Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects

Here's a free article analyzing the breakdown of the top 101: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22664

Twins led the way with 8, Rangers, Pirates, Royals, Cubs had 7.

I would note, though, that the four 7-prospect clubs all had three guys who were lower than Swihart. Twins only had two, including Lewis Thorpe, the 101st prospect. So if you were to cut it off at the top 73 (hey, it's just as arbitrary as 100 or 101), you'd have:

Twins 6
Red Sox 6
Astros 5
Cubs 4
Royals 4
Pirates 4
Rangers 4

My only point here is that, for those who think that Parks is down on the Sox system, he's not: the difference is really on the fringes of this list. For all we know, Sox would have 2-3 more guys in numbers 102-125 too.

Could also be that MLB.com was incredibly high on the Sox as well though. I'm looking forward to adding other data points. On the BA podcast, for example, Cooper and Eddy kind of telegraphed that Speier had Webster higher on the Sox list than he'll be ranked compared to other guys in their top 100 list.

It's also kind of crazy that being relatively "down" on a team is having six in the top 75, with an expected yield of 2.5.

Oregon... I concur about Vazquez and I also think he will have a very productive major league career and that is not reflected in many lists I see. I think his defense plays up today and that is the most important aspect of the position. If Vazquez shows that his bat holds to what he showed last year, he leapfrogs up to the next man in line IMO. By the time people take their eyes off Swihart, I think Vazquez might have a decent amount of MLB time. If one pans out then we are a very lucky team.

Well, we shall see how BP and MLB compare to other lists, then we will have a better baseline for who is "high on the Red Sox" and who is "low". That does not mean parks isn't right or MLB isn't right of course, just with more lists you get a better read on the national prospective.

In general, I think that people get too tied up in the absolute ranking of the player and if the ranking will be turn out to be correct.

Evaluating prospects is a high beta business, anyone who evaluates prospects publicly is going to be wrong and wrong a lot.  For me more important than the actual rankings is why the player is ranked the way he is.

Take Owens for instance.  More interesting than his absolute ranking is his scouting report which shows that though he has a good changeup, his fastball command and velocity are currently lacking and he thus has more of a back of the rotation profile.

Going off the links given above... here are the rankings of Sox prospects.

fantasyassembly.com/2014/01/20/top-100-prospects-for-2014/
1 Xander Bogaerts We’ve only seen a glimpse of this future top 3 SS RedSox SS
41 Garin Cecchini High AVG, High OBP, power is question. 15 HR .300/.400 valuable RedSox 3B
54 Henry Owens Tall LHP with potential 3 plus pitches. Some control issues RedSox SP
67 Mookie Betts Incredible offensive season in 2013. Size limits power. Speed not elite. RedSox 2B
89 Jackie Bradley Jr Over-matched in bigs, has mid-range power and speed. RedSox OF
97 Allen Webster May end up in pen, real control issues with plus stuff RedSox SP
99 Blake Swihart Solid hit tool, lacks power. Should provide decent avg at C RedSox C

topprospectalert.com/2014/01/23/2014-major-league-baseball-top-100-prospect-rankings/
2. Xander Bogaerts — (Red Sox)
29. Henry Owens — (Red Sox)
43. Jackie Bradley Jr — (Red Sox)
64. Allen Webster — (Red Sox)
71. Blake Swihart — (Red Sox)
84. Garin Cecchini — (Red Sox)
87. Mookie Betts — (Red Sox)

prospect361.com/2014/01/24/top-100-prospects-1-through-25/
2. Xander Bogaerts Bos SS
26. Jackie Bradley Jr. Bos OF
35. Henry Owens Bos LHP
39. Garin Cecchini Bos 3B
69. Allen Webster Bos RHP
79. Mookie Betts BOS 2B
92. Blake Swihart Bos C
99. Trey Ball Bos LHP

mlb.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=9&c=12&yr=2014&nid=287&lnid=287&rc=4&pid=88&pg=1

