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1/1/2015 Your projected top 10 prospects
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 21:06:11 GMT -5
It has been a boring day and I'm in the middle of baseball withdrawals.
I'm asking people to come up with a projected list of prospects a year from now from what we have in the system right now. You must take into account of players who you feel will not have enough service time to graduate and remain prospects. It will take some projections and guesses of prospects we don't have much data on. I am curious to see who everyone feels will be the prospects that make the jump next season into top 10 status.
2015 projected top 10 list
1. Mookie Betts - Rodney Dangerfield never got any respect and it took a year of a lot of us convincing people otherwise. I think the dark horse from last year will continue his rise. I don't think he will see enough innings if any to knock off his prospect status. Mookie Strong!
2. Blake Swihart - The number 50 podcast from this site has left me with an impression that this kid will stick at catcher and that certainly raises his prospect status over time. Sounds like a stud and his light will continue to shine.
3. Henry Owens - There are men in line at the deli ticket counter ahead of him. While I feel that some of the other starters will lose eligibility, Owens will almost certainly not. Out of all the prospects, he walks the most and needs the most refinement. If he can get his walks down and keep his strikeouts up then he will likely be our number 1 prospect... something tells me that he will continue to be wild next year though from his past experience and it will hurt his status.
4. Garin Cecchini - His defense might be the thing that holds him back and could keep him from taking over for Will Middlebrooks. If he can't hack third base and has to move to the outfield to contribute it could hurt his status. I don't see that happening next year, but unless he develops power I see him sitting pretty.
5. Trey Ball - High risk high reward type pitcher... he could either be out of the top 20 or our top pitching prospect next year... for now I will bump him up a touch as he faces his first full season.
6. Rafael Devers - I am just going on the way he was talked about during the podcasts I listened to from this site as well as another two with Speier, but it sounds like this kid has one sweet swing. I forget who was going over the top about how perfect the swing is how it is not a good swing, but a GREAT swing. Great detail was placed into this differentiation. There was also a period of joking on one of the podcasts with one of the speakers watching him spray line drives to every part of the field being beside a scout. He said the scout was going to recommend the team dump the majority of their funds into this kid when he was informed that the Sox already signed him and there was laughter. Maybe it was just the tone of how the guys were talking about him like he is the next Xander level of hitter... but it left me convinced he will shoot up the charts.
7. Manuel Margot - Lots of talk on Margot on all the podcasts. They were saying how much better he looked once his bulky knee brace was off and they liked his package of tools. I can see him easily moving into the bottom half of the top ten if his performance is anything close to what the guys on the podcasts were hoping for. His numbers don't really excite me yet, so I hope they are right. Either way, I am going to trust the guys who saw him live over the stats on this one.
8. Wendell Rijo - Same type of guy as Margot that I haven't really heard too much about. The guys on the podcasts all brought up his name as a guy who could emerge next year. They were saying how much better he looked once his bulky knee brace was off and they liked his package of tools.
9. Teddy Stankiewicz - All of the recent list makers who discussed prospects all brought up Teddy and said that he doesn't have a huge upside, but he projects to be a solid MLB pitcher in the future.
10. Jamie Callahan - It sounded like all the same stuff I was hearing about Stankiewicz was being said about Callahan as well. It sounded like he has good pitch ability and that they see a lot of good things in his starts.
Graduating: Xander, JBJ, Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, Britton, Hassan, Brentz, Vazquez
I'm graduating Ranaudo and Webster because they are already on the 40 man and will likely be the first men up. I am also graduating Barnes, because I feel that he could be ready by mid season to really contribute with the big club. The Red Sox need to know what they have in Ranaudo and Barnes as starters so they know what to do when Peavy and Dempster leave town (and possibly Lester). Hassan and Brentz will be graduating because of age... the others need no explanation.
Dark Horse Watch: Simon Mercedes, Luis Diaz, Dalier Hinojosa (if he doesn't graduate), Jon Denney, Noe Ramirez
On the rise from the depths watch: Daniel Gonzalez ... I love a pitcher who doesn't walk anyone... need to see him against tougher competition.
