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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 21, 2015 15:27:39 GMT -5
If I had to predict numbers for a full season I'm thinking like .250 .325 .425 with a .750 ops. He could have a higher average and on base %, but he could also have a lower slugging %. 3 weeks ago you would have traded him for a reliever, now we are predicting him to have numbers of a young hall of famer. Steamer has him at 252/.319/.391, which would put him at a 93 wRC+. That's something like a 3 win player, and it could turn into 4 if he hits a little better. That's his reasonable upside though - it's pretty unlikely that he keeps hitting like this and turns into Manny Machado. He's raised his stock this year from 4th outfielder to solid 1st division starter. No need to oversell it, that's enough change on its own.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2015 16:03:49 GMT -5
I am a big Bradley guy and have been claiming for two years that he should be at worst a .250 hitter in the majors and with his on base skills and D that's a nice player. One hot streak and you think he's better then Swihart and Rodriguez? I think that's crazy talk, as his current power is not something he will continue. Obviously his current power won't continue, but we're talking about the difference between a 4 WAR player and an 8 WAR player. He really doesn't have to hit much to get to 4. Maybe a 100 wRC+. I think you're exaggerating how easy it would be for Bradley to hit for a 100 wRC+. Even with 110 really good plate appearances this year, Bradley's career major league wRC+ is 65. His strikeout rate this year is still a below-average 24.5%, and he's still swinging-and-missing a lot. His swinging strike rate of 11.5% in 2015 is virtually identical to his 11.7% last year and 11.5% in 2013, and his 73.2% contact rate is actually lower than it was in 2014 (74.9%) and 2013 (73.4%).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 21, 2015 16:07:10 GMT -5
If I had to predict numbers for a full season I'm thinking like .250 .325 .425 with a .750 ops. He could have a higher average and on base %, but he could also have a lower slugging %. 3 weeks ago you would have traded him for a reliever, now we are predicting him to have numbers of a young hall of famer. Steamer has him at 252/.319/.391, which would put him at a 93 wRC+. That's something like a 3 win player, and it could turn into 4 if he hits a little better. That's his reasonable upside though - it's pretty unlikely that he keeps hitting like this and turns into Manny Machado. He's raised his stock this year from 4th outfielder to solid 1st division starter. No need to oversell it, that's enough change on its own. Steamer doesn't know that 2014 was using an entirely different swing than the rest of his career. Projection systems are great for when we don't know the reason for variations in player performance. We have a tendency to put too much emphasis on whatever we want to emphasize, and toss out meaningful data, not realizing that all the variation was essentially random (i.e., whatever caused it will continue to happen). We also don't regress to the mean enough. Projection systems help us against these biases. Three rules of thumb for beating them: 1) Whenever you see an A B A pattern, where B represents a huge variation from A over the course of part or all of a season, you should suspect a non-random variation, something that was caused. The larger the total of A and the difference from B, the more you suspect a cause. 2) If you already know the cause, just toss B out. (B is not always worse; when Kevin Millar opened his stance one year, he went crazy for a month before pitchers re-adjusted, at which point he went back to his regular stance. You want to toss that month out just as if he were playing hurt and had been awful.) 3) If you can discover a cause upon research or analysis, tentatively toss B out. Give two sets of projections, explain the difference, state your confidence that B should be tossed. I've had a lot of success with this. JBJ's 2014 is a case 2. His 2015 is precisely in line with his previous career, using MLEs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 21, 2015 16:07:31 GMT -5
I think we are all getting a little too carried away due to his mega hot streak. For me it confirms what I knew all along he can hit enough that you will have to play him because his D is so great. But saying things like he's a 4 to 8 WAR player and he's near an .800 ops player is going a little over the top. If I had to predict numbers for a full season I'm thinking like .250 .325 .425 with a .750 ops. He could have a higher average and on base %, but he could also have a lower slugging %. 3 weeks ago you would have traded him for a reliever, now we are predicting him to have numbers of a young hall of famer. And if he had that .750 batting line, he'd be a 4 win player. He'd be an 8 win player if he hit like he is now all the time. So you think a .750 in right field gets him 4 WARs? I don't, maybe in CF but I don't see them moving Betts at this point.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 21, 2015 16:13:27 GMT -5
