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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 13:00:17 GMT -5
With the BP and BA prospect lists out recently, it made me want to make up a list of prospects in the high levels that are most likely to contribute on the Red Sox next year. I have no age limits and the rules are grey as I am considering a prospect as any player who has not established themselves as a major league player yet. I do have a couple international free agents in here (one near retirement age). I have players like Lava who have had significant at bats over multiple years. I made the list with players who I feel will contribute on next year's Red Sox team in mind and not years and years down the line. I also tried to balance in how much of a contribution they will actually make to a major league club into my rankings as well as possible service time. If we only control the player for another two years, his ranking goes down because he is not as valuable.
These are not the guys who will have the highest ceiling or highest floor... just players that appear to be the most probable contributors on the major league roster for some team in the next year even with a cup of coffee in September. The higher ranks go to players with the highest probability of contributing positive WAR if there is a tie between who will be contributing to the major league rosters with the same service time like Xander and JBJ. It is more of a unified depth chart that also ranks players in the order that they most likely be called up and how they are expected to perform.
Either way you wish to do it, just explain your list and your thinking why you value the prospects as you do. There are no set rules to this as I'm not the prospect list nazi. I'm just having fun trying to figure out who we might see next year and having a bit of fun dreaming up who might contribute next year.
I'm sure I forgot a prospect or two... ranked them in an order some won't like... so let's get some conversations going and debate. I can always edit later and like to engage in discussions.
Here is my top 20 list of players in the high minors that have the highest chance of contributing in the majors within the next season.
1. Xander
2. JBJ
3. Workman
4. Britton
5. Hinojosa
6. Wilson
7. Lavarnway
8. Barnes
9. Vazquez
10. Hassan
11. Villarreal
12. Webster
13. Cechhini
14. Butler
15. Owens
16. Brentz
17. RDLR
18. Watanabe
19. Brock Holt
20. Mookie Betts
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,982 
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Post by jimoh on Jan 6, 2014 14:38:09 GMT -5
Nice. I think Holt has much more chance of making a contribution, however modest, than do Cecchini and Owens in 2014. Also think Brentz is more likely to spend a week or two in Boston than either of them.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 6, 2014 15:30:25 GMT -5
You pretty much have to consider who is on the 40-man at this point. Hinojosa, Owens and Barnes aren't. Villareal is out of options so he pretty much has to contribute to remain in the organization. I don't see room for him without an amazing spring training and several injuries.
Butler is probably the first catcher called up. Brentz if Victorino goes on the DL. Hassan if Napoli or Gomes gets hurt. I'm still unclear about where Workman starts the season and what role he's in. Britton and RDLR are probably right after him as bullpen call-ups. Webster/Ranaudo as 8th/9th SP options. Brock Holt will be called up with any injury to WMB/Xander/Pedey or Herrera. Wright is probably up at some point for spot starts or double headers when the bullpen is taxed.
Cecchini and Ranaudo probably get called up in September.
Oh yeah, where is Ranaudo in your list?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 6, 2014 16:14:11 GMT -5
That is a unique way of putting a list together. I like it, but for me Butler and Webster are WAY TOO LOW. Webster is bound to impact the 2014 season, and do remember.....our 2 catchers are 37 years old! I'm not much of a Holt fan, but he also should be considered for several games in Boston this year (hope I'm wrong).
