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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2014 0:10:09 GMT -5
Eh. Betts, Castillo, Cespedes, Shanf, Holt can all man it based on who's already there, so he could be sixth. Same difference. Fair enough, but there's no way in hell that I'd call Cespedes a CF option any more than I'd want to put Nava there. Yeah, Soxfan makes the point I was trying to make. It's fair to point out that the CF depth chart isn't necessarily the same as the OF depth chart in a general sense, but the Sox have options. Would all depend on the situation of course, but options 1 and 2, with the team as presently constructed, would almost certainly be Castillo and Betts. Of course, that's all a bit silly, because there's no way the team is constructed this way on opening day. If they trade both, say, Cespedes and Victorino, an injury to either Castillo or Betts could make Bradley the best call-up option, for sure. Just depends what, exactly, they do.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Nov 29, 2014 12:01:05 GMT -5
What happens if he hits the ball really well in ST?
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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 29, 2014 13:00:44 GMT -5
What happens if he hits the ball really well in ST? Easy. He starts at Pawtucket. I think by now we've all learned what tearing it up in ST means. Having said that, I would be somewhat reluctant to include him in a trade unless someone is really willing to go well above his current market value. I think he has more value as a "lottery ticket" than I think he will return via a trade. He hit in AAA, so it is possible that he can make the necessary adjustments.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Dec 1, 2014 1:05:29 GMT -5
What happens if he hits the ball really well in ST? He starts in AAA. he needs to maintain consistency, then demonstrate it in Boston when his opportunities arise. I love JBJ's glove to the point where I would gladly accept league average offense from him. In my dreams I see Bets in left, Bradley in center and Castillo in right being a force for many years to come. But first, we got some vets who have to win a championships while the kids sharpen their skills.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 5, 2014 12:32:51 GMT -5
I still think Bradley can get a .370 OBP, not sure about the .430 slugging. The Red Sox really didn't handle him right. Right when he was on a hot streak they brought Betts up the first time and took away playing time. Then they send him down at the end of the year. I think you need to give a young player like Bradley more time to work through his problems. I can see it now, we trade him and a couple years down the line, he's an all star for the A's or some other well run team.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2014 12:46:36 GMT -5
I still think Bradley can get a .370 OBP, not sure about the .430 slugging. The Red Sox really didn't handle him right. Right when he was on a hot streak they brought Betts up the first time and took away playing time. Then they send him down at the end of the year. I think you need to give a young player like Bradley more time to work through his problems. I can see it now, we trade him and a couple years down the line, he's an all star for the A's or some other well run team. Bradley went on the closest thing he had to a hot streak right after Betts was called up. Betts was called up on 6/29. In the 10 games before that, Bradley hit .212/.235/.273. Then, in the 14 games after the Betts promotion, he hit .375/.434/.458. Then, from July 22 on, Bradley was 9 for 98 with a double, 3 walks, and 35 strikeouts.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 5, 2014 12:47:55 GMT -5
I still think Bradley can get a .370 OBP, not sure about the .430 slugging. The Red Sox really didn't handle him right. Right when he was on a hot streak they brought Betts up the first time and took away playing time. Then they send him down at the end of the year. I think you need to give a young player like Bradley more time to work through his problems. I can see it now, we trade him and a couple years down the line, he's an all star for the A's or some other well run team. I think they gave him that chance last year. I'm not saying he shouldn't get another at some point if the opportunity arises ( like Middlebrooks ), but I think he got time to work through his problems at the Major League level last year and now should work on them at AAA.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 5, 2014 13:50:58 GMT -5
