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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
danr
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Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 23:24:58 GMT -5
In his last 22 games Bradley has hit .446 with 7 HRs and 13 2Bs.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 7, 2015 23:33:41 GMT -5
In his last 22 games Bradley has hit .446 with 7 HRs and 13 2Bs. It's been a while since I've seen somebody's hitting this outrageously hot. To say he's locked in is a remarkably gross understatement. It's more like white-hot-intensity-of-a-thousand-dying-suns hot. 24 XBH in 25 games, with something like 30 RBI. Good lord.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 8, 2015 0:48:58 GMT -5
In his last 22 games Bradley has hit .446 with 7 HRs and 13 2Bs. It's been a while since I've seen somebody's hitting this outrageously hot. To say he's locked in is a remarkably gross understatement. It's more like white-hot-intensity-of-a-thousand-dying-suns hot. 24 XBH in 25 games, with something like 30 RBI. Good lord. Batting 9th
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 8, 2015 0:55:15 GMT -5
I'm going to repost an updated version of that chart with the trajectories for a few of Bradley's rate stats tomorrow. The batting average for those balls in play is up to .387, and that's unsustainable. But it has been a lot of fun! Maybe we can use that to guesstimate where he might end up.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 8, 2015 3:33:56 GMT -5
In his last 22 games Bradley has hit .446 with 7 HRs and 13 2Bs. I dub JBJ "Black Babe"
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Post by bosox81 on Sept 8, 2015 6:12:46 GMT -5
Even if you are the strongest JBJ doubter and you chuck this recent hotness to SSS mirage, his career slash line is now at .223/.296/.360 with 13 SB in 691 PA. Nothing too sexy, but with that glove, that is a first-division starter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 8, 2015 7:09:54 GMT -5
To answer the question of this thread, no, his bat is too damn heavy!
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 8, 2015 7:50:06 GMT -5
I heard the Angels wanted JBJ instead of Victorino. I personally think Farrell gave up on him. I think Ben fights more for the young kids but maybe at one time Farrell maybe felt pressure and he didn't have the patience for the young kids to catch on.
All year some of the people on here were wondering why he wasn't getting a legitimate shot. Like last year with Xander that whole disaster. Actually when Hannigan was healthy again I felt they pushed Swihart back made up some phony injury to DL him. Farrell overused Hannigan and now Swihart's bat has finally caught on and he is unreal on the bases. I admit the catching I don't know the whole story but I never got the feeling Swihart was really hurt and it felt they were buying some time to figure it out.
2011 draft will go down in history. Did any other team benefit from that year? What a talented year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 8, 2015 8:34:12 GMT -5
Players need playing time, it's that simple.
Bradley needed playing time after he reworked his approach and road tested it with great success in AAA. Castillo needed playing time to clear out the cobwebs, he still does. Swihart needed and needs playing time to get better defensively and to acclimate to ML pitching, given his rapid ascent up the minor league food chain. Shaw needed playing time just to show he could, at the very least, be a major league option.
With the exception of Swihart, forced up to the major league level thanks to injury, none of them were able to show what they could do until the team completely tanked.
Victorino was in and out and in and out until he was traded. Napoli never came up for air all year long. Ramirez cost the team at least a few wins, hurting them and himself out in left field. Nava never found his stroke, it goes on and on.
On another team, those changes would probably have come earlier. That seems to be much harder to do in Boston, for whatever reason. Those changes have happened now, and none too soon. There was a non-zero probability that some of these guys would be gone, traded off before they ever had a chance to show what they could do.
I'd call that dodging a bullet.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2015 8:42:39 GMT -5
I am loving every second of this. I know he will (may?) come back to earth a bit but the OBP skills are very near what I hoped they'd be. The somewhat shorter path to the ball is giving him the doubles pop I always thought he'd have, but he is driving from the hips more than he did when I saw him a few times in AAA so if he can sustain this approach he may be a 25+ HR guy for a few years if he gets 550ABs per season.
Unless of course opponents just give up and IBB him every AB. Which seems reasonable at this point. (I kiiiiiiiiiiiid in this last paragraph to you who are immune to sarcasm).
