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Sox Pitching Prospects in the Lower Minors (A - A+)
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 25, 2014 10:56:42 GMT -5
The Sox system has been noted for the depth of their pitching prospects in the upper minors. There are a number of guys that are close to be able to help the big league club either directly or indirectly via trade. However, in the off-season some have commented that the lower minors, while having some interesting arms, currently lack pitching prospects to get excited about. Well, spring games are underway, and maybe the Sox do, in fact, have some pitching prospects to get excited about: Cody Kukuk - news.soxprospects.com/2014/03/kukuk-turning-weakness-into-strength.html Simon Mercedes - fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/03/25/buzz-from-the-backfields-red-sox-pitching-prospect-simon-mercedes-dazzles/Jamie Callahan - Mario Alcantara - No links, but I think it was in one of the mini podcasts where they discussed his uptick in velocity this spring and they he may be developing into a more intriguing arm. Don't forget Trey Ball, Teddy Stankiewicz & Miles Smith. Who are your top pitching prospects in the low minors? Who are your breakout pitching candidates in the low minors? Who will make the biggest jump in the SoxProspects Rankings by June? By end of the year? |
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 25, 2014 10:58:56 GMT -5
Based on the reports I've seen from this spring, I think the Mercedes, Kukuk, and Callahan are going to be big risers in the system this year. Mercedes could position himself in the top 10.
I should add this question - Do these reports realistically change the projections/ceilings for these guys?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 25, 2014 12:17:37 GMT -5
This system is so fun to follow!!! So many arms worth tracking...
I like 'em all.... Seriously they all have things that intrigue me but for next year I'll be following Kukuk, Callahan, Mercedes closely.
On a side note I think Ball might have a "disappointing" first year only to come back strong next year.
If it holds true during the regular season and Mercedes is showing 95+ with two above avg sencundary pitches then I think he could be one of the biggest movers in baseball let alone the Red Sox.
I do think it changes some. I mean if Mercedes shows the three pitch mix it could quite the reliever talk some. If Kukuk throws strike at a high rate it could change him from hopefully he throws enough strike to maybe make it as a bullpen guy to a guy who projects as a starter.
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Post by raftsox on Mar 25, 2014 13:27:38 GMT -5
Mercedes doesn't do anything for me yet. At this point he's the typical story of a Dominican with a big arm: he might never harness his stuff or he might be traded, that sort of thing. I'll be a believer if he's a starter and succeeds through June.
Ball actually doesn't excite me this season. He's probably going to be serviceable, but not spectacular in his first season.
I am really excited for Kukuk, if for no other reason than I've been on that bandwagon since he was drafed.
The Greenville roster is the most intriguing though. There's a story for each starter.
Can Callahan improve upon last season? Will Stankiewicz live up to his (our) hype? Will Pat Light bounce back from an injury prone season/will he prove that he's a starter? Is Smith for real? Is Mercedes for real? Will Buttrey prove he's not a bust?
My 2 to watch are Buttrey and Light. Their stories interest me more than the others'.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 25, 2014 15:47:30 GMT -5
My projected low-A pitching rosters (top nine prospects):
Salem (age as of 3/31/14):
(SP) Haley (22) (#52), Littrell (22) (#29), L.Diaz (21) (#34), Kukuk (20) (#28), Gomez (20) (#47)
(Piggyback SP) Quevedo (23) (#48)
(RP) Younginer (23) (NR), Gunkel (22) (#35), Martin (22) (#49)
Greenville (age as of 3/31/14):
(SP) Smith (22) (#30), Buttrey (21) (#37), Stankiewicz (20) (#15), Ball (19) (#11), Callahan (19) (#21)
(Piggyback SP) Light (23) (#36), Mercedes (22) (#22)
(RP) Taveras (22) (#55), M.Alcantara (21) (NR)
My breakout candidates at each level are Littrell (good pitchability, should be able to sail through high-A and hit Portland by summer) and Stank (should be able to overpower low-A and push for a midseason promotion to Salem). Given the plethora of developing arms in A-ball, I would expect less promotions than normal out of the prospect pitchers this year.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 25, 2014 15:53:33 GMT -5
Not that there are any top prospects there (yet) but does anyone remember this DEEP a group at the low minors in terms of pitching prospects?
(That said, the current Salem squad is like last years' Greenville team; devoid of real position prospects.)
