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Post by charliezink16 on Feb 25, 2014 8:41:21 GMT -5
www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-10-prospects-boston-red-sox/1) Xander Bogaerts 2) Jackie Bradley Jr. 3) Garin Cecchini 4) Mookie Betts 5) Blake Swihart 6) Henry Owens 7) Matt Barnes 8) Trey Ball 9) Allen Webster 10) Christian Vazquez 11) Jon Denney 12) Manny Margot 13) Anthony Ranaudo 14) Deven Marrerro 15) Brandon Workman Interesting placements for Owens, Denney, and Workman. I love the Vazquez placement though, just odd to see a low ceiling guy in Vaz at 10 while Workman sits at 15.
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Post by jchang on Feb 25, 2014 9:23:05 GMT -5
FG has Bogaerts at grade 70, the 2-9 guys at 60, and Vazquez at 55. Without a 5 point difference in the grade, I would not quibble over the ranking of prospects in the same grade.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 25, 2014 9:56:57 GMT -5
Wow Denney at #11, that seems a little high to me. But I've also learned my lesson in judging Marc Hulet for ranking a guy what appears to be ridiculously higher than everyone else. Because last time he did that (Mookie Betts) he turned out to be completely right.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 25, 2014 10:33:29 GMT -5
Substitute Devers for Denney and that list makes a lot more sense to me.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2014 10:36:13 GMT -5
This quip was interesting:
The Year Ahead: Webster has a shot at beating out Felix Doubront for the fifth starter’s role
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 25, 2014 10:39:53 GMT -5
This quip was interesting: The Year Ahead: Webster has a shot at beating out Felix Doubront for the fifth starter’s role That's crazier than the Denney ranking. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2014 11:36:25 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Feb 25, 2014 11:40:27 GMT -5
Workman just doesn't get much love does he. Can't say I disaagreee that much with the Mookster though. I sure hope he's right about this stuff because I would love to see Ball, Denney, Marrerro, Vasquez and Margot all be better players than the floor that Workman appears to be already.
A guy from fangraphs would seem to be more likely to be a numbers guy. Is Hulet more of a scout?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2014 11:49:24 GMT -5
The Steamers leave a lot to be desired. Bradley with a 1 def, Swihart and Vazquez equal 8's. Margot a better defender than Bradley (now), Xander a better defender than Morero, etc, etc, etc. I think there's too much underlying the stats to make Steamers for minor league players and have there be any real value.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Feb 25, 2014 11:55:58 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2014 12:03:11 GMT -5
This quip was interesting: The Year Ahead: Webster has a shot at beating out Felix Doubront for the fifth starter’s role That's crazier than the Denney ranking. I wouldn't call "has a shot" crazy. We're all optimistic that the real Doubront stands up but what if he doesn't and what if Webster figures out that the object is to hit, not miss, the catcher's glove ? |
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Post by godot on Feb 25, 2014 12:05:26 GMT -5
Gunkel is listed at about 48 by Sox Prospects. Nice year at Lowell, but at 21 (and now 22) and playing college ball, wasn't he a bit too old and experienced for that level? It will be interesting where they place him this year.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 25, 2014 12:06:23 GMT -5
Makes sense though given how effective Felix was out of the bullpen in the post season. Not a bad problem to have.
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Post by okin15 on Feb 25, 2014 13:37:56 GMT -5
If Gunkel pitches well at Salem (this year), we can talk.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Feb 25, 2014 14:17:43 GMT -5
Margot better be playing full season ball, he seemed to question that.
The sample size with Denney was still small and his approach seemed fine. Hopefully whatever issue he faced was mental and corrected, or fatigue based. If you believe in Denney's bat putting him 11th is justifiable. He could be Gary Sanchez eventually if all goes well.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 25, 2014 14:38:23 GMT -5
That's crazier than the Denney ranking. I wouldn't call "has a shot" crazy. We're all optimistic that the real Doubront stands up but what if he doesn't and what if Webster figures out that the object is to hit, not miss, the catcher's glove ? In July maybe. But out of spring training? I don't really see any non-trade scenario where a healthy Doubront isn't in the rotation to start the season. Doubront's already an established major leaguer and his realistic ceiling is just as high as Webster's. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 25, 2014 18:08:35 GMT -5
This quip was interesting: The Year Ahead: Webster has a shot at beating out Felix Doubront for the fifth starter’s role That's crazier than the Denney ranking. Yea Doubront isn't the 5th starter. Peavy is and by the end of the year Doubront will be the number 2 or 3 even when Lackey pitches well. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 25, 2014 18:11:45 GMT -5
The only real crazy part to this list, in my opinion, is Denny being on it period.
