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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
danr
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Post by danr on Dec 14, 2014 12:33:37 GMT -5
I think the Sox rushed Bradley too fast. It happened mostly because of his enormous ST performance in 2013, which forced the Sox to keep him, rather than send him to Pawtucket. Most of us thought the guy was going to be a superstar. It became obvious fairly quickly that he wasn't ready.
He had only two full minor league seasons. He needed more. And then he did something with his swing and he couldn't even hit at Pawtucket. If he can get back to where he was before all this happened, there is no reason why he can't be a major league regular.
I don't think he is going to be a superstar with the bat, but he sure is with the glove. If Napoli moves on, and if the Sox don't acquire another 1B, or get one from the minors, then either Sandoval or Ramirez might move to 1B. That would be the opening for Bradley.
Interestingly, Bogaerts pretty much moved on the same schedule at Bradley, and he has had a tough time adjusting to major league pitching as well - but not nearly as hard a time as Bradley has had.
In retrospect, both might have benefited from an extra full season in the minors.
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Post by suttree on Dec 14, 2014 12:56:40 GMT -5
None of the rosy comps mean much, because JBJ strikes out at a 29% clip. In Brady Anderson's worst year he struck out at a 20% rate. The difference between JBJ and every other name that has been brought up, is that JBJ makes very little contact, even though he hits for little to no power.
If you really think about it, the number of players who couldn't translate minor league success to the big leagues is in the thousands. Reaching for one or two guys that might bare a passing similarity to JBJ is a huge stretch.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Dec 14, 2014 13:05:17 GMT -5
I think the Sox rushed Bradley too fast. It happened mostly because of his enormous ST performance in 2013, which forced the Sox to keep him, rather than send him to Pawtucket. Most of us thought the guy was going to be a superstar. It became obvious fairly quickly that he wasn't ready. He had only two full minor league seasons. He needed more. And then he did something with his swing and he couldn't even hit at Pawtucket. If he can get back to where he was before all this happened, there is no reason why he can't be a major league regular. I don't think he is going to be a superstar with the bat, but he sure is with the glove. If Napoli moves on, and if the Sox don't acquire another 1B, or get one from the minors, then either Sandoval or Ramirez might move to 1B. That would be the opening for Bradley. Interestingly, Bogaerts pretty much moved on the same schedule at Bradley, and he has had a tough time adjusting to major league pitching as well - but not nearly as hard a time as Bradley has had. In retrospect, both might have benefited from an extra full season in the minors. I disagree that Bogaerts would have benefited from extra AAA time. He was great in the 2013 postseason and came out in 2014 looking like a Rookie of the Year candidate. By mid-season, he was exposed by MLB pitching, specifically breaking balls, that he wouldn't have seen at the AAA level. He had to get to the majors in order to struggle and the adjustments that he had to make are how he will blossom into the star we expect him to be.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 14, 2014 14:36:30 GMT -5
What are you talking about? Bradley sucked from the get go in 2013. Unless you think opening day is midseason, you couldn't be further off base.... Sorry, just look it up.