I'll add that the Kukuk writeup (and the accompanying lack of walks statistic) has me more excited for him than at any point since he was signed. I see he and Gomez breaking out (in terms of gaining the most in terms of prospect status) this year.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 25, 2014 17:10:05 GMT -5
My projected low-A pitching rosters (top nine prospects): Salem (age as of 3/31/14): (SP) Haley (22) (#52), Littrell (22) (#29), L.Diaz (21) (#34), Kukuk (20) (#28), Gomez (20) (#47) (Piggyback SP) Quevedo (23) (#48) (RP) Younginer (23) (NR), Gunkel (22) (#35), Martin (22) (#49) Greenville (age as of 3/31/14):
(SP) Smith (22) (#30), Buttrey (21) (#37), Stankiewicz (20) (#15), Ball (19) (#11), Callahan (19) (#21) (Piggyback SP) Light (23) (#36), Mercedes (22) (#22) (RP) Taveras (22) (#55), M.Alcantara (21) (NR)
My breakout candidates at each level are Littrell (good pitchability, should be able to sail through high-A and hit Portland by summer) and Stank (should be able to overpower low-A and push for a midseason promotion to Salem). Given the plethora of developing arms in A-ball, I would expect less promotions than normal out of the prospect pitchers this year. It seems like a lot more starting pitching arms in Greenville than in Salem (at least according to this site's offical 2014 projected rosters). And the piece by Speier on Mercedes hinted that he may start in Salem, which would make sense to balance out the starters a bit more on those 2 staffs (with the obvious caveat that the Sox feel he's ready and able to compete in A+). |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 26, 2014 8:49:08 GMT -5
Mercedes doesn't do anything for me yet. At this point he's the typical story of a Dominican with a big arm: he might never harness his stuff or he might be traded, that sort of thing. I'll be a believer if he's a starter and succeeds through June. Ball actually doesn't excite me this season. He's probably going to be serviceable, but not spectacular in his first season. I am really excited for Kukuk, if for no other reason than I've been on that bandwagon since he was drafed. The Greenville roster is the most intriguing though. There's a story for each starter. Can Callahan improve upon last season? Will Stankiewicz live up to his (our) hype? Will Pat Light bounce back from an injury prone season/will he prove that he's a starter? Is Smith for real? Is Mercedes for real? Will Buttrey prove he's not a bust? My 2 to watch are Buttrey and Light. Their stories interest me more than the others'. The fact that Pat Light gets completely ignored is a great testament to the depth of the pitching down at that level. I don't mean that in the way that he's actually good and just overshadowed by others, but the fact that a 1st round draft pick hasn't worked out (yet) but still hasn't left a noticeable hole in the development pipeline is pretty good. Usually, if a 1st rounder disappoints initially, the absence is noticeable. But, honestly, I barely think about the guy. |
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Post by okin15 on Mar 26, 2014 10:20:14 GMT -5
though to be fair, he coulda been in A+ or even AA with a good debut last year, and much higher on the prospect lists.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 26, 2014 11:29:07 GMT -5
Stank should be of value at least as a reliever. I have hopes for others, such as Callahan and of course Ball, but we have nothing down there which excites me yet. I'm just hopeful some of the raw guys pan out. I have made it pretty clear I didn't like the Ball pick. Great young man, it's nothing personal, it's was just more risky than I thought was warranted at that high a level of pick. He's raw, very skinny, and the fact that his competition level was in Indiana didn't help him much in my book. It was just too freaking risky for that high a pick. He was extremely skinny. They must have seen something beyond his athleticism, some indication in his family history that he would fill out well. Also maybe large, skinny fingers give greater control of a baseball, ala Buchholz and his change up. I have faith that they know what they are doing and that the odds are in their favor. At least some of these guys are going to pan out.
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Post by grinandbarrett on Mar 26, 2014 12:13:40 GMT -5
Haley is the guy I'm keeping an eye on this season. Saw him at spring training and was impressed. He had consistent mechanics from what I saw, and threw on a downward plain nicely. He throws hard but also had good extension in his release point - letting the ball get on the hitter more quickly.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2014 19:11:30 GMT -5
Ball actually doesn't excite me this season. He's probably going to be serviceable, but not spectacular in his first season. This exact sentiment was pretty much universally agreed upon by the crew in Ft. Myers last week. Not sure if we got that into a podcast. He's not a guy like Casey Kelly who is going to come in and carve up the lower levels. He'll be more of a slow build, like Lester, if things go according to plan. My guess is everyone will have him ranked way too low next offseason, myself included. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 26, 2014 21:30:26 GMT -5
My projected low-A pitching rosters (top nine prospects): Salem (age as of 3/31/14): (SP) Haley (22) (#52), Littrell (22) (#29), L.Diaz (21) (#34), Kukuk (20) (#28), Gomez (20) (#47) (Piggyback SP) Quevedo (23) (#48) (RP) Younginer (23) (NR), Gunkel (22) (#35), Martin (22) (#49) Greenville (age as of 3/31/14):
(SP) Smith (22) (#30), Buttrey (21) (#37), Stankiewicz (20) (#15), Ball (19) (#11), Callahan (19) (#21) (Piggyback SP) Light (23) (#36), Mercedes (22) (#22) (RP) Taveras (22) (#55), M.Alcantara (21) (NR)
My breakout candidates at each level are Littrell (good pitchability, should be able to sail through high-A and hit Portland by summer) and Stank (should be able to overpower low-A and push for a midseason promotion to Salem). Given the plethora of developing arms in A-ball, I would expect less promotions than normal out of the prospect pitchers this year. It seems like a lot more starting pitching arms in Greenville than in Salem (at least according to this site's offical 2014 projected rosters). And the piece by Speier on Mercedes hinted that he may start in Salem, which would make sense to balance out the starters a bit more on those 2 staffs (with the obvious caveat that the Sox feel he's ready and able to compete in A+). That's not at all unusual. The arms in Greenville are younger and aren't usually pushed to high pitch counts because they are more interested in the every fifth day thing. It's not at all uncommon to have 8 or 9 starters piggybacking. It's the first real filter. ADD: Greenville is also a great place for pop-ups to emerge. Guys that take a step that was unexpected. Two such pop-ups last year were Diaz, our 34th rated prospect and whoever it was we traded for Badenhop. (LOL, not worth looking up the name). It's not just the higher profile Kukuk, Stank types that make that an interesting team to follow. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2014 22:09:01 GMT -5
Luis Ortega was the player traded for Badenhop. He wasn't even really a pop-up guy and pitched in the GCL last year. I think you may be thinking of JD Wendelken, the Greenville RP who was in the Peavy trade.
