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Salaries, Agents, and Baseball Finances
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Post by bmitchsox on Dec 23, 2013 19:56:29 GMT -5
Sorry i kind of worded my post wrong before. I don't really have regrets about the trade, Beckett was turning into an ace and Lowell was surprisingly good, it put us over the hump. I just don't want them to trade Xander to try and get better. Imho, There isn't a single player in the league i'd want for Bogey. He's going to be a regular MVP candidate. I'd be extremely pissed if they traded him for an ace or someone to try and put us over for the short term. But in reality, I think Ben probably realizes that he's essentially our untouchable.
It is weird to look back though and wonder how many WS we would have/still could win with Hanley protecting Papi.
Also, I just now realized Boras is X's agent. That is probably the worst news ive heard all year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 24, 2013 1:43:57 GMT -5
I wouldn't worry about that much for two reasons. Bogaerts'clock has started ticking much earlier than most players. He'll still be in his prime for his first FA contract. The Sox aren't poor and if he's the player most of us think he will be, I could easily see him getting a 7 or 8 year deal. That will barely take him to his mid 30s! That's what raking in the playoffs a 20 year old means for your future. He'll be accumulating service time from here on out.
Second, the Sox have never had a problem working with Boras when the need arises. Will the kid make a mountain of money if he stays healthy? U betcha. But this is one case where the player stands a good chance of being worth every penny.
For the same reason, Trout's first FA contract will be an absolute money bomb. The notion that he'll be approaching his prime is almost meaningless. Given that he's been the best player in baseball over his age 20 and 21 seasons, it's hard to fathom what that prime will even look like.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 24, 2013 10:13:12 GMT -5
Bogaerts is great but it's a bit extreme to say there isn't a single player in baseball you'd deal him for... Mike Trout? Jose Fernandez? Harper? I get the Mike Stanton stuff. I wouldn't deal Bogaerts straight up for him but he's not even in the same category as those other guys as far as I'm concerned.
As for 6 years from now with Bogey. Of he hits the open market there is a good chance he's gone from Boston. If he's determined to get the fattest contract possible, and the team still has the same management team and philosophy (How likely is that historically speaking), then there is a good chance a team takes it to that level where it doesn't makes sense... 12 year contract etc.
That being said, Boston could resign him early. Boras clients do that if you pay a lot and the client wants to stay. It will be up to Xander, just like it was up to Jacoby.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 24, 2013 10:23:28 GMT -5
I'd trade him for Trout. That's it.
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Post by kman22 on Dec 24, 2013 10:26:45 GMT -5
We're all hoping that Xander's brother becomes his agent before year 6 right?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 24, 2013 11:29:42 GMT -5
Extend him now for 18 years/$300 million
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 24, 2013 11:40:30 GMT -5
Extend him now for 18 years/$300 million I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more Bogaerts extension talk this offseason. I'd absolutely love to Longoria him right now. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 24, 2013 12:08:37 GMT -5
Extend him now for 18 years/$300 million I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more Bogaerts extension talk this offseason. I'd absolutely love to Longoria him right now. I would too. Overpay for his pre-arb and get the cheap back years. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2013 12:41:42 GMT -5
Doubt Boras would recommend that Bogaerts sign a deal that takes him beyond his first six years. Boras knows darn well that Bogaerts could very well be a 27 year old HOF caliber free agent and that there could very well be a 12 year $400 million deal waiting for him.
Most free agents are around 30 at the time they hit free agency but with Bogaerts being at a prime age of 27, he's very ripe to be blown away by a huge offer from NY, and there would be plenty of other competition.
The Sox could try a 8 year $160 million deal now, but they wouldn't, because if he got career changing injured that would be a major risk for the Sox that they probably be worried to take.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 24, 2013 12:59:01 GMT -5
Plus 8/160 would be a gross overpay considering the first 3 years they can have him under 2m so it turns into a 5/158 for 3 arbitration years + 2 free agent years.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 24, 2013 13:07:01 GMT -5
The sox have him for 6/<35mm probably all non-guaranteed. 6/40 with two options at 15 each would be generous (by shifting all risk to the team). 8/160 would be stupid.