Obviously his current power won't continue, but we're talking about the difference between a 4 WAR player and an 8 WAR player. He really doesn't have to hit much to get to 4. Maybe a 100 wRC+. I think you're exaggerating how easy it would be for Bradley to hit for a 100 wRC+. Even with 110 really good plate appearances this year, Bradley's career major league wRC+ is 65. His strikeout rate this year is still a below-average 24.5%, and he's still swinging-and-missing a lot. His swinging strike rate of 11.5% in 2015 is virtually identical to his 11.7% last year and 11.5% in 2013, and his 73.2% contact rate is actually lower than it was in 2014 (74.9%) and 2013 (73.4%). I'm not buying projection systems that can't adjust to a player with a completely different swing. I'll go with scouting here. edit - scooped by Eric. There's just no way that JBJ's 2013-2015 seasons should just be averaged and call it what he is now. He is clearly a different hitter now than he was before and resembles the one who raked through the minor leagues.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 21, 2015 16:14:28 GMT -5
And if he had that .750 batting line, he'd be a 4 win player. He'd be an 8 win player if he hit like he is now all the time. So you think a .750 in right field gets him 4 WARs? I don't, maybe in CF but I don't see them moving Betts at this point. He's still the same player regardless of where they play him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 21, 2015 16:23:13 GMT -5
So you think a .750 in right field gets him 4 WARs? I don't, maybe in CF but I don't see them moving Betts at this point. He's still the same player regardless of where they play him. Yea same player but his WAR would be different! You get that a 4 WAR third baseman is not going to be a 4 WAR first baseman right? Position matters a ton with respect to WAR. CF is a lighter hitting position. Also CF would give him more of a chance to increase his defensive value, then being in RF.
Do you get what we are talking about? Because you sound clueless.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2015 16:24:59 GMT -5
I think you're exaggerating how easy it would be for Bradley to hit for a 100 wRC+. Even with 110 really good plate appearances this year, Bradley's career major league wRC+ is 65. His strikeout rate this year is still a below-average 24.5%, and he's still swinging-and-missing a lot. His swinging strike rate of 11.5% in 2015 is virtually identical to his 11.7% last year and 11.5% in 2013, and his 73.2% contact rate is actually lower than it was in 2014 (74.9%) and 2013 (73.4%). I'm not buying projection systems that can't adjust to a player with a completely different swing. I'll go with scouting here. edit - scooped by Eric. There's just no way that JBJ's 2013-2015 seasons should just be averaged and call it what he is now. He is clearly a different hitter now than he was before and resembles the one who raked through the minor leagues. As I mentioned, he's still swinging-and-missing a lot this year, which was the thing that his new swing was supposed to fix. The real difference is the .280 ISO (totally out of character; even in the minors, he never cracked a .200 ISO and was more of an average power guy than a real home run threat) and the uptick in walk rate (his o-swing% is down a little, but not nearly enough to explain the uptick), neither of which look particularly sustainable to me.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 21, 2015 16:40:05 GMT -5
He's still the same player regardless of where they play him. Yea same player but his WAR would be different! You get that a 4 WAR third baseman is not going to be a 4 WAR first baseman right? Position matters a ton with respect to WAR. CF is a lighter hitting position. Also CF would give him more of a chance to increase his defensive value, then being in RF.
Do you get what we are talking about? Because you sound clueless.
JBJ can't control if the team doesn't play him at his best position. I'm not even sure what we're arguing about anymore. I thought we were talking about how good JBJ actually is, not about exactly how valuable he is to the team. If he's on a team with Trout, Mangle and Mays who all played 160 games, JBJ wouldn't be worth anything I guess? I see WAR as both an individual stat and a team stat. Let's put it this way. On a team that played JBJ in CF, he'd be a 4 fWAR player if he OPS'ed around .750. Can you accept that?
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 25, 2015 13:21:00 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 7m7 minutes ago Felger and Mazz insinuating Jackie Bradley is on steroids.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2015 13:32:45 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 7m7 minutes ago Felger and Mazz insinuating Jackie Bradley is on steroids. They must have new ones that help players make contact with the ball.