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 8, 2015 8:45:29 GMT -5
It's been a while since I've seen somebody's hitting this outrageously hot. To say he's locked in is a remarkably gross understatement. It's more like white-hot-intensity-of-a-thousand-dying-suns hot. 24 XBH in 25 games, with something like 30 RBI. Good lord. Batting 9th Don't forget the team is not making the playoffs this year, so everything going forward is about next season. He's doing well so why mess with him AND the ninth batter precedes the #1 batter about 3 times a game. You do not want you worst batter in the lineup batting ninth. In fact among the bottom third of the order I think it's preferred to have the best of those three batting ninth. Next year's line up is going to be very interesting, Making the huge assumption that there is no trades (not bloody likely) One quick guess at the batting order could be 1.Betts (R), 2.JBJ (L), 3.Xander (R), 4.Ortiz (L), 5.HRam (S), 6.Pedey (R), 7.Panda (L), 8.Vasquez (R), 9.Castillo (R). The only problem is the 3 righties in a row from batters 8, 9 & 1. JBJ surely is on a hot streak however this is not all smoke & mirrors. I think he'd be a very good #1 or #2 batter going forward. The power more than anything is something not likely to continue. His ability, in MILB, to draw a walk and control the strike zone has been what has made me hold out hope he'd figure this, MLB, out, for if he bats .250 then his OBP will likely be around .350 and in the new era of league average OBP being around .315 that is a very valuable bat to go along with out of this world defense.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 8, 2015 8:54:58 GMT -5
Players need playing time, it's that simple. Bradley needed playing time after he reworked his approach and road tested it with great success in AAA. Castillo needed playing time to clear out the cobwebs, he still does. Swihart needed and needs playing time to get better defensively and to acclimate to ML pitching, given his rapid ascent up the minor league food chain. Shaw needed playing time just to show he could, at the very least, be a major league option. With the exception of Swihart, forced up to the major league level thanks to injury, none of them were able to show what they could do until the team completely tanked. Victorino was in and out and in and out until he was traded. Napoli never came up for air all year long. Ramirez cost the team at least a few wins, hurting them and himself out in left field. Nava never found his stroke, it goes on and on. On another team, those changes would probably have come earlier. That seems to be much harder to do in Boston, for whatever reason. Those changes have happened now, and none too soon. There was a non-zero probability that some of these guys would be gone, traded off before they ever had a chance to show what they could do. I'd call that dodging a bullet. The odd thing is that this may have cost BC his job. He wants to build from the farm and the farm is starting to show its worth now (as soon as the decision was made not to come back) with all the kids beginning to show their abilities. This same team next year would be better than this years team. Don't get me wrong we still need an ace and a few/several bullpen pieces to give us all the warm fuzzies going into next year.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 8, 2015 9:37:01 GMT -5
Players need playing time, it's that simple. [...] Nava never found his stroke Well, yeah.
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 8, 2015 9:49:07 GMT -5
I heard the Angels wanted JBJ instead of Victorino. I personally think Farrell gave up on him. I think Ben fights more for the young kids but maybe at one time Farrell maybe felt pressure and he didn't have the patience for the young kids to catch on. All year some of the people on here were wondering why he wasn't getting a legitimate shot. Like last year with Xander that whole disaster. Actually when Hannigan was healthy again I felt they pushed Swihart back made up some phony injury to DL him. Farrell overused Hannigan and now Swihart's bat has finally caught on and he is unreal on the bases. I admit the catching I don't know the whole story but I never got the feeling Swihart was really hurt and it felt they were buying some time to figure it out. 2011 draft will go down in history. Did any other team benefit from that year? What a talented year. Sounds like Moneyball
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 8, 2015 10:33:41 GMT -5
Don't forget the team is not making the playoffs this year, so everything going forward is about next season. He's doing well so why mess with him AND the ninth batter precedes the #1 batter about 3 times a game. You do not want you worst batter in the lineup batting ninth. In fact among the bottom third of the order I think it's preferred to have the best of those three batting ninth. Next year's line up is going to be very interesting, Making the huge assumption that there is no trades (not bloody likely) One quick guess at the batting order could be 1.Betts (R), 2.JBJ (L), 3.Xander (R), 4.Ortiz (L), 5.HRam (S), 6.Pedey (R), 7.Panda (L), 8.Vasquez (R), 9.Castillo (R). The only problem is the 3 righties in a row from batters 8, 9 & 1. JBJ surely is on a hot streak however this is not all smoke & mirrors. I think he'd be a very good #1 or #2 batter going forward. The power more than anything is something not likely to continue. His ability, in MILB, to draw a walk and control the strike zone has been what has made me hold out hope he'd figure this, MLB, out, for if he bats .250 then his OBP will likely be around .350 and in the new era of league average OBP being around .315 that is a very valuable bat to go along with out of this world defense. So just figure Vazquez will be on rehab at the beginning of next year, bat Castillo 8 and put Swihart (s) #9. Fixed.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 8, 2015 10:41:40 GMT -5
That's a lefty and a switch hitter 8 & 9 followed by several RHB. Closer, but still not perfect.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 8, 2015 10:42:35 GMT -5
Sorry, saw Castillo, read Betts. My bad.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 8, 2015 10:44:12 GMT -5
Focus! Saw Castllo, read Bradley. Castillo would follow Panda, who is likely still around and might better hit at #7 than #2, hot or not.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2015 14:30:45 GMT -5
MLB wRC+ leaders, minimum 160 PA:
198 Harper 177 Votto 177 Cabrera 171 Bradley, Jr. 169 Cruz 168 Trout
He's "only" 13th in TAv, though -- BP appears to be using a much steeper park factor, 109, than FanGraphs, as evidenced by the fact that Stanton (91 BFP) and D'Arnaud (92) are 3rd and 5th in TAv but are 13th and 11th in wRC+.
