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BP Org Rankings: Sox at #4
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 27, 2014 16:25:09 GMT -5
Taillon features a fastball that sits 92-96 with heavy life and has reached triple digits. Both BA and BP refer to his curve as plus. Changeup is below average right now, as is command. He's got a great frame at 6-6, 235.
Owens works at something like 88-92, but showed great velo fluctuations last year, working in the high 80s some nights. Has good late life. Change is great. Curve flashes plus but he loves the slower one of his two and scouts tend to think it will get hit at MLB level. But will have a good three-pitch mix. Good feel for pitching but also has below average command right now. Really lanky and has added a lot of muscle to even get to current 6-6, 205.
Stat-wise, Owens misses more bats but also walks more guys. Taillon is one level closer to the bigs and is about half a year older.
So it really depends, I think, on how you see each guy developing. That said, I don't think that you can reasonably dismiss Taillon being favored across the board as being due to his HS pedigree. Owens succeeds by deception and having a feel for pitching. Taillon succeeds with power and two plus pitches. Guys like Taillon are usually universally preferred until we see what happens in the majors.
Me? I'll take Taillon without hesitation still, but admit this exercise showed me that it was closer than I thought.
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Post by jchang on Feb 27, 2014 22:48:27 GMT -5
Concerning the opportunity to see Owens pitch, Readings and Trenton are closer to DC than Portland, plus my MA inspection sticker is expired, so I would have to drive in at night and get it inspected before getting pulled over. Portland does not play at Bowie until Aug, that was Owens AA debut last year, so I am considering the possibility that Owens may not be with Portland come Aug. I don't see the point of comparing Owens to the top pitching prospects, several of whom could be top of the rotation starters. If Owens develops into a solid 3 starter, or even 4, he would be immensely valuable to a team that does not get many opportunities to pick 1-5 in the draft.
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Post by stevedillard on May 25, 2014 6:45:59 GMT -5
Looks like the deep pool got shallow pretty quickly. Outside of the top 20 I see only Kukuk and Gunkel as intriguing prospects. They need a great draft to start replenishing the back end of the pool.
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Post by jmei on May 25, 2014 8:34:52 GMT -5
Looks like the deep pool got shallow pretty quickly. Outside of the top 20 I see only Kukuk and Gunkel as intriguing prospects. They need a great draft to start replenishing the back end of the pool. This is kind of a silly way to look at it. If you're concerned about talent in the low minors, it makes much more sense to look at each affiliate and see if there are any dead spots. Pawtucket has five starting pitchers who are or have been ranked in top 100 lists, as well as some MLB-ready relievers and two org top-10 position players. Portland is obviously stacked. The Salem position players are (still) pretty brutal, but they have two high-upside starting pitchers in Mercedes and Kukuk and a few other guys who might be relievers (Littrell, Light, Martin, etc). Greenville has Callahan, Stankiewicz, Ball, Rijo, and Margot, along with some dark horse types (Asuaje, Lin, McGrath, Smith, Gunkel, etc). Lowell and the GCL don't look particularly strong (although you never know if one of the DSL guys will pop up), but that's what the upcoming draft is for. In general, I think the pitching half of the system is pretty stacked. The position player side, though, is pretty light at the low minors, as aside from Rijo, Margot, and Devers, there's not a lot else there once you go lower than Portland.
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Post by moonstone2 on May 25, 2014 9:31:40 GMT -5
For me the pitching side has a lot of guys who have a decent chance to help a major league rotation or bullpen but very thin in terms of top end arms.
The only pitcher in the system who is generally regarded as having a realistic chance to be even a #2 is Trey Ball and he's not pitching well.
On the position side it's the opposite problem. The top of the system has some potential role players but not a lot in terms of everyday talent.
But the bottom part of the system has the three players you mention who are all potential high end talents. Add Mookie, there is decent chance that there is a position player in the system who plays in multiple all-star games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 26, 2014 22:06:20 GMT -5
Overall, I'm very happy with our organization so this isn't intended to be a knock.
Next years opening day Portland team is likely to be decent ceiling but relatively inexperienced pitchers and a ton of org guys manning everything else.
