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Post by redsoxmarc on Feb 17, 2014 0:59:10 GMT -5
I really hope Brandon Workman is in the Red Sox bullpen to begin the year (assuming the rest of the Boston starting rotation stays healthy this spring) or he's the 5th starter (unless Webster has another great spring) if an injury arises to a Sox starter this spring. He's proved he can pitch too many valuable innings to have them wasted in Pawtucket. I'll always think of Ryan Kalish getting injured and his MLB talent being wasted and MLB career jeopardized in Pawtucket for friggin Carl Crawford. If there is an injury where a Sox starter has to miss a game or two I'd prefer to see Webster over Workman on the Pawtucket to Boston shuttle. If the injury to the Sox starter is long term then I'd like to see Workman sent down to Pawtucket to get stretched out and return to Boston when he's ready to start. I know that's not ideal but I'd look at Workman as starting the rest of the year (or at least until deep in the season) in this scenario and not changing his role back and forth.
I also hope Drake Britton is strictly in the bullpen (Pawtucket unless there is an injury) once the regular season begins and they allow De La Rosa one last opportunity to show his starting potential. De La Rosa seems to have infinitely more raw ability than Britton. The injury to Wright seems to be a blessing for De La Rosa and his chance to prove he is a starter.
The Pawtucket rotation is Webster, De La Rosa, Hinojosa, Ranaudo and Barnes. Workman belongs in Boston, Britton belongs in a bullpen role and Wright will never be anything more than a spot starter in desperate situations and shouldn't be taking innings away from the players with much more potential. Hinojosa is the huge wildcard because who knows what to expect from him but I hardly doubt he will be what Workman has shown. Ranaudo, Barnes and Owens seem to be second half of the season depth if they are ready at all this year.
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Post by jmei on Feb 17, 2014 1:04:47 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 17, 2014 10:21:57 GMT -5
Wouldn't starting Workman in the bullpen only to shift him down to AAA to get stretched out for the rest of the season be changing his roles? If they want Workman as the true sixth starter then it probably bakes sense to have him in AAA to start the season.
I suppose it all depends on his bullpen role though. If he's buried behind, Koji, Taz and Mujica as the fourth RHP (Badenhop too?) with Miller and Breslow as the lefties, then how much is he pitching at this point? Does it make more sense to put him in AAA to keep him stretched out and throwing regularly then it does to have him in that role? Maybe that role goes to a non-roster invited who has an opt out so there's more depth.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 17, 2014 11:24:56 GMT -5
If everyone remains healthy, I think it's likely that the random extra relievers will dictate where Workman starts the season. Mijares, Hill, and (significantly less likely) Layne, Villareal, and Cordero -- if one of those guys looks great in ST, then you can make room for him by having Workman start for the PawSox. If the best of that bunch represents a downgrade from Workman, then Workman's in the MLB pen.
Aside from Sizemore, this seems to be the only roster-decision situation to watch.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 17, 2014 11:45:52 GMT -5
Add Alex Wilson and Drake Britton. I'd say that having Drake Britton (or Hill or Mijares, if they are throwing well) as 3rd LHP in the pen and Workman starting in AAA helps this club more than having Workman as the 4th or 5th rhp in the Boston
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Post by jmei on Feb 17, 2014 12:16:02 GMT -5
They're stretching Britton out as a starter in Spring Training, but I think he's a lock to start the season in a bullpen role (either in AAA or the majors). Otherwise, I agree with Eric's analysis above.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 17, 2014 12:58:02 GMT -5
If everyone remains healthy, I think it's likely that the random extra relievers will dictate where Workman starts the season. Mijares, Hill, and (significantly less likely) Layne, Villareal, and Cordero -- if one of those guys looks great in ST, then you can make room for him by having Workman start for the PawSox. If the best of that bunch represents a downgrade from Workman, then Workman's in the MLB pen. Aside from Sizemore, this seems to be the only roster-decision situation to watch. Related question: what is a more valuable roster slot on average, the 5th or 6th guy in the bullpen, or a team's sixth starter? My gut says the 6th starter, but I don't really know that. This is assuming the traditional swing-man (e.g. Ramiro Mendoza) is not the answer to both situations ...