I noticed that they left off Xander for some reason here

P 41 Trey Ball L L 6-6/185 Lowell (A) BOS
SS 9 Mookie Betts R R 5-9/160 Greenville (A) BOS
3B 5 Garin Cecchini L R 6-2/200 Pawtucket (AAA) BOS
P 10 Henry Owens L L 6-6/205 Portland (ME) (AA) BOS Huntington Beach, CA
C 6 Blake Swihart B R 6-1/190 Salem (A) BOS
P 32 Allen Webster R R 6-3/185 Pawtucket (AAA) BOS Madison, WI

www.deepleagues.com/2014/01/16/2014-top-100-prospects-2/
2. Xander Bogaerts (SS, Red Sox)
38. Jackie Bradley, Jr. (OF, Red Sox)
45. Anthony Ranaudo (P, Red Sox)
47. Garin Cecchini (3B, Red Sox)
54. Henry Owens (P, Red Sox)
78. Matt Barnes (P, Red Sox)
82. Mookie Betts (2B, Red Sox)

thebaseballhaven.mlblogs.com/2014/01/03/2014-mlb-top-prospects-final-revision/
2. Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox; 10/1/1992
45. Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox; 4/20/1991
47. Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox; 4/19/1990
61. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox; 7/21/1992
73. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox; 4/3/1992
85. Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox; 6/17/1990
92. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Boston Red Sox; 9/9/1989
98. Trey Ball, LHP, Boston Red Sox; 6/27/1994

www.fantasysquads.com/#%211-10-2014-prospect-rankings/c16mp
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, BOS
34. Garin Cecchini, 3B, BOS
56. Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS
68. Allen Webster, BOS
95. Matt Barnes, BOS

rotoanalysis.com/2014s-top-125-prospects/
7 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS B+ Medium 6
31 Garin Cecchini 3B BOS B Medium 5
52 Jackie Bradley Jr. OF BOS B High 4
61 Henry Owens SP BOS B+ Very High 4
64 Matt Barnes SP BOS B High 4
80 Mookie Betts 2B BOS B High 4
85 Blake Swihart C BOS B High 4
94 Allen Webster SP BOS B- High 3
98 Anthony Ranaudo SP BOS B Very High 3

"Some of the prospects you'll see on other lists aren't on this one, as I've excluded any players that will be Opening Day starters in the big leagues. That means players like Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Jr., ... aren't on the list"

And I thank you for your unnecessary, unsolicited ,visious, yet unfortunately unsurprising response to my post.

Thanks man!

Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards

From a slightly different perspective looking forward, I see 4 prospects that have a realistic chance of being top 15 players next year, IF EVERYTHING WENT RIGHT. Swihart, Betts, Owens, Webster.

EDIT: ADDING MY REASONING:

Swihart is a bit complex, it's a combination of two things, first he's a two way catcher, a rare commodity. Second, it's not so much his current level of play as it is the speed at which he got there. In just two seasons he's gone from being toolsy but inordinately raw high school draftee to his current level. For a position that's as difficult as catcher, that's incredibly impressive. If he continues to blossom at the same rate, he'll be thought of in Buster Posey reference.

Betts is pretty simple. His stat line in 2013 was mind boggling good. If he puts up similar numbers in the upper minors, there will be a lot of folks on the Betts wagon.

Owens is a better BB% rate away from being there now. In his third professional year, it's not unreasonable to assume that statistic could improve dramatically.

Webster has the best pure stuff in our system. At the ripe old age of 23, it's not unheard of to see pitchers gain command in his age bracket.

Probably very true. I was just thinking along the lines of current status and tools/skills. When we did our fun top 10 for next year, I had both Webster and Ranaudo graduating. Ml teams almost always go 7 or 8 deep with starters with enough innings to burn up rookie status and I don't see the Sox as likely to keep 6 starters to begin the season. Buccholz, Lackey and Peavy in particular are unlikely to get 30 starts. Workman has already graduated.

The guys I see who could make that top 15-20 jump are:

Owens
Swithart

I can't see Betts making it as a second baseman. Cecchini probably can't because of his lack of defense and he doesn't seem to have the desire to hit for power. I don't see this as a bad thing. Boggs and Gwynn were this way. And while I'm not expecting him to be them, he could be a poor mans version and still be an all star.

Swithart can because evaluators love catchers who are athletic and if he hits at AA then it's a certainty he's going to sky rocket.

Very interested to see Owens velo this year.