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3/31-4/3 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 31, 2014 19:32:34 GMT -5
Didn't agree with not pinch-hitting for Pierzynski. Gomes should have definitely have gotten that AB. Understood but didn't care for the Bradley pinch running move either. I was worried that the Sox would be in a situation where Ortiz would get intentionally walked - and as it turned out, while Ortiz at least had his chance, I felt Bradley would be overmatched against Hunter. Despite the handedness of the pitcher I would even have preferred Gomes in the situation, but I guess Farrell only uses Gomes for the post-season.
That was a lousy loss - as Jmei said - terrible hit sequencing. Amazing how they couldn't string those many non-home run hits together to score any runs at all. 12 runners left stranded.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 31, 2014 19:52:40 GMT -5
Didn't agree with not pinch-hitting for Pierzynski. Gomes should have definitely have gotten that AB. Understood but didn't care for the Bradley pinch running move either. I was worried that the Sox would be in a situation where Ortiz would get intentionally walked - and as it turned out, while Ortiz at least had his chance, I felt Bradley would be overmatched against Hunter. Despite the handedness of the pitcher I would even have preferred Gomes in the situation, but I guess Farrell only uses Gomes for the post-season. That was a lousy loss - as Jmei said - terrible hit sequencing. Amazing how they couldn't string those many non-home run hits together to score any runs at all. 12 runners left stranded. Get used to it… JF is not one to PH for his catchers late in the game…. Of the games salty started last year he completed all but SIX, three of those he was PH for, with two of those three PH comming with expanded rosters
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 31, 2014 20:20:44 GMT -5
Well, the hits would've been sequenced better if Farrell had put the hitters in a different order!! #FarrellFault
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 31, 2014 20:46:28 GMT -5
Didn't agree with not pinch-hitting for Pierzynski. Gomes should have definitely have gotten that AB. Understood but didn't care for the Bradley pinch running move either. I was worried that the Sox would be in a situation where Ortiz would get intentionally walked - and as it turned out, while Ortiz at least had his chance, I felt Bradley would be overmatched against Hunter. Despite the handedness of the pitcher I would even have preferred Gomes in the situation, but I guess Farrell only uses Gomes for the post-season. That was a lousy loss - as Jmei said - terrible hit sequencing. Amazing how they couldn't string those many non-home run hits together to score any runs at all. 12 runners left stranded. Get used to it… JF is not one to PH for his catchers late in the game…. Of the games salty started last year he completed all but SIX, three of those he was PH for, with two of those three PH comming with expanded rosters Yeah, I know. I'm not a fan of AJP or his hacktastic offense. If it were Ross instead of AJP catching Farrell would have pinch-hit, though.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 31, 2014 21:07:31 GMT -5
Get used to it… JF is not one to PH for his catchers late in the game…. Of the games salty started last year he completed all but SIX, three of those he was PH for, with two of those three PH comming with expanded rosters Yeah, I know. I'm not a fan of AJP or his hacktastic offense. If it were Ross instead of AJP catching Farrell would have pinch-hit, though. Ross was PH for a little more, though im not sure how much of that can be connected to his health issues he had the whole season
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Post by ibsmith85 on Mar 31, 2014 21:08:05 GMT -5
If a dinosaur ate Ross after replacing AJP (as one of the veteran posters was once quoted), I still don't know why Napoli couldn't strap on the gear for a few innings. I put up with the thought last year that his hips were a valid reason, but I would hope that fear has subsided enough that the benefits of pinch hitting in a clutch situation, plus defensive upgrade, is worth the small possibility of Napoli having to catch an inning or three.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 31, 2014 21:29:49 GMT -5
Well Napoli couldn't re-enter the game so that wouldn't have worked today but Napoli is absolutely the third catcher and his presence should make Farrell comfortable pinch hitting/running for the starting catcher. The chances of the backup actually getting injured are low to begin with and you have a capable emergency guy.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 31, 2014 23:36:24 GMT -5
1) There are games every year that you lose because of nothing more or less than bad luck. Games, for instance, where the wind is holding up balls hit to left, and you lose a 3-run bomb and probably 2 or 3 other balls at least off the wall, and the other team literally never hits the ball to the warning track aside from a no-doubt HR, and you lose by a run. Or a game where you hit .000 / .091 / .000 in 11 PA with RISP and .346 / .414 / .538 in the other 29, and you lose by a run. (In theory, you could even have both of those things happen in the same game, but that seems unlikely, doesn't it?).
