SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 9, 2015 15:30:36 GMT -5
The original question may have to go unanswered. Both are so heavy that none of us are going to be able to pick them up!
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Sept 9, 2015 15:35:42 GMT -5
I'm happy I got the OPS point on the predictions game.
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 9, 2015 15:53:30 GMT -5
The Zen Balance of the Bat and the Glove
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 9, 2015 16:05:16 GMT -5
Is JBJ eligible for comeback prospect of the year? That's who I picked in the contest.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 9, 2015 16:40:08 GMT -5
The original question may have to go unanswered. Both are so heavy that none of us are going to be able to pick them up! I think we should look at it as one of those unanswerable questions, sort of like a koan or something. Q: Jackie Bradley, does the glove outweigh the bat? A: Mu.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Sept 9, 2015 17:32:12 GMT -5
Seems like everyone is ruling out selling high on Bradley this offseason. I think it's worth considering. www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/newsletter/108-stitches-newsletterPosting in entirety because it will only stay for today. If everything goes like history has shown, JBJ will have at least a career 100 OPS+ which probably makes him around a 4 win player minimum due to his defense. So that's where we're starting if you even think about trading him. Yeah I would be aiming for JBJ+ for someone like Syndergaard, or walk.
|
|
|
Post by slam761 on Sept 9, 2015 21:32:25 GMT -5
Comment From bud Do you think the Red Sox go into 2016 with the Bradley/Betts/Castillo outfield? Hung up on Dombrowski’s comment about “power at the corners” as a core of his team building philosophy. Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t see Dombrowski as a guy who is going to go with a speed-and-defense OF. I bet Bradley gets traded this winter.
What do you guys think of this? I don't see any logic in it at all. When I think of a "speed and defense" outfield, I picture guys like Billy Hamilton, Ben Revere, Rajai Davis, etc. All 3 of the current Sox OF seem to offer more than enough upside with the bat that they wouldn't really fit that description.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2015 23:56:57 GMT -5
Seems like everyone is ruling out selling high on Bradley this offseason. I think it's worth considering. Not, it's not worth considering. We now know that his offensive floor is average MLB hitter, and he's a 1.5 dWAR player, so he has a 4.5 WAR floor, and 5.0 is an All-Star. His mean projection is upwards of that. If you're a crap team that has holes to fill and didn't expect to contend for a few years, maybe you trade that player. Maybe you trade that player if you have one hole to fill and have a guy nearly as good to take his place, if you want to contend next year. If the fourth best MLB-ready outfielder in your organization is also your backup SS, and you are a serious contender next year, and your only needs are a frontline starter (who you can get in free agency or a trade) a pair of relievers, and a RHH bench bat, no, you don't consider trading a very likely All-Star-caliber (and nearly certain top 6 or so in MLB) CF whom you control for his ages 26 through 29 seasons.
|
|
|
Post by klostrophobic on Sept 9, 2015 23:59:47 GMT -5
The original question may have to go unanswered. Both are so heavy that none of us are going to be able to pick them up! I think we should look at it as one of those unanswerable questions, sort of like a koan or something. Q: Jackie Bradley, does the glove outweigh the bat? A: Mu. Q: Jackie Bradley, does the glove outweigh the bat? A: Jackie Bradley, does the bat outweigh the glove? EDIT: I guess I ganked brendan98's joke.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 10, 2015 0:12:44 GMT -5
www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/newsletter/108-stitches-newsletterPosting in entirety because it will only stay for today. If everything goes like history has shown, JBJ will have at least a career 100 OPS+ which probably makes him around a 4 win player minimum due to his defense. So that's where we're starting if you even think about trading him. Yeah I would be aiming for JBJ+ for someone like Syndergaard, or walk. Gotta love this place, where folks are so careful not to propose fanboy trades that they overshoot by a whole fanboynitude. Bradley's four remaining years of control will yield 18 WAR at a minimum, and likelier 20 to 23. Syndergaard has six years of control. There were 21 pitchers in MLB who had 18+ fWAR (which I'm using only because it's quicker) over the six years from 2009-2014, and 12 guys who were above 23. IOW, if you had a rookie pitcher whose mean projection was legitimate ace, you might well, in a vacuum, make that trade even-up. But as good as Thor is, he's not that good. Now, the Sox are not in a vacuum, and trading higher-WAR players for lower-WAR players with more years of control is precisely the opposite strategy that a team with the game's best farm system and very deep pockets should be pursuing.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Sept 10, 2015 5:49:38 GMT -5
Yeah I would be aiming for JBJ+ for someone like Syndergaard, or walk. Gotta love this place, where folks are so careful not to propose fanboy trades that they overshoot by a whole fanboynitude. Bradley's four remaining years of control will yield 18 WAR at a minimum, and likelier 20 to 23. Syndergaard has six years of control. There were 21 pitchers in MLB who had 18+ fWAR (which I'm using only because it's quicker) over the six years from 2009-2014, and 12 guys who were above 23. IOW, if you had a rookie pitcher whose mean projection was legitimate ace, you might well, in a vacuum, make that trade even-up. But as good as Thor is, he's not that good. Now, the Sox are not in a vacuum, and trading higher-WAR players for lower-WAR players with more years of control is precisely the opposite strategy that a team with the game's best farm system and very deep pockets should be pursuing. Assuming JBJ has a 4.5 WAR floor is a bit ridiculous. You have no way of knowing for sure his bat doesn't fall apart again. You also are ruling out Syndergaard improving, and dWAR varies so much that it's not worth predicting (look at Iglesias this year). Overlooking a a high K rate, unsustainable .380 BABIP, and an ISO .150 too high is being a fanboy. JBJ is still at risk to hit for a much lower average than we expect, and get half the dWAR you'd expect. He's a high floor player, but 4.5? That's being far too generous. I think I'll let the track record develop a bit more before I say he has the floor of a top 25 position player.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 10, 2015 5:57:14 GMT -5
OMG a name from the past...Lou Clinton!! I remember so well listening to the games on radio (very little TV in those days) when Clinton was on his streak. He was 7-8 in a double header and had 8 straight hits at one point. Plus he had power. We all thought that we had a new star.
