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3/31-4/3 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by jmei on Apr 2, 2014 15:17:09 GMT -5
The actors with the best player evaluation & projection systems are MLB teams. The most any MLB team was willing to commit in the free market to Salty was 3x$7m. It's a continual source of wonder to me when an amateur's analysis of player value is clearly out of step with the market and the main question that occurs to him over and over is: "Why are all these teams so wrong?" When one team seemingly overpays, or an agent overplays his hand and has to settle for a discount later, that's one thing, but Salty signed below [some] expectations in an active, competitive market. So, what, we should just assume teams are omnipotent and stop analyzing their decisions in free agency? Teams do make mistakes all the time, even ones with smart front offices and access to nonpublic data (cough Hanrahan). When the Red Sox do something that seems wrong, the question absolutely should be to ask why they're doing something that seems to make no sense. I guess your beef is that I asked it in a way that you think is too egotistical, but phrasing it it as "what am I not seeing here?" gets to the same point. I've already discussed one possible hypothesis, the idea that the Red Sox front office weighed the flexibility of a one-year commitment very highly (and, as I argued, perhaps too highly). I'm happy to hear other possible explanations for why they should have signed Pierzynski instead of Saltalamacchia. I've already discussed above why I think Saltalamacchia is the better player. If you disagree, I'd love to hear your reasoning.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 2, 2014 15:40:48 GMT -5
The actors with the best player evaluation & projection systems are MLB teams. The most any MLB team was willing to commit in the free market to Salty was 3x$7m. It's a continual source of wonder to me when an amateur's analysis of player value is clearly out of step with the market and the main question that occurs to him over and over is: "Why are all these teams so wrong?" When one team seemingly overpays, or an agent overplays his hand and has to settle for a discount later, that's one thing, but Salty signed below [some] expectations in an active, competitive market. Are you suggesting we don't analyze personnel moves based on the information we have available to us? Sure, the Red Sox may have an advanced way to understand pitch framing that shows Salty is god awful and not worth nearly what public sources suggest he is worth. But does that mean we should stop using the information we have and point out when a move doesn't line up with that? I think jmei's analysis is pretty spot on. Virtually every piece of data we have available to us shows that Salty was paid less than what he will be worth. Based on what we know, it doesn't make a ton of sense that the team chose to sign Pierzynski instead of Salty - even with the difference in contract length. It seems likely, based on what we know, that the team is heavily valuing the fact that Pierzynski could be had for one year. jmei pretty convincingly shows that given how little Salty signed for that may have been a bad move. Also, it never ceases to amaze me how quick you are to jump on jmei. Perhaps you should learn to engage in a civil conversation rather than attacking him the way you do.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2014 15:43:48 GMT -5
Not sure if this post breaks is out of line within the thread topic (sorry if it is)....but can anyone give me some feedback on the quality of MLB.TV streaming? I am considering purchasing.......as I am not local to New England....tired of following on Gameday. Want to get games on my laptop. Don't know what I'd do without it. I switched from the cable MLB Extra Innings package several years ago because they didn't have any of the games in HD. It's been great. Another OT post - anyone know how to get MILB.tv added to your MLB.tv account? It's not intuitive.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 2, 2014 15:46:15 GMT -5
Even more concerning is that after the two MLB catchers on the roster's contracts are up next year, we have a poor defensive catcher with limited MLB experience who is moving to 1B, and two guys with no MLB experience. I can't imagine the Sox want Vasquez and Butler as their catchers next year, but I also dunno if I want them to bring back the old guard for a last hurrah.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2014 15:47:05 GMT -5
It's way easier to see that if all 32 teams pass on someone (Drew) - that it's safe to say that the teams know something we don't. It's not as easy to know this when one team makes a ridiculous move, like the Tigers giving up Fister for almost nothing and then blasting Scherzer publicly for not signing right this minute.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2014 15:48:03 GMT -5
Even more concerning is that after the two MLB catchers on the roster's contracts are up next year, we have a poor defensive catcher with limited MLB experience who is moving to 1B, and two guys with no MLB experience. I can't imagine the Sox want Vasquez and Butler as their catchers next year, but I also dunno if I want them to bring back the old guard for a last hurrah. I'm guessing that someone would want to catch for the Red Sox if they offered him a fair contract.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 2, 2014 15:49:52 GMT -5
Even more concerning is that after the two MLB catchers on the roster's contracts are up next year, we have a poor defensive catcher with limited MLB experience who is moving to 1B, and two guys with no MLB experience. I can't imagine the Sox want Vasquez and Butler as their catchers next year, but I also dunno if I want them to bring back the old guard for a last hurrah. I'm guessing that someone would want to catch for the Red Sox if they offered him a fair contract. But don't you want some continuity year to year? Someone to mentor the young guy and pass on the in's and outs of the staff? Come to think of it, maybe they distinctly thought Salty couldn't be that guy, that he'd be a bad influence?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2014 15:55:42 GMT -5
I'm guessing that someone would want to catch for the Red Sox if they offered him a fair contract. But don't you want some continuity year to year? Someone to mentor the young guy and pass on the in's and outs of the staff? Come to think of it, maybe they distinctly thought Salty couldn't be that guy, that he'd be a bad influence? If they think Vazquez is ready next year, they'd probably ask Ross back for another year. If not, maybe Vazquez can backup Russell Martin.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 2, 2014 16:04:13 GMT -5
This may have nothing more to do with anything than that he wanted to live in S. Florida. That third year near home may have trumped everything else, for all we know. As for amateur evaluation, what do we call Omar Minaya's work? Or that of Ruben Amaro Jr., or Bowden when he was GM-ing? You could probably pull transactions out of a hat, or use refrigerator magnets with the names of players and teams, and come up with a better "analysis" than some of what's gone done under those guys.
