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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 28, 2014 8:56:06 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz is not a good comparison for any pitcher; he is one of a relatively small group of pitchers who have been able to consistently outperform their peripherals (he's third in the league since 2009 in FDP wins). I'm of the opinion that any pitcher who outperforms their peripherals over a small sample with no previous history of doing so is probably due for regression. This is especially true with a pitcher like Doubront who (a) has no history of meaningfully outperforming a league-average BABIP either in the majors or the minors, (b) does not fit the profile of those pitchers who can usually outperform their peripherals (fairly extensive research indicates that the following classes of pitchers often induce weaker contact: high-strikeout pitchers, extreme ground-ball pitchers, pitchers who get lots of IFFB, knuckleballers) and (c) did not maintain his success through the end of the season. That's fair and I'm of the opinion that using previous results to predict the future of a developing player doesn't tell us much either as that player is no longer the player he was when producing those numbers. The question here is if Doubront is developing as a pitcher? If not, we know what he is, which is still very useful. If so, we don't know what he'll be this year. Time will tell.
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