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4/7-4/9 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
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Post by marrcus on Apr 7, 2014 21:18:06 GMT -5
I'd be happy right now to go .500 / April. Going to be a rough month.
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 7, 2014 21:18:24 GMT -5
A couple of random thoughts- fenwaythehardway, I understand your reasoning for hating bunting; the numbers back up that reasoning. Still, I find myself to be a fan of bunting, especially in 1st & 2nd situations w/ hitters who are either prone to hitting into DP's or just weak in general.
- I disagree that Nava needs to be benched for JBJ. Where are the small sample size police here? We're only six games in. As members mention on here frequently, Nava was one of the best offensive outfielders in baseball last season, give him time.
- This offseason I brought up the idea of JBJ playing RF long-term for the Sox. Hypothetically, if we were to trade for a CF in the near future, I'd be more than willing to move JBJ to RF. He looks excellent out there tonight. Victorino provided so much value defensively last season w/ his range, we need an excellent defensive RF to cover those grounds and JBJ can be the man after Victorino.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 7, 2014 21:21:36 GMT -5
Yikes, that's more wanting to be right than wanting to win. You win more in the long run without sac bunts. I agree, but can't root for failure just because I disagree with the move. I don't agree with lots of moves but once they are made I want them to work.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 7, 2014 21:29:57 GMT -5
Crisis adverted.
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Post by jmei on Apr 7, 2014 21:31:45 GMT -5
I disagree that Nava needs to be benched for JBJ. Where are the small sample size police here? We're only six games in. As members mention on here frequently, Nava was one of the best offensive outfielders in baseball last season, give him time. Err... I think everyone arguing in favor of Bradley over Nava is talking about right field only. I definitely still want Nava out there in left field versus every RHP. But the Gomes/Carp in LF, Nava in RF outfield is not one I want to see much.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 7, 2014 21:41:30 GMT -5
There is one perhaps sustainable reason they've been stranding lots of baserunners-- a relative lack of power. If Middlebrooks is out for a month or two, it wouldn't surprise me if Ortiz and Napoli were the only ones with 15+ home runs. Maybe, but how bad is the power really? If there aren't a lot of big home run threats, there's also very few positions where the Sox won't have at least average power.
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 7, 2014 21:52:52 GMT -5
I disagree that Nava needs to be benched for JBJ. Where are the small sample size police here? We're only six games in. As members mention on here frequently, Nava was one of the best offensive outfielders in baseball last season, give him time. Err... I think everyone arguing in favor of Bradley over Nava is talking about right field only. I definitely still want Nava out there in left field versus every RHP. But the Gomes/Carp in LF, Nava in RF outfield is not one I want to see much. Oh my fault, that makes sense. If Bradley produces with the bat over the next month plus, I don't see them sending him down w/ the value he adds defensively. I understand that Ben always wants to keep as much depth as possible, but barring any (Sizemore) injuries, a Mike Carp trade (when Shanf returns) in that situation seems desirable.
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Post by jmei on Apr 7, 2014 21:55:15 GMT -5
There is one perhaps sustainable reason they've been stranding lots of baserunners-- a relative lack of power. If Middlebrooks is out for a month or two, it wouldn't surprise me if Ortiz and Napoli were the only ones with 15+ home runs. Maybe, but how bad is the power really? If there aren't a lot of big home run threats, there's also very few positions where the Sox won't have at least average power. Until Victorino comes back, and maybe even after he does, I think the Red Sox will get below-average power at all three of the OF positions, and the same will be true at 3B until Middlebrooks returns. That's four of the nine spots in the order, and it can be tough to string enough singles/walks together to score bunches of runs, especially with how good relievers have gotten. They'll still be a well above-average offense, but I think they'll be more in the 3-5 range as opposed to the best offense in the league by 100 runs or whatever they were last year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 7, 2014 22:00:03 GMT -5
A couple of random thoughts... - This offseason I brought up the idea of JBJ playing RF long-term for the Sox. Hypothetically, if we were to trade for a CF in the near future, I'd be more than willing to move JBJ to RF. He looks excellent out there tonight. Victorino provided so much value defensively last season w/ his range, we need an excellent defensive RF to cover those grounds and JBJ can be the man after Victorino.
That is all going to depend on Sizemore and his tenure, and Victorino's health. Bradley has a lot more value as a CF, and he should see time there. If Sizemore keeps slamming into walls, he probably will, unfortunately. At some point in right, a decent fielder with more power would be nice. That sounds like Brentz, but without the discipline he's less valuable than Bradley out there. Right now it's all evolving, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the team move that way. Right now, I'm just glad they have some good options.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 7, 2014 23:14:04 GMT -5
Well pitched game by Lackey tonight. He came up big. And JBJ needs to get his shot in RF. When Victorino gets back they can see how JBJ, Sizemore, and Nava are doing and go from there, but for now Bradley should definitely be in RF. Not only did he hit well, but his fielding was great. Nava definitely wouldn't have made those plays.