Seriously, one can hope that they got rid of a month's worth of bad karma right there.
2) Brian Matusz has allowed .305 / .370 / .490 to RHB in his career, and Jonny Gomes has hit .277 / .377 / .502 vs. LHP. Matusz has allowed .208 / .264 / .354 to LHB, and Pierzynski has hit .261 / .291 / .384 against LHP.
So, you roughly have a .235 / .260 / .390 hitter up*, and you have a chance to go to a .320 / .420 / .580 hitter instead. You could probably multiply the infinitesimal odds of Ross getting hurt in the remainder of the game by 50 or 100 and still come out ahead if you decided to pinch-hit. The odds of tying the game there with Gomes were roughly on the order of +50%, which is about as good as it gets.
(Had to run immediately after the game to hear Steven Pinker introduce The Paths of Glory with a tremendous talk on the history of war, and had to watch the How I Met Your Mother finale immediately upon returning, hence the delay ...)
*Adding the difference between Matusz' splits and league average to the hitter lines, which is a good approximation for using the log5 method.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 31, 2014 23:49:19 GMT -5
It's good to see you have a life outside of baseball Eric! BTW, my kid felt the same way about Pinker and did research for him a couple of years while in college. A very bright guy no doubt. He's done interesting work in a number of fields.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2014 6:48:22 GMT -5
It's good to see you have a life outside of baseball Eric! BTW, my kid felt the same way about Pinker and did research for him a couple of years while in college. A very bright guy no doubt. He's done interesting work in a number of fields. Actually, baseball has never been my #1 passion or pursuit. In my 20's it was a distinct second to music (out in Boston's punk clubs 4-5 nights a week*, writing for local 'zines), then it took a back seat, at least in time spent, to science fiction / fantasy (conference program running), and now it's probably in third place, just behind film (I've seen 300+ movies that were released the last 3 years, with 150+ still in my Netflix queue), but well behind neuroscience / psychology. Pinker's wife is the author Rebecca Goldstein, and she and I share a mutual friend (the novelist James Morrow), and both her work and Pinker's are relevant to what I'm doing, so I've always hoped to meet him (and her). All the more so after hearing him tonight. *I wouldn't believe that myself, but for the 1978 season I kept a baseball notebook where I scored every game I watched on TV, and pasted in the newspaper box score for games I missed, and the only reason I missed games on TV was because I was out seeing The Atlantics, The Cars, LaPeste, Willie Alexander, etc. The 4-5 nights claim is derived from that notebook, and from a couple of "who I saw the last couple of weeks" stories I wrote. ----- Back on topic, Farrell was quoted as saying he liked the AJP / Matusz matchup. Bet he gets a call from Cherington today.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 1, 2014 9:57:32 GMT -5
You know all that talk about AJ Pierzynski, the "hate him when he's on another team, but love him on your team" stuff? I'm not so sure about that for me. I get so annoyed with guys who go up in critical situations and hack away at any pitch they see.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 1, 2014 10:12:03 GMT -5
You know all that talk about AJ Pierzynski, the "hate him when he's on another team, but love him on your team" stuff? I'm not so sure about that for me. I get so annoyed with guys who go up in critical situations and hack away at any pitch they see. It was discouraging to see him swing at a pitch that almost hit him. Why ever throw this guy a strike? Imagine what he would hit if he had any semblance of plate discipline? Also it must be a bit discouraging to the other guys and the Sox whose collective mantra is to work counts and get good pitches to hit. I noticed that Middlebrooks has opened his stance ever so slightly now. Last year he was quite pronounced in an open stance and then, having troubles, squared up.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 1, 2014 11:10:49 GMT -5
Eric!
