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1/1/2015 Your projected top 10 prospects
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 7, 2014 13:45:29 GMT -5
This sounds like fun. I'll give it a shot.
1) Cecchini 2) Swihart 3) Owens 4) Barnes 5) Webster 6) Vazquez 7) Betts 8) Ranaudo 9) Margot 10) Rijo
I'll save Devers for 1/1/2016.
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 7, 2014 14:18:23 GMT -5
1. Ball 2. Swihart 3. Cecchini 4. Ranaudo 5. Vazquez 6. Betts 7. Barnes 8. Stankiewicz 9. Margot 10. Owens
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 7, 2014 14:29:32 GMT -5
I feel like people are having way too many graduates. Remember JBjr, X and Webster all played decent roles this year and didn't graduate. Those 3 clearly will this season, but other then Britton, Webster and Ruby; I find anyone else a longer shot and all 3 of them may not graduate.
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Post by mainesox on Jan 7, 2014 14:34:29 GMT -5
I feel like people are having way too many graduates. Remember JBjr, X and Webster all played decent roles this year and didn't graduate. Those 3 clearly will this season, but other then Britton, Webster and Ruby; I find anyone else a longer shot and all 3 of them may not graduate. Workman is only ~8 innings from graduating, so it's all but certain that he'll also graduate. Also, Rubby has already graduated.
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 7, 2014 15:27:11 GMT -5
Flipped Barnes and Ranaudo back and fourth several times. Settled on this, for now:
1) Cecchini 2) Swihart 3) Betts 4) Owens 5) Barnes 6) Ranaudo 7) Ball 8) Vazquez 9) Marrero 10) Margot
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Post by raftsox on Jan 7, 2014 15:36:18 GMT -5
I feel like people are having way too many graduates. Remember JBjr, X and Webster all played decent roles this year and didn't graduate. Those 3 clearly will this season, but other then Britton, Webster and Ruby; I find anyone else a longer shot and all 3 of them may not graduate. I agree with you for the most part. Position player-wise, barring an injury to one of the catchers I don't see how anyone other than JBJ or Xander graduates. Pitching though is a different beast. The Sox have a number of relievers on the 40man roster who will probably start in AAA including: Britton, Workman, De La Rosa, Wilson and Villareal. All of the bullpen in Boston could be healthy all season or they could not; it's relief pitching. Starting is a different beast: I really think the Sox trade Dempster. However, without him there, you can only realistically count on 45 starts between Peavy and Buchholz. Between that and giving the others a rest you probably need 20 starts from someone else next season.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 7, 2014 18:10:44 GMT -5
Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus was the one relating the Devers story and was our guest on the podcast. He has no input on the site's rankings, obviously.
Also, some thoughts for you to consider, on your list and otherwise:- Look at what Wendell Rijo did in the GCL this year. Look at where he is in the rankings. Devers has a better pedigree, but consider what he would need to do to get even to sixth. - Look at the present Major League roster. Look at how many guys you have graduating. Consider what would need to happen in Boston in order for ALL of those guys to graduate. Vazquez, for example, is more likely not to even play in a game this year than to graduate. Same with Hassan and Brentz. For Barnes, Ranaudo, et al to ALL graduate, think about how many innings need to be opened up... - Finally, just a posting note... You don't need to respond to EVERY post in the thread. Just a thought to consider. Glad you're excited about this topic, but maybe sit back a little and let the discussion get going a bit? Slow work days happen though - been there.
I know you hate long posts and I'm sorry for the long read Chris (and everyone else)... but this is my only post I can make with my time today, so I sort of blurted it all out quickly. :-D
1. Thx for the assist on Park's name... I was getting the five podcasts I heard yesterday mixed up a bit. I thought you guys did a great job and I thank you for the effort. Even when somebody said penis unintentionally during podcast 50... it was pure spontaneous entertainment and I literally burst out laughing by myself. I appreciated that the conversation was very relaxed and colloquial. It just sounded like a few friends shooting the bleep about prospects at times and I dug that. I never thought Parks had input on this site, but he is a main man with Mellen for input on Sox prospects with BP just as Speier is now the man with Sox Prospects with BA. All three of your organizations share info with each other and it is clear that you are all friendly with each other. What I should have said is that the three most influential sites when it comes to Red Sox prospect rankings and not the three most influential people... I meant to be talking about BA, BP and here at SP. There is an amazing amount of influence that you all have on the rest of the industry and fandom as you are all trusted sources of information on players most of us almost never get to see first hand. Even if we do see them firsthand, it is typically with a buzz on and not as a scout. Really the only other person that I wait for a list from is Sickles wherever he posts.