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 25, 2015 14:17:36 GMT -5
Its weird how some posters and even some mods still are talking down on Bradley even though he's raking and playing the sublime defense he is always played. You know, he swings and misses so does Mike Trout. His zone contact percentage is around 82 83 percent, Bryce Harper during his hot Streak was at 85%. I understand why some people want to see mookie and center and won' accept anything else bc he has become above average. I'm sure Mookie would play the wall perfectly fine, some people it seems on this forum just don't want to see Jackie Bradley in center no matter what he hits. He is likely the best center fielder in the AL or league. Learn to accept that he has hit his way into starting everyday and center field over Mookie, who can play left or right. Jackie never played second base
For those that continue to add in his 2013 and 2014 numbers with those of this past month are just haters in my opinion. Different swing, simplified approach, and 600 plate appearances Give the guy some credit he's he's using the whole field, and he's hitting for power. Yes he striking out, but he's also taking walks. And all this came after everybody in Boston wanted him the F gone. Jackie and center, and let Rusneh and Mookie figure out who plays the corners, because accept it if jackie has anything close to this mookie is nowhere near as valuable in center field. Accept it Jmei
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Post by jchang on Aug 25, 2015 14:32:27 GMT -5
I have confidence that if a prospect looked like a legit multi-year triple crown + gold glove winner, we would be able to taper down on the criticism of his abilities.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 25, 2015 14:33:33 GMT -5
I'm not buying projection systems that can't adjust to a player with a completely different swing. I'll go with scouting here. edit - scooped by Eric. There's just no way that JBJ's 2013-2015 seasons should just be averaged and call it what he is now. He is clearly a different hitter now than he was before and resembles the one who raked through the minor leagues. As I mentioned, he's still swinging-and-missing a lot this year, which was the thing that his new swing was supposed to fix. The real difference is the .280 ISO (totally out of character; even in the minors, he never cracked a .200 ISO and was more of an average power guy than a real home run threat) and the uptick in walk rate (his o-swing% is down a little, but not nearly enough to explain the uptick), neither of which look particularly sustainable to me. I consider myself extremely analytically minded. However, I would say that this is a case where we absolutely need scouting to supplement the analytics, as Eric and Jim pointed out. JBJ has a completely different, simplified swing than he did over the past few years. I don't think the point is necessarily that he is striking out less or more, but that he is able to level off his swing more consistently (and get it started much earlier, see Matthew Kory) so that he is not rolling over pitches and/or making weak contact when he does make contact. Just look at the pieces of hitting he had against Volquez and Kluber. Of course, these are small samples. And you could be arguing that I'm making post-hoc, results based analysis. Yet sometimes, the eye test helps. He never had that kind of opposite field power at the major league level and ability to go with (and catch up to) pitches on that outer half until this season. I don't think he's a .280 ISO guy, either. But I think the uptick is definitely real.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 25, 2015 14:50:40 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 7m7 minutes ago Felger and Mazz insinuating Jackie Bradley is on steroids. They must have new ones that help players make contact with the ball. JBJ contact% 2014: 74.9% 2015: 73.6% But yeah, steroid speculation is the worst.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 25, 2015 15:13:19 GMT -5
Here's an updated version of the chart from a few pages back. If you squint on this one, you can make out that those lines have largely plateaued. I'd guess we'll see some regression in the OPS as his isolated power comes back to earth, something that jmei pointed out is probably not sustainable. It's doubtful he'll run off another string of eleven straight extra-base hits which helped fuel that ISOP. Even if he were to drop .100 points off that OPS, he's still a very valuable player. Is this close to the new normal? Unlikely in the case of the power numbers, but given where he started it's certainly a nice run:
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 25, 2015 16:03:03 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 7m7 minutes ago Felger and Mazz insinuating Jackie Bradley is on steroids. Yeah well, what do you expect? The few times I heard these guys, it was all negative so I don't listen. I do think Bradley is a bit more pumped up in his upper body. Reference to Bradley swinging and missing...I believe most of those are low off-speed pitches where his aggression in 2 strike counts is betraying him. He does not seem to be swinging through fastballs nearly as much. Before when he missed it seemed that he was late on FBs and early on slow stuff anticipating FBs. I think there is a 'distinction with a difference' there. To me he is a totally different player and kudos to the person who put up videos of his before and after swings. It is so much more fun to watch JBJ, Mookie, Xander, Castillo & Shaw.....
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Post by jmei on Aug 25, 2015 16:46:33 GMT -5
Reference to Bradley swinging and missing...I believe most of those are low off-speed pitches where his aggression in 2 strike counts is betraying him. He does not seem to be swinging through fastballs nearly as much. Before when he missed it seemed that he was late on FBs and early on slow stuff anticipating FBs. I think there is a 'distinction with a difference' there. Per Brooks Baseball, in 2014, Bradley had a whiff rate (percentage of swinging strikes versus that pitch) of 9.45% versus four-seam and two-seam fastballs (sample of 1090 pitches). In 2015, that whiff rate versus fastballs is 9.33% (sample of 268 pitches). The whiff per swing is 22.15% in 2014 and 20.66% this year. So a slight improvement, but one that doesn't look terribly significant to me.
