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Full Season vs Short Season Single-A Prospects
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 25, 2014 11:24:43 GMT -5
Obviously these groups have a ton of variability left in their career paths, but for discussion's sake I put together a combo roster for Salem/Greenville vs Lowell/GCL to compare where our next wave's strengths and holes may be.
Salem/Greenville Lineup
2B - Gragnani
CF - Margot (SP#14)
LF - K Perkins
1B - Chester (SP#51)
DH - S Welch
C - Denney (SP#32)
RF - Allday
SS - Lin (SP#39)
3B - Miller
Lowell/GCL Lineup (some positions were changed based on profiles to create the best lineup)
CF - Dubon
2B - Rijo(SP#19)
3B - Devers (SP#21)
1B - Longhi (SP#40)
LF - Hudson (SP#55)
RF - Austin
DH - Acosta/Guerra
SS - Flores
C - Suarez
Salem/Greenville Rotation
Ball (SP #11)
Stankiewics (SP #15)
Callahan (SP #22)
Mercedes (SP #23)
Buttrey (SP #24)
Depth/Pen - Diaz (SP #26), Kukuk (SP #31), M Smith (SP #33), Litrell (SP #34), Gomez (SP #37), Quevedo (SP #45), Light (SP #47), Gunkel (SP #48), Aro (SP #54)
Lowell/GCL Rotation
McGrath (SP #38)
Romero (SP #56)
Almonte (SP #57)
Jiminez (SP #58)
J Williams
Depth/Pen - R Perez, Drehoff, Heras, D Gonzalez, E Garcia
A couple things jumped out to me:
- The full season projected teams have A LOT of pitching prospect depth, plenty of '3rd player in a bigger trade' surplus arms here.
- Short season teams have better position depth and a nice mix of athletic players who could break out if their bats show potential in 2014.
Clearly the players chosen, lineup placement and takeaways are up for critique.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 25, 2014 11:33:36 GMT -5
The most glaring weakness in our system right now is low-minors position players. There isn't much there beyond Margot, Devers, Denney, and Rijo.
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Post by jmei on Jan 25, 2014 11:53:20 GMT -5
Yeah, the recent draft emphasis on pitching has loaded the low minors with interesting arms, though I think Longhi and Lin are also position players with potential MLB upside. Acosta, Flores, and Suarez are also names I'm interested to watch.
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Post by saysbill on Jan 25, 2014 12:00:21 GMT -5
The most glaring weakness in our system right now is low-minors position players. There isn't much there beyond Margot, Devers, Denney, and Rijo. I agree 100%. I think this comes back to the draft. In Cherington's two drafts as GM he has drafted only two bats in the first 5 rounds: Marrero (2012, 1-24) and Denney (2013, 3-81). I can't fault him for the focus on pitching because of the depth it creates and trade assets it gives him due to the value of pitching throughout the league (as we are seeing with the FA deals). With the new rules in the draft, getting those impact bats later on is more difficult. I'm not really up on the quality of the bats coming up in this '14 draft, but with the depth of the pitching already in the system and some extra picks, I hope we will see a little love for increasing the quality of the position player depth. ADD: jmei beat me to it. |
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 25, 2014 12:01:46 GMT -5
Yeah, the recent draft emphasis on pitching has loaded the low minors with interesting arms, though I think Longhi and Lin are also position players with potential MLB upside. Acosta, Flores, and Suarez are also names I'm interested to watch. True with the draft and dearth of positional players although I think the dr may provide a couple more. Looking at the pitching has me more than encouraged and all in all I hope it continues to be emphasized, particularly high ceiling high schoolers. We are in position to incur the risk. |
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 25, 2014 12:02:41 GMT -5
I agree the positional players lack impact depth, but one guy I have an irrational enthusiasm for is Mauricio Dubon. Never seen him play but really like his profile, and players with a passion for the game sometimes find a way to work around a less than perfect skill set. Could be moved around a bit and hoping he shows progress at the plate this year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 25, 2014 12:03:07 GMT -5
It's easier to fill in position players via free agency then pitching so if one side has to be lighter, I'm glad it's there. Plus, over the next 5-7 years the hope is you have home grown position players in:
2b - Pedey/betts
C - Vasquez and/or Swithart
3b - WMB/Cecchini/X
SS - X/Marrero/betts
Cf - Bradley
That's 5 of 8 position spots that should be covered in some way in house with the potential for just from that group let alone others.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 25, 2014 12:40:53 GMT -5
We seem to be having less of an emphasis on drafting OF maybe also. Possibly the easiest guys to replace on the open market. I think the Sox are generally committed to developing from the farm, with judicious FA signings, ideally with no pick lost in the process. A key to that approach may be in finding a way to draft and develop top starting pitching. We can always get relievers and probably OF players via trade or FA signings without losing a pick. I think this makes sense considering the limitations we have with the new CBA; i.e. fewer overslot signings, less dominance in international player signings. It's a reasonable, econometrics based approach to the new reality in mlb. We need as many draft picks as we can to maximize our success. I would add that if we aregoing to do a FA signing which costs us a pick, it would be better to go a little more long term especially if it's a premium position player. Fewer picks lost and more years of control.
