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The Anthony Ranaudo Thread: A Tale of Two Seasons
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 11:46:07 GMT -5
Find me a 9 game streak last year where he allowed 1 1/8 runs and 7 1/2 runners per 9. The object is to keep the opponent from scoring. Last year, over a ten game stretch from 4/9 to 5/29, Ranaudo put up the following line: 28% K (9.55 K/9), 7.3% BB (2.47 BB/9), 0.49 HR/9, 42.2% GB 1.48 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.90 FIP, 2.80 SIERA That's dominance.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 11:54:16 GMT -5
I sense a parallel in the conversations regarding Renaudo, Owens, and previously Workman, where there have been some doubts as whether, with Workman he was a true starter, and with Renaudo and Owens if they will excell in a rotation at the highest level, and at this early stage all are somewhat exceeding expectations. Could there be an X-factor, which has been raised but not all that often with tall pitchers- that they will outperform their physical stuff (assuming they can overcome their added mechanics/command issues) by virtue that the plane of the ball coming with additional tilt will stay in a hitters zone for a shorter amount of time? Or could it be that some pitchers try to pitch to contact to reduce pitches per inning ? I know Henry has said that. It's the old thrower vs pitcher adage.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 12:00:30 GMT -5
Honestly a good comp for him right now is Bentances. Both very tall RHP with a good FB/CB combo. It would appear that Ranaudo doesn't use his height as an advantage as much. Edit: they both were very inconsistent in the minors with upside, but Bentances turned it on in a relief role. What does Ranaudo need to do to turn that corner? Betances has better fastball velocity and movement (see here and here, for instance) and had consistently put up elite strikeout numbers in the minors. Aside from that couple months at the beginning of 2013 (see the first page of this thread), Ranaudo has never missed that many bats with his fastball. If Ranaudo's slider doesn't stick, maybe he could get a little more velo pitching out of the bullpen and be a good two-pitch, late-innings reliever. But even a back-end starter is so much more valuable than a late-innings reliever that I'd want Anthony trying to stick as a starter for as long as possible. To reach his ceiling of a mid-rotation starter, though, Ranaudo still needs to either miss more bats or maintain this five-start-stretch of elite control.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 12:03:54 GMT -5
And I'm solidly the other way around. Workman is more hitable. It's also the rare occasion that pitchers with low on base numbers get hurt by home runs. Owens last start, 4 hits 2 walks 2HRs 4R. What are the odds that not once but twice there was a runner on when the home run was hit. (two fluky HRs btw). The fluky is the other way. If Ranaudo had given up a few more home runs in his past starts there likely wouldn't have been many more runs scored. He's dominating and he dominated in the 3 starts 6,7,8 starts ago when he gave up 4 walks three games in a row. It's tough to score if you aren't in scoring position and even tougher to score when your sitting on the bench. It's about preventing scoring not striking people out.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 12:05:16 GMT -5
Find me a 9 game streak last year where he allowed 1 1/8 runs and 7 1/2 runners per 9. The object is to keep the opponent from scoring. Last year, over a ten game stretch from 4/9 to 5/29, Ranaudo put up the following line: 28% K (9.55 K/9), 7.3% BB (2.47 BB/9), 0.49 HR/9, 42.2% GB 1.48 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.90 FIP, 2.80 SIERA That's dominance. Yeah, it's almost as good as his last 9 games.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 12:11:05 GMT -5
Last year, over a ten game stretch from 4/9 to 5/29, Ranaudo put up the following line: 28% K (9.55 K/9), 7.3% BB (2.47 BB/9), 0.49 HR/9, 42.2% GB 1.48 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.90 FIP, 2.80 SIERA That's dominance. Yeah, it's almost as good as his last 9 games. It just isn't, though. Here are those same stats in his last nine games (his GB% and SIERA are for his six June starts only, as I can't get more precise splits than that): 20.6% K (7.07 K/9), 8.9% BB (3.05 BB/9), 0.32 HR/9, 39.5% GB (June only) 1.13 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 3.89 SIERA (June only) There just aren't many pitchers who can consistently get weak contact in the majors. Peripherals like walk and strikeout numbers are just so much more predictive of a guy's future success than hits or runs allowed. It is terrific than Anthony has not allowed many runs to score during this stretch, but all the research suggests that if we're concerned about his future, those aren't the numbers we should be focusing on.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 1, 2014 12:21:40 GMT -5
There's some simple arithmetic involved here. There are pitchers with lower K rates who otherwise fare well. They're almost always groundball pitchers, guys with heavy pitches, sinkerballs, disappearing changeups, that sort of thing. Ranaudo is none of those guys. So the mediocre K rate means more balls in the air. Pitch to contact and contact you will get.