It actually fits your profile. Statistics meganerd! Science Fiction/Fantasy. Neuroscience! In an esoterically elegant way it fits perfectly!
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Post by godot on Apr 1, 2014 11:10:52 GMT -5
But AJ has been in the majors for 17 years and has hit fairly well. He is not going to change at this stage of his game, and the Sox knew what they were getting. He also seems to have the uncanny ability to make contact. Save your anger, especially after one game. I would be more concerned about Jr. and Middlebrooks.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 1, 2014 11:32:49 GMT -5
But AJ has been in the majors for 17 years and has hit fairly well. He is not going to change at this stage of his game, and the Sox knew what they were getting. He also seems to have the uncanny ability to make contact. Save your anger, especially after one game. I would be more concerned about Jr. and Middlebrooks. Godot, while I was waiting I came across the below linked article. It seems others have the same take. As an aside, I am not angry with any Sox player including AJ. It just seems as tho he is the anti-Sox guy when it comes to the team philosophy. I think we got him instead of Hannigan (sp) or someone else because he would take a one year deal where Salty and others would not and the perception is that Vasquez and Swihart are on the horizon. Also I look forward to a big year from WMB. www.boston.com/blogs/sports/columnists/kaufman/2014/04/aj_pierzynskis_biggest_flaw_exposed_in_red_sox_deb.html
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Post by godot on Apr 1, 2014 11:55:56 GMT -5
Wasn't that crazy about him or the signing. Would have preferred Ruiz, but the Sox have this thing against long term contracts. Instead, they have great faith in the their farm system, and building from within. This same approach is probably at the heart of the Lester negotiations. Well, at least they are consistent and stay their course. Are they too dogmatic about their approach and too hopeful about their prospects. Many are called but few are chosen, you know. Can you predict that a prospect will be ready to go in a certain amount of time? Prediction comes from the physical sciences, and hasn't been that successful in other fields such as economics and politics science. Just different subjects that perhaps require a logic of inquiry for that field instead of aping the methods used in the physical sciences. Regardless, A.J. is one of us for one year, and his signing seemed to base on contract and organizational philosophy, not on who the best catcher was out there.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2014 12:09:13 GMT -5
Wasn't that crazy about him or the signing. Would have preferred Ruiz, but the Sox have this thing against long term contracts. Instead, they have great faith in the their farm system, and building from within. This same approach is probably at the heart of the Lester negotiations. Well, at least they are consistent and stay their course. Are they too dogmatic about their approach and too hopeful about their prospects. Many are called but few are chosen, you know. Can you predict that a prospect will be ready to go in a certain amount of time? Prediction comes from the physical sciences, and hasn't been that successful in other fields such as economics and politics science. Just different subjects that perhaps require a logic of inquiry for that field instead of aping the methods used in the physical sciences. Regardless, A.J. is one of us for one year, and his signing seemed to base on contract and organizational philosophy, not on who the best catcher was out there. We didn't sign Ruiz because we're not the Phillies and we're not as stupid as the Phillies. I have a feeling it's going to be a long season of bitching in regards to AJP. If Vazquez doesn't look almost ready by September, we'll probably sign another catcher for a year. But if he is ready, I'm glad we don't have Ruiz for another two years.