We can always question players positioning, but the other 14 seem to be consensus top 15 guys.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 25, 2014 19:12:00 GMT -5
For Webster to knock out Doubront, you'd have to have Webster suddenly harnessing decent command (which would be a huge leap for him), plus an absolutely miserable spring for Doubront. With Dooby reportedly arriving to ST in far better shape than past seasons, there's no reason to expect such a collapse. In fact, I'm looking at him as a major breakout candidate this year, due both to an improved (efficient) approach and better conditioning this offseason. After all, he pitched like an effective mid-rotation starter last season for all but two months, including September when he was noticeably run down. He got jerked to the pen after some rest and gave up 11 ER in two appearances (only to come up huge in that role in the playoffs). His K/9 also declined every single month, beginning at 11.2 in April and ending at a shoddy 5.7 in Sep/Oct (regular season). Notably, his velocity didn't trend in any notable direction, it simply was just lower overall than past seasons.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 25, 2014 20:17:53 GMT -5
I'm curious to see all of the things that factored into Denney's ranking. There has been almost no positive news on him since he was drafted. I believe it was Speier in his BA chat that said Denney had very little support from scouts he talked to.
I've said this before, but I think these national rankings sites are really sleeping on Ranaudo. If his sudden decline in late June last year really was fatigue and his velocity stays up for most of this year, he is an elite top-50ish prospect. I don't see a reasonable argument to rank Margot or Vazquez ahead of him never mind Denney.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2014 21:20:01 GMT -5
For Webster to knock out Doubront, you'd have to have Webster suddenly harnessing decent command (which would be a huge leap for him), plus an absolutely miserable spring for Doubront. With Dooby reportedly arriving to ST in far better shape than past seasons, there's no reason to expect such a collapse. In fact, I'm looking at him as a major breakout candidate this year, due both to an improved (efficient) approach and better conditioning this offseason. After all, he pitched like an effective mid-rotation starter last season for all but two months, including September when he was noticeably run down. He got jerked to the pen after some rest and gave up 11 ER in two appearances (only to come up huge in that role in the playoffs). His K/9 also declined every single month, beginning at 11.2 in April and ending at a shoddy 5.7 in Sep/Oct (regular season). Notably, his velocity didn't trend in any notable direction, it simply was just lower overall than past seasons. I'm not saying that Doubront isn't the heavy favorite or that I think anyone is likely to be there. Just saying "has a shot" isn't an outrageous statement. You could say the same of Workman. If either is clearly better to Farrell, I believe there's a "shot". They'd have to have a gentleman's agreement type DFA for Doubront. The velocity drop, btw, is on the back of my mind. |
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Post by kman22 on Feb 25, 2014 21:21:09 GMT -5
Based on what I've read (I haven't had the opportunity to see him in person), Denney developed some bad tendencies trying to deal with opponents pitching around him. His professional debut was spent working to undo that and get back to what made him a 1st round prospect.
That leads me to believe we should hold off on docking his prospect status until we have a legitimate sample size this season.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 25, 2014 21:23:42 GMT -5
I've said this before, but I think these national rankings sites are really sleeping on Ranaudo. If his sudden decline in late June last year really was fatigue and his velocity stays up for most of this year, he is an elite top-50ish prospect. I don't see a reasonable argument to rank Margot or Vazquez ahead of him never mind Denney. Word. I don't get the thing with Ranaudo, his performance was undeniable last year and he has a high pedigree. It seems he gets caught in a certain paradox. It seems like the same guys that now knock him based on scouting reports, regardless of his stats, once raved about his tools when the numbers weren't there. Make up your minds. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 25, 2014 21:33:18 GMT -5
I'm curious to see all of the things that factored into Denney's ranking. There has been almost no positive news on him since he was drafted. I believe it was Speier in his BA chat that said Denney had very little support from scouts he talked to. I've said this before, but I think these national rankings sites are really sleeping on Ranaudo. If his sudden decline in late June last year really was fatigue and his velocity stays up for most of this year, he is an elite top-50ish prospect. I don't see a reasonable argument to rank Margot or Vazquez ahead of him never mind Denney. I'm sorry, I really can't get that excited about a 24 year old pitcher who hasn't been healthy and good for an entire season since... some point in college, I guess? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2014 21:38:11 GMT -5
I've said this before, but I think these national rankings sites are really sleeping on Ranaudo. If his sudden decline in late June last year really was fatigue and his velocity stays up for most of this year, he is an elite top-50ish prospect. I don't see a reasonable argument to rank Margot or Vazquez ahead of him never mind Denney. Word. I don't get the thing with Ranaudo, his performance was undeniable last year and he has a high pedigree. It seems he gets caught in a certain paradox. It seems like the same guys that now knock him based on scouting reports, regardless of his stats, once raved about his tools when the numbers weren't there. Make up your minds. I think it's more of a lingering injury history hangup. I'm as big a Ranaudo fan as anyone but realistically he needs to maintain arm strength for an entire season before you can completely erase the questions. If there was a rash of injuries and Ranaudo was in Boston's rotation, would you be confident that he's still going to have it in September ? |
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