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Post by jmei on Dec 14, 2014 16:55:36 GMT -5
None of the rosy comps mean much, because JBJ strikes out at a 29% clip. In Brady Anderson's worst year he struck out at a 20% rate. The difference between JBJ and every other name that has been brought up, is that JBJ makes very little contact, even though he hits for little to no power. If you really think about it, the number of players who couldn't translate minor league success to the big leagues is in the thousands. Reaching for one or two guys that might bare a passing similarity to JBJ is a huge stretch. The two situations are more comparable than you're suggesting. The league-average strikeout rate has increased precipitously since Brady Anderson's rookie year, as the number of power arms (especially in the bullpen) is unparalleled in league history and the style of the game has changed to emphasize the three true outcomes. Anderson's strikeout rate in his rookie year (20.6%) was 136% of the league-average strikeout rate in 1988 (14.7%). Bradley's strikeout rate (28.6%) is 140% of the league-average strikeout rate in 2014 (20.4%). I agree with your broader point that historical comps aren't hugely useful. But even ignoring them, it's almost certain that he improves his hitting somewhat, and he doesn't have to improve much to be a useful major-league player. Guys with career .289/.394/.456 minor-league lines don't just become Mendoza-line hitters in the majors overnight. If he even improves a little on the margins, he'll at least be a fine Peter Bourjos-esque 4th outfielder.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Dec 14, 2014 16:56:56 GMT -5
What are you talking about? Bradley sucked from the get go in 2013. Unless you think opening day is midseason, you couldn't be further off base.... Sorry, just look it up. if you're referencing my post, I was talking about Bogaerts.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 14, 2014 17:13:34 GMT -5
500 major league plate appearances is much smaller of a sample than you're making it out to be. Especially when it's spread over two seasons.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2014 18:48:03 GMT -5
If you really think about it, the number of players who couldn't translate minor league success to the big leagues is in the thousands. Reaching for one or two guys that might bare a passing similarity to JBJ is a huge stretch. The number of players who had excellent minor league success and then had rookie seasons comparable to JBJ and didn't go onto have productive MLB careers as a starter is 1 (McCarty), and that was probably due to his not being given the chance. There are 5 guys who did. The key here is that a player has to be talented enough to get 350 PA or more in that awful rookie season. That's rare, and it is driven almost entirely by internal scouting opinions: let's keep giving this guy a chance, we have confidence he can turn it around at some point. Each of the 5 players who were given an opportunity in succeeding years did precisely that, most of them the very next year.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Dec 14, 2014 20:38:42 GMT -5
If you really think about it, the number of players who couldn't translate minor league success to the big leagues is in the thousands. Reaching for one or two guys that might bare a passing similarity to JBJ is a huge stretch. The number of players who had excellent minor league success and then had rookie seasons comparable to JBJ and didn't go onto have productive MLB careers as a starter is 1 (McCarty), and that was probably due to his not being given the chance. There are 5 guys who did. The key here is that a player has to be talented enough to get 350 PA or more in that awful rookie season. That's rare, and it is driven almost entirely by internal scouting opinions: let's keep giving this guy a chance, we have confidence he can turn it around at some point. Each of the 5 players who were given an opportunity in succeeding years did precisely that, most of them the very next year. Was Bradley's getting 350 PA "driven almost entirely by internal scouting opinions", or did it happen partly because his team had a pitiful pitiiful offensive performance, and their other options for CF had hitting and/or health problems?
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Post by suttree on Dec 14, 2014 20:50:31 GMT -5
None of the rosy comps mean much, because JBJ strikes out at a 29% clip. In Brady Anderson's worst year he struck out at a 20% rate. The difference between JBJ and every other name that has been brought up, is that JBJ makes very little contact, even though he hits for little to no power. If you really think about it, the number of players who couldn't translate minor league success to the big leagues is in the thousands. Reaching for one or two guys that might bare a passing similarity to JBJ is a huge stretch. The two situations are more comparable than you're suggesting. The league-average strikeout rate has increased precipitously since Brady Anderson's rookie year, as the number of power arms (especially in the bullpen) is unparalleled in league history and the style of the game has changed to emphasize the three true outcomes. Anderson's strikeout rate in his rookie year (20.6%) was 136% of the league-average strikeout rate in 1988 (14.7%). Bradley's strikeout rate (28.6%) is 140% of the league-average strikeout rate in 2014 (20.4%). I agree with your broader point that historical comps aren't hugely useful. But even ignoring them, it's almost certain that he improves his hitting somewhat, and he doesn't have to improve much to be a useful major-league player. Guys with career .289/.394/.456 minor-league lines don't just become Mendoza-line hitters in the majors overnight. If he even improves a little on the margins, he'll at least be a fine Peter Bourjos-esque 4th outfielder. I see your point. Using percentages is likely misleading though. Standard Deviations would give a better sense of how much 29% is an outlier, and my gut says it's a bigger outlier.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2015 1:13:46 GMT -5
Bradley has in the midst of his third stretch of regular OF play for the Sox; he started 6 straight games from 6/25 to 6/30, and 3 straight from July 29 to July 31.