*** edit *** dropped Devers to 6th after some compelling arguments from the thread
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 6, 2014 21:19:08 GMT -5
Projecting Rafael Devers at # 1 is too early. He is only bat guy, who should prove he can hit both for average and for power in the higher level to be an elite prospect.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 21:31:54 GMT -5
Projecting Rafael Devers at # 1 is too early. He is only bat guy, who should prove he can hit both for average and for power in the higher level to be an elite prospect. Sure it is too early to project... and it is why I am saying this is a year out. The whole point is to guess too early on prospects. What is your guess as to the top ten list yourself? The three most influential people when it comes to Red Sox prospect rankings were literally going googoo gaagaa over his swing and I think with his extra size he put on... he could be a force. He was a man child before and it sounds like he is a beast now. All bat or not, if a guy can field third base then I'm sure he can man first base. The guys were saying to just watch some games and you will see why they speak of his hitting as they do for such a young kid. |
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Post by ramireja on Jan 6, 2014 21:42:04 GMT -5
Projecting Rafael Devers at # 1 is too early. He is only bat guy, who should prove he can hit both for average and for power in the higher level to be an elite prospect. Sure it is too early to project... and it is why I am saying this is a year out. The whole point is to guess too early on prospects. What is your guess as to the top ten list yourself? The three most influential people when it comes to Red Sox prospect rankings were literally going googoo gaagaa over his swing and I think with his extra size he put on... he could be a force. He was a man child before and it sounds like he is a beast now. All bat or not, if a guy can field third base then I'm sure he can man first base. The guys were saying to just watch some games and you will see why they speak of his hitting as they do for such a young kid. Devers certainly has the upside to be the #1 prospect someday, but in a year he will likely only have played in the GCL. I don't care how good he is in the GCL, it won't be enough to be #1, and quite honestly, perhaps not the top 10. I like this exercise though so I'll play. 1. Henry Owens 2. Mookie Betts 3. Garin Cecchini 4. Blake Swihart 5. Matt Barnes 6. Trey Ball 7. Manny Margot 8. Anthony Ranaudo 9. Christian Vasquez 10. Brian Johnson Just outside: Stankiewicz, Coyle, Devers, Callahan, Myles Smith, Rijo, & Marrero Graduating: Bogaerts, JBJ, Webster, Workman, Britton |
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Post by jimoh on Jan 6, 2014 21:43:02 GMT -5
The Red Sox' top prospect on 1/1/15 is not going to be 18.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 6, 2014 21:43:03 GMT -5
Your projection is one year after. He should play GCL, Lowell, or Greenville this year. Even though his number and scouting report at the low level were great it would be hard to say he is sure middle order bat. Most of his value is based on his bat. Then how could he be ranked at #1 in this deep system? In 2 or 3 years, he might be.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 21:51:56 GMT -5
Sure it is too early to project... and it is why I am saying this is a year out. The whole point is to guess too early on prospects. What is your guess as to the top ten list yourself? The three most influential people when it comes to Red Sox prospect rankings were literally going googoo gaagaa over his swing and I think with his extra size he put on... he could be a force. He was a man child before and it sounds like he is a beast now. All bat or not, if a guy can field third base then I'm sure he can man first base. The guys were saying to just watch some games and you will see why they speak of his hitting as they do for such a young kid. Devers certainly has the upside to be the #1 prospect someday, but in a year he will likely only have played in the GCL. I don't care how good he is in the GCL, it won't be enough to be #1, and quite honestly, perhaps not the top 10. I like this exercise though so I'll play. 1. Henry Owens 2. Mookie Betts 3. Garin Cecchini 4. Blake Swihart 5. Matt Barnes 6. Trey Ball 7. Manny Margot 8. Anthony Ranaudo 9. Christian Vasquez 10. Brian Johnson Just outside: Stankiewicz, Coyle, Devers, Callahan, Myles Smith, Rijo, & Marrero Graduating: Bogaerts, JBJ, Webster, Workman, Britton I think that is a solid list right there. I think you are also right in that Devers will not rise to the #1 spot if he plays in the gulf coast league... but is he required to do so? What if he starts out in Lowell or above? Would he be required to be in the GCL because of his young age? I was assuming that because of his advanced swing that he would start over in A ball. If I were to guess a list though... your list looks more accurate than mine. I like Owens as a top prospect as well, but if Barnes doesn't graduate then I believe that he would be higher than Owens. I am surprised to see Ranaudo on your list even though he is on the 40 man right now... you don't think he will get enough innings to graduate? Same question goes for Vasquez... I was thinking that he would get more playing time to be groomed for the 2015 job. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 21:55:46 GMT -5