And yeah...why tell Bradley about Clinton's flame out.
|
|
|
Post by ethanbein on Sept 10, 2015 8:56:13 GMT -5
Seems like everyone is ruling out selling high on Bradley this offseason. I think it's worth considering. Not, it's not worth considering. We now know that his offensive floor is average MLB hitter, and he's a 1.5 dWAR player, so he has a 4.5 WAR floor, and 5.0 is an All-Star. His mean projection is upwards of that. Well, for one, 2 + 1.5 = 3.5, so that would be his floor by your projection. But I think it's ridiculous to assume that his *floor* is an average MLB hitter. This is a guy who was *destroyed* in MLB last year. I agree that he's turned a corner and is likely to be a good hitter going forward, but there absolutely is a real chance that he's a below-average hitter going forward - his contact rate is *down* over three percentage points from last year! Steamer, the only ROS projection system that takes into account in-season minor league data, has him at a 98 wRC+ going forward. I don't think it's unreasonable to take the over on that given the scouting we have, but I don't think that projection is that far off. Now, that's still a very, very good player (go look at Kevin Kiermaier this year for the ceiling there), but there's still some downside risk in that projection.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 10, 2015 9:37:33 GMT -5
I've watched Kiermaier hit and he's a terrible comp. He has almost no clue against left handers, none whatsoever. Breaking balls destroy him. And he has no plate discipline, none at all. They're about as far apart as you can get.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Sept 10, 2015 9:46:14 GMT -5
JBJ has a career 77+ in nearly 700 PAs, more than a full year. He has career accumulated 2.4 fWAR. To speak of "we know" he has a "floor" of 4.5 WAR/year is absurd. "We know" exactly one thing, and that is that "we don't know" - and we includes you Eric
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Sept 10, 2015 9:47:44 GMT -5
I've watched Kiermaier hit and he's a terrible comp. He has almost no clue against left handers, none whatsoever. Breaking balls destroy him. And he has no plate discipline, none at all. They're about as far apart as you can get. Well, Kiermaier is a better OF - there is that
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Sept 10, 2015 10:09:53 GMT -5
I've watched Kiermaier hit and he's a terrible comp. He has almost no clue against left handers, none whatsoever. Breaking balls destroy him. And he has no plate discipline, none at all. They're about as far apart as you can get. Well, Kiermaier is a better OF - there is that Kiermairer is a great defender but that dWAR will not be sustained and that is where his obscenely high WAR number is created. Plus, plus defenders will always be good but there dWAR will vary year to year. Its not a vary stable statistic. I think going forward JBJ has a chance to be a better player and will be a better player than Kiermairer, but neither is likely to average to be a career 5 WAR average player. I like JBJ to be an annual 3-5 guy. Offensively look at his minor league numbers and i think he should be a .350 obp .450 slg. A very good player
|
|
|
Post by ibsmith85 on Sept 10, 2015 10:14:05 GMT -5
I've watched Kiermaier hit and he's a terrible comp. He has almost no clue against left handers, none whatsoever. Breaking balls destroy him. And he has no plate discipline, none at all. They're about as far apart as you can get. Well, Kiermaier is a better OF - there is that I love how you ridicule one of the smartest posters on this board by saying the only thing we know is we don't know anything. And then follow it up with an absolute comment like "Kiermaier IS BETTER".
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 10, 2015 10:24:13 GMT -5
If the Mets would take Bradley straight up for any of their top starters it'd be foolish not to jump on that. Others have already pointed out that. 4.5 WAR floor is absurd.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 10, 2015 10:26:06 GMT -5
I believe he was at -0.1 fWAR at the end of July. He has acquired 1.1 fWAR in 16 games in August. Can we extrapolate that to an 11 fWAR season yet? He has 2.3 fWAR in 32 games in August and September. That's still 11.5 fWAR per 160 games.
|
|
ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,446
|
Post by ianrs on Sept 10, 2015 10:39:15 GMT -5
If the Mets would take Bradley straight up for any of their top starters it'd be foolish not to jump on that. Others have already pointed out that. 4.5 WAR floor is absurd. In this scenario, who plays the 3rd outfield spot until Benintendi/Margot are ready? Holt? What if Rusney reaggrivates his ankle or Mookie crashes into a wall? Craig?
