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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 19, 2014 10:29:51 GMT -5
I don't really get how having a replacement for Dempster is a need. I don't see many pitchers not pitching much in the bullpen that are capable of being effective at starting without being stretched out. Maybe having him on a minor league deal... It seems that Cherington is a little OCD about depth. It's good for us, but a limit has to be reached sometime. We were all resigned to dumping Dempster for nothing before he retired. Now people are talking about replacing him. Couldn't agree more. Doesn't make sense really to add depth there when we have plenty of it in the minors. We could end up with an injury to a position player and need that money to add a guy at one of those spots at the trade deadline. Ben might just be doing his due diligence though to see if the price is right. May not be a bad deal if we can get him for cheap. |
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Post by jmei on Feb 19, 2014 11:09:31 GMT -5
Right now, the Red Sox have something like $22m of money left before reaching the luxury tax limit. Unless they intend to add multiple eight-figure players at the trade deadline, they don't need to save anywhere near that much for a potential mid-season addition (and if the team really needs it, I'd wager ownership is happy going over the luxury tax threshold for the right players). If Capuano comes cheap (say, in the $5-7m range), the team will still have plenty of room saved for the trade deadline (enough to add players making a total of $30m or so in AAV). I really don't understand this aversion to depth. The downside is someone like Hinojosa gets pushed into a bullpen/piggyback starter role to start the season in Pawtucket. The upside is you have a two-win player to back up your old and injury-prone rotation. Working off Jeff Zimmerman's research on predicting pitcher DL stints, here are the projected odds of each member of the Red Sox rotation going on the DL in 2014: Lester: 37.5% Buchholz: (not listed, but very high; probably in the 45-50% range) Lackey: 58.5% Doubront: 41.8% Peavy: 49% ...that's really, really high! Pitchers other than these guys are almost certainly going to throw a combined 200+ innings in 2014. Having a proven league-average player soaking up a good portion of those innings would be a huge boon. It's not like Workman and Webster won't get their chance in the majors as well. |
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Post by raftsox on Feb 19, 2014 11:46:55 GMT -5
Given the loss of Dempster and Wright that's the smart thing to do. Did something happen to Stephen Wright? |
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Post by okin15 on Feb 19, 2014 11:50:48 GMT -5
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Post by raftsox on Feb 19, 2014 11:52:34 GMT -5
Oh. That's not too bad. I thought he was out for the season. |
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 19, 2014 12:19:31 GMT -5
It's not so much an aversion to depth. It's more questioning the effectiveness of a spot starter that cannot possibly stay stretched out in the bullpen.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 19, 2014 12:24:18 GMT -5
Yeah, that'd be a solid move ... I think the Sox have good pitching depth, don't get me wrong. But Capuano would push it back up a notch, and trading out Dempster's $13million for Capuano's 5 or whatever would be a net plus. And he has some relief experience, as well.
The chance that Capuano throws a gem is maybe less than the young starters, but the chance that he gets shelled in 1.1IP/6RA fashion is almost surely less, too. There's value in entrusting some potential innings in that. He's not exciting, but there will be plenty of young kids to get excited about around the Sox this year ...
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Post by joshv02 on Feb 19, 2014 12:28:08 GMT -5
Capuano will likely get something like <$3mm guaranteed, with incentives to bring it up to $7 total, imho.
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Post by elguapo on Feb 19, 2014 12:43:41 GMT -5
I've wanted Capuano the last few years, and they have plenty of cash to burn. But injury replacement is a fine opportunity to break the young starters into the majors - long term thinking vs short term thinking, from my perspective. Yes, they may struggle at times - so what?
I would be interested in Capuano as a reliever, though.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 19, 2014 13:04:24 GMT -5
I also question Capuano's effectiveness in Fenway. He seems to have really horrible splits. Right handed hitters OPSed .858 against him last season. Slugged .508. And that's with half his games in spacious Dodger Stadium.
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Post by jmei on Feb 19, 2014 13:18:00 GMT -5
It's not so much an aversion to depth. It's more questioning the effectiveness of a spot starter that cannot possibly stay stretched out in the bullpen. Eh, if he's pitching multiple-inning stints out of the bullpen, I don't think it'd be a problem to ask for 5 innings as a starter and then ramp him up from there. Besides, odds are he'll probably have to fill-in early enough in the season that he won't need an extensive stretching-out period. |
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Post by jmei on Feb 19, 2014 13:40:43 GMT -5
Consolidated Capuano discussion here.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 19, 2014 16:09:06 GMT -5
Farrell has mentioned the need to have some length in the bullpen with the busy early schedule ... it's not so much a need for 6 starters since no particular starter is really capable of going big innings in any one game. So someone will need to be ready to go 2-3 inning stints or more in the bullpen and maybe make a spot start if something flares up on someone. Capuano fits into that role pretty well with his experience ... I mean, I'd be ok with Workman in that role, but I think the depth is stronger with Capuano there and Workman as the true sixth starter down in Pawtucket. I don't know that I trust any of the other guys to necessarily be ready for that yet. They may be, but it won't hurt 'em to work on their pitching for a couple more months.