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Post by jmei on Dec 24, 2013 13:08:25 GMT -5
Yeah, 8/$160 would be a gross overpay. I'd start with something like 10/$150, arguing that even under that deal, Bogaerts would be a free agent at age 32 and have an opportunity to collect further bank if he's a true superstar. Something like:
$10m signing bonus, then $3m, $3m, $3m, $8m, $12m, $15m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 24, 2013 13:42:11 GMT -5
Yeah, 8/$160 would be a gross overpay. I'd start with something like 10/$150, arguing that even under that deal, Bogaerts would be a free agent at age 32 and have an opportunity to collect further bank if he's a true superstar. Something like: $10m signing bonus, then $3m, $3m, $3m, $8m, $12m, $15m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m. Even that is way too much. I think Joshv's numbers are right on, but like others have mentioned it's more likely Bogaerts just plays it out . |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 24, 2013 14:59:01 GMT -5
Yeah, 8/$160 would be a gross overpay. I'd start with something like 10/$150, arguing that even under that deal, Bogaerts would be a free agent at age 32 and have an opportunity to collect further bank if he's a true superstar. Something like: $10m signing bonus, then $3m, $3m, $3m, $8m, $12m, $15m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m. Even that is way too much. I think Joshv's numbers are right on, but like others have mentioned it's more likely Bogaerts just plays it out . How about we watch for a year and see what Xander does in his first full year in the majors, then think about how to sign him longer term? And if we were to do that, wouldn't we want to see him at SS for that year, to judge how much capability there is to his game which might affect how long he stays there? (which would have some effect on his value) If we take that much of a wait-and-see attitude before we give him a serious contract offer, it sort of steers us to an answer about resigning Drew -- don't. |
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Post by raftsox on Dec 24, 2013 15:20:05 GMT -5
Yeah, 8/$160 would be a gross overpay. I'd start with something like 10/$150, arguing that even under that deal, Bogaerts would be a free agent at age 32 and have an opportunity to collect further bank if he's a true superstar. Something like: $10m signing bonus, then $3m, $3m, $3m, $8m, $12m, $15m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m. Even that is way too much. I think Joshv's numbers are right on, but like others have mentioned it's more likely Bogaerts just plays it out . Bogaerts doesn't seem like an all money guy. He verbally agreed to an amateur contract with the Sox and stuck to it despite getting much better offers from other teams before the contact was signed. This was from an interview with the scout who signed him, Speier podcast. |
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Post by bmitchsox on Dec 24, 2013 15:56:59 GMT -5
I agree, he doesn't seem like a money guy at all, but sadly his agent is a greedy cash fiend. I think they should definitely offer him 13/185, and there's probably a fair chance he would accept, but Boras will beg him to wait and potentially see 10/350 if he reaches his ceiling.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2013 16:02:24 GMT -5
The sox have him for 6/<35mm probably all non-guaranteed. 6/40 with two options at 15 each would be generous (by shifting all risk to the team). 8/160 would be stupid. I wasn't recommending the Sox throw out those numbers. The concept is what I was trying to point out - the value of buying out his age 28 season or better his age 29 and 30 seasons but knowing that Boras would prefer to have those seasons packaged with his ages 31 thru 37 (at least) seasons as well knowing that the value of his age 27 season would be the attraction of a long-term deal for other teams, as opposed to trying to sell a team on his age 30 or 31 season numbers. Bottom line is that unless Bogaerts is very much like Pedroia there's no way the Sox will be able to buy out his prime free agent seasons - the Sox would have to front-load him pretty quickly to make them even considering an extension. And again, the Sox would assume a ton of risk if he gets hurt or if he can't hack it at SS, this value would change somewhat, too. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 24, 2013 18:11:06 GMT -5
I agree, he doesn't seem like a money guy at all, but sadly his agent is a greedy cash fiend good at his job. I think they should definitely offer him 13/185, and there's probably a fair chance he would accept, but Boras will beg him to wait and potentially see 10/350 if he reaches his ceiling. FTFY. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 24, 2013 21:09:28 GMT -5
Scott Boras is the best agent there is when you consider that even with his "fame" he still nearly always get the best deals for his clients. Dude's a rockstar, I bet most of the people that hate him only do so because he's living the dream.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 24, 2013 23:33:55 GMT -5
Scott Boras is the best agent there is when you consider that even with his "fame" he still nearly always get the best deals for his clients. Dude's a rockstar, I bet most of the people that hate him only do so because he's living the dream. There's that plus the obnoxious way he makes his clients sound like they're the second coming of Babe Ruth. It's so obvious he's full of crap. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 25, 2013 1:06:42 GMT -5
Yeah, 8/$160 would be a gross overpay. I'd start with something like 10/$150, arguing that even under that deal, Bogaerts would be a free agent at age 32 and have an opportunity to collect further bank if he's a true superstar. Something like: $10m signing bonus, then $3m, $3m, $3m, $8m, $12m, $15m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m, $21.5m. Even if those last 4 years are all team options (a la Zobrist) - I still think it is a bit too much Maybe something like this: $1.5m, $2.5m, $4m, $7m ,$12m, $15m, $18m - 2 team options at $20m Minimum value = $60m for 7 years Maximum value = $100m for 9 years Keep in mind, the best comparison for this is probably Longoria back in 2008 and this is what he got: Minimum value = $17.5m for 6 years Maximum value = 44m for 9 years Longoria signed 6 years ago and was 1 year older than Bogaerts. The fanfare is similar with Xander having a slight edge due to age, MLB experience and position. Xander would be 30 at the end of this contract proposal and Boras would love to announce a $100 million contract for a rookie. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 25, 2013 18:48:15 GMT -5
I like Xander also but virtually all of these proposals are borderline ridiculous. $100 mil for a guy with less than 100 mlb AB? A 20-21 year old? More than twice what Longoria got?
We are being extremely optimistic to throw around numbers like the above. These numbers are not based on actual probability analysis.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 25, 2013 21:09:54 GMT -5
What does your probability analysis tell you?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 25, 2013 22:03:54 GMT -5
I would start by comparing it to this one:
On December 3, 2008, Pedroia signed a six-year contract extension worth $40.5 ....
As in after he he had already won the ROY and MVP award. We extended him 6 years for $40.5 mil. And some here are talking $100 mil or more for a 20 year old with about a month of PT.
But I'm sure it's just me being stupid again.
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Post by ikonos on Dec 26, 2013 1:50:55 GMT -5
thalavarnwayguy, I am with you on this and your point is an excellent one. Boras being his agent makes it unlikely he signs a long term deal at this point but if he does, Boras may not allow Sox to buyout more than 1 or 2 FA years and that falls right inline with Pedeys 6ys contract extension. So inflation + boras + wishful thinking makes it a 50M contract for about 7-8 yrs if he signs it in the next year. Most likely he will take it year to year atleast until he is a year or two away from FA.
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