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Sept 10, 2015 11:26:31 GMT -5
If the Mets would take Bradley straight up for any of their top starters it'd be foolish not to jump on that. Others have already pointed out that. 4.5 WAR floor is absurd. In this scenario, who plays the 3rd outfield spot until Benintendi/Margot are ready? Holt? What if Rusney reaggrivates his ankle or Mookie crashes into a wall? Craig? I think if you trade JBJ or Rusney for a pitcher, that we would quickly get in on Heyward. He has a lot of raw power to tap into and has a very high floor with significant offensive untapped potential. I know we have Benintendi, Margot and Moncada as potential OF, but I doubt we'd worry about that yet. Margot is someone I still see being dealt, and when the time comes, I don't think Castillo will be the type of player you let block Benintendi/Moncada. Personally my dream scenario would be a young Mets pitcher for a package that includes Castillo (CF next year for NYM) and Margot (potential star CF) for the future.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Sept 10, 2015 12:02:52 GMT -5
Gotta love this place, where folks are so careful not to propose fanboy trades that they overshoot by a whole fanboynitude. Bradley's four remaining years of control will yield 18 WAR at a minimum, and likelier 20 to 23. Syndergaard has six years of control. There were 21 pitchers in MLB who had 18+ fWAR (which I'm using only because it's quicker) over the six years from 2009-2014, and 12 guys who were above 23. IOW, if you had a rookie pitcher whose mean projection was legitimate ace, you might well, in a vacuum, make that trade even-up. But as good as Thor is, he's not that good. Now, the Sox are not in a vacuum, and trading higher-WAR players for lower-WAR players with more years of control is precisely the opposite strategy that a team with the game's best farm system and very deep pockets should be pursuing. Assuming JBJ has a 4.5 WAR floor is a bit ridiculous. You have no way of knowing for sure his bat doesn't fall apart again. You also are ruling out Syndergaard improving, and dWAR varies so much that it's not worth predicting (look at Iglesias this year). Overlooking a a high K rate, unsustainable .380 BABIP, and an ISO .150 too high is being a fanboy. JBJ is still at risk to hit for a much lower average than we expect, and get half the dWAR you'd expect. He's a high floor player, but 4.5? That's being far too generous. I think I'll let the track record develop a bit more before I say he has the floor of a top 25 position player. That 4.5 WAR is based on him posting average offensive numbers. And if you read the article above, you'd see that there is, based on his cohort, a high probability that he does so: 92% of players posting a month like he has had a career OPS of 110 or better. That's why it's a reasonable floor. Sure, he could break a leg or explode in a ball of white light, too. But the whole "Bradley could be crappy and Syndergaard could get better" argument is nonsensical. Sure, it *could* happen, but the odds are against it. At the very least, Syndergaard represents a substantially greater injury risk. If love to see the Sox acquire him, but this comparison was based on numbers and projections, not "the feels." I can certainly envision Syndergaard putting up some 5 or 6 WAR seasons, but right now the data say he's less (and maybe significantly) likely to do it than JBJ is.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Sept 10, 2015 12:09:27 GMT -5
Assuming JBJ has a 4.5 WAR floor is a bit ridiculous. You have no way of knowing for sure his bat doesn't fall apart again. You also are ruling out Syndergaard improving, and dWAR varies so much that it's not worth predicting (look at Iglesias this year). Overlooking a a high K rate, unsustainable .380 BABIP, and an ISO .150 too high is being a fanboy. JBJ is still at risk to hit for a much lower average than we expect, and get half the dWAR you'd expect. He's a high floor player, but 4.5? That's being far too generous. I think I'll let the track record develop a bit more before I say he has the floor of a top 25 position player. That 4.5 WAR is based on him posting average offensive numbers. And if you read the article above, you'd see that there is, based on his cohort, a high probability that he does so: 92% of players posting a month like he has had a career OPS of 110 or better. That's why it's a reasonable floor. Sure, he could break a leg or explode in a ball of white light, too. But the whole "Bradley could be crappy and Syndergaard could get better" argument is nonsensical. Sure, it *could* happen, but the odds are against it. At the very least, Syndergaard represents a substantially greater injury risk. If love to see the Sox acquire him, but this comparison was based on numbers and projections, not "the feels." I can certainly envision Syndergaard putting up some 5 or 6 WAR seasons, but right now the data say he's less (and maybe significantly) likely to do it than JBJ is. Personally I don't care what 92% of a small sample of players went on to do after an incredibly hot month. I definitely wouldn't project Bradley's value using that in any fashion.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2015 12:13:10 GMT -5
I think Speier himself would object to attempts to use his quick and dirty comparison to define Bradley's projected future offensive floor. Most of the guys on that list have always been elite hitters who then had a supernova month (as elite hitters are prone to doing). That's not where we're at with Bradley, who had really good minor league numbers, one terrible major league season, and now one supernova month.
|
|
|