We have some money. It may be that we want to focus on retaining the top players we develop. We know them better and they probably would be considered less risky signs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2014 13:36:24 GMT -5
Neat idea. I'd tweak the lineups a bit though (and think you've got some guys moving who shouldn't). Also adding benches because why not. Salem/Greenville LineupCF - Margot (SP#14) RF - Allday LF - A. Tavarez 1B - Chester (SP#51) DH - S Welch C - Denney (SP#32) 2B - Gragnani 3B - Miller SS - Lin (SP#39) C - Sopilka IF - Lopez OF - Koback OF - King Lowell/GCL Lineup (some positions were changed based on profiles to create the best lineup)LF - Hudson (SP#55) 2B - Rijo(SP#19) 3B - Devers (SP#21) 1B - Longhi (SP#40) DH - Acosta CF - Austin SS - Flores/Guerra C - Suarez RF - Monge C - one of Romanski/Bethea IF - other half of SS platoon IF - Asuaje OF - Johnson Salem/Greenville RotationBall (SP #11) Stankiewicz (SP #15) Callahan (SP #22) Buttrey (SP #24) Diaz PB Starters Mercedes (SP #23) Kukuk Littrell Smith Gomez Bullpen - Quevedo (SP #45), Light (SP #47), Gunkel (SP #48), Aro (SP #54) Lowell/GCL RotationMcGrath (SP #38) Romero (SP #56) Almonte (SP #57) Jiminez (SP #58) J Williams Depth/Pen - R Perez, Drehoff, Heras, D Gonzalez, E Garcia And one thing to remember, always, is that Lowell and the GCL are in large part for the new draftees too, so this is why that squad looks thin right now. I'd assume the Lowell/GCL rotation, in particular will be bolstered by a draftee or two. |
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 25, 2014 13:36:38 GMT -5
I agree the positional players lack impact depth, but one guy I have an irrational enthusiasm for is Mauricio Dubon. Never seen him play but really like his profile, and players with a passion for the game sometimes find a way to work around a less than perfect skill set. Could be moved around a bit and hoping he shows progress at the plate this year. I actually like a couple of 2013 draftees that play the outfield. Both Austin, and especially, Hudson showed some tools last season in the GCL. Hopefully Hudson got a little stronger this offseason. He seems to have a decent hit tool. He is one to watch. I agree with the comments above about the focus on the drafting of pitching. The emphasis is a good thing, as pitching is such huge part of who wins an individual game and that the cost is down right scary on the FA market. Teams with pitching are in most games. Teams with pitching often stay in the pennant race. It is so much easier to pick up a decent bat then it is picking up a decent starter. |
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 25, 2014 13:45:00 GMT -5
Chris, thanks for the input. Was kinda hoping you guys that have more info would do exactly what you did. Good point about the lower levels really fielding incomplete rosters until the draft.
Steve, Austin is another guy I'm cautiously optimistic about as well. Sounds like he's got a solid skill set.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2014 14:17:12 GMT -5
Also, I think this year we're admittedly kind of clueless about where the Salem/Greenville/Lowell starters will be too. Kind of a logjam.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 25, 2014 15:22:09 GMT -5
I think Rijo will go to Greenville. He is advance enough for that.
Edit: After thinking about it he could go to Lowell to get a long look at SS now that he is moving around better after the knee injury.
Also I definitely expect the team to use at least 2 of its 3 first round picks - yes I know Drew is still a free agent - on offensive players, I certainly hope so.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 25, 2014 15:39:19 GMT -5
Also, I think this year we're admittedly kind of clueless about where the Salem/Greenville/Lowell starters will be too. Kind of a logjam. Yeah, the A-ball starters are exceptionally hard to project this year. The only thing I would switch from the sites projections is Mercedes to Greenville and Light to Salem. |
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Post by ramireja on Jan 25, 2014 15:45:41 GMT -5
Yeah, the recent draft emphasis on pitching has loaded the low minors with interesting arms, though I think Longhi and Lin are also position players with potential MLB upside. Acosta, Flores, and Suarez are also names I'm interested to watch. In addition to these guys, Alex Speier has piqued my interest in Javier Guerra. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2014 21:39:04 GMT -5
Also, I think this year we're admittedly kind of clueless about where the Salem/Greenville/Lowell starters will be too. Kind of a logjam. Yeah, the A-ball starters are exceptionally hard to project this year. The only thing I would switch from the sites projections is Mercedes to Greenville and Light to Salem. Trust me, there's been internal flip-flopping on a lot of those guys. The one tough thing about the SP trip to ST this year is that it'll be later in March, so we won't get a chance to see where guys are until then. |
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Post by dewey1972 on Jan 25, 2014 22:25:21 GMT -5
The most glaring weakness in our system right now is low-minors position players. There isn't much there beyond Margot, Devers, Denney, and Rijo. I agree 100%. I think this comes back to the draft. In Cherington's two drafts as GM he has drafted only two bats in the first 5 rounds: Marrero (2012, 1-24) and Denney (2013, 3-81). I can't fault him for the focus on pitching because of the depth it creates and trade assets it gives him due to the value of pitching throughout the league (as we are seeing with the FA deals). With the new rules in the draft, getting those impact bats later on is more difficult. I'm not really up on the quality of the bats coming up in this '14 draft, but with the depth of the pitching already in the system and some extra picks, I hope we will see a little love for increasing the quality of the position player depth. ADD: jmei beat me to it. I think I've read that the strength of the '14 draft at this point is in college pitching. Obviously a lot can change between now and then, though. |
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