm willing to let that override other considerations (like my curiosity about Martin). |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 18, 2013 16:27:06 GMT -5
Regarding Martin, I understand the sentiment but don't see the likelihood of his being put on the 40 man when we already have Workman, RDLR, Wilson and Villarreal (a serious DFA candidate)on the 40 man.
Solid move, there aren't a lot of players out there that are above average defenders at all three of those infield spots.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 18, 2013 16:44:00 GMT -5
He's an average defensive SS, +0, no more, no less.
If he hits like he did last year, he's as good overall as Aviles and Pennington, the best candidates I could find.
If he hits like his projections, he's very unimpressive, about on a par with Jamey Carroll and Ramon Santiago, less good than Munenori Kawasaki, also a +0 defender but projected to be a better hitter.
Now, if you've got Franklin Morales, I don't know why you wouldn't try him as a starter, at least in ST. So one year of a potential SP for two of a utility infielder does sound like an overpay, even before you add Martin.
The final piece of the puzzle is that I didn't have him on my list of candidates because I didn't think he'd be available, because I didn't think their other in-house candidate, Josh Rutledge, was really a backup SS.
So it looks to me as if we believe his improvement at the plate last year was for real, and so we knowingly overpaid to get a guy whose team wasn't really looking to move him. In the games that Tulo misses at SS, the downgrade from Herrera to Rutledge isn't much, so it makes sense from their end, if they get enough for him.
Let's hope he keeps it up with the bat; if he does, it'll be hard to bitch too much over such a small move, even if you were hoping to get more from Morales and /or continue to follow Martin's story. If he goes back to being a zero at the plate, it'll be a misfire.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 18, 2013 16:54:24 GMT -5
vid of nice play at SS mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130429&content_id=46149392¬ebook_id=46149398&vkey=notebook_col&c_id=colwww.purplerow.com/2013/2/25/4027408/monday-rockpile-a-surprising-jonathan-herrera-fact"Jonathan Herrera has been a polarizing figure here at [Rockies fan website" "Since April 9th, 2011, Jonathan Herrera has made 116 STARTS for the Rockies, and in those 116 starts, the Rockies are a .500 team. I've checked the math on this about eight times! 58 up, and 58 down. Meanwhile in the 202 games he didn't start, the Rockies went 75-127" [...] "Do the defensive metrics underrate Herrera? Is he even better with a glove than he's given credit for and silently helping the team win more games that way than anyone realizes? Does he make others around him better? Do pitchers feel more confident with him in the infield? Is the fact that he's a decent on base percentage threat enough to minimize his complete lack of power at the plate? Or is it possible that all of this, 100% of these "team records Herrera starts the game" stats are a fluke?"Yeah, I'd say it's about 100% possible. And about 99.998% likely. Nice move consolidating some excess bullpen depth into a useful utility player. It may well be a fluke, but we can drill down deeper and identify where it might be coming from: .309 / .387 / .418 career high leverage .280 / .335 / .339 medium .241 / .296 / .299 low Again, the SS are small enough that it might be random, but this is the probable source of the team playing so well when he plays. He has other splits which indicate he may have extra value. His home / road split is relatively mild (671 vs. 645), so Coors adjustments may be knocking too much off his OPS+ and wRC+. He has a .250 / .241 / .212 challenge / neutral / pitch-around split, despite which he's hit much better 8th than 2nd, which seems backwards, until you notice that he hit mostly 2nd (where they would tend to challenge him) his first two seasons and mostly 8th his last two (where they would tend to pitch around him). So it's possible he's become a significantly better hitter in the last two seasons, but that was partially masked by the batting order switch. Given all of this, I like his chances of being one of the better-hitting backup SS around. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 18, 2013 16:54:36 GMT -5
Look at it from the standpoint that Morales couldn't get RH hitters out anymore, was always injured, made more money than he's worth and didn't really have a roster spot and it seems like Chris Martin is the guy the Rockies really wanted.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 18, 2013 17:07:09 GMT -5
Look at it from the standpoint that Morales couldn't get RH hitters out anymore, was always injured, made more money than he's worth and didn't really have a roster spot and it seems like Chris Martin is the guy the Rockies really wanted. Morales has definite value to the Rockies, just not a lot to us. Depending on health they may stretch him out in ST and might have found themselves a cheap starter in a year where they don't figure to compete. |
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 18, 2013 18:12:08 GMT -5
Morales had become a pretty bad pitcher, very inconsistent and dangerous to use in tight situations. So the Sox probably got maximum value for him. I don't view this as a particularly important deal, and I don't think it has any effect on Drew's status. If he will sign a two year deal, the Sox have one ready.
