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The Anthony Ranaudo Thread: A Tale of Two Seasons
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 14, 2014 13:08:20 GMT -5
You couldn't be more off.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 14, 2014 13:14:33 GMT -5
Ranaudo has had problems staying healthy and now tiring after 7o innings potentially. His pitch mix is still largely 2 pitch. He's 24. I agree that he should stay a starter for now but put me down as a little tempted. You realize this thread is from the offseason right?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 1, 2014 8:11:08 GMT -5
Anthony's last night 9 starts he's gone 56IP 33h 7r 7er 19bb 44 k. Not that it matters with a 6-1 record. 1.13 ERA. After this kind of success in AAA, next stop MLB eh?
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 8:26:49 GMT -5
Not sure if I'd call that stretch promotion-worthy. He's got a 6.87 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9 over those nine starts, which is pretty mediocre, especially since Ranaudo is a fly ball pitcher (year-to-date GB% of 38.8%). That low ERA is driven by a low BABIP (.215) and a high percentage of runners stranded (86.2%), both of which are generally more driven by luck than skill. Even with a likely unsustainably-low home run rate over that stretch (0.33 HR/9), he's got a FIP of 3.42, which is good but not great. His SIERA (a stat that normalized home run rate) would be in the low-to-mid 4s.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 1, 2014 8:32:36 GMT -5
I still think Ranaudo is improving and worthy of some praise, but I'd have him second on the promotion list behind Webster.
If you look at their starts yesterday, Ranaudo and Littrell had nearly identical lines (and GO-FO were comparable) except more balls off Littrell found holes and caused a couple more runs.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2014 8:38:29 GMT -5
Not sure if I'd call that stretch promotion-worthy. He's got a 6.87 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9 over those nine starts, which is pretty mediocre, especially since Ranaudo is a fly ball pitcher (year-to-date GB% of 38.8%). That low ERA is driven by a low BABIP (.215) and a high percentage of runners stranded (86.2%), both of which are generally more driven by luck than skill. Even with a likely unsustainably-low home run rate over that stretch (0.33 HR/9), he's got a FIP of 3.42, which is good but not great. His SIERA (a stat that normalized home run rate) would be in the low-to-mid 4s. Last 5 looks even better, 31.2 IP 15H 3 ER 6 BB 24K Also, he gets a lot of popouts, which is definitely a skill. The walks are the biggest deal for me. He's pretty close to ready IMO. Same with Webster.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 8:54:08 GMT -5
Even across the last six, it's a 3.27 FIP and a SIERA in the high 3s (3.88 SIERA in June), which is very solid but not especially impressive. Ranaudo's popup rate is an above-average 13.1% this year, but in previous years it's hovered around the league-average 10%.
I've just always thought that, considering the rest of his profile (fly ball guy who pitches up in the zone and who has good but not great control), Ranaudo needs to miss more bats. It's nice to see his strikeout rate bounce up a little this year compared with his stint in Pawtucket last year, but his walk rate has also gotten worse along with it, and he's giving up fewer ground balls than ever. He's still the pitcher in Pawtucket I'm least optimistic about, and I'd project him as more of a back-end starter going forward.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 9:11:53 GMT -5
Those are stats for the last five not 6. 5 starts ago his walk rate took a dramatic downturn but his hits per game pretty much stayed the same.
Being honest, I'm loosing more and more faith in FIPs and SIERRAs for minor league players as I watch starter after starter limit their opponents hitting to weak contact and watch them totally dominate games then hear that stuff. I'm pretty sure you stats gurus mileage differs but that's OK.
