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2014 Non-Red Sox Minor League Thread
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Post by charliezink16 on Mar 16, 2014 1:30:30 GMT -5
Julio Urias, the 17 year old Dodgers southpaw prospect started their ST game today and tossed a scoreless inning. I have to say that I'm surprised at how little buzz he gets in the prospect community. I know BP had him ranked at #35 which I assume was heavily influenced by Jason Parks'#want for him. Outside of Parks and BP, there seems to be little buzz around him, or less than he probably deserves. Maybe some don't see a star player in the future, just one who's fast tracked to the MLB, but the feat of reaching the majors by 19 would be pretty remarkable. Only two other international pitchers have reached the majors by age 19 since 1990; Felix Hernandez (in '05), and...Rich Garces in 1990. Urias is talking up his game and saying he can reach the majors this season, as a 17 year old, which doesn't seem likely. Regardless, there's no reason to believe he can't make the majors w/ in the next 2-3 seasons, and that screams top prospect to me. Am I wrong in saying this?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 16, 2014 1:39:53 GMT -5
The high rankings have been relative to his age and he is getting notice in other lists, most notably Keith Law.
There doesn't seem to be anybody saying that he looks like a potential #1, just seems like people saying highly advanced for his age (as his stats indicate). If he doesn't have evaluators tagging him as a future #1, there's pretty much zero chance he will be the number one prospect even if he made the majors at 17.
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Post by jmei on Mar 16, 2014 10:45:39 GMT -5
Here's the thing about Urias: he's crazy age-advanced, but his present stuff is merely good but not great. He's got two very advanced offspeed pitches and terrific fastball command for his age, as well as excellent pitchability, but I don't think any individual pitch comes close to being plus-plus and his present velocity is good but not great. Moreover, he's not super projectable, as he's kind of a small guy (5'11") who doesn't look like he's going to grow much more. Combine that with the fact that he's still a few years away from the majors (pitched in A ball last year) and only averaged 3 IP per start (his stints were closer to relief outings than true starts-- hitters only saw him once and he could air it out knowing he's only going a few innings; it's unclear whether his stuff would hold for longer outings, especially since he's a smaller guy anyways), and I think it's reasonable to rank him in that second or third tier of guys rather than putting him in the top 10. He will certainly jump up next year if he continues to succeed at higher levels and throws more innings.
FWIW, Keith Law has him 14th, BA has him 51st, BP has him 31st, so I wouldn't say there's no buzz about him.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 16, 2014 10:58:48 GMT -5
I love him. The short appearances don't give me any pause at all. Most of his classmates in the 2012 signing period were pitching with similar innings restrictions, but doing it in the DSL. He apparently added four mph to his peak fastball over the course of the season, just by refining his mechanics. If he can touch 95, with his offspeed stuff and his pitchability, then he can be an ace.
I don't think he'll ever be a top 5 prospect, for a couple of reasons. One, because there will always be pitchers who are highly polished with a dynamite two-pitch combo making their downside an elite closer - think Jonathan Gray, for instance. Another is that the Dodgers are being aggressive with him - at an age where most people are in short season ball where he'd put up video game numbers, he'll start in Double-A. A great statistical season this year may nudge him into some Top-10s, and make his ETA 2015. He'll lose prospect status quickly, but he'll be appearing on 25-and-under lists until 2021.
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Post by templeusox on Mar 16, 2014 11:06:34 GMT -5
After the game, Urias said he's now 6'1" and supposed to grow to be 6'3".
So yeah. Teenagers.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 16, 2014 11:48:43 GMT -5
Every once in a while, someone of this calibre shows up. The book on him is amazing since he is just a kid. I don't know that a lot of the sites that cover MLB have much of a framework for projecting a 17 year-old who may be pitching in AA this year. BP on the other hand does. They've got a subtle but clear write-up on Urias, and the fact that he was touching 97 by season's end. The potential seems limitless at this point. For the Dodgers, it's hard to imagine a prospect with more lustre. There are iron-clad cultural ties to Mexico not just for current residents, but going back hundreds of years to De Anza, his expeditions, and the development of the Missions in old Spanish California. This guy would pack Chavez Ravine if and when he makes it. Just what a team with all the money in the world needs!
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Post by jmei on Mar 16, 2014 12:03:32 GMT -5
After the game, Urias said he's now 6'1" and supposed to grow to be 6'3". So yeah. Teenagers. Wow, didn't know that. If he's still growing and adding velocity, the sky's the limit.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 16, 2014 19:37:42 GMT -5
He's 17 it wouldn't be a shock if he were growing, most probably are at that age. However, the "supposed to be" comment is hilarious.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 16, 2014 19:54:13 GMT -5
He's 17 it wouldn't be a shock if he were growing, most probably are at that age. However, the "supposed to be" comment is hilarious. Why? The pediatrician who measured our son during his childhood told us he would grow to 6'2" and that's where he ended up. You don't think they have pediatricians in Mexico?
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 17, 2014 8:18:03 GMT -5
Really Norm? The odds of your pediatrician hitting the exact height aren't very high and the fact he/she did doesn't mean much. Can you predict a child's height range with decent accuracy? Sure (depending on your definition of decent), but by saying 6'2 for your son, what they were really saying was odds are he will be between 5'10 and 6'6.
Regardless of all that, it's just funny to hear a kid say how tall he's "supposed to be", like if it doesn't happen something went awry.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 17, 2014 10:02:22 GMT -5
Really Norm? The odds of your pediatrician hitting the exact height aren't very high and the fact he/she did doesn't mean much. Can you predict a child's height range with decent accuracy? Sure (depending on your definition of decent), but by saying 6'2 for your son, what they were really saying was odds are he will be between 5'10 and 6'6. Regardless of all that, it's just funny to hear a kid say how tall he's "supposed to be", like if it doesn't happen something went awry. The last part of that statement is pure conjecture. Let me give you my conjecture. He meant that he was supposed to be 6'3" once he reaches his 20s. He's 17.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 17, 2014 10:14:06 GMT -5
My pediatrician gave my brother and I predictions at age 8 or 9, and then adjusted my brother's an inch lower when he started growing early. I hit the early guesstimate within a half inch, and my brother hit his later target exactly. By looking at growth patterns, nutrition, xrays and family history, doctors can get pretty damn good guesstimates with this stuff. It's still a guess, but it's not an outlandish one.
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