Now the very good walk rate is great, since it means fewer men on base when the contact comes. Here's the key to this conundrum: can he maintain that walk rate in a place where a lot of very hard contact gets made - jmei's concern. If he needs to cut it finer, work on the edges, does he have the chops to do that? If not, he needs put away pitches.
Those are the options, in my opinion, the things to watch for. There aren't many others for a flyball pitcher with a K rate below 7.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 12:56:00 GMT -5
Yeah, it's almost as good as his last 9 games. It just isn't, though. Here are those same stats in his last nine games (his GB% and SIERA are for his six June starts only, as I can't get more precise splits than that): 20.6% K (7.07 K/9), 8.9% BB (3.05 BB/9), 0.32 HR/9, 39.5% GB (June only) 1.13 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 3.89 SIERA (June only) There just aren't many pitchers who can consistently get weak contact in the majors. Peripherals like walk and strikeout numbers are just so much more predictive of a guy's future success than hits or runs allowed. It is terrific than Anthony has not allowed many runs to score during this stretch, but all the research suggests that if we're concerned about his future, those aren't the numbers we should be focusing on. But it is though. Bottom line stats, less Ks, more BBs but less hits and more importantly less runs and in all likelihood deeper into games as a bi-product of pitching to contact more. What's important ?? Look at the spray charts and heat maps,we're not talking about a pitcher that's getting hit hard. His OPSA for the season .597 with an IsoA of .106. The average hitter against him is a below replacement level shortstop. sprays & mapsADD: For June .472 .083. Silly numbers.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 1, 2014 13:17:16 GMT -5
Clay's career K-rate is 6.8 and bb 3.5. And, I keep reading how he only has to stay healthy.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 13:32:11 GMT -5
There's some simple arithmetic involved here. There are pitchers with lower K rates who otherwise fare well. They're almost always groundball pitchers, guys with heavy pitches, sinkerballs, disappearing changeups, that sort of thing. Ranaudo is none of those guys. So the mediocre K rate means more balls in the air. Pitch to contact and contact you will get. Now the very good walk rate is great, since it means fewer men on base when the contact comes. Here's the key to this conundrum: can he maintain that walk rate in a place where a lot of very hard contact gets made - jmei's concern. If he needs to cut it finer, work on the edges, does he have the chops to do that? If not, he needs put away pitches. Those are the options, in my opinion, the things to watch for. There aren't many others for a flyball pitcher with a K rate below 7. I think the difference in the general view versus what I'm saying lies in the term flyball pitcher. The outfielders are generally coming in to make outs, not going back to make outs. Harder contact just means easier outs for the outfielders.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 13:46:58 GMT -5
It just isn't, though. Here are those same stats in his last nine games (his GB% and SIERA are for his six June starts only, as I can't get more precise splits than that): 20.6% K (7.07 K/9), 8.9% BB (3.05 BB/9), 0.32 HR/9, 39.5% GB (June only) 1.13 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 3.89 SIERA (June only) There just aren't many pitchers who can consistently get weak contact in the majors. Peripherals like walk and strikeout numbers are just so much more predictive of a guy's future success than hits or runs allowed. It is terrific than Anthony has not allowed many runs to score during this stretch, but all the research suggests that if we're concerned about his future, those aren't the numbers we should be focusing on. But it is though. Bottom line stats, less Ks, more BBs but less hits and more importantly less runs and in all likelihood deeper into games as a bi-product of pitching to contact more. What's important ?? Look at the spray charts and heat maps,we're not talking about a pitcher that's getting hit hard. His OPSA for the season .597 with an IsoA of .106. The average hitter against him is a below replacement level shortstop. sprays & mapsADD: For June .472 .083. Silly numbers. We're just going in circles now and can agree to disagree. I recommend reading up on some of the voluminous DIPS research ( this is a great summary published by SABR) which suggests that, with some minor exceptions, the rate of hits given up on balls in play, when controlled by batted ball type (i.e., ground balls, line drives, infield fly balls, outfield fly balls), is largely a function of chance, the defense behind you, and the ballpark rather than a sustainable skill that pitchers possess. The numbers you're citing are thus much less predictive of a pitcher's future success than his walk, strikeout, batted ball, and (to a lesser extent) home run numbers. Even if Ranaudo is giving up weaker contact on fly balls, that's not something that we should expect to continue as he reaches the major leagues.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 14:11:08 GMT -5
OK, it's fine and I'll check out the article sometimes tomorrow, 3AM here. I'm not likely swayed because I'm not a believer in the basic premise of BABIP in general. I believe pitchers and hitters do effect the flight of the ball. I do though believe that if you took 1000 players, the average of whatever those players produce is probably close to what the saber guys come up with. Projections on average are close but when you start looking at the individual cases, they're typically a lot further off than the scouting.
