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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 15, 2015 16:25:40 GMT -5
American League Player of the week? I think given his two spectacular catches, and 3 HR, and a ton of XBH, there's no way he won't win it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2015 16:49:04 GMT -5
14 total bases...decent game. Most for a Sox player since Fred Lynn's big game in Detroit when he hit 3 home runs and hit a ball high off the wall for a triple (in his last AB?). Correction Pedroia had 15 (3 HR, 2B, 1B) versus the Rockies on 6/24/10, the day before he hurt himself. And WMB had 14 (3 HR, 2B) versus the Blue Jays on 4/7/13. Now, players in MLB history with 5H, 14 TB and involvement in 10 runs scored (R + RBI - HR): Walker Cooper, 7/6/49, 3 HR, 3 1B, 5 R, 10 RBI Ralph Kiner, 6/25/50, cycle plus HR, 4 R, 8 RBI Gil Hodges, 8/31/50, 4 HR, 1B, 5 R, 9 RBI Fred Lynn, 6/18/75 3 HR, 3B, 1B, 4 R, 10 RBI JBJ Players in MLB history with 5 XBH, 14 TB, and scoring or knocking in 10 different runs or more: JBJ
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 15, 2015 17:03:30 GMT -5
Hopefully the leave him in the ninth spot, considering how the Sox have handled him and his career path why mess with anything when he's going so well? I'm confident we are starting to see the confidence he's displayed his whole minor league career and see him becoming our regular CF for years to come. He has a fantastic knowledge and command of the strike zone as the large difference between his BA and OBP throughout the minors indicates. His make-up suggest he'd be a good candidate to bat lead-off next season and he has about 6-7 weeks to stake that claim. His bat and glove will force the Sox to play him in the outfield next year. I think most of us here would love to see Castillo (LF) JBJ (CF) and Betts (RF) patrol the outfield next year. What will they do with Hanley? He's F'ing everything up for next year. I doubt he can play first but they will have to try it, the other possiblity is a long shot, trading Pedey and moving Betts back to second. What to do with Hanley is going to dominate off-season discussions.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 15, 2015 17:05:07 GMT -5
Has anyone ever had a 5 hit game without a single before? Think Shawn green had 4hr and a 2b once.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 15, 2015 17:07:46 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Key to JBJ’s huge week? According to asst hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, it may be elimination of slight leg kick that slowed his swing”
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 15, 2015 17:48:28 GMT -5
Learning Curve(s) Here's a quick and dirty chart of his season and the changes that have taken place, probably for a variety of reasons. The reworked (relocated) swing, the eliminated leg kick, the experience he's accrued.. likely all of it has resulted in these trends (click to enlarge): The rise in his OPS is directly mirrored in the changes to his BABIP. This has been anticipated. Most players will show variation around what is assumed to be their "true" batting average for balls in play. That average is around .300 for ML players, though some players fluctuate around a higher number, some around a lower value. One thing is for certain, he wasn't going to stay at a BABIP of .150 forever. The other takeaway is that his K rate has been steadily dropping and is now at 24% for the year, a much better number. If I were to pick one place where the changes are most evident, even more so than the soaring OPS, it's this. What's really rewarding for those of us who care about such things is that his isolated discipline, the difference between his OBP and his average, has stayed just about flat even through the early period when the hits weren't falling. He's always had value because of that skill. You can't score unless you can get on base. Now that he's started pounding the baseball, he can fall back on that as the pitchers try to finesse him, which is probably what comes next. This, this guy, is a perfect example of why many of us preach patience and we hold back on the disdain. It's baseball and it's dynamic. It changes day-to-day. Bradley sure has.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2015 18:09:10 GMT -5
I want to point out that when a guy goes this crazy, it's often because the book on him is not just out of date, but dysfunctionally so. They're pitching to what are supposed to be weaknesses which have in fact become, to at least some degree, strengths. They will figure out how to pitch to him fairly soon, and then we'll see just how good a hitter he is.