What if the Sox hang on to him figuring the defense is reason enough to keep him on the bench and his salary. My question is going into his arbitration years like his 4th 5th and 6th years lets say nothing changes but he is awesome fielding outfielder. Can he still make good money thru the arbiter ? Will the defense make him money ?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2014 13:54:03 GMT -5
What if the Sox hang on to him figuring the defense is reason enough to keep him on the bench and his salary. My question is going into his arbitration years like his 4th 5th and 6th years lets say nothing changes but he is awesome fielding outfielder. Can he still make good money thru the arbiter ? Will the defense make him money ? Not much. They'd probably credit him for Gold Glove wins or nominations.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 5, 2014 17:15:51 GMT -5
With Betts, Castillo and Ramirez, Bradley is completely blocked. If Bradley hits reasonably well at Pawtucket, and if nothing has gone wrong with the three starters, then Bradley could become a fairly valuable trade chip at deadline time in July.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 5, 2014 17:33:25 GMT -5
I still think Bradley can get a .370 OBP, not sure about the .430 slugging. The Red Sox really didn't handle him right. Right when he was on a hot streak they brought Betts up the first time and took away playing time. Then they send him down at the end of the year. I think you need to give a young player like Bradley more time to work through his problems. I can see it now, we trade him and a couple years down the line, he's an all star for the A's or some other well run team. Bradley went on the closest thing he had to a hot streak right after Betts was called up. Betts was called up on 6/29. In the 10 games before that, Bradley hit .212/.235/.273. Then, in the 14 games after the Betts promotion, he hit .375/.434/.458. Then, from July 22 on, Bradley was 9 for 98 with a double, 3 walks, and 35 strikeouts. I think Betts was Called up on the 28th, but didn't play until the 29th. Well you can twist numbers anyway you want, 8 games before the 28th Bradley hit safely in 6 of 8 games and hit .259, which for him was a hot streak. He did then go out and have a good July with Betts on the team. I believe that Betts playing center added pressure to Bradley. Bradley had to be thinking that if he didn't hit enough Betts was going to take his Job. That's not a good sign for Bradley, wish Betts would have pushed him to a higher level. I just think Bradley can hit enough in the Majors(in time), he just needs to be handled with kid gloves. He has to improve on his mental game.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 5, 2014 17:34:24 GMT -5
With Betts, Castillo and Ramirez, Bradley is completely blocked. If Bradley hits reasonably well at Pawtucket, and if nothing has gone wrong with the three starters, then Bradley could become a fairly valuable trade chip at deadline time in July. Unless another GM values him higher than most of us do, I'd prefer to keep him. Bradley can use an entire season in AAA while competing for the CF job in 2016. How? Same way Cecchini can compete for the 2016 LF job. Again, one of Papi or Napoli are gone after the season, there is an opening at 1B/DH, which can (and probably will) be filled internally. Hanley moving to 1B/DH would open slot competition for Cecchini (LF/1B), Bradley Jr. (CF moving Castillo to LF), Craig (1B/LF), and long shots in Middlebrooks (1B), Coyle (?), Marerro (SS, X to LF), and Shaw (1B). Still, I'd expect some of the pieces to be moved this offseason.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 5, 2014 20:23:32 GMT -5
If Napoli has a good season, the Sox will try to extend him. However, he also might do well as a FA.
I am fairly high on Cecchini, but I don't think he can win a starting job with the Sox. He might do very well for another team, Oakland, for example.
There are several players in the lower levels of the Sox minors who might compete for the 1B job in another couple of years. So there might be one year or so, if Napoli leaves, when someone else has to play 1b. Shaw might be the guy if Hanley isn't.
Middlebrooks, Bradley, Brentz, Craig, Coyle, Marrero etc. will all be gone in another year or so.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 5, 2014 20:35:40 GMT -5
JBJ's bat is going to come around and make for some very difficult decisions this year. Good problems to have...