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 16:39:55 GMT -5
Nice. I think Holt has much more chance of making a contribution, however modest, than do Cecchini and Owens in 2014. Also think Brentz is more likely to spend a week or two in Boston than either of them. I took into account the Sox trading some good pieces for Jonathan Herrera as a sign that they were not high on Holt as a defender. I might agree with you however and I probably rated Holt too low. I had a lot of debate in my head on Brentz and was having a heck of a time trying to figure out where he would go. We really lack any quality depth for right field in the minors besides him, but I was thinking that Hassan would be the first outfielder up to the big club. As for Cecchini and Owens specifically I might want to shuffle them down a tiny bit. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 6, 2014 16:41:04 GMT -5
Nice. I think Holt has much more chance of making a contribution, however modest, than do Cecchini and Owens in 2014. Also think Brentz is more likely to spend a week or two in Boston than either of them. I took into account the Sox trading some good pieces for Jonathan Herrera as a sign that they were not high on Holt as a defender. I might agree with you however and I probably rated Holt too low. I had a lot of debate in my head on Brentz and was having a heck of a time trying to figure out where he would go. We really lack any quality depth for right field in the minors besides him, but I was thinking that Hassan would be the first outfielder up to the big club. As for Cecchini and Owens specifically I might want to shuffle them down a tiny bit. Herrera is a much better option at SS. But if there's an injury in the IF (other than 1b obviously), Holt is the first guy up. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 16:50:07 GMT -5
You pretty much have to consider who is on the 40-man at this point. Hinojosa, Owens and Barnes aren't. Villareal is out of options so he pretty much has to contribute to remain in the organization. I don't see room for him without an amazing spring training and several injuries. Butler is probably the first catcher called up. Brentz if Victorino goes on the DL. Hassan if Napoli or Gomes gets hurt. I'm still unclear about where Workman starts the season and what role he's in. Britton and RDLR are probably right after him as bullpen call-ups. Webster/Ranaudo as 8th/9th SP options. Brock Holt will be called up with any injury to WMB/Xander/Pedey or Herrera. Wright is probably up at some point for spot starts or double headers when the bullpen is taxed. Cecchini and Ranaudo probably get called up in September. Oh yeah, where is Ranaudo in your list? Very valid point about considering who is on the 40 man roster. I will have to take that into account when I adjust the list a bit more than I did when I was just thinking it up this morning. You also bring up a very good point about Villareal... he was another very tough one for me to rank. I was even debating on if he should be considered for the list as he technically isn't a prospect, but he surely hasn't earned a spot on this team yet. Since he is out of options, I will take him off the list and add in Ranaudo (see I knew I missed at least one prospect!) |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 6, 2014 16:51:29 GMT -5
What do you define as 'contribute'? Does this require any level of contribution? (So the most likely to get into a game for the Red Sox this year)
Or is this based on quantity of games played? Quality?
Perhaps designating this as 'who will create the highest positive WAR on the Red Sox this year' would be a good list which is measurable. Then we could actually go back at the end of the year and see how everyone did.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 16:54:25 GMT -5
I took into account the Sox trading some good pieces for Jonathan Herrera as a sign that they were not high on Holt as a defender. I might agree with you however and I probably rated Holt too low. I had a lot of debate in my head on Brentz and was having a heck of a time trying to figure out where he would go. We really lack any quality depth for right field in the minors besides him, but I was thinking that Hassan would be the first outfielder up to the big club. As for Cecchini and Owens specifically I might want to shuffle them down a tiny bit. Herrera is a much better option at SS. But if there's an injury in the IF (other than 1b obviously), Holt is the first guy up. I concur and I will adjust the list in a few accordingly. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 17:00:55 GMT -5