As a matter of fact, the FG correlation between wOBA (which isn't park adjusted) and wRC+ (which is) is so strong that it suggests that, for some reason, their park adjustments are really small.
Boy, if I were BP I'd be pissed that everyone cites wRC+ as gospel when TAv is older and sure seems to be more accurate. Bradley as sandwiched between Schwarber and Sano passes the smell test better than between Cabrera and Trout. I've seen a lot of lists of hitters ranked both before and after adjusting for park, and BP's looks like all the others and FG's doesn't.
Now, the joker in this deck is that Bradley had a 22 wRC+ in his first 71 PA and a 288 in his last 90. That's still hard to wrap your head around.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 8, 2015 17:47:08 GMT -5
Here's the latest chart for Bradley's rise from the ashes. And what a trip it's been. Just off the top of my head, I've marked out where I think Bradley's true talent level probably resides. Beyond that is terra incognita, a place few ballplayers visit and where no one stays for very long. His BABIP is now up to .387 and his OPS has tracked right along with that. Everything else looks fairly normal, though the OBP is drifting down a little. Of course when you're as hot as Bradley has been, why wouldn't you swing at any pitch in the strike zone? He's still taking walks, but they're thinly distributed, embedded in what seems an endless string of extra-base hits. Others have pointed out that this should change once pitchers become reluctant to pitch him inside. I think we'll see that - he's always had excellent plate discipline. The gameplan will have to change for the opposition. Given what he's been doing to inside stuff, it comes uncomfortably close to that definition of madness, the one about doing the same thing and expecting different results. The encouraging part is that he's actually spraying - and launching - liners everywhere. He's tracking stuff so well, you can tell what part of the plate the pitch was in from where on (or out of) the field it ends up. The HR yesterday was to left, there was one single to left-center and one to right, and then that ground-rule double into the rightfield corner. All of them were laced. That's been a hallmark of this hot streak. He's hitting everything on the screws with a line-drive rate that's drifted up to 24% from his career norm of about 20%. Given his history in the minors, and what we see on this chart, when he leveled out for about two weeks, I think an OPS in the range of .840-850 is not unrealistic. That actually makes him more than adequate as a corner outfielder. Add in the defense and you've got a starter on an upper-division team I believe. Maybe even the Red Sox, if they roll this offensive explosion into next season (click to expand):
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 8, 2015 18:12:57 GMT -5
Boy, if I were BP I'd be pissed that everyone cites wRC+ as gospel when TAv is older and sure seems to be more accurate. Well, too bad. I have no interest in figuring out what levels of a worthless stat like BA are poor, average or good; a stat normalized to 100 average is just so much easier to deal with.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 9, 2015 14:49:11 GMT -5
Seems like everyone is ruling out selling high on Bradley this offseason. I think it's worth considering.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 9, 2015 14:57:25 GMT -5
Seems like everyone is ruling out selling high on Bradley this offseason. I think it's worth considering. As it is in all trades it depends what "high" is. Something I'd be very interested in knowing.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 9, 2015 15:13:33 GMT -5
Seems like everyone is ruling out selling high on Bradley this offseason. I think it's worth considering. www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/newsletter/108-stitches-newsletterPosting in entirety because it will only stay for today. If everything goes like history has shown, JBJ will have at least a career 100 OPS+ which probably makes him around a 4 win player minimum due to his defense. So that's where we're starting if you even think about trading him.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 9, 2015 15:14:47 GMT -5
Just wondering, does anyone think we need to change the name of this thread? - Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the bat outweigh the glove?
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