However, all the evidence I can see says he's going to be a first-division starter, probably a borderline All-Star, and possibly even better than that. I'm very glad they've been patient with him, and I would like to think that they knew they had to give him an MLB chance this year, once the season became a lost cause but before injuries gave him an opportunity.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 15, 2015 18:11:30 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Key to JBJ’s huge week? According to asst hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, it may be elimination of slight leg kick that slowed his swing” I completely buy this. His lower half is radically better than it used to be. I haven't had a chance to watch any games in the last few weeks, so I haven't seen his new swing, but it's much better. I've been skeptical of his swing because he got his front foot down late (after a toe tap) and rotated his hips back before he swung them forward. Left him late and slow on everything. It lasted long enough that I started to suspect he couldn't generate enough hip torque without the pronounced backward rotation first. But now he's down on time and straight to the ball, all momentum going forward, and he can clearly generate enough bat speed doing that. It's so much better and makes me really optimistic about him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 15, 2015 18:48:32 GMT -5
I want to point out that when a guy goes this crazy, it's often because the book on him is not just out of date, but dysfunctionally so. They're pitching to what are supposed to be weaknesses which have in fact become, to at least some degree, strengths. They will figure out how to pitch to him fairly soon, and then we'll see just how good a hitter he is. However, all the evidence I can see says he's going to be a first-division starter, probably a borderline All-Star, and possibly even better than that. I'm very glad they've been patient with him, and I would like to think that they knew they had to give him an MLB chance this year, once the season became a lost cause but before injuries gave him an opportunity. Upon arrival and in subsequent returns not only did Bradley often appear late to the ball and committing early...probably necessarily....but having great difficulty with inside strikes. I thought that this last time he initially still had trouble clearing out the inside corner pitch. Suddenly he has been driving it. That is the biggest difference I see from a result standpoint. As to cause & effect, a poster referenced the elimination of a leg kick as increasing bat speed or reaction time. Others have said a change in stance, hand/arm position or swing plane are responsible factors. Perhaps also he is pulling his hands/arms in closer to get barrel contact. I noticed on the fist homerun to center on a pitch on the inner half that he got good carry even though his arms were not able to get fully extended. Whatever the prescription, it has sent what appeared to be a metastases into remission. Certainly the game is always one of adjustment but boy what a pleasure to see a young guy struggling in the deep end to so quickly re-surface. He has gone from a tradable dreg on this board to a definite keeper and potential all-star in a blink.
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Post by arzjake on Aug 15, 2015 20:28:01 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Key to JBJ’s huge week? According to asst hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, it may be elimination of slight leg kick that slowed his swing” [br What a simple adjustment can do...
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 15, 2015 22:17:01 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Key to JBJ’s huge week? According to asst hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, it may be elimination of slight leg kick that slowed his swing” I completely buy this. His lower half is radically better than it used to be. I haven't had a chance to watch any games in the last few weeks, so I haven't seen his new swing, but it's much better. I've been skeptical of his swing because he got his front foot down late (after a toe tap) and rotated his hips back before he swung them forward. Left him late and slow on everything. It lasted long enough that I started to suspect he couldn't generate enough hip torque without the pronounced backward rotation first. But now he's down on time and straight to the ball, all momentum going forward, and he can clearly generate enough bat speed doing that. It's so much better and makes me really optimistic about him. The only thing you left out was how much his hands were moving before he started swinging. His hands are now still when he pulls the trigger.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 15, 2015 22:59:35 GMT -5
Realistically, what do people think he's capable of at the MLB level? Can he recreate his minor league line? Because if we're talking about the best defensive CF in the game hitting .290/.380/.460 or so with 30-35 2b and 15-20 HR, that's a multiple-repeat All-Star, especially in today's game. Even at 25-26, he's probably still got five solid years in CF, maybe more given that he's much more reliant on superb routes over speed to get to balls. He's also obviously got the arm to continue on as the best defensive RF in baseball indefinitely after that, at least until his bat no longer plays there.
I think Eric makes a good point on the next round of adjustments, so I'm wary of getting too excited. But he is quite obviously a vastly different hitter. I get the sense that he'll probably settle in around .275/.360/.425, but I'll admit I would take the over on that bet for his prime years of 26-29. Betts-Bradley-Castillo represents a potentially terrific defensive OF, and possibly a very, very good offensive one as well.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 15, 2015 23:26:40 GMT -5
I have said all along, it takes about 800 at bats in the majors to become comfortable, superstars like trout and Harper excluded,
Bradley had the huge disadvantage of not being able to hit inside pitching, he worked hard in the offseason to cure it. Not sure if he has, but in the last week he had turned on quite a few pitches and now pitchers are adjusting by throwing away and he can murder that stuff all day. It is a game of adjustments so we see how the pitchers respond.