Time will tell but I'll trust my eyes. Over the 9 games he's had an ERA of 1.125 and a WHIP of .084. Those are bottom line stats. How he got there isn't as important as the fact he got there. He's dominating the opposition while you guys are scouting the boxes.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2014 9:22:49 GMT -5
Those are stats for the last five not 6. 5 starts ago his walk rate took a dramatic downturn but his hits per game pretty much stayed the same. Being honest, I'm loosing more and more faith in FIPs and SIERRAs for minor league players as I watch starter after starter limit their opponents hitting to weak contact and watch them totally dominate games then hear that stuff. I'm pretty sure you stats gurus mileage differs but that's OK. Time will tell but I'll trust my eyes. Over the 9 games he's had an ERA of 1.125 and a WHIP of .084. Those are bottom line stats. How he got there isn't as important as the fact he got there. He's dominating the opposition while you guys are scouting the boxes. I agree with you re: weak contact. FIP doesn't account for it and it's a skill, esp. in the minors. I am 95% certain that Owens' ERA will be lower than his FIP for the rest of his time in the minors for example. I mean it's pretty easy to see if you look at lower and lower levels. When someone in high school is batting .600, it doesn't sound sustainable because of BABIP or some pitcher's BABIP is .090. But it's common. And yeah, I made a mistake about 5 starts vs. 6. He only has 6 walks in 5 games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 9:33:29 GMT -5
The best example I can think of is Doubront's last start in AAA. I'm pretty sure everybody got a statwoody with the 10 k's in 5IP. Nobody seemed to care about the most important stat, his FB velocity dropped 4MPH over those 5 IP. For the minors, I'll take the scouting over the stats and it's not close.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 9:46:32 GMT -5
Those are stats for the last five not 6. 5 starts ago his walk rate took a dramatic downturn but his hits per game pretty much stayed the same. Being honest, I'm loosing more and more faith in FIPs and SIERRAs for minor league players as I watch starter after starter limit their opponents hitting to weak contact and watch them totally dominate games then hear that stuff. I'm pretty sure you stats gurus mileage differs but that's OK. Time will tell but I'll trust my eyes. Over the 9 games he's had an ERA of 1.125 and a WHIP of .084. Those are bottom line stats. How he got there isn't as important as the fact he got there. He's dominating the opposition while you guys are scouting the boxes. That's certainly true, especially at lower levels of the minors. Here's a great quote on the subject from Astros analyst Mike Fast: However, we're not talking about a guy in A-ball here, we're talking about a guy in Pawtucket. Missing bats is one of the most important skills a pitcher can have, and strikeout rates correlate very well between the high minors and the majors. It's also an area where Ranaudo has stagnated recently, and it bodes poorly for his major league career. At this point, DIPS theory is extremely well established at the major league level. Major league hitters just don't make weak contact like minor league guys will, and if you can't get MLB hitters to swing and miss, they're going to barrel you up and hit you hard. This is especially true when you're a guy like Ranaudo who pitches up in the zone and has less than great command. You miss up in the zone at the minor league level, maybe a guy pops it up or hits a lazy fly ball. You do so to Miguel Cabrera, and the ball ends up in the parking garage on the other side of Lansdowne Street.
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Post by awall on Jul 1, 2014 10:02:51 GMT -5
If people will indulge an untrained and non-statistical observation, I saw him last summer and he struck me as pitching "small" for a big guy. I guess I just don't see him taking advantage of his height and frame at all and it didn't look like AA guys had much trouble picking up pitches from him at all. I'm not expecting more than a 5 starter and more likely a middle relief guy, from what I observed. I'd sell high if possible. Hope to be proven wrong, of course!
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2014 10:05:37 GMT -5
But when you're looking at dominant pitchers in the majors, look at someone like Mariano Rivera or Greg Maddux in his prime years. It doesn't just stop in the majors, though it gets more rare. Pitchers who go on streaks can outperform their FIP. And then really bad pitchers usually have FIPs lower than their ERAs because it also doesn't figure hard contact.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 10:09:52 GMT -5
But when you're looking at dominant pitchers in the majors, look at someone like Mariano Rivera or Greg Maddux in his prime years. It doesn't just stop in the majors, though it gets more rare. Pitchers who go on streaks can outperform their FIP. And then really bad pitchers usually have FIPs lower than their ERAs because it also doesn't figure hard contact. Yes, there are maybe a couple dozen pitchers in the history of baseball who have shown the ability to consistently and significantly outperform their peripherals. No, Anthony Ranaudo will not be joining their ranks. The overwhelming majority of streaks of pitchers outperforming their FIPs in the major leagues are just that-- lucky streaks that are not sustained.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2014 10:18:08 GMT -5
But when you're looking at dominant pitchers in the majors, look at someone like Mariano Rivera or Greg Maddux in his prime years. It doesn't just stop in the majors, though it gets more rare. Pitchers who go on streaks can outperform their FIP. And then really bad pitchers usually have FIPs lower than their ERAs because it also doesn't figure hard contact. Yes, there are maybe a couple dozen pitchers in the history of baseball who have shown the ability to consistently and significantly outperform their peripherals. No, Anthony Ranaudo will not be joining their ranks. The overwhelming majority of streaks of pitchers outperforming their FIPs in the major leagues are just that-- lucky streaks that are not sustained. Because it happens regularly for some, it can happen rarely for most. Sometimes pitchers are just pitching well and sometimes they're just lucky. Maybe both. I wouldn't count on FIP to explain away every hot streak is all I'm saying. Since I didn't watch Ranaudo's starts (I saw one), I won't assume he just got lucky. Maybe he got a lot more weak contact. But what I'm pleased about more than anything is his 6 walks in 5 games.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 10:21:27 GMT -5
Does it make a difference whether we call it "pitching well on a hot streak" or "luck?" Either way, the guy can't sustain that level of performance, and we should instead project him going forward using his broader body of work.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2014 10:29:25 GMT -5
Does it make a difference whether we call it "pitching well on a hot streak" or "luck?" Either way, the guy can't sustain that level of performance, and we should instead project him going forward using his broader body of work. I'd say it does make a (slight) difference for a prospect. It might indicate a new ceiling or more of a likelihood of reaching it. At the very minimum, development. I also think they deserve credit for it rather than just explaining everything away as luck. Think we've talked this one out.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 10:31:33 GMT -5
Yeah, that makes sense. His prime objective this year was to reduce the walks. Now he's doing that and adding a pitch to the repertoire so we should look back and see what he did 2 months ago or 2 years ago and decide that's what he's most likely to do going forward. Makes sense to me, pitchers don't actually develop, they stagnate.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 10:42:00 GMT -5
Yeah, that makes sense. His prime objective this year was to reduce the walks. Now he's doing that and adding a pitch to the repertoire so we should look back and see what he did 2 months ago or 2 years ago and decide that's what he's most likely to do going forward. Makes sense to me, pitchers don't actually develop, they stagnate. I've pretty much exclusively looked at his last nine or six or five starts (whichever streak was pointed out by other posters). My point is that even in those starts, in which he certainly has reduced the number of walks he's given up (a development for which he should be applauded), he still hasn't been the sort of dominant pitcher his ERA might suggest. He's been good, not great, and I would still have him behind De La Rosa and Webster on the starting pitcher depth chart in the short-term (and I'd also have Barnes ahead of him in the long-term).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 10:59:17 GMT -5
That's BS. He's been dominant period. I've watched several games. Why did Matt and Ian call his outing dominant, read the tweets. Do you think they don't know what they are looking at or do you think they're making the stuff up ? If the stats say anything other than he's had a dominant stretch then the stats are bogus period.
