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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2015 16:56:36 GMT -5
From those who have watched him play - how are Bradley's reads of the ball off the bat from CF as opposed to LF/RF? Some OFers say that CF is the easiest of the positions because you are up the middle and can react left/right more easily with fewer issues of the ball seeming to curve in flight.
As Betts has always played up the middle, I'm not 100% confident that his defense will be as good, or better, in LF.
Having seen guys like Ichiro, Crawford, Gardner and Heyward excel in the corners, I don't feel it's necessary for Bradley to play CF unless he's much better there than elsewhere. A smart manager can always shift his OFers to allow the best one to be able to cover the most ground.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 27, 2015 17:03:37 GMT -5
From those who have watched him play - how are Bradley's reads of the ball off the bat from CF as opposed to LF/RF? Some OFers say that CF is the easiest of the positions because you are up the middle and can react left/right more easily with fewer issues of the ball seeming to curve in flight. As Betts has always played up the middle, I'm not 100% confident that his defense will be as good, or better, in LF. Having seen guys like Ichiro, Crawford, Gardner and Heyward excel in the corners, I don't feel it's necessary for Bradley to play CF unless he's much better there than elsewhere. A smart manager can always shift his OFers to allow the best one to be able to cover the most ground. Very good in right, not too good in LF
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 6, 2015 23:11:01 GMT -5
Obviously, what JBJ has done in MLB has been incredible. A little of that is that Fenway has been a huge hitter's park this year. Coming into today, he ranked 7th in MLB in RC/27 (minimum 150 PA), but "just" 22nd in TAv with .316 TAv. 22nd out of 358 players.
He has probably benefited from being locked-in since his recall and perhaps from pitchers trying to figure out how to pitch to him. But as I liked to point out, he had essentially been the best 25-and-under hitter in the minors when we finally called him up for good.
Clay Davenport's MLE system may be a bit generous, but it has his career with the following age-adjusted MLE EqA / TAv:
.304, .274, .204, .308. You get .304 as his figure for this year without an age adjustment.
The worst you can make of this is to weight this year 5 and two years ago 3, and that gives you .294 (using this year actual) or .295 (with age-adjustment). Clay's leader board for CF this year:
.333 Trout .326 McCutchen .305 Pollock .303 Cain .286 Fowler
I've been messing around with my own MLE system, even though the data is based on pitchers, not hitters, and I thought there would be a significant difference between him and me, but he has Bradley in AAA at .296 and (starting from the RC/27 reported here) I'm something like .294, although there are a ton of assumptions. Basically, I don't see a reason to discount his version enough to change the conclusions.
As Pollock and Cain are great fielders themselves, I think it's fair to see he's in the conversation for best CF in the game after the obvious two, but is currently probably just a top 5 talent. Not shabby.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 7, 2015 0:18:13 GMT -5
Most impressive to me, even more than hitting room service fastballs into the center field bleachers, have been the shots down the right field line off the inside stuff for doubles and triples. The book on him said that was his weakness and, probably because of the timing changes, it isn't.
He's also shown that he can tattoo the leftfield wall on pitches outside when he's prepared for them. So the toolkit is in place to make life difficult for pitchers. He'll be especially dangerous at Fenway.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 7, 2015 1:19:02 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr - does the bat outweigh the glove?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 7, 2015 6:38:24 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr - does the bat outweigh the glove? Ha! Since Boras is his agent, and he's gonna demand big bucks. Should we deal him for Harvey this off-season?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 7, 2015 9:12:31 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr - does the bat outweigh the glove? Ha! Since Boras is his agent, and he's gonna demand big bucks. Should we deal him for Harvey this off-season? I'm sure Boras, for one, would approve, since he's also Harvey's agent!
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 7, 2015 10:37:24 GMT -5
Most impressive to me, even more than hitting room service fastballs into the center field bleachers, have been the shots down the right field line off the inside stuff for doubles and triples. The book on him said that was his weakness and, probably because of the timing changes, it isn't. He's also shown that he can tattoo the leftfield wall on pitches outside when he's prepared for them. So the toolkit is in place to make life difficult for pitchers. He'll be especially dangerous at Fenway. They're going to start feeding him nothing but junk. He's going to start walking even more I bet.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 7, 2015 10:56:48 GMT -5
Next year I want to see him cut the Ks down closer to 20% as the power regresses. He has a solid eye and as he gets less to hit he should walk even more.