He now has 23 G and 75 PA as an MLB regular this year, after fixing his swing, and has hit .238 / .333 / .413.
The average MLB CF this year has hit .265 / .326 / .403.
Now, the joker in this deck, of course, is that it's .179 / .276 / .213 in his first 19 G and 58 PA, and .500 / .529 / 1.000 in his last 4 G and 17 PA. But if anything, that would suggest that the .333 / .413 line is likelier to rise than fall the rest of the way.
I've been pointing out since last winter that if he can hit halfway between replacement level and average, that makes him a first-division starter. Given his whole ml career (excepting last year) and his AAA performance this year, its' now perfectly reasonable to think that he can be an average hitting MLB CF, any maybe even a bit better. And that's a borderline All-Star; it makes him better than this year's Joc Pederson, and would rank him 7th among MLB CFers.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 15, 2015 10:08:02 GMT -5
Bradley has in the midst of his third stretch of regular OF play for the Sox; he started 6 straight games from 6/25 to 6/30, and 3 straight from July 29 to July 31. He now has 23 G and 75 PA as an MLB regular this year, after fixing his swing, and has hit .238 / .333 / .413.The average MLB CF this year has hit .265 / .326 / .403. Now, the joker in this deck, of course, is that it's .179 / .276 / .213 in his first 19 G and 58 PA, and .500 / .529 / 1.000 in his last 4 G and 17 PA. But if anything, that would suggest that the .333 / .413 line is likelier to rise than fall the rest of the way. I've been pointing out since last winter that if he can hit halfway between replacement level and average, that makes him a first-division starter. Given his whole ml career (excepting last year) and his AAA performance this year, its' now perfectly reasonable to think that he can be an average hitting MLB CF, any maybe even a bit better. And that's a borderline All-Star; it makes him better than this year's Joc Pederson, and would rank him 7th among MLB CFers. The point is that both his abysmal and heroic splits are based on sample sizes small enough to render them inconsequential when a larger sample takes hold. JBJ could easily play at least 40 more games before the season is out, which would be almost twice what he has already played, both abominably and heroically. I was wondering if his first good game lifted a weight off his shoulders and maybe he'd take off. Let's not judge 4 games when we can witness 40 more in the next month and a half. To me the appeal of JBJ is that he might be SO good defensively that he can be a star almost no matter what he hits. He might draw a few extra fans into the ballpark on the road just on the off chance that they might see something unfrickenbelievable in the OF. And as bad as the Sox have been as a team, it might make a bit of difference in bodies in the seats at home as well.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 15, 2015 13:08:18 GMT -5
Suddenly, JBJ is red hot. 5th XBH in last 4+ games.
Since his 7/29 recall (incl. 1st PA today):
12/45, 23TB, 12/7 K/BB, 267/370/511/881
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 15, 2015 13:17:54 GMT -5
Suddenly, JBJ is red hot. 5th XBH in last 4+ games. Since his 7/29 recall (incl. 1st PA today): 12/45, 23TB, 12/7 K/BB, 267/370/511/881 That slugging is out of range, but aside from that the numbers are typical of what he's done in the minors.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 15, 2015 14:46:34 GMT -5
Been saying forever that Bradley should be at worst a .250 hitter in the majors with an on base % around .350. We are finally starting to see that yes he can hit major league pitching. The next 40 games are huge for him to try and cement his spot in the outfield for next year. Same goes for Castillo.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 15, 2015 14:48:08 GMT -5
Does the bat outweigh the glove?