Ps: I think it takes 35 starts for a pitcher to get comfortable. I can not wait until Rodriguez gets settled. Provided he stops tipping. Same for Owens and Johnson.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2015 1:57:37 GMT -5
Realistically, what do people think he's capable of at the MLB level? Can he recreate his minor league line? Because if we're talking about the best defensive CF in the game hitting .290/.380/.460 or so with 30-35 2b and 15-20 HR, that's a multiple-repeat All-Star, especially in today's game. Even at 25-26, he's probably still got five solid years in CF, maybe more given that he's much more reliant on superb routes over speed to get to balls. He's also obviously got the arm to continue on as the best defensive RF in baseball indefinitely after that, at least until his bat no longer plays there. I think Eric makes a good point on the next round of adjustments, so I'm wary of getting too excited. But he is quite obviously a vastly different hitter. I get the sense that he'll probably settle in around .275/.360/.425, but I'll admit I would take the over on that bet for his prime years of 26-29. Betts-Bradley-Castillo represents a potentially terrific defensive OF, and possibly a very, very good offensive one as well. Davenport Peak Projections based on each of his four seasons, combining play at all levels: .298 / .405 / .465 .259 / .353 / .460 .209 / .279 / .283 .285 / .368 / .475 going into yesterday; I'll update this when I get up tomorrow and combine the result, weighted, with 2013.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2015 7:42:50 GMT -5
I certainly didn't see JBJ breaking out like THIS!
I could see that he was hitting well in Pawtucket and he looks like a guy who should be able to hit .270 or .280 in the majors with his fair share or walks or more, and with a little bit of pop, say 15 homers per year. Add incredible defense and you have an asset, particularly one capable of batting in the #1 or #2 slot rather than stuck down at the #9 spot. Assuming that Brock Holt isn't playing every day in 2016, it's helpful to have a lefty toward the top of the order so they're not stacking all righties toward the top (Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts), and all the lefties don't get stuffed at the bottom (Sandoval, Swihart - if he starts, and Bradley).
I was about ready to give up on Bradley wondering why his AAA numbers can't translate to his major league numbers, but his hot week has me changing my thoughts.
Not only could he be somebody that could be a reliable #1 or #2 type offensive player, but his presence could also fix the defense - as it impacts Hanley, and it would also very much make Manuel Margot available in a trade for a young starter.
When thinking of the future outfield it was Betts, Margot, and Benintendi, but if Bradley is a very viable option, then you have Betts, Bradley, and Benintendi (with Castillo either dealt at that point) or hanging around for depth.
The potential breakout of Bradley is a very big deal for the Sox and regardless if the Sox play .500 ball or .400 ball the rest of the way, is an extremely positive event.
These are my thoughts running wild because a few weeks from now he could cool off and eventually sport a line where he's still in the low .200s, and I haven't gone all crazy about Travis Shaw sporting multiple multiple-home run games and penciled him in as a starter at 1b/3b possibility.
The difference being that Shaw's minor league numbers aren't that inspiring, making me think that he's currently playing over his head and would struggle mightily if given a regular job but if Bradley looks as good as Shaw has looked, I would know, that his defense will be an asset, and he, given his minor league track record, would be more likely to sustain his offense.
And like I said, that makes Margot prime trade bait without disrupting the core of "The next great Red Sox team".
And Bradley's presence might push Hanley to 1b or pehaps even 3b if the Sox can deal Sandoval (perhaps to SD for Shields) or more likely Hanley has to play 1b, meaning the Sox can concentrate all their $ on an elite starter and not have to worry about paying Byung-Ho Park any money, or they could simply keep Ramirez in LF (shudder), and figure that between injuries (given Hanley and Castillo's track record), that they have the outfield depth nailed down (particulary with Holt's presence), and they could concentrate on keeping Holt at 3b if need be, again allowing Sandoval to be dumped if possible.
Like I said, this development could open up a world of options.