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Post by kman22 on Sept 7, 2015 10:58:12 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr - does the bat outweigh the glove? Ha! Since Boras is his agent, and he's gonna demand big bucks. Should we deal him for Harvey this off-season? What a buzz kill.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 7, 2015 13:31:22 GMT -5
What is Bradleys value right now??? would you trade him and Devers for sale or Gray???
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Sept 7, 2015 13:32:25 GMT -5
What is Bradleys value right now??? would you trade him and Devers for sale or Gray??? No, because then we would open a hole in the outfield. We just solved this problem after a miserable 1.5 years, I don't want to solve the SP issue by creating another problem. Also, it would likely take a lot more for Sale or Gray, since no GM in his right mind believes that JBJ is close to the player he has been over the past two months (edit: Thanks to jimed for the fix). Though I personally want to believe this is who JBJ is. If it is, then there's no way I trade him for those guys because position players are inherently less risky than pitchers and he's a top 5 player in baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 7, 2015 14:34:33 GMT -5
What is Bradleys value right now??? would you trade him and Devers for sale or Gray??? No, because then we would open a hole in the outfield. We just solved this problem after a miserable 1.5 years, I don't want to solve the SP issue by creating another problem. Also, it would likely take a lot more for Sale or Gray, since no GM in his right mind believes that JBJ is close to the player he has been over the past month. Two months...
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 7, 2015 15:03:42 GMT -5
No, because then we would open a hole in the outfield. We just solved this problem after a miserable 1.5 years, I don't want to solve the SP issue by creating another problem. Also, it would likely take a lot more for Sale or Gray, since no GM in his right mind believes that JBJ is close to the player he has been over the past month. Two months... Some of me wants to think that JBJ is not for real but he just keeps doing it. Since the allstart break he is 15th in WAR (2.2) in 10-15 less games then everybody else. With a .336 AVG. .1102 OPS. This dose not include today's outing. Also consider he played a lot if LF in there and had he been in CF woulda compiled more value aswell. In the last 30 days he is number 1 in WAR.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 7, 2015 16:23:49 GMT -5
So it's kind of funny how player development works, eh? Three months ago people would have justified it had the Sox dumped Bradley for very little in return. Basically, opening a spot on the 40 man would have been good enough. Now after two incredibly hot months some aren't willing to or are hesitant to deal him for Sonny Gray.
If a players value is high, no one wants to move him because of what he could be and if he's struggling then he's worthless and just won't hack it. Remember when players used to struggle and be given a chance to work it out and adjust? These things could sometimes take a couple seasons. This is what has happened with Bradley and kudos for him for staying humble and working hard and making adjustments.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 7, 2015 16:25:01 GMT -5
So it's kind of funny how player development works, eh? Three months ago people would have justified it had the Sox dumped Bradley for very little in return. Basically, opening a spot on the 40 man would have been good enough. Now after two incredibly hot months some aren't willing to or are hesitant to deal him for Sonny Gray. If a players value is high, no one wants to move him because of what he could be and if he's struggling then he's worthless and just won't hack it. Remember when players used to struggle and be given a chance to work it out and adjust? These things could sometimes take a couple seasons. This is what has happened with Bradley and kudos for him for staying humble and working hard and making adjustments. This is what I've wanted all along. I don't mind dumping WMB for nothing if we get a JBJ out of it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2015 16:27:23 GMT -5
So it's kind of funny how player development works, eh? Three months ago people would have justified it had the Sox dumped Bradley for very little in return. Basically, opening a spot on the 40 man would have been good enough. Now after two incredibly hot months some aren't willing to or are hesitant to deal him for Sonny Gray. If a players value is high, no one wants to move him because of what he could be and if he's struggling then he's worthless and just won't hack it. Remember when players used to struggle and be given a chance to work it out and adjust? These things could sometimes take a couple seasons. This is what has happened with Bradley and kudos for him for staying humble and working hard and making adjustments. No, three months ago JBJ was one of the two or three best hitters in all of the minors and lots of people, probably a majority of people here, wanted to give him an MLB shot. The two times he got one people complained mightily and correctly that he hadn't been given a fair shot. Now, if by "people" you mean Cafardo and the CHB, that's a correct point, but not an illuminating one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2015 16:31:47 GMT -5
What is Bradleys value right now??? would you trade him and Devers for sale or Gray??? IMHO, he is one of seven or eight untouchable players. Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Vazquez, Moncada, Espinoza, Benintendi, and maybe Devers.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 7, 2015 16:49:19 GMT -5
What is Bradleys value right now??? would you trade him and Devers for sale or Gray??? IMHO, he is one of seven or eight untouchable players. Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Vazquez, Moncada, Espinoza, Benintendi, and maybe Devers. I'd still trade him and Devers for Sale.