What do you define as 'contribute'? Does this require any level of contribution? (So the most likely to get into a game for the Red Sox this year) Or is this based on quantity of games played? Quality? Perhaps designating this as 'who will create the highest positive WAR on the Red Sox this year' would be a good list which is measurable. Then we could actually go back at the end of the year and see how everyone did. By contribute I am first talking about people who will give us the most service time first. I am basically trying to get a prediction of who will spend the most time on the Red Sox next season and secondly towards value if both players will give the same service time with WAR if we think both players to determine a tie breaker with who will give more value. This is what I noted in the original post: "The higher ranks go to players with the highest probability of contributing positive WAR if there is a tie between who will be contributing to the major league rosters with the same service time like Xander and JBJ." By this, I expect both Xander and JBJ to get the same service time as they will start out the year with the Red Sox. From there I was guessing who would contribute more with whatever metric matters to you. To me, WAR is a simple one to measure how much value they would bring over a replacement player. |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 6, 2014 17:05:30 GMT -5
If we're predicting who will have the most WAR of this group, I would rate them as follows:
Bradley
Bogaerts
Workman
Webster
Cecchini
Ranaudo
De La Rosa
Britton
Lavarnway/Butler (I don't think one will be with the team come the start of the year)
Holt
Brentz
Hassan
Hinojosa
Wilson
Vazquez
Barnes
(I don't think Betts or Owens get much if any run this year)
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 17:09:59 GMT -5
That is a unique way of putting a list together. I like it, but for me Butler and Webster are WAY TOO LOW. Webster is bound to impact the 2014 season, and do remember.....our 2 catchers are 37 years old! I'm not much of a Holt fan, but he also should be considered for several games in Boston this year (hope I'm wrong). With Butler it was very difficult for me to figure out where to rank him. I think the first person off the shuttle bus between Boston and Pawtucket is Lava. He put in significant time in the majors so far and has yet to stick. I think they put enough time into him and he is familiar with the pitching staff that he will be the first option. If we need a second option, my line of thinking was that we might be halfway done with the season and by that time I expect Vasquez to be ready to be called up. Webster to me is the guy who might get called up to the show and has the highest upside of any of our starting prospects. He also carries with him the most risk as he has not shown the consistency required to start games in the big leagues. Unless they convert him over to the bullpen or we trade away a starter like Dempster, I don't see him getting any more than a few starts with the Sox. If he does not perform as he did not last year and shows that he can't consistency up through the game, then they will have guys behind him to call on such as Barnes, Owens and Ranaudo. His career is riddled with very high WHIP at every step of the game and he reminds me of Franklin Morales a bit when he was a top prospect. I think he has too many things to figure out and I simply don't see it happening this year in the majors if I were a gambling man. We control him on short money so I think he figures it out next year if he isn't trade bait over time. I agree with Holt... that was almost unanimous from the posters noting that I ranked him too low and I will adjust the list now. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 17:25:16 GMT -5
Here is my top 20 list of players in the high minors that have the highest chance of contributing in the majors within the next season.
1. Xander
2. JBJ
3. Workman
4. Britton
5. Hinojosa
6. Wilson
7. Lavarnway
8. Barnes
9. Vazquez
10. Hassan
11. Villarreal
12. Webster
13. Cechhini
14. Butler
15. Owens
16. Brentz
17. RDLR
18. Watanabe
19. Brock Holt
20. Mookie Betts
[/quote]
Here is the updated list from my original with the changes suggested in the thread. I removed Villareal since he is out of options and did establish himself as an MLB player for a year with the Tigers. I also added Ranaudo to the list as I accidentally left him off. I finally factored in players on the 40 man roster higher as well as bumping up Holt considerably.
1. Xander
2. JBJ
3. Workman
4. Britton
5. Lavarnway
6. Wilson
7. Webster
8. RDLR
9. Vazquez
10. Brock Holt
11. Ranaudo
12. Hassan
13. Brentz
14. Butler
15. Barnes
16. Hinojosa
17. Cechhini
18. Owens
19. Mookie Betts
20. Watanabe
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 17:32:11 GMT -5
If we're predicting who will have the most WAR of this group, I would rate them as follows: Bradley Bogaerts Workman Webster Cecchini Ranaudo De La Rosa Britton Lavarnway/Butler (I don't think one will be with the team come the start of the year) Holt Brentz Hassan Hinojosa Wilson Vazquez Barnes (I don't think Betts or Owens get much if any run this year) The first thing to consider is who do you think will get the most playing time? Since a player can't contribute to the Red Sox unless they play, this is the most heavily weighted area for me and is why Workman is way above all the other pitchers with higher upsides. The players who will get the most playing time I am ranking higher on my list and I think Workman could be with the club from camp. The second thing to consider is how do you think they will perform with their time with WAR. You already have your WAR list up here... now just arrange the players in order of who you think will get the most playing time. Use WAR as a tie breaker when you are considering who is the better prospect if you believe they will get about the same amount of playing time. |
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