Your projection is one year after. He should play GCL, Lowell, or Greenville this year. Even though his number and scouting report at the low level were great it would be hard to say he is sure middle order bat. Most of his value is based on his bat. Then how could he be ranked at #1 in this deep system? In 2 or 3 years, he might be. You are likely correct, but since the system lacks any power hitting bats behind Xander... I was thinking that this would propel him some more. He is already ranked the 21st prospect on the site... it's not like prospects haven't jumped from farther away before to shoot up the rankings. It was my riskiest pick of the bunch, but after hearing how glowingly he was spoken of... I am going to stick with my guns. I am also assuming that a ton of talent graduates this year... so he has a lot of spots right there and would be a fringe top 10 already. I was just expecting a huge year from the kid with the bat as he sounds like his hype might not just be hype. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 6, 2014 21:57:30 GMT -5
So... What happened to Vazquez?? He didn't graduate from what I can see. Was he kept back a grade and so he lost his buzz? Did he ever have any buzz? He's disappeared, again.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 21:59:18 GMT -5
The Red Sox' top prospect on 1/1/15 is not going to be 18. September 20, 2012 - top prospect Xander @ 19 years old... it's not as crazy as you think |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 21:59:59 GMT -5
So... What happened to Vazquez?? He didn't graduate from what I can see. Was he kept back a grade and so he lost his buzz? Did he ever have any buzz? He's disappeared, again. Haaa... I forgot to add him but I have him as graduating too... he gets a cap and gown. Let me do that now. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 6, 2014 22:09:15 GMT -5
The Red Sox' top prospect on 1/1/15 is not going to be 18. September 20, 2012 - top prospect Xander @ 19 years old... it's not as crazy as you think Devers will still only be 17 on September 20th. At the end of his age 17 season, Bogaerts was ranked 46th. By the end of his age 18 season, he was up to 4th. He got to #1 about halfway through his age 19 season. It's a pretty apples-to-apples comparison too, they are both October babies. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 22:16:34 GMT -5
September 20, 2012 - top prospect Xander @ 19 years old... it's not as crazy as you think Devers will still only be 17 on September 20th. At the end of his age 17 season, Bogaerts was ranked 46th. By the end of his age 18 season, he was up to 4th. He got to #1 about halfway through his age 19 season. It's a pretty apples-to-apples comparison too, they are both October babies. Well played... thanks for the assist. The people have spoken :-D Let me switch him up to a more realistic spot in that case. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 22:19:57 GMT -5
Took me a while to find the thread again... what's the transfer of the thread to the metaforum for? I thought it was for questions and comments about the site.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 6, 2014 22:28:24 GMT -5
September 20, 2012 - top prospect Xander @ 19 years old... it's not as crazy as you think Devers will still only be 17 on September 20th. At the end of his age 17 season, Bogaerts was ranked 46th. By the end of his age 18 season, he was up to 4th. He got to #1 about halfway through his age 19 season. It's a pretty apples-to-apples comparison too, they are both October babies. Comp is inaccurate. Bogaerts was an athletic player with SS/3B profile and his raw power really stood out while Devers is projected to be 1B and doesn't have either plus present raw power or projectable body. Only common thing is they have great hitting talent. Devers' bat might be more advanced for his age. |
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Post by dewey1972 on Jan 6, 2014 22:44:16 GMT -5
The Red Sox' top prospect on 1/1/15 is not going to be 18. September 20, 2012 - top prospect Xander @ 19 years old... it's not as crazy as you think I like the thread idea and I was also very excited about Devers after listening to the podcasts with Speier, but there a few reasons why I think Xander's situation and Devers's are different: - Xander plays shortstop and it sounded in those podcasts like Devers is ALL bat. I took away from those podcasts that he's got a very good chance to wind up being a first baseman;
- The system, even after all the graduations, will likely be noticeably stronger than it was in September of 2012;
- 19 is not 18: a year at that point makes a huge difference.
