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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 23, 2014 17:52:12 GMT -5
I don't like plain list with just a bunch of names on it...I also don't feel like writing up 40 guys but I do have some thoughts on some guys so here it is:
Margot: I'm really excited about him. I like it when athletic guys show aptitude at a young age. He could be a really exciting player who can do a little bit of everything on the field.
Devers: it sounds like this kid has a big bat. I hope he can work on the other side of the ball to lessen some of the pressure on the bat but it sounds like it may not matter. Way too early to know that I know.
Callahan: I liked him when he was drafted because of his youth. We may be seeing some of the advantage of that as reports from spring training suggest a bump on his stuff. Really looking forward to his full season.
Kukuk: I know he had that incident which basically cost him his first full season. Last year he had extreme control problems but he was very difficult to hit. I'm hoping for better control this year, with his stuff that would be dynamite.
Victor Acosta: I really like when lower bonus players open some eyes. It's been said many times but the Red Sox Dominican academy is very difficult to hit in and he hit the most HR by Red Sox prospects since Baseball-Reference has been tracking DSL stats. He is not overly strong so he seems to generate his power from his bat speed. Really intrigued to see how he performs state side.
Gerson Bautista: I put him on the back of the list because really just throwing names out there to see if I look smart. But seriously I was intrigued by what Ben Badler reported, mid 90s heat and workable off speed. Usually in Latin America the less heralded prospects turnout to be very good.
So that's some guys I felt I wanted to write up. I hope you guys do the same!!!!
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 25, 2014 19:28:27 GMT -5
I really don't know what to do with Owens. Results are great, but is the scouting really all that good. Velocity is so so, not good for a top tier starter. Command is poor, which is a big red flag. Curve is a big slow curve, which typically doesn't play well in MLB. Without a big fastball, what's his floor as a pitcher? A guy like Barnes or Webster or even Workman, we can project to a late inning bullpen role. Can we do the same with Owens?
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Post by jmei on Mar 26, 2014 13:45:30 GMT -5
Great thread (after taking a look at my list again, I immediately went back and made some changes). Here are my scattered thoughts:
-I am really irrationally excited about Devers. I had him above Margot, which in retrospect is pretty silly because Margot is probably going to be an above-average defensive CF while Devers is more likely than not going to have to move to 1B, where his bat needs to be truly elite to keep up. But man, Devers sounds like a guy who could have a monster bat, with the ability to hit for average, get on base, and hit for power.
-Are we collectively underrating Daniel Butler? Pretty much everyone has him in the 25-35 range, but he's a lock to be an MLB player, he's got solid-to-better defense, and the offensive threshold at catcher isn't very high. With the caveat that he's scouted a lot worse than he's produced in the minors, the projection systems love him-- the average of Steamer/Oliver/ZiPS projections have him at a whopping 2.1 wins per 600 PAs. If he's even half that good, he'll produce way more expected value at the MLB level than almost all of the other prospects around him. I imagine what bumps him down for most folks is some combination of a low ceiling and the fact that he won't play much for Boston (Vazquez probably jumps him on the depth chart as soon as midseason), but if we're strictly judging guys on expected value at the MLB level regardless of what organization he produces it for, I think he jumps up to the teens, if not higher.
-I have the same concerns as rjp with Owens. He needs to improve his command significantly to reach his ceiling, and I'm not sure he does it. I do think his floor is a back-end MLB starting pitcher, though-- think a worse version of Felix Doubront-- and so I still have him as the best SP prospect in the system.
-Henry Ramos is my breakout guy this year. He's improved every year he's been in the system, and if he starts hitting for power (I remember reports that he looks stronger this spring), he could have a breakout year. The fact that he doesn't play CF and hurts his ceiling, though, and he still strikes out a little much. One funny thing I noticed while looking up his stats-- he had 11 SB but 12 CS last year, and 12 SB/10 CS the year before. He should stop trying to steal bases-- that's as bad a success rate as I can remember in the system.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 26, 2014 14:22:36 GMT -5
I watched all of Devers' Youtube videos and I swear his swing looks like Ken Griffey Jr's. OK, maybe Cano's. I even did side by side's.
I honestly don't know about Owens. His fastball must be really deceptive like Koji's. I need to see him more to get why his #'s are so good.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 26, 2014 16:44:36 GMT -5
Couldn't agree more on Butler, Owens and Ramos. I also think we're overrating Swihart and underrating Vasquez. I may adjust that further on my list.
Tough to leave Wright and Denney off my list; definitely guys who would have made it if they were playing.
Also agree with Pedro on Callahan and Kukuk (partly from the write-up).
In general, I've soured on our upper level pitching prospects, as they seem to be spinning their wheels, but I'm much more excited about the lower minors depth at that position than I was a few weeks ago.