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Post by rangoon82 on Dec 18, 2013 19:16:28 GMT -5
After this trade the evidence is mounting that this is the most boring offseason ever.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 18, 2013 19:30:15 GMT -5
After this trade the evidence is mounting that this is the most boring offseason ever. Which is a testament to our 2013 roster and current farm system. This is a good thing. If we didn't have the pitching we have, Xander or JBJ, it would be a lot more "exciting". |
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 18, 2013 19:44:00 GMT -5
In the end the Red Sox needed an extra infielder that could play SS. Brock Holt is really a backup 2B, not especially good at SS or 3B. Since the 40 man roster was full, someone had to go. Morales completely regressed last year. Yes he has four good pitches, which means he could start, but he wasn't going to do that here. He's a high risk medium reward player, and the kind of guy you are looking to cut if you are a championship team with the resources to go get players like Mujica and Badenhop. Further he only had one year of control left. Even if he does build on his strong 2012, he's out the door for 2015.
Herrera is better than some of the other options like Aviles, and Barmes mainly because he's a few years younger and has an option left. So you are essentially trading Chris Martin for the excess value that Herrera provides over these players. I know there are those that like Chris Martin, but by my count the Red Sox have 16 pitchers ahead of him. Plus they have Noe Ramirez and Matthew Price behind him who were bringing up steam. It's unclear to me how he pitches for the Red Sox if they keep him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 18, 2013 19:51:33 GMT -5
Yea Martin's only real chance was to crack the 40man due to 60 day DL stints opening up a spot. Even then, lots of guys ahead of him. Options are a huge advantage for the back of the roster and Morales didn't have any.
Add: It's interesting that Colorado originally drafted Martin. Also had Morales.
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Post by dewey1972 on Dec 18, 2013 20:07:30 GMT -5
He's an average defensive SS, +0, no more, no less. If he hits like he did last year, he's as good overall as Aviles and Pennington, the best candidates I could find. If he hits like his projections, he's very unimpressive, about on a par with Jamey Carroll and Ramon Santiago, less good than Munenori Kawasaki, also a +0 defender but projected to be a better hitter. Now, if you've got Franklin Morales, I don't know why you wouldn't try him as a starter, at least in ST. So one year of a potential SP for two of a utility infielder does sound like an overpay, even before you add Martin. The final piece of the puzzle is that I didn't have him on my list of candidates because I didn't think he'd be available, because I didn't think their other in-house candidate, Josh Rutledge, was really a backup SS. So it looks to me as if we believe his improvement at the plate last year was for real, and so we knowingly overpaid to get a guy whose team wasn't really looking to move him. In the games that Tulo misses at SS, the downgrade from Herrera to Rutledge isn't much, so it makes sense from their end, if they get enough for him. Let's hope he keeps it up with the bat; if he does, it'll be hard to bitch too much over such a small move, even if you were hoping to get more from Morales and /or continue to follow Martin's story. If he goes back to being a zero at the plate, it'll be a misfire. "I don't know why you wouldn't try [Morales] as a starter." For most teams, in most situations, yes. For these Red Sox, it seems to me it would actually be a bad move to try him as a starter. The Sox have six major league starters already. If two of them go down, I can't imagine you wouldn't want to try one of the five young starters you have, all of whom have enough talent to at least be considered a top 100 prospect. As a reliever, others have already made the point about where he fell for this team. This is ignoring the fact that he's been hurt for much of the last two years and ineffective last year. Yes, he's an intriguing arm. But for this Red Sox team, he's almost beyond superfluous. On the other hand, Herrera is exactly what we need. I don't think there's any reason to suspect that he'll hit even as well as he did last year, but we're not acquiring him to play regularly, we're acquiring him to be able to play solid defense at all infield positions and give the other guys a breather from time to time. Average defensive shortstops are good. If he was tremendous, he wouldn't be a career backup. Someone else put this well: it's a trade of two marginal major leaguers. But one fills a spot that was empty, while the other was sharing a spot with a number of other players. |
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 18, 2013 20:31:16 GMT -5
Morales had turned from a possible starting pitcher into an injury prone LOOGY in the last year and a half. I think oft-injured pitchers can sometimes appear to offer a level of upside that they don't really possess, because they're not actually on the field long enough to regress. I call this the Buchholz Principle. In addition to that... he isn't that good. Lifetime 1.7 BB/SO ratio (though 2.29 with the Sox as a reliever), with a ton of HRs given up (even though he plays 1/2 his games in a ballpark that depresses HRs for opposite handed batters - mainly due to a really bad FB rate). Perfectly fine 6th or 7th reliever. But he is injured often, has no options, and has no role with the team. He was a DFA candidate at ST. Martin is likely less good than Morales, but he is a great story and I wish he could succeed in Boston. Herrera isn't good, but they needed a non-awful backup IFer with an option (in addition to it being his last option year, he earns the right to refuse assignment at some point in 2014). Ehh. OK. |
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Post by pdangle on Dec 18, 2013 20:55:09 GMT -5
Did anyone notice his H/A Career splits? RC 78 Away, 57 Home. His stroke doesn't jibe with Coors Field's and/or it's Park Effect re-adjustments. He becomes a much better player when you compare him outside of Denver. Like so...