Look, this team is trying to win another championship, they should be as strong as they can be with their pitching depth. If there's a roster slot that can be filled with a useful pitcher, fill it. Pack 'em in wherever you can put 'em.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 19, 2014 16:14:57 GMT -5
Right now, the Red Sox have something like $22m of money left before reaching the luxury tax limit. Unless they intend to add multiple eight-figure players at the trade deadline, they don't need to save anywhere near that much for a potential mid-season addition (and if the team really needs it, I'd wager ownership is happy going over the luxury tax threshold for the right players). If Capuano comes cheap (say, in the $5-7m range), the team will still have plenty of room saved for the trade deadline (enough to add players making a total of $30m or so in AAV). I really don't understand this aversion to depth. The downside is someone like Hinojosa gets pushed into a bullpen/piggyback starter role to start the season in Pawtucket. The upside is you have a two-win player to back up your old and injury-prone rotation. Working off Jeff Zimmerman's research on predicting pitcher DL stints, here are the projected odds of each member of the Red Sox rotation going on the DL in 2014: Lester: 37.5% Buchholz: (not listed, but very high; probably in the 45-50% range) Lackey: 58.5% Doubront: 41.8% Peavy: 49% ...that's really, really high! Pitchers other than these guys are almost certainly going to throw a combined 200+ innings in 2014. Having a proven league-average player soaking up a good portion of those innings would be a huge boon. It's not like Workman and Webster won't get their chance in the majors as well. Wow thats some really cool info. Thanks. |
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Post by bigpupp on Feb 19, 2014 16:50:45 GMT -5
Sorry if this has been answered, but why is Lester's AAV so far below his 2014 salary? I thought club options were usually calculated at cost (minus buyouts). I think he is getting this number from an article that Speir put out earlier this winter that had that number listed. I'm with you, though, in thinking it's wrong |
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Post by jmei on Feb 19, 2014 16:58:45 GMT -5
I also question Capuano's effectiveness in Fenway. He seems to have really horrible splits. Right handed hitters OPSed .858 against him last season. Slugged .508. And that's with half his games in spacious Dodger Stadium. Capuano definitely has some pretty big splits, which is less than ideal for a starter. On the other hand, a lot of his struggles versus lefties last year were BABIP-based. He still have a pretty great 3.05 K/BB versus righties in 2013 and didn't give up that many home runs (12.2% HR/FB, which is not that much more than average). His 4.09 FIP and 3.83 xFIP versus righties in 2013 are both roughly league-average, which is pretty great considering that he kills lefties (2.04 FIP (no HR allowed), 3.22 xFIP). He's also been roughly a league-average pitcher over the past three years despite facing a ton of righties over that span. |
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 19, 2014 17:27:45 GMT -5
I also question Capuano's effectiveness in Fenway. He seems to have really horrible splits. Right handed hitters OPSed .858 against him last season. Slugged .508. And that's with half his games in spacious Dodger Stadium. Capuano definitely has some pretty big splits, which is less than ideal for a starter. On the other hand, a lot of his struggles versus lefties last year were BABIP-based. He still have a pretty great 3.05 K/BB versus righties in 2013 and didn't give up that many home runs (12.2% HR/FB, which is not that much more than average). His 4.09 FIP and 3.83 xFIP versus righties in 2013 are both roughly league-average, which is pretty great considering that he kills lefties (2.04 FIP (no HR allowed), 3.22 xFIP). He's also been roughly a league-average pitcher over the past three years despite facing a ton of righties over that span. Yeah, I can't quite figure out how he's doing it. But still, I think he'd get killed in Fenway if he can't keep slugging % down vs RH in Dodger Stadium. It's still there though not as extreme for the last 3 seasons. |
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 20, 2014 11:50:19 GMT -5
Yeah, Capuano will probably give up home runs in Fenway. But the goal isn't to find a flawless player, just one who will improve the team. Capuano adds depth, experience, and would come at a relatively low cost. He seems to have offset a declining K rate with improved control. He'd be roughly one-third the cost of Dempster and would roughly replicate his expected value.
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Post by joshv02 on Feb 20, 2014 12:52:12 GMT -5
He wouldn't replicate Dempster's expected value (i.e., WAR total?) as he wouldn't be expected to pitch 180+ innings - but his rate stats may be as good if he is utilized properly, and he isn't a bad guy to have around, especially for their expected role on the 2014 Red Sox team. Dempster is certainly better - and probably by enough to justify the difference in salary.
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Post by godot on Feb 20, 2014 13:13:42 GMT -5
A lot of chatter that they will announce late today or tomorrow. If not Capuano, they are saying they are close to bringing another pitcher to camp. Capuano seems like a good signing
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Post by okin15 on Feb 20, 2014 13:18:05 GMT -5
Demps wasn't going to pitch 180+ either. Each was penciled in as bullpen long-man/swing starter with injury concerns.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 13:43:08 GMT -5
They seem committed to keeping Workman in AAA. I'm all for depth, but he'd provide more value than Capuano.
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Post by okin15 on Feb 20, 2014 13:53:40 GMT -5
I don't disagree, but I also think Workman could benefit from the regular work (on this third pitch especially) and that the minimal innings/leverage he'd be throwing in a long-man role in Boston would limit his value on the 25-man anyway.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 13:57:11 GMT -5
I don't disagree, but I also think Workman could benefit from the regular work (on this third pitch especially) and that the minimal innings/leverage he'd be throwing in a long-man role in Boston would limit his value on the 25-man anyway. I think Workman would end up challenging Tazawa, not taking the mopup role. That's pretty much where he ended up last season. |
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2014 14:15:57 GMT -5
I don't disagree, but I also think Workman could benefit from the regular work (on this third pitch especially) and that the minimal innings/leverage he'd be throwing in a long-man role in Boston would limit his value on the 25-man anyway. I think Workman would end up challenging Tazawa, not taking the mopup role. That's pretty much where he ended up last season. If you're moving Workman to 7th/8th inning, one-inning stints, you're making it very difficult for him to ever transition back to starting. Remember, even a below-average, back-of-the-rotation starter is generally both more valuable to clubs and gets paid more in free agency than a good but not great reliever. Besides, with the addition of Mujica and the return to health of Miller, the Red Sox don't exactly need another high-leverage reliever. |
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