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Post by jmei on Mar 26, 2014 17:24:24 GMT -5
Yeah, Wright was another one of those guys that I really should have on my top 40, but there were too many interesting names on the low minors to really fit him in. The Swihart/Vazquez dynamic is an interesting one, but I think the key difference for me is that Swihart has much more upside. He cut his strikeout rate last year while increasing his walk rate, and I think there's real untapped power potential there. Swihart, unlike Cecchini, is a fly ball hitter, and as he gets stronger, I'm confident that some of his 36 doubles/triples from 2013 are going to start going over the fence. I know the comparison is trite and unrealistic, but I really do think Swihart has Buster Posey-lite upside, especially with his defensive improvements last year. That is to say, an above-average defensive catcher who can hit in the middle of a lineup-- maybe Miguel Montero or a worse-framing Jonathon Lucroy might be a more realistic comp. I also like Vazquez, but think his lack of bat speed and power potential limits his upside some. He should be very good-to-elite defensively, but I'm not sure the bat is ever going to be much more than above-average for a catcher (think a ceiling of A.J. Ellis or Russell Martin, with a realistic projection of Ryan Hanigan). That's still a super valuable player (a clear starter-caliber guy, for instance), and one that maybe should be ranked higher than the Webster/Barnes-type guys, but it's a clear step down from Swihart for me. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2014 18:58:27 GMT -5
Not sure how you guys feel, but after the top 20 or so, I just kind of throw my hands up and start listing guys. In a good way.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 26, 2014 19:19:10 GMT -5
My darts usually land on the Latin guys  I agree that the lower part of the top 40 is littered with interesting guys. I actually feel Swihart is a bit underrated, at least in the general prospect community. That may be because I feel like the power will come, he has shown strong signs. We'll see this year. The thing that put my hope on Owens is that his fast ball may be better than his gun readings. I believe JJ Cooper from BA has referenced a short burst he saw where Owens threw only fastball and hitters couldn't hit. I forget the exact quote right now but I'm pretty sure it was Cooper. Obviously he'll need to command it better but there is something to be said for such tall pitchers, it may take a bit of time. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 27, 2014 8:31:06 GMT -5
I'm sure I'm under-rating Butler, I'm not done with my list yet and need to slot him somewhere, but is always ask myself this question: " who would I rather have in the system?"
This is where I rank Devers ahead or Margot without much hesitation. If we go off of who's likely to have better MLB production, then doesn't Butler have to actually rank before Devers? I get it's extreme and Margot has a much higher ceiling then Butler, but if nothing else,i need to see Margot perform above Lowell before, I'm ready to put his skill set over Devers. I rank Devers and Margot close, but side with Devers because his talents are so rare and valuable. I'd be devastated (prospect wise - not in real life so don't worry FTHW), if the system lost Devers - think RWM and just disappointed with losing Margot.
Back to butler, he's likely an MLB player, but likely a dime a dozen guy with no real chance of being more then that. Of course who was Josh Donaldson 2 years ago? Looked like a career AAAA catcher.
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Post by jmei on Mar 27, 2014 9:51:05 GMT -5
I'm sure I'm under-rating Butler, I'm not done with my list yet and need to slot him somewhere, but is always ask myself this question: " who would I rather have in the system?" This is where I rank Devers ahead or Margot without much hesitation. If we go off of who's likely to have better MLB production, then doesn't Butler have to actually rank before Devers? I get it's extreme and Margot has a much higher ceiling then Butler, but if nothing else,i need to see Margot perform above Lowell before, I'm ready to put his skill set over Devers. I rank Devers and Margot close, but side with Devers because his talents are so rare and valuable. I'd be devastated (prospect wise - not in real life so don't worry FTHW), if the system lost Devers - think RWM and just disappointed with losing Margot. Back to butler, he's likely an MLB player, but likely a dime a dozen guy with no real chance of being more then that. Of course who was Josh Donaldson 2 years ago? Looked like a career AAAA catcher. I started my ranking in a similar way, by thinking of the guys I'd most hate to lose (in a trade, etc). But the problem with using that question to set your rankings is that it considers certain factors which go against the ranking instructions. For instance, one main reason it's hard to rank Butler higher is that the Red Sox have two solid veteran catchers in the majors and two very good catching prospects in the high minors. But that implies that your prospect rankings would vary based on the organization's depth chart, which ideally shouldn't be the case. In a vacuum, I'm pretty confident that Butler would have an MLB career similar to that of, say, Bryce Brentz, with a higher floor but a lower ceiling, and so I ended up revising my list to move Butler just behind Brentz. Using expected MLB value to rank prospects, however, does not mean that Butler has to ranked above Devers/Margot. To estimate the expected value of a prospect, you basically look at all the possible outcomes for a prospect, multiply each by the probability he reaches that level, and add it all together. So while Butler is basically guaranteed to have positive expected value, Devers/Margot may nonetheless have a higher expected value if you think there's a small but significant chance that they become star-level players, which is basically how I think of it. To use an extremely oversimplified example, if I think Butler has a 100% chance of being a career four win player (EV=4), I can nonetheless rank him below a guy like Devers if I think Devers has a 5% chance of being a career thirty win player (EV=1.5) and another 30% chance of being a career ten win player (EV=3.3). |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 28, 2014 20:36:03 GMT -5
Yea that makes sense if there were any realistic way to put numbers on it that aren't virtually arbitrary. Devers carries more expected value to the major league team right now in trade value alone.
And the way I do my questioning, I ignore the other players at that prospects position, both in the majors and in the minors. It's more of an exercise to help figure things out. I'm about to slide Butler in my list, but I don't expect him to be a positive WAR guy in the majors.
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