If Devers proves that he can play a decent third base, that makes a huge difference.
Anyway, here's my ten.
1. Garin Cecchini
2. Blake Swihart
3. Mookie Betts
4. Henry Owens
5. Anthony Ranaudo
6. Manuel Margot
7. Trey Ball
8. Rafael Devers
9. Christian Vasquez
10. Deven Marrero
Just outside: Webster, Johnson, Stankiewicz, Callahan
Graduating: Bogaerts, JBJ, Barnes, Workman, Britton
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 22:54:46 GMT -5
September 20, 2012 - top prospect Xander @ 19 years old... it's not as crazy as you think I like the thread idea and I was also very excited about Devers after listening to the podcasts with Speier, but there a few reasons why I think Xander's situation and Devers's are different: - Xander plays shortstop and it sounded in those podcasts like Devers is ALL bat. I took away from those podcasts that he's got a very good chance to wind up being a first baseman;
- The system, even after all the graduations, will likely be noticeably stronger than it was in September of 2012;
- 19 is not 18: a year at that point makes a huge difference.
If Devers proves that he can play a decent third base, that makes a huge difference.
Anyway, here's my ten.
1. Garin Cecchini
2. Blake Swihart
3. Mookie Betts
4. Henry Owens
5. Anthony Ranaudo
6. Manuel Margot
7. Trey Ball
8. Rafael Devers
9. Christian Vasquez
10. Deven Marrero
Just outside: Webster, Johnson, Stankiewicz, Devers, Callahan, Myles Smith, Rijo, & Marrero
Graduating: Bogaerts, JBJ, Barnes, Workman, Britton
I'm glad you heard the same podcast that I did and that your reaction to get excited about Devers was the same. The fact that he is in your top ten says it all to me for a kid who will be 17. I see that you project Owens down a few ticks as well. I was thinking that I would get blasted for that, but I haven't heard a peep. After I readjusted my Devers ranking we are actually fairly close. I had some different guys graduating, but if you have Barnes graduating... then we can agree that he is the closest to being ready for the majors. I see you have Webster and Ranaudo still back in the running and you believe they won't get enough innings. You won't hear me disagree too much, but I will point out that both guys are on the 40 man roster right now so they might get called up before Barnes. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 7, 2014 8:56:07 GMT -5
The three most influential people when it comes to Red Sox prospect rankings Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus was the one relating the Devers story and was our guest on the podcast. He has no input on the site's rankings, obviously. Also, some thoughts for you to consider, on your list and otherwise: - Look at what Wendell Rijo did in the GCL this year. Look at where he is in the rankings. Devers has a better pedigree, but consider what he would need to do to get even to sixth. - Look at the present Major League roster. Look at how many guys you have graduating. Consider what would need to happen in Boston in order for ALL of those guys to graduate. Vazquez, for example, is more likely not to even play in a game this year than to graduate. Same with Hassan and Brentz. For Barnes, Ranaudo, et al to ALL graduate, think about how many innings need to be opened up... - Finally, just a posting note... You don't need to respond to EVERY post in the thread. Just a thought to consider. Glad you're excited about this topic, but maybe sit back a little and let the discussion get going a bit? Slow work days happen though - been there. |
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Post by mainesox on Jan 7, 2014 11:01:59 GMT -5
I'll give it a shot I guess.