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Post by redsoxmarc on Feb 17, 2014 19:47:59 GMT -5
I just don't think it's worthwhile having Workman biding his time in Pawtucket waiting for an injury. Plus in a way it takes away from their rotation depth because then the Paw rotation would be Workman, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, De La Rosa, Hinojosa so someone gets pushed to the Pawtucket pen right away. Hopefully Owens is added to that mix sooner than later. I know these things have a way of working themselves out. I just would hate to see people not get opportunities to prove themselves. I'm much more worried about solid relief pitching depth, which I think Workman provides. I wouldn't really trust Britton or Wilson in any type of a big spot.
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Post by raftsox on Feb 17, 2014 20:04:42 GMT -5
I really don't think Workman is a long term answer as a starting pitcher. He only throws two pitches well, his delivery suggests that he won't be able to hold velocity late in games and he currently sports a reverse split.
I like the guy a lot but that profile screams reliever. At this point I think you need to evaluate Webster in the majors as often as you can to see if he's a legitimate starter in 2015 and beyond. Between Buch and Peavy you can pencil him in for 20 starts.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 17, 2014 20:28:43 GMT -5
Two obvious names that haven't been discussed are Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez. Both names can now be considered at least from a salary standpoint whereas they could not before Dempster's announcement.
I'd like to see if there is at least one person on this board who thinks that either name is someone the Red Sox should consider. I am not sure myself, but both pitchers possess the type of stuff that isn't found among the the Red Sox core starting prospects. Both pitchers obviously have the proven ability to be at least the 2nd best pitcher on a contending team.
I think that even the most aredent detractors would have to agree that either pitcher would represent an upgrade.
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Post by redsoxmarc on Feb 17, 2014 21:32:15 GMT -5
Well Jiminez appears to be going to Baltimore now but Santana doesn't seem to have the consistency you'd look for when signing someone to that type of contract. Plus I'm not sure he would have the mentality to pitch in Boston. Sure he may be better than Peavy and Doubront this year but his contract would be an albatross in years 3 and 4 and hopefully some of the Sox pitching prospects pan out to go along with Lester, Buchholz and Doubront. I'd just hate to give up a first round draft pick for a guy I don't think puts the Red Sox over the top.
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Post by jmei on Feb 17, 2014 21:51:18 GMT -5
I'm not sure Santana actually is better than what the Red Sox already have in their rotation. I looked up the 2014 FIP projections of each player using Steamer, Oliver, and ZiPS and averaged them. Santana comes out trailing both Peavy and Doubront:
Peavy: 3.78 (3.92, 3.74, 3.67) Doubront: 4.05 (3.87, 4.13, 4.15) Santana: 4.27 (3.71, 4.59, 4.53)
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Post by okin15 on Feb 17, 2014 23:30:29 GMT -5
why would the sox spend big bucks on a sixth starter? Sure, you can't have too much pitching, but they're not that short, and you don't usually pay premiums (or draft picks) for guys who have no roster spot.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 18, 2014 0:36:02 GMT -5
why would the sox spend big bucks on a sixth starter? Sure, you can't have too much pitching, but they're not that short, and you don't usually pay premiums (or draft picks) for guys who have no roster spot. Because those two guys are not sixth starters. If anything, I think people are WAY overrating the five penciled in starters.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 18, 2014 2:01:55 GMT -5
why would the sox spend big bucks on a sixth starter? Sure, you can't have too much pitching, but they're not that short, and you don't usually pay premiums (or draft picks) for guys who have no roster spot. Because those two guys are not sixth starters. If anything, I think people are WAY overrating the five penciled in starters. That may be true for Peavy. He looked gassed at the end of the year. But Doubront has real potential upside, while Santana is headed the other way. That's before you even get to the projections that jmei lists.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 18, 2014 8:37:34 GMT -5