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Post by jmei on Apr 1, 2014 12:30:15 GMT -5
I think many of you are unnecessarily focusing on what Pierzynski does poorly and ignoring what he does well. Yes, Pierzynski swings at a lot of pitches, including at a lot of balls outside the zone. But he makes contact at an above-average rate, doesn't strike out that often, and hits for average-to-better power. He's going to have an OBP not much higher than .300, but the offensive bar for catchers is so low that he'll nonetheless be an average to above-average player. He's also remarkably durable and consistent and is coming off eight straight 500+ PA seasons, which is basically unheard of for a guy at his position. Yeah, it sucks that he swung at some bad pitches and the Red Sox lost, but that's just who he is-- a hitter who puts a lot of pitches into play, many of which turn into hits (he's 6th among catchers in batting average over the last three years and is a career .283 hitter). Frankly, I don't even really mind having him up in a clutch situation where a single ties the game-- he's projected to have the fourth best batting average on the Red Sox, for instance, and he's a guy I'm at least pretty confident is not going to strike out that often.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2014 12:37:03 GMT -5
I absolutely hated the AJP signing very much and as usual the media guys like to ask the wrong questions. I wasn't worried about the guy being a pariah on the Sox. He might not be liked by the opposing clubs, but honestly, who cares?
Yet that was all the focus, not the fact that this guy's ABs are quicker than Koji's ninja-like (don't go to the bathroom or else you'll miss it) outings. I think his hitting approach is ridiculously stupid and doesn't belong on the Red Sox. This guy alone will make the opposing pitchers' workloads easier as they will probably throw at least 500 - 700 less pitches than they normally would because this guy is compelled to swing at whatever garbage they throw up there.
I know they wanted a short-term contract, but I have no idea why they didn't re-sign Salty. I know the guy has his warts. But the guy runs up the pitch count and occasionally connects for the long one. His defense is mediocre, but AJP is no gold-glover at this point either, and you're comparing a 28 year old hitting his prime versus a 37 year old who's seen better days.
So what's left? Length of contract? That's laughable in my opinion. The state of catching in the majors isn't that strong and Salty wound up with a 3 year deal worth $21 million. Say the Sox matched that deal and he re-signed. And let's say Vazquez and/or Swihart were ready sooner than later, Salty's contract would be quite tradable. This isn't a mammoth Carl Crawford contract. This is a very palatable deal for any team needing a better hitting catcher. This wouldn't be some millstone contract, and if Salty were half-way decent, the Sox could even get value for him in a trade.
It's doubtful that Vazquez is major league ready (offensively, anyways) this season, and perhaps it's 50-50 next year. I think the Sox could have benefitted from 2 years of that deal with Salty and trade him at some point in either year 2 or more likely year 3. I doubt they would have that much trouble doing so.
So now, if Vazquez isn't ready by 2015, then the Sox are looking at another one year solution.
Meanwhile, we get to watch stupid hitting by AJP all year, but Joe Public will be happy because I'm sure he can bang out a .270 BA to go along with his .275 OBP. Yeesh.
I loved the way the Sox took grinding patient at-bats last year. AJP is the antithesis of that and I think it will damage the Sox some this year.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 1, 2014 14:38:34 GMT -5
I think many of you are unnecessarily focusing on what Pierzynski does poorly and ignoring what he does well. Yes, Pierzynski swings at a lot of pitches, including at a lot of balls outside the zone. But he makes contact at an above-average rate, doesn't strike out that often, and hits for average-to-better power. He's going to have an OBP not much higher than .300, but the offensive bar for catchers is so low that he'll nonetheless be an average to above-average player. He's also remarkably durable and consistent and is coming off eight straight 500+ PA seasons, which is basically unheard of for a guy at his position. Yeah, it sucks that he swung at some bad pitches and the Red Sox lost, but that's just who he is-- a hitter who puts a lot of pitches into play, many of which turn into hits (he's 6th among catchers in batting average over the last three years and is a career .283 hitter). Frankly, I don't even really mind having him up in a clutch situation where a single ties the game-- he's projected to have the fourth best batting average on the Red Sox, for instance, and he's a guy I'm at least pretty confident is not going to strike out that often. This is all totally true. I was (and am) ok with the AJ signing on an intellectual level ... he's a solid player, and the Sox needed a short-term solution with Vasquez and Swihart getting close. But, doesn't mean I have to enjoy watching him bat. I just find at-bats like AJ's to be annoying to watch, especially after a couple of walks. I'd rather see Salty flail at a 3-2 pitch down the middle and miss by a foot than AJ foul off a first pitch that almost hits him. It's not totally rational, although Salty's approach is unarguably better (he just doesn't have AJ's skill as a hitter).