576 PAs, 78 RC+ on the road, then another +10% v righties (his career RC+ handiness split) projects as a 85 RC+ for the Sox.
Although his swing (hit chart) isn't tailor-made for Fenway, and he'll probably hit better on the road for the Sox as well, it's good to know his stats may have been unfairly depressed by Coors Field and/or a blanket Coors Field Park Effect re-adjustment.
Throw in his defense, defensive flexibility, as well as all his platoon-mates being RHH and I really like the trade.
Edit: I guess y'all did notice the HA splits (all in the last 10 minutes, too).
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 18, 2013 21:00:56 GMT -5
No one has mentioned his speed so I will.
He has some
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 18, 2013 21:12:54 GMT -5
No one has mentioned his speed so I will. He has some Probably because he only has a total of 14 steals and 10 caught stealing in in 375 games. Pedroia has better speed than Herrera and that's why it is not brought up. I had not clue who this guy was until we traded for him, so I haven't seen it with my own eyes... but every scouting report I have seen mentions average to slightly plus speed. |
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Post by jmei on Dec 18, 2013 21:14:56 GMT -5
So you are essentially trading Chris Martin for the excess value that Herrera provides over these players. I know there are those that like Chris Martin, but by my count the Red Sox have 16 pitchers ahead of him. Plus they have Noe Ramirez and Matthew Price behind him who were bringing up steam. It's unclear to me how he pitches for the Red Sox if they keep him. That's a good point (especially about Ramirez and Price coming up behind him), but I'll note that I like Martin more than a lot of the guys who might be ahead of him. Maybe guys like Villareal or De La Rosa have higher upside, but they also have much lower floors, and a guy who can command a low/mid-90s fastball doesn't need much else to be a successful reliever. But I do love me some Chris Martin, probably more than most folks here. |
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Post by ramireja on Dec 18, 2013 21:40:42 GMT -5
I'm only upset because Towers didn't offer Archie Bradley for Morales.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 18, 2013 22:14:45 GMT -5
So you are essentially trading Chris Martin for the excess value that Herrera provides over these players. I know there are those that like Chris Martin, but by my count the Red Sox have 16 pitchers ahead of him. Plus they have Noe Ramirez and Matthew Price behind him who were bringing up steam. It's unclear to me how he pitches for the Red Sox if they keep him. That's a good point (especially about Ramirez and Price coming up behind him), but I'll note that I like Martin more than a lot of the guys who might be ahead of him. Maybe guys like Villareal or De La Rosa have higher upside, but they also have much lower floors, and a guy who can command a low/mid-90s fastball doesn't need much else to be a successful reliever. But I do love me some Chris Martin, probably more than most folks here. Michael Olmstead. |
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Post by azblue on Dec 18, 2013 22:35:11 GMT -5
Two very replaceable pitchers for a better utility guy than was on the Boson roster--step forward.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 18, 2013 22:38:25 GMT -5
Watched Morales pitch over the last two years, in person and on video. People are fooling themselves very badly if they think he can return as a starting pichter, in my opinion. That violent delivery has once again come back to haunt him. His motion is now constrained with inadequate finish. I believe the loss of control reflects that. I like the guy but I wondered when he might blow up for the Sox and it happened last year. I'd be greatly surprised if he were to get more than a half dozen starts. If the Rockies are smart, he becomes a middle-inning reliever. That's on the assumption he can be effective against righthanders. That's going to take a little more time to figure out than last year's very small sample. I just don't see him as a viable starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 18, 2013 22:44:04 GMT -5
Watched Morales pitch over the last two years, in person and on video. People are fooling themselves very badly if they think he can return as a starting pichter, in my opinion. That violent delivery has once again come back to haunt him. His motion is now constrained with inadequate finish. I believe the loss of control reflects that. I like the guy but I wondered when he might blow up for the Sox and it happened last year. I'd be greatly surprised if he were to get more than a half dozen starts. If the Rockies are smart, he becomes a middle-inning reliever. That's on the assumption he can be effective against righthanders. That's going to take a little more time to figure out than last year's very small sample. I just don't see him as a viable starter. I just don't see him being able to get righties out. He had no spot with the Sox so he was obviously wasn't going to do it with us. |
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Post by soxcentral on Dec 18, 2013 22:48:03 GMT -5
Would a good comp for Herrera be Jose Iglesias? I've never seen him play but based on everything mentioned in this thread they seem to have eerily similar skill sets.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 18, 2013 22:50:23 GMT -5
Would a good comp for Herrera be Jose Iglesias? I've never seen him play but based on everything mentioned in this thread they seem to have eerily similar skill sets. Nowhere close to the glove. |
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 18, 2013 22:51:08 GMT -5
Would a good comp for Herrera be Jose Iglesias? I've never seen him play but based on everything mentioned in this thread they seem to have eerily similar skill sets. Not really at all. I'm fairly confident that Herrera will put up a .600 OPS (Iglesias may or may not), and I'm positive that Iglesias is a significantly better defender. |
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