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Post by tizzle on Sept 7, 2015 17:00:58 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr - does the bat outweigh the glove? At this point it seems to.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 7, 2015 18:36:49 GMT -5
I was of the opinion that JBJ should play CF regularly since that is his natural position and he has excelled there. But Mookie is good too, maybe not quite as spectacular as Bradley, but spectacular enough.
After attending this afternoon's matinee vs Toronto and watching Rusney field two rockets off the wall on the fly and swing around for an accurate throw to the cut off man, I'm leaning to keeping the OF as it is now configured. I noted that Castillo had taken lots of balls off the wall from Beyeler in pre-games, and am impressed with his ability as well as his willingness to learn.
Jackie has the arm for RF and, with his speed, covers Fenway's wide area with easy effort.
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Post by kman22 on Sept 7, 2015 21:50:25 GMT -5
I was of the opinion that JBJ should play CF regularly since that is his natural position and he has excelled there. But Mookie is good too, maybe not quite as spectacular as Bradley, but spectacular enough. After attending this afternoon's matinee vs Toronto and watching Rusney field two rockets off the wall on the fly and swing around for an accurate throw to the cut off man, I'm leaning to keeping the OF as it is now configured. I noted that Castillo had taken lots of balls off the wall from Beyeler in pre-games, and am impressed with his ability as well as his willingness to learn. Jackie has the arm for RF and, with his speed, covers Fenway's wide area with easy effort. That one liner today that he held to a single was really impressive.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 7, 2015 22:19:54 GMT -5
I think Rusney's found his home in left field. While he's plenty athletic enough to play all three spots, he's just too inconsistent to be trusted in Fenway's cavernous right field, or in a position as critical as center. Still, his range and arm will be plenty above average in any left field, and he's shown a great inclination so in his limited chances fielding balls off the monster. This has a chance to be as good a a defensive outfield as any in baseball next season -- and hey, we've been a +8 DRS OF in 2015 (8th in MLB) despite dealing with a -19 from Hanley. Also let's not forgot that Brock Holt has been a surprisingly exceptional corner outfielder these last two seasons, and I'd expect him to get a fair amount of time in left next season if Rusney struggles.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2015 22:54:15 GMT -5
I think Rusney's found his home in left field. While he's plenty athletic enough to play all three spots, he's just too inconsistent to be trusted in Fenway's cavernous right field, or in a position as critical as center. Still, his range and arm will be plenty above average in any left field, and he's shown a great inclination so in his limited chances fielding balls off the monster. This has a chance to be as good a a defensive outfield as any in baseball next season -- and hey, we've been a +8 DRS OF in 2015 (8th in MLB) despite dealing with a -19 from Hanley. Also let's not forgot that Brock Holt has been a surprisingly exceptional corner outfielder these last two seasons, and I'd expect him to get a fair amount of time in left next season if Rusney struggles. I'm coming around to the notion that this may well be the best alignment for Fenway. Mostly because Rusney seems to be taking better to the oddities of Fenway's LF than he has to RF, but also for a new reason that I'm about to mention. The best road alignment, however, is still Betts, Bradley, Castillo, and that seems more obvious, and to a larger degree. And that's not just because the arms play much better that way. JBJ's great strength in CF is getting perfect reads and running perfect routes, while Mookie's not in his league with either, but closes much of the gap with better speed. In Fenway, where both guys are playing on familiar turf, and picking up the ball against a constant, familiar background, the defensive difference in CF is minimized (another reason to like the Rusney-Mookie-JBJ alignment). Go on the road, though, and JBJ's strengths play up, making him a significantly better defender in CF. I bet that if you hunted down the highlights of all of Mookie's great plays (especially going back), a larger share would be at home, as compared to JBJ's. So I still think the better overall alignment is Betts / Bradley / Castillo. But if you could swap them home / road without making their collective brains burst, that would be ideal. Kind of revolutionary, too. It would mess up b-Ref's position listing big-time, for instance.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 7, 2015 23:18:47 GMT -5
