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BP Org Rankings: Sox at #4
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2014 6:39:24 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2014 6:55:21 GMT -5
Straw man statement
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2014 7:05:35 GMT -5
Off-hand, unresearched comment meant to lighten a post, the point of which was to link to a piece that readers here might find interesting Fixed |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2014 7:32:26 GMT -5
LOL, your avatar pic goes well with that.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2014 7:49:01 GMT -5
I think Parks hates the Astros.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 26, 2014 9:47:59 GMT -5
In related news, I've ranked "straw man" #1 on my list of "most overused phrases on the SP boards". Seriously guys, ease up, you're going to void the warrantee on that thing. |
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 26, 2014 10:25:15 GMT -5
In related news Henry Owens won't be opening the year in AAA. He may not pitch there until the end of the year, even if things go well for him in AA.
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Post by patrmac04 on Feb 26, 2014 13:09:40 GMT -5
In related news Henry Owens won't be opening the year in AAA. He may not pitch there until the end of the year, even if things go well for him in AA. Is this a statement of opinion or do you have a link to support your statement? |
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 26, 2014 13:40:51 GMT -5
It's opinion like 90% of the posts on here are. I'm pretty sure the starting in AA is pretty damn close to fact though and you shouldn't need a link to realize that.
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Post by soxcentral on Feb 26, 2014 13:43:32 GMT -5
I blame BA ranking us #2 for the reason everyone seems so pissed off in this thread. Expectations are just too high.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 26, 2014 15:02:07 GMT -5
In related news Henry Owens won't be opening the year in AAA. He may not pitch there until the end of the year, even if things go well for him in AA. Is this a statement of opinion or do you have a link to support your statement? Owens barely has 30 innings above A ball and he is only 21 years old. With his command issues, and a deep deep rotation in Pawtucket there really is no need to rush him. It's a relatively safe bet that even if he pitches well he will spend the majority of the season in Portland. I mean maybe if he is putting up R-Tarded ridunkulous stats in AA then maybe we can talk about a mid-season promotion. But there is no reason to think (nor worry if he does) he won't be more challenged this year. I probably could have brought this up in the Owens thread. Sorry for steering this off topic. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2014 15:15:06 GMT -5
I think he's referring to Owens being in the "Players to See There" section, referring to Pawtucket.
Anyway, they could just mean that he'll be there at some point this season, which isn't a ridiculous statement at all.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 26, 2014 15:55:50 GMT -5
From the article:
"Note: Players mentioned in the "Prospects To See There" sections aren't necessarily starting the season at the "Must-See Affiliate." However, they may appear there at some point in 2014."
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Post by jchang on Feb 26, 2014 16:18:20 GMT -5
I am certainly hoping Owens is in AA at the start of the season. Portland first 2 series are near DC. I am planning bringing my camera to take a video. I may borrow my dentists Canon 5D, of course if it gets damaged, there will be pay back.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 26, 2014 16:31:29 GMT -5
I am certainly hoping Owens is in AA at the start of the season. Portland first 2 series are near DC. I am planning bringing my camera to take a video. I may borrow my dentists Canon 5D, of course if it gets damaged, there will be pay back. Oh, that's a good call ... Bowie? I gotta check the schedule. edit to add: Reading & Trenton? I admire your dedication, not sure I'd consider them "near DC" ... |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 26, 2014 19:21:00 GMT -5
The fact that St. Louis can graduate the guys they did and remain at #6 is scary.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 27, 2014 9:53:51 GMT -5
I blame BA ranking us #2 for the reason everyone seems so pissed off in this thread. Expectations are just too high. I don't know....trying to be as unbiased as possible (huge caveat I know), I would rank our system at #2 behind Minnesota, and the difference between the MIN system and our system is negligible. I understand that the Cub's system is oozing with bats and power bats at that, but I prefer our system overall as I think we have the clear edge in pitching and depth. Pittsburgh has a strong farm, but I can't make an reasonable case for ranking their system over ours. If we're talking about high end talent, would anyone really take Gregory Polanco over Bogaerts? Is Taillon have more upside than say Henry Owens? If we're talking about the back half of the top 10, would guys like Luis Heredia and Josh Bell make it into our top 10 (over guys like Ranaudo, Ball, etc.)? If we're talking about further depth, I think our 11-20 clearly ranks ahead of theirs as well. I don't think they have guys like Vazquez, Margot, Brian Johnson, Stankiewicz, and Devers hiding in their 11-20. In fact, I think that level of player compares to the 7-10 players in the Pirate system. |
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Post by jmei on Feb 27, 2014 10:02:45 GMT -5
Is Taillon have more upside than say Henry Owens? If we're talking about the back half of the top 10, would guys like Luis Heredia and Josh Bell make it into our top 10 (over guys like Ranaudo, Ball, etc.)? Yes, absolutely, to both of the above, and it's not close. ADD: on Mayo's Uber rankings, here's how they come out: Taillon: 18 Owens: 48 Bell: 95 Ball: 117 Ranaudo: NR Heredia: NR |
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Post by ramireja on Feb 27, 2014 10:20:22 GMT -5