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Post by jmei on Aug 25, 2015 17:06:41 GMT -5
As I mentioned, he's still swinging-and-missing a lot this year, which was the thing that his new swing was supposed to fix. The real difference is the .280 ISO (totally out of character; even in the minors, he never cracked a .200 ISO and was more of an average power guy than a real home run threat) and the uptick in walk rate (his o-swing% is down a little, but not nearly enough to explain the uptick), neither of which look particularly sustainable to me. I consider myself extremely analytically minded. However, I would say that this is a case where we absolutely need scouting to supplement the analytics, as Eric and Jim pointed out. JBJ has a completely different, simplified swing than he did over the past few years. I don't think the point is necessarily that he is striking out less or more, but that he is able to level off his swing more consistently (and get it started much earlier, see Matthew Kory) so that he is not rolling over pitches and/or making weak contact when he does make contact. Just look at the pieces of hitting he had against Volquez and Kluber. Of course, these are small samples. And you could be arguing that I'm making post-hoc, results based analysis. Yet sometimes, the eye test helps. He never had that kind of opposite field power at the major league level and ability to go with (and catch up to) pitches on that outer half until this season. I don't think he's a .280 ISO guy, either. But I think the uptick is definitely real. I'm just reserving judgment until the we get more than a month's worth of results (both scouting and statistical). I'm not saying it's impossible that this is real, but I'd like to see more before I call him "likely the best center fielder in the AL or league" or start making plans to trade Betts or Pedroia to make room for him, all of which have been suggested. The whole impetus behind reworking his swing was to reduce the amount of swing-and-miss, and stats like contact rate and strikeout rate are the quickest to stabilize, so the fact that he's still striking out a lot seems like a red flag-- or at least something to watch.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 25, 2015 17:16:22 GMT -5
I consider myself extremely analytically minded. However, I would say that this is a case where we absolutely need scouting to supplement the analytics, as Eric and Jim pointed out. JBJ has a completely different, simplified swing than he did over the past few years. I don't think the point is necessarily that he is striking out less or more, but that he is able to level off his swing more consistently (and get it started much earlier, see Matthew Kory) so that he is not rolling over pitches and/or making weak contact when he does make contact. Just look at the pieces of hitting he had against Volquez and Kluber. Of course, these are small samples. And you could be arguing that I'm making post-hoc, results based analysis. Yet sometimes, the eye test helps. He never had that kind of opposite field power at the major league level and ability to go with (and catch up to) pitches on that outer half until this season. I don't think he's a .280 ISO guy, either. But I think the uptick is definitely real. I'm just reserving judgment until the we get more than a month's worth of results (both scouting and statistical). I'm not saying it's impossible that this is real, but I'd like to see more before I call him "likely the best center fielder in the AL or league" or start making plans to trade Betts or Pedroia to make room for him, all of which have been suggested. The whole impetus behind reworking his swing was to reduce the amount of swing-and-miss, and stats like contact rate and strikeout rate are the quickest to stabilize, so the fact that he's still striking out a lot seems like a red flag-- or at least something to watch. Agreed. I'd like to say his BA/OBP will increase as his ISO stabilizes, but the Ks could impede on that. I think he ends up a .150 ISO guy so I hope he can put up a .350 OBP at least.
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 25, 2015 18:40:15 GMT -5
Reference to Bradley swinging and missing...I believe most of those are low off-speed pitches where his aggression in 2 strike counts is betraying him. He does not seem to be swinging through fastballs nearly as much. Before when he missed it seemed that he was late on FBs and early on slow stuff anticipating FBs. I think there is a 'distinction with a difference' there. Per Brooks Baseball, in 2014, Bradley had a whiff rate (percentage of swinging strikes versus that pitch) of 9.45% versus four-seam and two-seam fastballs (sample of 1090 pitches). In 2015, that whiff rate versus fastballs is 9.33% (sample of 268 pitches). The whiff per swing is 22.15% in 2014 and 20.66% this year. So a slight improvement, but one that doesn't look terribly significant to me. I'll take that as gospel but 2015 included the before swing so I would be more interested in the after swing change stats.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2015 19:26:08 GMT -5
They must have new ones that help players make contact with the ball. JBJ contact% 2014: 74.9% 2015: 73.6% But yeah, steroid speculation is the worst. Just from the eye test, there has to be a better stat than that. Because do you remember the second half of the year when he looked like he belonged in rookie ball and had a 40% K-rate?