ADD: LOL, was lying down and thought about what you just typed. Your saying Dips doesn't think there's a difference between the flyballs that can be generated off home run derby pitchers vs cy young caliber pitchers? LOL, it's aptly named and SABR really needs a time out. You have me laughing at the SABR guys now.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 1, 2014 14:38:28 GMT -5
Maybe it is reasonable that Ranaudo could consistently outperform his FIP in AAA, but the body of work on DIPS theory strongly, strongly suggests that he won't be able to do that in the majors to a significant degree. If he wants to become a middle-of-the-rotation major league starter, he either needs to start missing some more bats or get above-average control (which may very well be improving, which would help a lot).
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 1, 2014 14:44:07 GMT -5
I believe pitchers and hitters do effect the flight of the ball. I do though believe that if you took 1000 players, the average of whatever those players produce is probably close to what the saber guys come up with. Projections on average are close but when you start looking at the individual cases, they're typically a lot further off than the scouting. No - it is that there is not a spread in the talent of (starting) pitchers in the major leagues in controlling BABIP that can be reasonably detected; there is, of course, a talent in limiting hits. However, when players make it to the majors, the spread of talent for surviving players is small enough that the difference in players BABIP skill is too small to reliably see it in major league data. On the other hand, there is an obvious spread of talent regarding SO rates, for example.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 15:11:50 GMT -5
ADD: LOL, was lying down and thought about what you just typed. Your saying Dips doesn't think there's a difference between the flyballs that can be generated off home run derby pitchers vs cy young caliber pitchers? LOL, it's aptly named and SABR really needs a time out. You have me laughing at the SABR guys now. I'm saying that major-league-caliber pitchers, when facing major-league-caliber hitters, pitching in front of major-league-caliber defenses, and playing in major-league stadiums, generally have very little control over the rate at which their balls in play fall for hits. There is a voluminous amount of research on the subject, most of which strongly supports this conclusion. There are caveats and intricacies, of course, some of which suggest that there are ways that pitchers can slightly over- or under-produce their peripherals/batted-ball profile (the above link does a good job of summarizing some of the more notable examples). But there is not a lot of reason to think that Ranaudo really falls into any of those categories of potential overperformers. He does get a slightly above-average number of infield fly balls (with a small spike this year in particular; SSS warnings apply), which can help a pitcher outperform his peripherals, but the magnitude of the difference seems pretty minor. Another option is that maybe he gives up a below-average number of pulled fly balls (you can see a pattern of this in his spray chart if you filter by handedness), which go for hits and extra-base hits more often than center/opposite-field fly balls. I'd want to see more exact/precise data on fly ball trajectory, though, as fly balls are generally hit more often to the opposite field versus all pitchers, and it's unclear whether Ranaudo gives up more or less pulled fly balls than the average pitcher.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 16:14:08 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2014 17:34:29 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 19:56:38 GMT -5
And one evaluator thinks Sean Coyle is a high BABIP singles hitter with no power and no secondary skills. Should that sway my opinion from what I see in games ? We're obviously not going to convince each other and baring a complete change for Ranaudo, we'll have to see how his major league career goes.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 1, 2014 21:30:51 GMT -5
If Ranaudo has the ability to get hitters to expand the strike zone for pitches just off the plate, doesn't it seem that he may have plus command of his fastball? Perhaps this skill won't translate as well to the major leagues but since he is doing this at AAA, where most hitters have a pretty good understanding of the strike zone, isn't it possible that this skill will translate? Seems to me the debate over Ranaudo rests on two things: 1. Can his fastball command play as 'plus' in the majors? 2. Will his slider become an average or better major league pitch? For those from the Pawtucket area who have seen him pitch this year - what is the consensus?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 1, 2014 21:35:49 GMT -5
If Ranaudo has the ability to get hitters to expand the strike zone for pitches just off the plate, doesn't it seem that he may have plus command of his fastball? Perhaps this skill won't translate as well to the major leagues but since he is doing this at AAA, where most hitters have a pretty good understanding of the strike zone, isn't it possible that this skill will translate? Seems to me the debate over Ranaudo rests on two things: 1. Can his fastball command play as 'plus' in the majors? 2. Will his slider become an average or better major league pitch? For those from the Pawtucket area who have seen him pitch this year - what is the consensus? Well over the last five starts? Maybe he did. Unless you saw the games, it's hard to say.