Is Taillon have more upside than say Henry Owens? If we're talking about the back half of the top 10, would guys like Luis Heredia and Josh Bell make it into our top 10 (over guys like Ranaudo, Ball, etc.)? . ADD: on Mayo's Uber rankings, here's how they come out: Taillon: 18 Owens: 48 Bell: 95 Ball: 117 Ranaudo: NR Heredia: NR I appreciate your anti bias, but that seems a bit strong. Taillon is a guy with one plus pitch, his fastball, and upside in his secondary, but both his breaking ball and offspeed reportedly need sharpening. His numbers are solid, especially given that he was 21 and spent most of the year in Double A while touching Triple A, but he didn't exactly light the world on fire (sorry for the basic stats but WHIP was 1.34 at Double-A and 1.27 at Triple-A). I don't see a clear difference in prospect status from Owens IMO. ...and I absolutely would not rank Heredia and Bell over anyone in our top 10. The upside is certainly there with those guys so I may eat my words, but I seem them as on par with guys like Margot in our system....guys with tools that still have much more to prove. All of the guys in our top 10 have proven themselves at the Double-A level or higher with the exception of Ball. Two guys I haven't mentioned that generally slot between 4-7 in the Pirates system are Meadows and McGuire....two guys we passed on. Ball is having a hard time cracking our top 10. Are Meadows and McGuire clearly the better prospects that the front office missed? |
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Post by jmei on Feb 27, 2014 10:29:28 GMT -5
Taillon's stuff is easily a notch or two better than Owens', and he's a year ahead in terms of development. You'll be hard-pressed to find a single evaluator who agrees they're on the same tier. Bell/Heredia is more of a judgment call, but they're both comfortably ahead of Margot (in terms of both development and upside) and have the tools and ceilings to leap ahead of guys like Ranaudo or Workman or Ball for me.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2014 10:31:36 GMT -5
Ball has a hard time cracking our top 10 because he pitched 7 innings last year. If we took Meadows, he'd probably be up in our 5-8 range.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 27, 2014 11:51:38 GMT -5
If Ball has a good showing this year he could easily be ranked above Meadows. Who cares about the ranking of guys who were just drafted? It's a crapshoot, aside from Kris Bryant who seems like a lock to be a very good hitter.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 27, 2014 12:23:56 GMT -5
If Ball has a good showing this year he could easily be ranked above Meadows. Who cares about the ranking of guys who were just drafted? It's a crapshoot, aside from Kris Bryant who seems like a lock to be a very good hitter. I care about the ranking to the extent that their relative ranking in their own system may reflect the strength of the system. In that sense, their two first round picks slot somewhere between 4-7, whereas ours is on the cusp of the top 10. |
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Post by ramireja on Feb 27, 2014 12:36:08 GMT -5
Taillon's stuff is easily a notch or two better than Owens', and he's a year ahead in terms of development. You'll be hard-pressed to find a single evaluator who agrees they're on the same tier. Bell/Heredia is more of a judgment call, but they're both comfortably ahead of Margot (in terms of both development and upside) and have the tools and ceilings to leap ahead of guys like Ranaudo or Workman or Ball for me. I would agree that most evaluators will have Taillon on a tier higher than Owens. I'd wager that is mostly based on Taillon's high school pedigree and the fact that he's knocking on the door to the majors. The reports don't necessarily indicate that his stuff is a notch (and certainly not two) better than Owens. He certainly has the edge in fastball velocity, but it seems as though Owens has the edge with regards to secondary stuff, certainly if his curveball is considered plus but thats probably debatable. With regards to development, they're almost on the same track in terms of age advancement, although I think you were stating that Taillon is simply a year ahead on this track. Taillon was 21 last year and made 20 appearances in Double-A and 6 in Triple-A. Owens will be 21 until July 21, and has made 6 starts at Double-A going into the season. My guess is Owens moves to Triple-A sometime after he turns 22, but they're essentially on the same track. Not to pick on you, but I think at one point you suggested a hypothetical Carp for Bell/Heredia trade. Granted, you probably admitted that was a bit farfetched and/or optimistic, but if someone else offered us Carp for Ranaudo and Ball, you would have to admit that would just be silly. Just of curiosity....on the whole, would you rank the Pirate's system over ours? |
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Post by jmei on Feb 27, 2014 14:41:58 GMT -5
Taillon's fastball is just head-and-shoulders better than Owens', in terms of both velocity/movement but also command and control, and having a good fastball is just much more important than having good offspeed pitches (you throw the fastball more often, can use it to set up your secondary stuff (whereas it's harder to "pitch backwards"), etc). And yeah, Taillon is just a year ahead of Owens, but that matters insofar as it reduces the overall risk profile, both in terms of health and performance.
In retrospect, that Bell/Heredia trade was clearly wayyy too optimistic (though I think I later revised it to Carp-for-Heredia, which I still think is pretty fair). I do think Heredia compares reasonably well to Ball, while Bell compares reasonably well to Betts-- you can prefer one or the other, but they're similar prospects and probably on the same tier. Given that, I don't think it's crazy to prefer the Pirates' system.
I often find it slightly annoying to compare systems because of the vagaries of the prospect eligibility rules. For instance, Xander is still prospect eligible, while Cole isn't, even though they're both going to be starters on the MLB team from day one this season. But overall, I think they're pretty comparable, but I probably slightly prefer the Pirates' system, if only because it's slightly heavier on position players (who are less likely to bust due to injury).
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