There's no monopoly on expertise, not when it comes to performance analysis when you factor in risk, and marginal wins. There's a reason why dozens of people have been pulled off of boards and sites like BP so that they could meet the staff in the front office on their new jobs. It isn't because the FO felt they had all the answers.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 2, 2014 16:04:32 GMT -5
Not sure if this post breaks is out of line within the thread topic (sorry if it is)....but can anyone give me some feedback on the quality of MLB.TV streaming? I am considering purchasing.......as I am not local to New England....tired of following on Gameday. Want to get games on my laptop. Series threads are pretty open, so while I'm not a moderator, I'll chime in that it's fine to mention that here ... And I'll echo others: it's pretty good. As a business venture, I think the mlb.tv has been one of the best things MLB has done. They were way ahead of the other sports (still are) on this, and the quality of the product has generally been good. Even the mobile quality isn't too bad. I've had it for years now, and it's been a great way to keep up with the Sox. As an aside, for the first year or so, the "condensed games" they had the next day were terrific. They would just string together the "money pitch" of every at-bat in the game, so you saw the result of every at bat, with the initial announcer's call. I think it was actually too good and was causing people to not watch the actual games; they stopped doing it that way after a bit and now the condensed games are kinda meh.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 2, 2014 16:40:49 GMT -5
Thanks to everyone for their input on MLB.TV. I am going to give it a shot, so I can follow the greatest franchise in sports history a little closer.
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Post by soxfanatic on Apr 2, 2014 16:48:04 GMT -5
Thanks to everyone for their input on MLB.TV. I am going to give it a shot, so I can follow the greatest franchise in sports history a little closer. I can very much recommend the premium package, so that you're not stuck with Hawk Harrelson for 9 grueling innings.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 2, 2014 16:50:49 GMT -5
As an aside, for the first year or so, the "condensed games" they had the next day were terrific. They would just string together the "money pitch" of every at-bat in the game, so you saw the result of every at bat, with the initial announcer's call. I think it was actually too good and was causing people to not watch the actual games; they stopped doing it that way after a bit and now the condensed games are kinda meh. I've not had it long enough to have seen the way you described but I'm pretty happy with the way condensed games are presently. I'd like to add that mlb.tv works excellently on Linux as well, with a 3rd-party client.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 2, 2014 17:00:32 GMT -5
Anyone get a line-up for tonight?
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 2, 2014 17:03:17 GMT -5
Hi guidas. Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 10 min. 4/2 at BAL: Nava RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Gomes LF, Sizemore CF, Bogaerts SS, Pierzynski C, Middlebrooks 3B, Lackey SP.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 2, 2014 17:12:24 GMT -5
Thanks to everyone for their input on MLB.TV. I am going to give it a shot, so I can follow the greatest franchise in sports history a little closer. I can very much recommend the premium package, so that you're not stuck with Hawk Harrelson for 9 grueling innings. A crueler fate I could not imagine.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 2, 2014 17:12:49 GMT -5
Hi guidas. Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 10 min. 4/2 at BAL: Nava RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Gomes LF, Sizemore CF, Bogaerts SS, Pierzynski C, Middlebrooks 3B, Lackey SP. Ugh. Cell phone blues. I got lost in the selfie traffic. Thanks! btw, I am at the point where I hate the Orioles nearly as much as the Rays and Yankees. (The disgruntlement has increased in the last year because my neighbor golfs with Showalter, who says to me almost every time I see him "I can get you a better cap than that one with the 'B' on it.").
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 2, 2014 18:08:48 GMT -5
"And for whatever reason has really bad numbers against the Red Sox..."
It's called Small Sample Size, Don, and you should really read up on it.
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Post by jmei on Apr 2, 2014 18:14:56 GMT -5
...and the lack of situational hitting continues. Bleh.
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Post by soxfanatic on Apr 2, 2014 18:15:20 GMT -5
Ugh, Nap swings at a ball out of the strike zone after six straight balls thrown by Jimenez
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 2, 2014 18:17:02 GMT -5
If Jimenez keeps this up there won't be many more scoreless innings for the Sox.
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Post by soxfanatic on Apr 2, 2014 18:17:06 GMT -5
"And for whatever reason has really bad numbers against the Red Sox..." It's called Small Sample Size, Don, and you should really read up on it. I also really hate the 'numbers versus a certain team'. Even if the sample size is big, players on teams change so it basically tells you nothing.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 2, 2014 18:24:30 GMT -5
"And for whatever reason has really bad numbers against the Red Sox..." It's called Small Sample Size, Don, and you should really read up on it. This is what drove me to the Baltimore broadcast Monday (MLB TV has a week of free games). I get to listen to Jim Palmer and it all makes a lot more sense.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 2, 2014 18:25:59 GMT -5
Confirmed... Farrell inserted Gomes into lineup based on a 12 AB sample against this specific opposing pitcher.
One of these days a baseball manager will come along who understands the difference between statistics and trivia, and it will be amazing.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 2, 2014 18:29:08 GMT -5
Confirmed... Farrell inserted Gomes into lineup based on a 12 AB sample against this specific opposing pitcher. One of these days a baseball manager will come along who understands the difference between statistics and trivia, and it will be amazing. Wait, how that that confirmed?
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