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 25, 2015 21:26:00 GMT -5
I consider myself extremely analytically minded. However, I would say that this is a case where we absolutely need scouting to supplement the analytics, as Eric and Jim pointed out. JBJ has a completely different, simplified swing than he did over the past few years. I don't think the point is necessarily that he is striking out less or more, but that he is able to level off his swing more consistently (and get it started much earlier, see Matthew Kory) so that he is not rolling over pitches and/or making weak contact when he does make contact. Just look at the pieces of hitting he had against Volquez and Kluber. Of course, these are small samples. And you could be arguing that I'm making post-hoc, results based analysis. Yet sometimes, the eye test helps. He never had that kind of opposite field power at the major league level and ability to go with (and catch up to) pitches on that outer half until this season. I don't think he's a .280 ISO guy, either. But I think the uptick is definitely real. I'm just reserving judgment until the we get more than a month's worth of results (both scouting and statistical). I'm not saying it's impossible that this is real, but I'd like to see more before I call him "likely the best center fielder in the AL or league" or start making plans to trade Betts or Pedroia to make room for him, all of which have been suggested. The whole impetus behind reworking his swing was to reduce the amount of swing-and-miss, and stats like contact rate and strikeout rate are the quickest to stabilize, so the fact that he's still striking out a lot seems like a red flag-- or at least something to watch. you didn't reserve that judgment for Mookie who made a rise during the minor leagues basically on a hot streak and hit the ball at the end of the year just like Jackie is this year except of course without the incredible defense. So you're just judging this based on contact percentages and other like advanced metrics? the mookie in center and jackie in right argument is so tired of this point, at the end of the year move Mookie 2 left, and put rusney in right if they keep hitting edit. he is the best cf in the league. If not its obvious he is leaps and bounds over mooks in center eye test or whatever. If you truly think that they are close to defensively I can't debate with someone like that. It's almost like people want to see mooks and center where his value will be higher than in left
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Post by jmei on Aug 26, 2015 2:22:45 GMT -5
Per Brooks Baseball, in 2014, Bradley had a whiff rate (percentage of swinging strikes versus that pitch) of 9.45% versus four-seam and two-seam fastballs (sample of 1090 pitches). In 2015, that whiff rate versus fastballs is 9.33% (sample of 268 pitches). The whiff per swing is 22.15% in 2014 and 20.66% this year. So a slight improvement, but one that doesn't look terribly significant to me. I'll take that as gospel but 2015 included the before swing so I would be more interested in the after swing change stats. Since he came back up in late July, the whiff rate versus fastballs is 8.59% and the whiff per swing versus fastballs is 19.32%. So an improvement, but still not a huge one (it's a sample size of 198, so it basically means he has two fewer swings and misses than he would have had last year).
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Post by jmei on Aug 26, 2015 2:31:05 GMT -5
I'm just reserving judgment until the we get more than a month's worth of results (both scouting and statistical). I'm not saying it's impossible that this is real, but I'd like to see more before I call him "likely the best center fielder in the AL or league" or start making plans to trade Betts or Pedroia to make room for him, all of which have been suggested. The whole impetus behind reworking his swing was to reduce the amount of swing-and-miss, and stats like contact rate and strikeout rate are the quickest to stabilize, so the fact that he's still striking out a lot seems like a red flag-- or at least something to watch. you didn't reserve that judgment for Mookie who made a rise during the minor leagues basically on a hot streak and hit the ball at the end of the year just like Jackie is this year except of course without the incredible defense. So you're just judging this based on contact percentages and other like advanced metrics? the mookie in center and jackie in right argument is so tired of this point, at the end of the year move Mookie 2 left, and put rusney in right if they keep hitting edit. he is the best cf in the league. If not its obvious he is leaps and bounds over mooks in center eye test or whatever. If you truly think that they are close to defensively I can't debate with someone like that. It's almost like people want to see mooks and center where his value will be higher than in left I absolutely reserved judgment on Betts when he was ~100 PAs into his breakout (see, e.g., this post from June 2013). Not every hot streak signals a breakout, even if it's accompanied by a plausible narrative (see, e.g., Chih-Hsien Chiang and his diabetes management). You did not specify that you meant defensively only. Even then, I think Kiermaier might be better, and guys like Cain and Lagares (when healthy) are at least on the same level. He is better than Mookie defensively, but I think it's closer than you're suggesting.
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