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Post by jmei on Jul 2, 2014 7:03:30 GMT -5
And one evaluator thinks Sean Coyle is a high BABIP singles hitter with no power and no secondary skills. Should that sway my opinion from what I see in games ? We're obviously not going to convince each other and baring a complete change for Ranaudo, we'll have to see how his major league career goes. Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest that that link supports my point of view (after all, it also included a scout suggesting that he had improved his command and could was getting a lot of "mis-hits"). I just thought it was a relevant scouting report, which we never get enough of.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2014 14:37:27 GMT -5
Pitch/fx has shown that human eyes and brains are completetly incapable of judging vertical fastball movement. We can do a pretty good job evaluating armside run, but there's no one who thought Hideki Okajima's fastball had more "hop" than Jonathan Papelbon's, which it did.
If guys swing under a fastball, we tend to see vertical rise, but when guys do swing under a fastball, it's almost always because of location or deception rather than movement. Folks may recall the litany of reports that Bard's 99-100 fastball was, alas, straight as an arrow, as he got lit up in his first handful of MLB outings. Of course, within a month or so he was fanning half the batters he faced without walking anyone, with the same pitch.
Since Ranaudo has a high 3/4 slot that limits his natural armside run, this evaluator in fact has no idea how much FB movement he has. Of course, our actual inability to judge FB movement for most pitchers calls into question his entire prescription for FB success.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 2, 2014 14:53:07 GMT -5
It sounds like you are saying a fastball can move 'up'. I know that's not the case, but I'm going to spend the next few minutes mocking gravity just the same.
I've always liked Ranaudo better than Barnes because I thought his FB played better than Barnes' curve. If he can work a change in, I still like him as a starter. Right now, he's still at the point where 'healthy and good stats' is enough for the Red Sox, who don't need him as depth. If he needs to work on a pitch, I hope he gets time to. Seems like the Sox are far better at letting SPs develop, than batters (WMB, JBJ, Betts... even Bogaerts didn't have a ton of time at AA/AAA)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 3, 2014 9:00:23 GMT -5
It sounds like you are saying a fastball can move 'up'. I know that's not the case, but I'm going to spend the next few minutes mocking gravity just the same. Vertical rise relative to a spinless ball and hence relative to the gravity drop. Our brains factor out gravity automatically. If you drop an object, you don't go "oh, my God, did you see that thing go down?" However, if it fell slower than normal, you would certainly notice. Gravity was overrated, but I wouldn't go so far as to mock it. I gave it an 8.9.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 4, 2014 20:21:30 GMT -5
It appears that there is once again a difference of opinion between those that watch games vs those that analyze stats. espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/38509/ranaudo-making-a-case-to-be-called-up "The fastball was explosive out of his hand, and he was able to utilize a mix," Pawtucket manager Kevin Boles said after the outing. "He left some pitches up, but then he was able to execute. When he was behind in the count, he showed some good execution and was able to get back into the count. He threw some decent breaking balls. I thought the hand speed with the changeup was good. [He was] aggressive. He's really come a long ways." chavylope does that make Boles ignorant ?
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