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 15, 2015 14:59:37 GMT -5
I find what Bradley has done offensively over his past 7-10 games fascinating, not to mention exciting. i have no clue if JBJ is just ridiculously hot right now as an opposite extreme to his production the rest of the season, or if this is the result of mechanical adjustments, changes to his approach or simply a matter of things starting to click for Bradley. Regardless, if Bradley is on the verge of becoming the big league player that his amateur and minor league pedigree suggested he would be, it is going to be one of the most extreme examples of how a players development can't really be rushed. Here's hoping this is the real beginning of Bradley's MLB career.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 15, 2015 15:10:12 GMT -5
They fixed his swing
“@scottlauber: AL scout on difference in Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s swing this season: ”Shorter, more direct, level. All the proper stuff. None of the bad stuff“”
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 15, 2015 15:12:42 GMT -5
They fixed his swing “@scottlauber: AL scout on difference in Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s swing this season: ”Shorter, more direct, level. All the proper stuff. None of the bad stuff“” Yeah, pretty much everyone on this site (not me, I didn't get to see but 1 or 2 Pawtucket games) said the same thing. Completely different swing this year. Looked like two completely different people when comparing this years JBJ to last years.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,838
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 15, 2015 15:28:39 GMT -5
What has entirely amazed me about Jackie's last year plus in the majors was the strikeouts. He was never that "type" of hitter. When he puts his bat on the ball, of course, he is a different hitter. What is transpiring currently is Jackie Bradley Jr. is putting the ball in play. By no means is he this good, but he has always been a solid hitter. It has shocked me tremendously from watching him in Columbia, SC at the university thru the system to Boston what has happened last year. That was not Jackie last year! Certainly he will not stay this hot, but he can be a very decent and above average centerfielder for us for a number of years. If he and Castillo can establish themselves over the next 7 weeks, our priorities will be easier to handle. Lets hope!
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 15, 2015 15:32:15 GMT -5
I was going to say, get JBJ up there for a chance at the cycle, then I realized he has 3 doubles and a homer.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Aug 15, 2015 15:40:23 GMT -5
American League Player of the week?
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Post by The Duck on Aug 15, 2015 15:50:46 GMT -5
Has anyone ever had a 5 hit game without a single before?
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Post by azblue on Aug 15, 2015 15:57:22 GMT -5
14 total bases...decent game. Most for a Sox player since Fred Lynn's big game in Detroit when he hit 3 home runs and hit a ball high off the wall for a triple (in his last AB?).
Correction
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2015 16:19:16 GMT -5
Bradley has in the midst of his third stretch of regular OF play for the Sox; he started 6 straight games from 6/25 to 6/30, and 3 straight from July 29 to July 31. He now has 23 G and 75 PA as an MLB regular this year, after fixing his swing, and has hit .238 / .333 / .413.The average MLB CF this year has hit .265 / .326 / .403. Now, the joker in this deck, of course, is that it's .179 / .276 / .213 in his first 19 G and 58 PA, and .500 / .529 / 1.000 in his last 4 G and 17 PA. But if anything, that would suggest that the .333 / .413 line is likelier to rise than fall the rest of the way. I've been pointing out since last winter that if he can hit halfway between replacement level and average, that makes him a first-division starter. Given his whole ml career (excepting last year) and his AAA performance this year, its' now perfectly reasonable to think that he can be an average hitting MLB CF, any maybe even a bit better. And that's a borderline All-Star; it makes him better than this year's Joc Pederson, and would rank him 7th among MLB CFers. The point is that both his abysmal and heroic splits are based on sample sizes small enough to render them inconsequential when a larger sample takes hold. JBJ could easily play at least 40 more games before the season is out, which would be almost twice what he has already played, both abominably and heroically. I was wondering if his first good game lifted a weight off his shoulders and maybe he'd take off. Let's not judge 4 games when we can witness 40 more in the next month and a half. To me the appeal of JBJ is that he might be SO good defensively that he can be a star almost no matter what he hits. He might draw a few extra fans into the ballpark on the road just on the off chance that they might see something unfrickenbelievable in the OF. And as bad as the Sox have been as a team, it might make a bit of difference in bodies in the seats at home as well. I was going to say that the point of my post was merely that the very small MLB sample this year as a regular was nothing that would give you any kind of pause given the large sample in AAA this year (where he was 2nd all of AAA in wRC+ by players 25 and under) and the even larger sample of his ml career excepting last year when his swing was broken. If he'd been blocked at the MLB level the whole time until last year, and his regular play was this year was his first MLB exposure, the whole "JBJ can't hit MLB pitching" meme wouldn't have even started. On the other hand HR, 2B, 2B, 2B, HR will make a pretty good argument as well. (Which I just discovered -- I was out running errands all day.)
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