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2014 8:13:11 GMT -5
Looks like the deep pool got shallow pretty quickly. Outside of the top 20 I see only Kukuk and Gunkel as intriguing prospects. They need a great draft to start replenishing the back end of the pool. I'd guess that most teams don't have intriguing prospects outside the top 20.
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Post by ibsmith85 on May 28, 2014 13:36:48 GMT -5
Looks like the deep pool got shallow pretty quickly. Outside of the top 20 I see only Kukuk and Gunkel as intriguing prospects. They need a great draft to start replenishing the back end of the pool. I'd guess that most teams don't have intriguing prospects outside the top 20. I agree with JimEd, and whats you're definition of intriguing? Because I'd argue that the top 26 are all very intriguing. In addition to that there is Couch, Celestino, Haley, Smith and Buttrey. Plus the GCL/DSL teams are about to start up. I'd agree with you that the lower levels are lacking in bats, but there are intriguing arms up and down this system.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 28, 2014 14:32:10 GMT -5
Almost everyone in XST could be intriguing once they start to play (I'm interested in seeing what Nick Longhi looks like) ... which goes to my point: everyone looks intriguing in the offseason, then it starts to weed out during the year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on May 28, 2014 19:34:03 GMT -5
Overall, I'm very happy with our organization so this isn't intended to be a knock. Next years opening day Portland team is likely to be decent ceiling but relatively inexperienced pitchers and a ton of org guys manning everything else. 100% true. Decent pitching, possibly Asuaje as a prospect and move the entire salem roster as a complete whole up a level. It will be a downgrade for fans at Portland offensive wise, though they still should get to see some decent pitching prospects. Margot and Rijo both have and outside chance at skipping Salem also if they get back on track like they were earlier this season and both are still really young.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 28, 2014 20:29:54 GMT -5
Margot and Rijo both have and outside chance at skipping Salem also if they get back on track like they were earlier this season and both are still really young. What? Skip Salem? Especially with guys so young for the league? Ain't gonna happen. Name any players, other than org guys, that have skipped Salem (or A+)? Nobody comes to mind, but they are assuredly few and far between. Craig Hansen maybe?
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Post by tonyc on May 30, 2014 22:48:00 GMT -5
Much analysis has been done at this site with a conclusion that the 5 starting prospects at Pawtucket, and the two at Portland will likely lack the ceiling of a first or second starter. I beg to differ on the basis that firstly, they have 7 starting candidates who have big league starter potential, and there are odds that one or two may exceed their current projection. Secondly, as highly tuned as the posters and maintainers of this site are- hence my reading here for years but posting infrequently- the fact is that with prognosticating pitching, as opposed to hitting- you will be much more inaccurate than you are assuming. It's analogous to comparing a fairly tight science, physics, to psychology, which lacks a single paradigm holding it together. The fact is that year to year consistency in pitchers, let alone prospects is so vulnerable to health on the upside, and can be so augmented by changes in pitchers arsenal year to year- adding a cutter, a splitter, etc, that predicting it with accuracy become relatively- though not absolutely difficult. A caveat is with someone like Abe Alvarez there was an absolute ceiling. However, once you have 7 starters with the overall talent and stuff which those prospects have, it's too probable for Webster and Owens to learn to pitch to contact, for Delarosa to gain endurance and velocity post TJ, for Renaudo and Barnes to sharpen their breaking pitches- I"m optimistic that one or more of these will come through.
The other person who feels the same way is Ben Cherrington. He's sharp and did not coincidentally under offer Lester- he did so to buy time to see if indeed one or more of these prospects shines sufficiently to let him go or trade him (and yes also to be sure if Lester shows consistency and make him that 4-5 year offer). This is a great, exciting time to be a sox fan, with Workman having gone tonight and De La Rosa tomorrow!
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Post by mgoetze on May 30, 2014 22:50:38 GMT -5
This is a great, exciting time to be a sox fan, with Workman having gone tonight and De La Rosa tomorrow! And Webster going in the game Workman will be suspended for!
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Post by amfox1 on May 30, 2014 23:37:58 GMT -5
Note: I added the last two posts to this thread. No need for a separate thread on this.
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