Again, this is my excitement talking - let's see how Bradley performs the rest of the way and see if the excitement should be real.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 16, 2015 7:53:20 GMT -5
Next step IMO for JBJ now is to cut down those Ks, from what I've seen, it always comes when he's down to 2 strikes and he gets fooled (swinging strike of the blocked variety) at a pitch in the dirt...If he makes the adjustment on his approach with 2 strikes and gets the k% under 20%, he'll be very very good.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 8:53:46 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Key to JBJ’s huge week? According to asst hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, it may be elimination of slight leg kick that slowed his swing” No kidding. I harped on this last year. He had too many moving parts including that leg kick.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2015 9:13:26 GMT -5
Next step IMO for JBJ now is to cut down those Ks, from what I've seen, it always comes when he's down to 2 strikes and he gets fooled (swinging strike of the blocked variety) at a pitch in the dirt...If he makes the adjustment on his approach with 2 strikes and gets the k% under 20%, he'll be very very good. This is a good thought, but outdated. In today's game the danger bar is 25%, not 20%. MLB hitters with 250 PA this year or more: Players with K% > 20%: 108 wRC+ (weighted by each player's PA, natch) Players with K% < 20%: 104 wRC+ Furthermore, this subdivides into: 25% or greater: 101 wRC+ >=20%, < 25%: 118 wRC+ <20%: 104 wRC+ At 350 PA minimum, it's 110 (101 versus 120) versus 106. Strikeouts are only an issue if a hitters isn't good. For good hitters, they actually correlate with power hitting. JBJ has been 23.5% ths year as a regular, and 21.7% during his 5-game assault. It's not unusual at all for a guy with a SA in the .450 to .500 range.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 16, 2015 10:18:37 GMT -5
Realistically, what do people think he's capable of at the MLB level? Can he recreate his minor league line? Because if we're talking about the best defensive CF in the game hitting .290/.380/.460 or so with 30-35 2b and 15-20 HR, that's a multiple-repeat All-Star, especially in today's game. Even at 25-26, he's probably still got five solid years in CF, maybe more given that he's much more reliant on superb routes over speed to get to balls. He's also obviously got the arm to continue on as the best defensive RF in baseball indefinitely after that, at least until his bat no longer plays there. I think Eric makes a good point on the next round of adjustments, so I'm wary of getting too excited. But he is quite obviously a vastly different hitter. I get the sense that he'll probably settle in around .275/.360/.425, but I'll admit I would take the over on that bet for his prime years of 26-29. Betts-Bradley-Castillo represents a potentially terrific defensive OF, and possibly a very, very good offensive one as well. If Bradley can produce a line of .290/.380/.460 with 30-35 2b, and 15-20 HRs, he isn't just a multiple-repeat All-Star he is a top 5 outfielder in the game who will likely produce 5+ WAR a year if he is playing CF. I highly doubt he is that good, not saying that he doesn't have the ability to do that once or twice in his career, he showed throughout the minors they he could hit. Just trying to keep expectations in check.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2015 20:31:27 GMT -5
Davenport Peak Projections based on each of his four seasons, combining play at all levels: .298 / .405 / .465 .259 / .353 / .460 .209 / .279 / .283 .285 / .368 / .475 going into yesterday; I'll update this when I get up tomorrow and combine the result, weighted, with 2013. If Bradley can produce a line of .290/.380/.460 with 30-35 2b, and 15-20 HRs, he isn't just a multiple-repeat All-Star he is a top 5 outfielder in the game who will likely produce 5+ WAR a year if he is playing CF. I highly doubt he is that good, not saying that he doesn't have the ability to do that once or twice in his career, he showed throughout the minors they he could hit. Just trying to keep expectations in check. Going into today, .298 / .405 / .465 (.304 EqA / TAv) .259 / .353 / .460 (.274) .209 / .279 / .283 (.204) .295 / .375 / .508 (.294) Combining 2015 and 2013 (weighted 5:4) gives you .279 / .366 / .487, with a .285 TAv. The BA and OBP are telson's realistic guess plus .004 / .006, but the SA is much higher. As a talent, the guy Bradley resembles, if these projections are for real, is A.J. Pollock, with an even better glove, and a similar bat except for more strikeouts. One might ask how much stock to put in these projections. I've looked at a few (details to follow in a moment), and the answer seems to be that they are pretty good at projecting guys who turn out to be successful. I'm pretty sure they are not based on what all minor leaguers with a given batting line end up doing (mean performance), because the bust rate for guys who have good seasons is so high that you'd end up projecting very few players to be MLB hitters. I think the concept is to extrapolate what a players will hit if he continues to learn at the average rate that guys who make it to MLB do, which in fact is a greater rate than the average player. So the projections may well be derived from just the guys who made it to MLB, even if that were 0/10. Here's Josh Reddick's projected EqA/TAv, and then his actuals: 2007 .277 2008 .277 2009 .237 2010 .248 2011 .276 ----- 