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Post by soxcentral on Dec 6, 2014 11:55:17 GMT -5
JBJ's bat is going to come around and make for some very difficult decisions this year. Good problems to have... Long term JBJ is perfectly suited to be our 4th OF if he can fix the bat. All 3 OFers are RHH and appear to be in place for the next few years. And he would be a defensive asset at all 3 positions. Definitely could see him getting 300-400 AB's per year.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 6, 2014 18:19:07 GMT -5
That may be true, but if he hits enough to be in the majors, it is a waste of his talent to be a backup, and a waste of an asset. Another team would play him fulltime. In fact, I think there are teams who would take him now and give him a shot. His defensive skills truly are remarkable. But I'd like to see how he does this coming season before trading him. There still is a chance he could fix his hitting problem and then, who knows what might happen?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 6, 2014 19:08:21 GMT -5
If he really does fix himself at the plate, he could end up being better and cheaper than Castillo. Lots can happen. Personally I hope we don't sell low on Bradley, even with our stock of CF in the system (JBJ, Betts, Castillo, Margot).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2014 20:29:04 GMT -5
If he really does fix himself at the plate, he could end up being better and cheaper than Castillo. Lots can happen. Personally I hope we don't sell low on Bradley, even with our stock of CF in the system (JBJ, Betts, Castillo, Margot). Bradley has over 500 PAs in the major leagues now, and a .196/.268/.280 line to show for it. He's also 25 next year which at the very least means his defensive value has already peaked, and it's not at age where hitters are usually able to reinvent themselves in any major way. We have to adjust our expectations here. Even if he "fixes" himself, it's hard for me to imagine he's ever going to become the .270/.370/.400 hitter that a lot of people (myself included, more or less) imagined he'd be.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2014 20:34:26 GMT -5
500 major league plate appearances is much smaller of a sample than you're making it out to be.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 7, 2014 0:14:01 GMT -5
500 major league plate appearances is much smaller of a sample than you're making it out to be. I know it's not the biggest sample, but the data we do have is compelling. In the past ten years, only four players have managed to put up a lower wRC+ in 400 or more PAs than the mark Bradley posted in '14. And if you look at the names around him on that leaderboard, none of those guys got there by accident. You've gotta scroll pretty far to find anyone who had brighter days ahead of them.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 7, 2014 1:34:04 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points, I know, but from 6/29 to 7/21 Bradley slashed .375/.434/.458 5BB/10K in 53 AB's. Of course it's unfair to take anything out of such a small sample, especially when everything around it was so terrible, but Bradley has had success in small stretches. I know Eric did some sort of study earlier this year (when looking into Ramos' career) that outlined how some players with a great variance of hot and cold streaks did. Precedent should take notice over wild speculation, but Bradley simply doesn't belong on that list IMO. He was clearly rushed to the ML league level which resulted in really, really bad habits. It looked so obvious to the point where clear changes in his stance, follow through, and swing were outlined on Sunday Night Baseball. Simply put, I think that extended time in AAA (probably the entire season) can do good things for Bradley. What the 2014 season tells me is that, rather than simply writing JBJ off, we need to severely temper what we previously perceived his ceiling to be. He won't be that .270/.350/.400 hitter we all hoped for. But can I see him averaging around .250/.320/.370 over the next couple of seasons? Sure.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 7, 2014 22:43:32 GMT -5
From my "JBJ's bat coming around..." comment above, I could definitely see .270/.350/400
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2014 7:51:12 GMT -5
The question is, what happens to good minor league hitters who had rookie seasons comparable to JBJ's?
I looked for all rookies aged 23-25 who had 350 or more PA and had an OPS+ of 60 or less. (JBJ was 24 and had a 50 OPS+ in 423 PA).
I went back only to 1970 because baseball has changed significantly since then, and because that's where B-Ref's minor league stats start to get incomplete.
There were 19 guys (including JBJ) who ft that criterion, but only six or seven others who could be called good minor league hitters. I'll list them here, together with their rookie TAv, and the TAv they put up in the five years after their rookie season (with an occasional comment). And maybe I'll come back and take a closer look.
What we're looking for from JBJ to be a starting MLB CF is a .230 TAv. .245 would make him a good player (close to 3.0 WAR); .260, which is MLB average by definition, a borderline All-Star.
Brady Anderson, 24, CF, 1988. .212 / .277 TAv (the infamous 50 HR season was in his 9th year, BTW). Dave McCarty, 23, 1B, 1993. .192 / .231, but spent his entire career as a bench player; .241 in seasons (mostly later) where he got 100 PA or more. Rich Becker, 23, CF, 1995. .215 / .265. Deivi Cruz, 24, SS, 1997. Don't actually think he was a good ml hitter, but included him to be safe. .209 / .236. Jack Wilson, 23, SS, 2001. .205 / .244. Chris Snyder, 24, C, 2005. .214 / .266. Michael Bourn, 25, CF, 2008. .211 / .264. Jackie Bradley, Jr., 24, CF, 2014. .198 / ? (.206 in his career so far).
Cruz put up good numbers at age 23 -- but in low-A. He was jumped straight to MLB because of his glove, and predictably never hit a lick.
McCarty was shuffled between MLB, where he was never given a chance to play, and AAA, where he kept putting up huge numbers. That would never happen today.
That leaves us with one guy at .244, three guys at .264 to .266, and one guy who maybe had a little extra help to get to .277.
It's very easy to say that if these comps mean anything at all (and maybe they don't), that JBJ should recover and be an average hitter for an MLB starting CF (.265), which combined with his glove would pretty much make him a close to 4.0 WAR player. Maybe he falls a bit short of that because his rookie season was a bit worse, but he may have been, along with Anderson, the best ml hitter of the bunch. The message seems to be that there's no reason to think his chances of being a solid MLB bat, and hence a first-division starter, have been eliminated.