I think Rusney's found his home in left field. While he's plenty athletic enough to play all three spots, he's just too inconsistent to be trusted in Fenway's cavernous right field, or in a position as critical as center. Still, his range and arm will be plenty above average in any left field, and he's shown a great inclination so in his limited chances fielding balls off the monster. This has a chance to be as good a a defensive outfield as any in baseball next season -- and hey, we've been a +8 DRS OF in 2015 (8th in MLB) despite dealing with a -19 from Hanley. Also let's not forgot that Brock Holt has been a surprisingly exceptional corner outfielder these last two seasons, and I'd expect him to get a fair amount of time in left next season if Rusney struggles. I'm coming around to the notion that this may well be the best alignment for Fenway. Mostly because Rusney seems to be taking better to the oddities of Fenway's LF than he has to RF, but also for a new reason that I'm about to mention. The best road alignment, however, is still Betts, Bradley, Castillo, and that seems more obvious, and to a larger degree. And that's not just because the arms play much better that way. JBJ's great strength in CF is getting perfect reads and running perfect routes, while Mookie's not in his league with either, but closes much of the gap with better speed. In Fenway, where both guys are playing on familiar turf, and picking up the ball against a constant, familiar background, the defensive difference in CF is minimized (another reason to like the Rusney-Mookie-JBJ alignment). Go on the road, though, and JBJ's strengths play up, making him a significantly better defender in CF. I bet that if you hunted down the highlights of all of Mookie's great plays (especially going back), a larger share would be at home, as compared to JBJ's. So I still think the better overall alignment is Betts / Bradley / Castillo. But if you could swap them home / road without making their collective brains burst, that would be ideal. Kind of revolutionary, too. It would mess up b-Ref's position listing big-time, for instance. Yeah, I think there's a near universal consensus (or at least there should be) that in a perfectly symmetrical ballpark, the Betts-Bradley-Castillo alignment would be the way to go. I've always been a huge advocate for shuffling an outfield to fit the ballpark, and many managers wisely do that, but Farrell/Lovullo seem heavily opposed. Oddly, Farrell was in favor of such tactics at the beginning of 2013, when he said Victorino would play LF at Yankee stadium (never happened due to injury), but he actually did something of that sort briefly by playing Carp and Gomes in RF (with Nava in LF) for a series in New York. Next time we went there though, he abandoned that strategy and never looked back. Lovullo has indicated such shuffling won't happen, although I guess that could change depending on who's managing the club next season. My expectation is that an alignment will be set in stone in spring training, similar to what happened this year in the spring with Mookie and Rusney (funny now, but a lot of people viewed the likely alignment as Rusney in CF and Mookie in RF). If I have to choose one alignment to use all season regardless of the park, I think you have to go with JBJ in center. As you note, his perfect reads and routes are what distinguishes him there, not his speed, and he has looked visibly worse at times at reading and chasing balls in the corners, not that he isn't still elite there. Add: Was a tad surprised to see 1/3 of Mookie's positive DRS and UZR value this year is coming from his arm. With solid but far from spectacular arm strength combined with the ability to charge well and throw accurately, I wonder if his arm will be a bit more decent in right than the noodle some are assuming it will be.
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