2. I think it would take a Xander like year in 2011 above the GCL or DSL that shows power, patience and projectability. My assumption when I ranked him so high was that Devers was going to start the year above the DSL at such a young age that it would wow people. In looking back at Bogarts numbers I see that he had a full year in the DSL at 17. That certainly alters my line of thinking.
I'm not going to edit my initial list for a second time quite yet, but I'm feeling Devers at around 9-14 right now in my head. After hearing the logic, I think that is a much more fitting place for him right now. I think instead of altering the initial, I will contribute a different list based on less people graduating and Devers reranked.
The point in the podcast I was looking for when there was a man crush fest on Devers was about 44 minutes into podcast 50 by you guys on January 6, 2014. soxprospects.com/podcast/2014-0106.mp3 If I hear the podcast again when Speier said good things about Devers, I will pass on the info as to where exactly it was.
I am wondering if there was an age limit to when prospects can come to play professional baseball in America. By this I mean are child labor laws an impedance on very young prospects coming to play in the US. Is there a minimum age / date to be born by to play here like schools?
3. I was very aggressive with my projected graduating of prospects for sure. I know realistically that not all those players will graduate next season, but I felt like the players I mentioned are the guys who have a very real chance of sticking if they start off hot in the majors like Middlebrooks. It should be noted that all the prospects I did project as possible graduates were invited to the rookie development program this year, so I am likely a year early (as all invitees didn't graduate last year).
I am also trying to incorporate into my thinking how playing deep into the postseason will have as an impact on player health for next season. We have seen some pretty incredible strings of injuries on both the Sox and Patriots as fans in New England and besides a few bullpen arms and half a season of Clay, we were remarkably healthy last year. To me that isn't the norm and we were very lucky.
4. It's amazing what can happen when you work from home and the weather is terrible... it was also late when I made up this list and may or may not have had a little buzz on at the time and was bored out of my skull... especially since I was applying for other jobs at the time after work.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 7, 2014 18:43:50 GMT -5
1) Henry Owens 2) Mookie Betts 3) Blake Swihart 4) Garin Cecchini 5) Trey Ball 6) Matt Barnes 7) Allen Webster 8) Manuel Margot 9) Anthony Ranaudo 10) Rafael Devers
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 7, 2014 19:29:15 GMT -5
For my list, I am going with the nobody traded scenario. The range of possibilities, including a quantity for quality, 2 for 1 type trade or two are just too much to factor in.
Graduated: Xander, JBJ, Ranaudo, Workman, Webster.
1. Swihart. Because he's the rarest of commodities, a two way catcher. 2. Owens. Because he's a lefty. 3. Cecchini. 4. Betts. 5. Diaz. This is my going way out on a limb pick. SoxProspects profile screams bottom of the order ceiling. Jim Abbot's description screams #2 ceiling (taking age into consideration). Abbot was his pitching coach and has seen him in 3 different places. I usually defer to SP but here, I'm clearly not. If SP is right you guys have my permission for future harassment. If Abbot is right, he will continue to dominate Salem then dominate in Portland. 6. Vazquez. Getting crowded here but by then Vazquez will have major league experience and be the projected 2015 starting catcher in Boston. 7. Barnes. The drop in position rank won't be his fault, he got passed by circumstance. 8. Ball. 9. Devers. Higher if he does what Xander did, open in Greenville. (Unlikely). I've actually been high on him since the signing, mostly because of the glowing tweets by Badler at the time. I consider Badler to be the best international analyst. 10. Margot. Love his tool package.
ADD: One thing that should be noted. I believe that by the end of the year, Noe Ramirez will be considered the best relief only prospect in a long time. I just don't see any reliever cracking the top 10 of a strong deep system.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 7, 2014 20:21:57 GMT -5
I feel like people are having way too many graduates. Remember JBjr, X and Webster all played decent roles this year and didn't graduate. Those 3 clearly will this season, but other then Britton, Webster and Ruby; I find anyone else a longer shot and all 3 of them may not graduate. Workman is only ~8 innings from graduating, so it's all but certain that he'll also graduate. Also, Rubby has already graduated. That was supposed to say Workman in the first part not Webster twice, my bad.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 7, 2014 20:33:14 GMT -5
I'm working on my list, but I have a feeling Betts may be out of the top 10. I picture him struggling at his first taste of AA and taking a step back, especially in the power department. If that happens, along with his lack of a premium position, he's a regression candidate. I hope I'm wrong and the plate discipline and solid K rate make me want to buy in like everyone else, but A ball dominance from out of no where is something I can't get overly excited about.
I'm bullish on Ranaudo and the stamina theory and believe he could take a major leap forward, perhaps big enough to graduate by pitching well in MLB or even enter top 3. Undecided on that.