To my mind, a big story for 2015 will be Hanley, Castillo, and JBJ competing for two spots in the 2016-2018 / 2019 OF. If Hanley can really play LF, then you have a good chance of having either JBJ or Castillo as a great trade chip next winter (along with either Swihart or Vazquez, and hopefully some pitching). If Hanley's future is at DH or 1B, then you may end up with an OF of Castillo and Betts flanking JBJ, and catching many baseballs. With Napoli in his walk year, it would probably make sense to take a look at Hanley at 1B before next winter -- even if only in IF practice.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 14, 2014 8:48:51 GMT -5
Rick Miller is not a close comparandum, but has some similarities. Good hitter in college at Michigan State (led Big Ten in BA), great defensive cf who could play all three slots, modest size, 6', 175. Decent stats in minors including lots of walks and a tiny bit of pop (.250. 383.401 in three years AA-AAA). After a great cup of coffee in Sept 71, in 1972 at age hit .214.291.367.658 in 111 PA for OPS+91; often came in late in games for D Hit a little better, with good obp, while playing close to full-time the next two years .261 .342 .363 .705 96OPS+ Then in 1975 sat on the bench and had an OPS+ of 55Played 15 years at .269. 346.350.696, won one GG with Angels; also married Fisk's sister His D was a little like JBJ's in that it involved a lot of anticipation sabr.org/bioproj/person/657ca6e9"Miller said of his ability to play well in Fenway Park’s tough center field: “I got great jumps, I knew how to play players, I would cheat, I knew the counts, I always moved on each pitch according to the count. “Thurman Munson just hated me, because I would play him perfect. I took more hits away from him. He’d be all over me from the catcher’s position when I came up to bat. I’d just step out and say ‘Are you done yet?’”" I also remember he was much more aggressive in calling for balls than Lynn, so there was always a chance for a collision in RCF or LCF with Rice or Evans who outweighed him by 30-40 lbs. My father remembered how well he had hit in college and always wondered why he didn't hit more as a pro.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 14, 2014 9:15:00 GMT -5
Rick Miller is not a close comparandum, but has some similarities. Good hitter in college at Michigan State (led Big Ten in BA), great defensive cf who could play all three slots, modest size, 6', 175. Decent stats in minors including lots of walks and a tiny bit of pop (.250. 383.401 in three years AA-AAA). After a great cup of coffee in Sept 71, in 1972 at age hit .214.291.367.658 in 111 PA for OPS+91; often came in late in games for D Hit a little better, with good obp, while playing close to full-time the next two years .261 .342 .363 .705 96OPS+ Then in 1975 sat on the bench and had an OPS+ of 55Played 15 years at .269. 346.350.696, won one GG with Angels; also married Fisk's sister His D was a little like JBJ's in that it involved a lot of anticipation sabr.org/bioproj/person/657ca6e9"Miller said of his ability to play well in Fenway Park’s tough center field: “I got great jumps, I knew how to play players, I would cheat, I knew the counts, I always moved on each pitch according to the count. “Thurman Munson just hated me, because I would play him perfect. I took more hits away from him. He’d be all over me from the catcher’s position when I came up to bat. I’d just step out and say ‘Are you done yet?’”" I also remember he was much more aggressive in calling for balls than Lynn, so there was always a chance for a collision in RCF or LCF with Rice or Evans who outweighed him by 30-40 lbs. My father remembered how well he had hit in college and always wondered why he didn't hit more as a pro. My recall is that Miller had similarities with Bradley as you outline. Neither was a speed-burner per se but got to a lot of balls that for others would drop. Miller did not have anywhere near Bradley's arm and Bradley appears more graceful and athletic in the field. Bradley has more inherent power than Miller did but Miller was much more a "contact" guy who did not seem to have the holes in his swing Bradley has evidenced. Of course Bradley will close those at least to a degree over time. There seemed to be something of a parallel with Bradley and X at the plate. Both exhibited exceptionally good plate discipline initially then, as their averages dropped, began to commit earlier and jump at balls out of the zone. X got better again as his results improved late in the year. I suspect, based on his minor league record, that Bradley will make a dramatic plate improvement over the next several years.
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