Workman has a 4.91 FIP in Pawtucket. He's sure embarrassing himself in Boston.
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Post by tonyc on Jul 1, 2014 11:09:28 GMT -5
I sense a parallel in the conversations regarding Renaudo, Owens, and previously Workman, where there have been some doubts as whether, with Workman he was a true starter, and with Renaudo and Owens if they will excell in a rotation at the highest level, and at this early stage all are somewhat exceeding expectations. Could there be an X-factor, which has been raised but not all that often with tall pitchers- that they will outperform their physical stuff (assuming they can overcome their added mechanics/command issues) by virtue that the plane of the ball coming with additional tilt will stay in a hitters zone for a shorter amount of time?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 1, 2014 11:17:22 GMT -5
I'm definitely in the camp of being skeptical of Ranaudo's long term prospects. I think he's a big league starter, but I view him as more of a 4/5. There is certainly nothing wrong with that, but I was personally hoping he would take a step forward this year to be more of a potential 2/3. Now I know he has had a lot of success this year and that has helped him, but the biggest thing it has done is give me more confidence that he can stay healthy. The success he has had, while perhaps "dominant" in and of itself, does not for me project to dominance at the big league level.
On June 19 last year Ranaudo had a 29% K-rate and an 8% K-rate. THAT is dominant. We have not seen that same ability to miss bats this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 11:33:43 GMT -5
Find me a 9 game streak last year where he allowed 1 1/8 runs and 7 1/2 runners per 9. The object is to keep the opponent from scoring.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 1, 2014 11:38:39 GMT -5
Instead of looking at his stats can we talk about his scouting report? I believe I saw he was working on a slider, could that be part of it? I believe from his scouting reports that his curveball is good, Changeup is bad, and fastball is somewhere in between.
Honestly a good comp for him right now is Bentances. Both very tall RHP with a good FB/CB combo. It would appear that Ranaudo doesn't use his height as an advantage as much. Edit: they both were very inconsistent in the minors with upside, but Bentances turned it on in a relief role. What does Ranaudo need to do to turn that corner?
I haven't really seen him pitch so I would love to hear from someone who has.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 11:39:14 GMT -5
That's BS. He's been dominant period. I've watched several games. Why did Matt and Ian call his outing dominant, read the tweets. Do you think they don't know what they are looking at or do you think they're making the stuff up ? If the stats say anything other than he's had a dominant stretch then the stats are bogus period. ...and he indeed dominated last night's start, even by defense-independent metrics (2.76 FIP last night). Indeed, if we look at just his last five starts, his peripherals have been pretty great, with a 21.1% K (6.82 K/9), 5.3% BB (1.71 BB/9), and a 2.89 FIP. But some of that success is due to a flukily-low home run rate (0.28 HR/9 over those five starts), and if we regressed that to a more league-average mark, that stretch starts to look more good than spectacular (3.89 SIERA in June; though that does include a sixth start (his 6/1 4 K, 4 BB start) where he pitched poorly). That's a far cry from his 0.85 ERA over his last five games. Maybe we're just getting caught up in semantics here (i.e., what constitutes "dominant"). My initial point was just that he's not been as good as his ERA might suggest and I think he still could use some development time in the minors. Workman has a 4.91 FIP in Pawtucket. He's sure embarrassing himself in Boston. That's almost entirely due to an elevated home run rate, which, as I've mentioned, can be flukey in small samples. Workman had a 3.63 SIERA in Pawtucket this year, which is better than what Ranaudo has put up recently. Like Ranaudo, I project Workman to be more of a back-of-the-rotation guy in the majors. Workman has put up better strikeout and walk rates in the high minors, though, so I'd put him solidly ahead of Ranaudo in my personal rankings.
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