2012 .270 2013 .255 2014 .275 2015 .282 A lot of people were doubting his 2011 season, but the DT's said that he had made an adjustment and returned to a previous level, and he's hit at exactly that level over three of his four seasons in Oakland. Anthony Rizzo: 2007 .276 2008 .285 2009 .294 2010 .284 2011 .289 --------- 2012 .310 (.282 in MLB) 2013 .268 2014 .324 2015 .337 Dustin Pedroia: 2004 .301 2005 .279 2006 .265 --------- 2007 .277 2008 .291 2009 .274 2010 .293 2011 .296 2012 .277 2013 .281 2014 .260 2015 .276 Two guys who were better than projected. Brandon Moss 2003 .254 2004 .298 2005 .266 2006 .272 2007 .277 2008 .270 --actual-- 2009 .233 --back to AAA-- 2010 .243 2011 .264 2012 .306 (.319 actual in MLB) --------- 2013 .296 2014 .280 2015 .234 His great, semi-fluke 2013 was exactly as good as his projection from his great, semi-fluke 2004.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 16, 2015 22:03:56 GMT -5
Davenport Peak Projections based on each of his four seasons, combining play at all levels: .298 / .405 / .465 .259 / .353 / .460 .209 / .279 / .283 .285 / .368 / .475 going into yesterday; I'll update this when I get up tomorrow and combine the result, weighted, with 2013. If Bradley can produce a line of .290/.380/.460 with 30-35 2b, and 15-20 HRs, he isn't just a multiple-repeat All-Star he is a top 5 outfielder in the game who will likely produce 5+ WAR a year if he is playing CF. I highly doubt he is that good, not saying that he doesn't have the ability to do that once or twice in his career, he showed throughout the minors they he could hit. Just trying to keep expectations in check. Going into today, .298 / .405 / .465 (.304 EqA / TAv) .259 / .353 / .460 (.274) .209 / .279 / .283 (.204) .295 / .375 / .508 (.294) Combining 2015 and 2013 (weighted 5:4) gives you .279 / .366 / .487, with a .285 TAv. The BA and OBP are telson's realistic guess plus .004 / .006, but the SA is much higher. As a talent, the guy Bradley resembles, if these projections are for real, is A.J. Pollock, with an even better glove, and a similar bat except for more strikeouts. One might ask how much stock to put in these projections. I've looked at a few (details to follow in a moment), and the answer seems to be that they are pretty good at projecting guys who turn out to be successful. I'm pretty sure they are not based on what all minor leaguers with a given batting line end up doing (mean performance), because the bust rate for guys who have good seasons is so high that you'd end up projecting very few players to be MLB hitters. I think the concept is to extrapolate what a players will hit if he continues to learn at the average rate that guys who make it to MLB do, which in fact is a greater rate than the average player. So the projections may well be derived from just the guys who made it to MLB, even if that were 0/10. Here's Josh Reddick's projected EqA/TAv, and then his actuals: 2007 .277 2008 .277 2009 .237 2010 .248 2011 .276 ----- 2012 .270 2013 .255 2014 .275 2015 .282 A lot of people were doubting his 2011 season, but the DT's said that he had made an adjustment and returned to a previous level, and he's hit at exactly that level over three of his four seasons in Oakland. Anthony Rizzo: 2007 .276 2008 .285 2009 .294 2010 .284 2011 .289 --------- 2012 .310 (.282 in MLB) 2013 .268 2014 .324 2015 .337 Dustin Pedroia: 2004 .301 2005 .279 2006 .265 --------- 2007 .277 2008 .291 2009 .274 2010 .293 2011 .296 2012 .277 2013 .281 2014 .260 2015 .276 Two guys who were better than projected. Brandon Moss 2003 .254 2004 .298 2005 .266 2006 .272 2007 .277 2008 .270 --actual-- 2009 .233 --back to AAA-- 2010 .243 2011 .264 2012 .306 (.319 actual in MLB) --------- 2013 .296 2014 .280 2015 .234 His great, semi-fluke 2013 was exactly as good as his projection from his great, semi-fluke 2004. Nice to know I was at least close on 2/3. Looking back, I actually think I under-projected SLG because I was being *too* conservative. Retribution for (perceived excessive) optimism on here is swift and violent hahaha! Given his 2b capabilities in the minors, and figuring he learns to utilize the wall as a LH, I really don't think .460-480 is all that unrealistic. I can see him putting together a string of 35/5/15 (2b/3b/HR) years, with good chances for more of each, particularly 2b and HR. The point re: attrition is a good one, and it's also one that I think bears keeping in mind with the current crop of Sox MLB-present and -ready young talent. One thing the Sox have done well in their recent drafts/signings is picking out players with "character"-players able to adapt without getting discouraged. Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Vazquez, and JBJ have all been pushed (some would argue several were rushed) and have made adjustments of varying degrees. I think that bodes well for the attrition rate within that group, and arguably (at least for me) makes the projections more believable/attainable. FWIW, and keeping in mind that the sample size is small, Rusney Castillo has done reasonably well at the MLB level. If he puts up numbers over a full season reflective of his MLB line so far, he's a solid if not above-average starter. I'd like to see him get his walk rate closer to 10%, but his K rate is low and he's basically on pace for 20 HR over 600 AB. I'm assuming he improves a little based on comfortability/acclimation, offsetting age-related decline. I'd be plenty happy with a .280/.330/.440 line from him. I'm feeling cautiously very optimistic about the OF situation next year.