why would the sox spend big bucks on a sixth starter? Sure, you can't have too much pitching, but they're not that short, and you don't usually pay premiums (or draft picks) for guys who have no roster spot. Because those two guys are not sixth starters. If anything, I think people are WAY overrating the five penciled in starters. It seemed to work for Boston last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2014 9:28:06 GMT -5
why would the sox spend big bucks on a sixth starter? Sure, you can't have too much pitching, but they're not that short, and you don't usually pay premiums (or draft picks) for guys who have no roster spot. Because those two guys are not sixth starters. If anything, I think people are WAY overrating the five penciled in starters. How should we be rating them? Who the hell is Santana going to displace? Unless there is a Cliff Lee out there, forget it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 18, 2014 14:09:03 GMT -5
Doubront will be the second most valuable starter this year behind Lester and I expect a good year from Lackey.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 19, 2014 2:22:45 GMT -5
@ken_Rosenthal: Sources: #RedSox talking to Capuano.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2014 4:34:05 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 19, 2014 8:01:13 GMT -5
Because those two guys are not sixth starters. If anything, I think people are WAY overrating the five penciled in starters. How should we be rating them? Who the hell is Santana going to displace? Unless there is a Cliff Lee out there, forget it. You may feel that way but the Red Sox are looking into a veteran starting pitcher just not at the Santana level. According to Ken Rosenthal they are looking at Chris Capuano. If I remember correctly, Capuano was one of the guys they looked at along with Bruce Chen to help stop the bleeding in 2011. Given the loss of Dempster and Wright that's the smart thing to do.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 19, 2014 9:14:08 GMT -5
How should we be rating them? Who the hell is Santana going to displace? Unless there is a Cliff Lee out there, forget it. You may feel that way but the Red Sox are looking into a veteran starting pitcher just not at the Santana level. According to Ken Rosenthal they are looking at Chris Capuano. If I remember correctly, Capuano was one of the guys they looked at along with Bruce Chen to help stop the bleeding in 2011. Given the loss of Dempster and Wright that's the smart thing to do. Makes a lot more sense to save the money for the trade deadline in my opinion.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 19, 2014 10:05:11 GMT -5
I don't really get how having a replacement for Dempster is a need. I don't see many pitchers not pitching much in the bullpen that are capable of being effective at starting without being stretched out. Maybe having him on a minor league deal... It seems that Cherington is a little OCD about depth. It's good for us, but a limit has to be reached sometime. We were all resigned to dumping Dempster for nothing before he retired. Now people are talking about replacing him.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 19, 2014 10:13:10 GMT -5
How should we be rating them? Who the hell is Santana going to displace? Unless there is a Cliff Lee out there, forget it. You may feel that way but the Red Sox are looking into a veteran starting pitcher just not at the Santana level. According to Ken Rosenthal they are looking at Chris Capuano. If I remember correctly, Capuano was one of the guys they looked at along with Bruce Chen to help stop the bleeding in 2011. Given the loss of Dempster and Wright that's the smart thing to do. Capuano wouldn't displace anyone either, other than Workman who would start in AAA barring injuries. I just don't know how many 6th starters sitting in the bullpen not pitching much can be effective spot starters.
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Post by okin15 on Feb 19, 2014 10:27:44 GMT -5
I'm all for the Sox getting a guy on a Minor League contract or a long man for the 'pen, but I don't want them spending real dollars. Capuano is worth 1-2 WAR and is probably more injury insurance than anything else. He'd be the perfect guy to bring in, but not Santana who would cost a pick and a lot of dollars and we would absolutely have to find him a spot to play. I really think the Sox have 5 top-4 guys -- only the maturing Doubront hasn't pitched a season at a 3rd starter level.
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