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Post by rangoon82 on Apr 1, 2014 14:46:38 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 1, 2014 15:31:09 GMT -5
Meanwhile, we get to watch stupid hitting by AJP all year, but Joe Public will be happy because I'm sure he can bang out a .270 BA to go along with his .275 OBP. Yeesh. I loved the way the Sox took grinding patient at-bats last year. AJP is the antithesis of that and I think it will damage the Sox some this year. Salty, '11-'13: .244/.306/.457 AJP, '11-'13: .279/.315/.444 As far as grinding ABs goes, it's great and all, but there's no need to get so dogmatic about it. The Sox still have a lineup loaded with those guys.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2014 16:15:12 GMT -5
Meanwhile, we get to watch stupid hitting by AJP all year, but Joe Public will be happy because I'm sure he can bang out a .270 BA to go along with his .275 OBP. Yeesh. I loved the way the Sox took grinding patient at-bats last year. AJP is the antithesis of that and I think it will damage the Sox some this year. Salty, '11-'13: .244/.306/.457 AJP, '11-'13: .279/.315/.444 As far as grinding ABs goes, it's great and all, but there's no need to get so dogmatic about it. The Sox still have a lineup loaded with those guys. With the age difference between AJP and Salty I'm leaning more heavily on 2013 than 2011 or 2012 as AJP is further removed from his prime years. Also with age, the guy gets even less patient. He had 11 walks last year, and yes I know spring training doesn't matter - but he had 42 ABs without a walk. This guy is going to hack at everything so that the difference between his BA and OBP will be miniscule. I don't think I'm being overly dogmatic about it - I'm not advocating pushing WMB out the door and that guy is mostly a hacker - I do think he'll hit well this year. I just don't want to see AJP and WMB back-to-back. WMB brings developing massive power to the table. At this stage of his career, what can AJP bring? Talk about quick innings for pitchers.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 1, 2014 16:31:04 GMT -5
Salty, '11-'13: .244/.306/.457 AJP, '11-'13: .279/.315/.444 As far as grinding ABs goes, it's great and all, but there's no need to get so dogmatic about it. The Sox still have a lineup loaded with those guys. With the age difference between AJP and Salty I'm leaning more heavily on 2013 than 2011 or 2012 as AJP is further removed from his prime years. Also with age, the guy gets even less patient. He had 11 walks last year, and yes I know spring training doesn't matter - but he had 42 ABs without a walk. This guy is going to hack at everything so that the difference between his BA and OBP will be miniscule. I don't think I'm being overly dogmatic about it - I'm not advocating pushing WMB out the door and that guy is mostly a hacker - I do think he'll hit well this year. I just don't want to see AJP and WMB back-to-back. WMB brings developing massive power to the table. At this stage of his career, what can AJP bring? Talk about quick innings for pitchers. Most if not all of what you got from Salty on a one year deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2014 16:41:56 GMT -5
With the age difference between AJP and Salty I'm leaning more heavily on 2013 than 2011 or 2012 as AJP is further removed from his prime years. Also with age, the guy gets even less patient. He had 11 walks last year, and yes I know spring training doesn't matter - but he had 42 ABs without a walk. This guy is going to hack at everything so that the difference between his BA and OBP will be miniscule. I don't think I'm being overly dogmatic about it - I'm not advocating pushing WMB out the door and that guy is mostly a hacker - I do think he'll hit well this year. I just don't want to see AJP and WMB back-to-back. WMB brings developing massive power to the table. At this stage of his career, what can AJP bring? Talk about quick innings for pitchers. Most if not all of what you got from Salty on a one year deal. No. The OBP will be lower and I would suspect the SA will be lower. And the one year deal thing isn't that big a deal. Like I said before I hardly think that Salty's contract is untradeable. If one year was all they'd need from Salty I doubt they'd have an issue dealing that contract away.
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