Also, FWIW, I've been told that the piggyback thing isn't even really by design - it's just that they have to get all of these guys innings and that's the best way to do it, rather than forcing them to a level on the ladder that would be too high or low for them.
The glut of pitching is mostly a result of the focus, on purpose or by coincidence as it may be, on pitching in the last few drafts.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 26, 2014 22:49:30 GMT -5
I should think that the quality not the quantity is the result of the draft focus. I don't see there being an inordinate number of pitchers on the staff and low A is definitely too early to pigeonhole a pitcher into reliever in the vast majority of cases. I can't see any other way to do it than to piggyback.
Except the quality of the pitchers we are seeing, the general situation seems typical to me and like I said, it's the first real filter. The quality this year may cause a future glut at higher levels. LOL, we can reopen the extra farm club discussion if we keep expanding.
ADDS:
You are probably correct about the Peavy pop-up flip flop (say Peavu pop-up flip flop 3 times fast) . It astounded me that the Brewers couldn't get more than a pop-up for Badenhop. That's a far bigger long shot than a low level player with some pedigree history.
I think the Sox were wise to put Paul Abbott in Greenville. The two places I'd most want a good pitching coach are Greenville and Portland, but that's just me.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 27, 2014 8:08:50 GMT -5
The volume in the low minors is great, but it's not exactly filled up with blue chip prospects, nor is it realistic to think it should be. It's the spaghetti approach. Get a lot of raw power and/or projectable arms and see what cream rises. It's impossible to get many, if any, polished power arms so stockpile the unpolished variety and some will work. I doubt there will be any rotation issues at AA/AAA in the future.
Chris, when they say it's not by design, isn't that kind of mincing things a bit? I mean, they may not need to find a piggyback starter for a certain guy, but it's certainly designed out year after year. I'm guessing they mean it's not a specific part of a plan for a certain player, but it's an organizational plan for a group of players.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 27, 2014 11:25:14 GMT -5
It seems like a lot more starting pitching arms in Greenville than in Salem That's not at all unusual. The arms in Greenville are younger and aren't usually pushed to high pitch counts because they are more interested in the every fifth day thing. It's not at all uncommon to have 8 or 9 starters piggybacking. It's the first real filter. ADD: Greenville is also a great place for pop-ups to emerge. Guys that take a step that was unexpected. Two such pop-ups last year were Diaz, our 34th rated prospect and whoever it was we traded for Badenhop. (LOL, not worth looking up the name). It's not just the higher profile Kukuk, Stank types that make that an interesting team to follow. It may not be uncommon to have a glut of pitchers at Greenville, but this year's group is a LOT stronger than in 2013. You can tell that just by looking at the Salem rotation and the Drive pitchers on the prospect lists, and that's despite the fact that the A+ Sox have actually had a good winter/spring. ADD: I would go as far as to say that last year there was a glut of piggy-back types at Greenville and this year there's a couple extra starter-types there. |
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Post by okin15 on Apr 2, 2014 13:53:20 GMT -5
This site lists Justin Haley as a reliever in Salem, but others have expressed optimisim about him (several top-40's in the poster listings, plus Adam and Barrett above.) Anyone have anything else to add about him? I know next to nothing, so I'm just curious. Can he start? Will he piggy-back?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 2, 2014 14:24:40 GMT -5
He'll almost certainly piggyback. Kraus too, on that roster.
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