1. Barnes
2. Owens
3. Cecchini
4. Swihart
5. Betts
6. Ball
7. Ranaudo
8. Vazquez
9. Margot
10. Coyle
Graduating: Bogaerts, Bradley Jr, Workman, Webster, and Britton
Just missed: Johnson, Marrero, Stankiewicz, Denney, and Devers
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 7, 2014 11:14:37 GMT -5
I'll go with:
1. Swihart
2. Cecchini
3. Betts
4. Ranaudo
5. Owens
6. Barnes
7. Margot
8. Ball
9. Marrero
10. Devers
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 7, 2014 11:26:28 GMT -5
Devers will still only be 17 on September 20th. At the end of his age 17 season, Bogaerts was ranked 46th. By the end of his age 18 season, he was up to 4th. He got to #1 about halfway through his age 19 season. It's a pretty apples-to-apples comparison too, they are both October babies. Comp is inaccurate. Bogaerts was an athletic player with SS/3B profile and his raw power really stood out while Devers is projected to be 1B and doesn't have either plus present raw power or projectable body. Only common thing is they have great hitting talent. Devers' bat might be more advanced for his age. Why does he not have a projectable body? It looks really projectable to me. He looks a little awkward right now. He looks like he'll end up 6' 220. And that swing, jeez. |
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 7, 2014 11:30:10 GMT -5
Blake Swihart
Henry Owens
Garin Cecchini
Matt Barnes
Trey Ball
Mookie Betts
Christian Vazquez
Manuel Margot
Rafael Devers
Deven Marrero
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 7, 2014 11:34:29 GMT -5
I'll bite:
Blake Swihart
Henry Owens
Garin Cecchini
Matt Barnes
Manuel Margot
Anthony Ranaudo
Mookie Betts
Trey Ball
Christian Vasquez
Teddy Stankiewicz
The only reason I believe Ranaudo won't graduate is the great starting pitching depth. But it might be too close to tell.
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Post by raftsox on Jan 7, 2014 12:00:50 GMT -5
*Graduating: Bogaerts, Bradley, Workman, Webster, Britton, Wilson, Wright.
Barnes
Swihart
Cecchini
Owens
Ranaudo
Betts
Vazquez
Johnson
-----It starts to get hazy here, I'm cheating and going with a group of guys
Margot
Rijo
Ball
Stankiewicz
Brentz
Marrero
*Lots of innings here for the pitchers, but Workman, Britton and Wilson should get enough relief innings to graduate. I really think one of the current ML starters is traded leaving enough innings for Wright and Webster to also graduate.
There are a ton of arms that could step up and move onto the list, but it's really hard to project someone ticketed for Lowell or below to move onto the list. The only one who makes sense is Ball based on his pedigree. I have a problem even saying that Rijo and Margot make the list just because they're starting in Greenville and really need to flash some very loud tools to overpass the guys higher up the ladder**. Someone like Stank could dominate in Greenville and move quickly up to Salem which would make us all excited and probably overrate him.
Add. **For example: if Marrero OPS's 750 with his usual good defense he's easily a top 10 prospect, especially playing in AA/AAA.
Further Add. I love Mookie as much as anybody, but that power isn't real. Even he was surprised by it (Speier "down on the farm" podcast). Without the power he's a nice, but not fantastic prospect.
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Post by buffs4444 on Jan 7, 2014 12:53:56 GMT -5
-----Prospects------
1.Cecchini (1B)
2.Barnes (SP)
3.Marrero (SS)
4.Owens (SP)
5.Swihart (C)
6.Ball (SP)
7.Vazquez (C)
8.Margot (OF)
9.Callahan (SP)
10a.Devers (2B)
10b.Tzu-Wei Lin (SS)
Notes: Cecchini fills out, the power comes, and he finds his permanent home. Barnes gets a late look, but is primed for a shot in 2015. Marrero's bat develops to the point that he vaults up the rankings and is pushing for a spot in the second half of the year. I see it "clicking" for these 3 more than most, but the rest listed continue their progression for the most part. Devers/Lin step forward to tease as major prospects.
-----Graduate-------
Xander Bogaerts
JBJ
Webster
Workman
Notes: No surprises
-----Traded-----
Ranaudo
Betts
Brentz
Notes: Deals will be made in the normal course of business, these 3 seem most likely to go as part of a non-Stanton deal (i.e. not emptying both barrels for a young superstar).
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