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 16, 2015 23:08:38 GMT -5
I'm so happy he's broken out. against lefties, against aces, specialists. with authority and the standard awesome defense that is the best I've seen in person. I've seen griffey(although it was 2000) I've seen Juan lageres against the nats. JBJ makes fly balls into weapons to get extra outs. Now the bat comes through like he had spurts in triple A which leads me to believe it's not completely a fluke. I'm happy for him and his success. and I know jmei will hate this, but we need to move mookie to right and let JBJ do his thing
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2015 0:59:54 GMT -5
One might ask how much stock to put in these projections. I've looked at a few (details to follow in a moment), and the answer seems to be that they are pretty good at projecting guys who turn out to be successful. I'm pretty sure they are not based on what all minor leaguers with a given batting line end up doing (mean performance), because the bust rate for guys who have good seasons is so high that you'd end up projecting very few players to be MLB hitters. I think the concept is to extrapolate what a players will hit if he continues to learn at the average rate that guys who make it to MLB do, which in fact is a greater rate than the average player. So the projections may well be derived from just the guys who made it to MLB, even if that were 0/10. Thinking about it further, this has to be the case, and to understand that, you have to get that "Peak D[avenport]T[ranslation]" is shorthand (Clay doesn't use the word "projection"); what he actually calls them is "Peak (Age-Adjusted) DT." The Peak line attempts to answer the question, for a player at this age and level, what age-27 MLB performance does this correspond to, in terms of impressiveness, rarity, etc.? Only it's smart about answering the question: it knows how each component (K rate, IsoD, BABIP, etc.) tends to age. I'll do Xander, Mookie, Swihart, and Vazquez's careers tomorrow if I get the chance. Oh, and a few guys from this season. Note that Clay's age adjustment is surprisingly small, so Devers and Margot may well be underrated by this methodology. Ditto for Moncada and his slow start, of course. .256 / .370 / .496 (.299) Benindentdi .293 / .365 / .467 (.282) Travis .257 / .348 / .430 (.281) Moncada (TAv reflects SB) .304 / .326 / .485 (.273) Hernandez .269 / .315 / .478 (.266) Devers .266 / .316 / .476 (.264) Guerra .259 / .311 / .421 (.258) Margot
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2015 12:39:13 GMT -5
I know this is small sample magic right now, but the swing is different from last year. Shorter to the ball, and a little more compact.
I will stand by my dream of a Mookie-JBJ-Castillo OF with JBJ in center.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 17, 2015 13:32:19 GMT -5
Going to play Devil’s Advocate for a minute:
Is it time to sell high on Bradley?
Has his recent hot streak raised his value enough that he might be a valuable chip in a trade before the waiver deadline?
Not saying I’d do it, but what if he tanks down the stretch, and hits like he has his entire career? It would be foolish to forget the fact that other than a 5 game stretch where he had 13 hits in 22 at-bats, JBJ has never hit at the MLB level. In 564 AB’s he’s hitting .204, take out his 5 game hot streak and he has batted .188 over 542 career at-bats. Honestly, I think JBJ has turned a corner in his career, but logically it is tough to put more stock in a 5 game hot streak, than the previous 189 games over the previous 3 seasons.
Food for thought.
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