Starting to buy in on Swithart, but need to see AA first. Vasquez will take a big step up the ranks.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 8, 2014 7:49:54 GMT -5
The Devers stuff should probably be tempered a little bit, at least until he adjusts to the United States and being away from family. Not everyone handles it like Xander.
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Post by bmitchsox on Jan 8, 2014 19:05:05 GMT -5
1. Cecchini 2. Swihart 3. Owens 4. Barnes 5. Betts 6. Ranaudo 7. Vazquez 8. Ball 9. Margot 10. Stankiewicz
Dark Horses - Callahan, Diaz and Devers
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 9, 2014 10:03:13 GMT -5
1. Swihart 2. Barnes 3. Betts 4. Cecchini 5. Owens 6. Ball 7. Vazquez 8. Ranaudo 9. Marrero 10. Johnson
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Post by ikonos on Jan 9, 2014 14:34:50 GMT -5
Lot of folks putting Swihart at 1. I love his potential but with him being a Catcher the development path is little longer putting him in the top 3 but not necessarily at 1 as he is most likely to spend the whole year in A+/AA level. I do think Barnes will take the next step and Owens might consolidate the gains but not take that next leap. I have a hard time seeing Ball cracking the top 10 by the end of next year. He would need to dominate Greenville to be in that position and I think he is a bit raw for that just yet.
1) Cecchini 2) Swihart 3) Barnes 4) Owens 5) Vazquez 6) Ranaudo 7) Betts 8) Margot 9) Marrero 10)Johnson
Stankiewicz, Rijo, Ball, Devers looming in. I expect Xander, JBJ, Workman to contribute fulltime for Sox with Webster and Britton graduating.
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Post by okin15 on Jan 10, 2014 16:13:26 GMT -5
1 Cecchini 2 Ranaudo 3 Swihart 4 Owens 5 Betts 6 Marrero 7 Margot 8 Barnes 9 Vasquez 10 Callahan
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Post by taftreign on Jan 10, 2014 23:54:21 GMT -5
1. Henry Owens 2. Garin Cecchini 3. Blake Swihart 4. Mookie Betts 5. Matt Barnes 6. Anthony Ranaudo 7. Trey Ball 8. Christian Vazquez 9. Teddy Stankiewicz 10. Brian Johnson
If I buy Owens as the #1 mid season I'm not deviating from it come 1/1. Cecchini sticks at 2 based on consistency. Even if the power is slow to come he should produce a high rate of doubles combined with walks in the mean time with high OBPs. I like Swihart's ceiling more than Cecchini but a catcher moving to AA leads me to expect a few struggles early allowing Garin to hold ahead of him but produce enough to remain at 3 by the year end. Betts also consistently hits while providing speed and solid defense. If he produces another stat line like this past season with similar power he could pass Swihart on this ranking. Barnes at 5 above Ranaudo is a reflection of his great fastball. I expect a nice step forward this season with another solid K rate and a reduction in his walks which spiked last season. He should be able to suppress the base runners he allowed last season and regress in HRs allowed.
Ranaudo is steady. He lacks the Barnes upside though IMO but has a more complete current total repotoire. All he needs is health. I went Ball at 7 because to me a pitcher with his high end heater and a solid change should dominate at times at the lower levels posting a nice K rate spurring his projection. Christian Vazquez is at 8 as an already MLB ready defensive C. He only needs to be average for his position with the bat to warrant a top 10 rank. I went Stankiewicz at 9 because I like what he brings to the mound with his pitchability and is only 8 months older than Ball. Again he should do well early at the lower levels. I rounded it out with Brian Johnson. He is another steady safe pitcher. I believe he offers Workman type upside.
Also in a system this deep I thought it made sense to add an 11 through 15. These are obviously a bit more fuzzy for ordering purposes.
11. Manuel Margot 12. Jamie Callahan 13. Devin Marrero 14. Wendell Rijo 15. Simon Mercedes
For the record I'd have Devers at 16. I expect this to be an adjustment year and a steady rise starting during the 15 season. My sleeper for a rapid rise in 14 is Myles Smith who could be top 20 this time next year.
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Post by jchang on Jan 11, 2014 20:16:07 GMT -5
1) Owens 2) Cecchini 3) Swihart 4) Barnes 5) Ranaudo 6) Betts 7) Vazquez 8) Brentz 9) Coyle 10) Ball I'm not down on Ball, I just think it will be 2015 before we see him breakout I have Buttrey as a dark horse candidate. On Brentz and Coyle: I see people pining for a power hitter even though we all should know its OBP that produce runs, and that it takes time for power to develop.
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