I'll even give props to AJP for his 3 hits, but I still hate his hitting approach (like when he swung at a wild pitch and struck out on a high pitch) and don't look forward to his .270 BA and .275 OBP. Hope Vazquez keeps on playing well at Pawtucket and Swihart at Portland.
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Post by marrcus on Apr 7, 2014 23:18:13 GMT -5
"At some point in right, a decent fielder with more power would be nice." ------------------------------------------
I'm thinking Jose Bautista. Now it would only happen if Toronto falls hopelessly out of it again but he only has this year and next at less money than Ortiz.
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 7, 2014 23:19:56 GMT -5
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Post by templeusox on Apr 8, 2014 0:45:50 GMT -5
Glad our best centerfielder got a chance to shine tonight.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 8, 2014 4:01:06 GMT -5
JBJ is just flat out a winning ball player. He executed the hit and run perfectly and there is no doubt he placed that bunt exactly where he wanted and legged it out well also. How many guys on this team would have pulled off either play well not named Victorino or Pedroia? He adds abilities every team needs. His AB tonight represented excellent situational hitting. Every person in Fenway knew he was going to bunt and he sneaks a look at the 2nd baseman and puts it down perfectly.
Time to trade Carp.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 8, 2014 7:30:28 GMT -5
Maybe, but how bad is the power really? If there aren't a lot of big home run threats, there's also very few positions where the Sox won't have at least average power. Until Victorino comes back, and maybe even after he does, I think the Red Sox will get below-average power at all three of the OF positions, and the same will be true at 3B until Middlebrooks returns. That's four of the nine spots in the order, and it can be tough to string enough singles/walks together to score bunches of runs, especially with how good relievers have gotten. They'll still be a well above-average offense, but I think they'll be more in the 3-5 range as opposed to the best offense in the league by 100 runs or whatever they were last year. I'm not sure about CF - we'll have to see what Sizemore develops into - but I think the bigger point is that comparing by fielding positions isn't really a productive way to look at that because power is not distributed among the defensive positions the same on each team. If anything, you should go by batting order; Victorino isn't a RFer (where he likely has below-average power); he's a #2 hitter (where he likely has above-average power). Bogaerts by himself throws the whole thing off if you go by position. Middlebrooks is a big loss of power, for sure, but with him, if you look at the lineup, it looks to have pretty good power up and down the lineup. Without him, they're maybe average or a bit below. If anyone has a few minutes (I don't right now but maybe later), it'd be easy enough to check the average SLG in each lineup position and compare with the expected performance of the people occupying those slots in the Red Sox lineup. Of course, whether Middlebrooks hits enough this year to have above average SLG is still an open question ...
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Post by godot on Apr 8, 2014 7:32:26 GMT -5
Patience again. Before the game was noticing that Jr. was holding his own so far, and then this game. Pitchers will now take notice so let's see how he responds. Suspect he will do well, but this is just an opinion of a hack. Egad, sometimes one game is all for us, one way or the other. Can we wait before anointing him to the HOF and trading off people. That said, I hope they play him more.
Sizemore hasn't been looking too bad at the plate, just a little off as to be expected. Let's see if he builds off from yesterday.
Breslow due back soon. Who goes.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 8, 2014 7:41:43 GMT -5
Breslow due back soon. Who goes. I'd be very surprised if it wasn't Workman ... he'll probably go down into the PawSox rotation and get stretched out for rotation depth.
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Post by godot on Apr 8, 2014 8:02:51 GMT -5
It would be their best move. I am very interested in Clay's next couple of games.
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Post by jmei on Apr 8, 2014 8:23:13 GMT -5
it'd be easy enough to check the average SLG in each lineup position and compare with the expected performance of the people occupying those slots in the Red Sox lineup. Assuming the following lineup: Nava, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Sizemore, Bogaerts, Pierzynski, Herrera, Bradley Here are the 2013 AL league-average SLG by position followed by the average of the two ROS projections on Fangraphs and the difference between the two: .393 .388 -.005 .402 .425 +.023 .431 .525 +.094 .450 .470 +.020 .424 .394 -.030 .415 .423 +.008 .396 .412 +.016 .378 .322 -.056 .343 .388 +.045 So under this accounting, the Red Sox really only project to have below-average slugging at two spots in the order (one of which involves an injury replacement situation), which is not bad at all. Looks like I was wrong-- the terrific infield (especially the Pedroia/Bogaerts combo) more than makes up for the middling outfield once you list it this way.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 8, 2014 8:38:44 GMT -5
Glad our best centerfielder got a chance to shine tonight. A m e n .
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 8, 2014 8:47:30 GMT -5
Yikes, that's more wanting to be right than wanting to win. You win more in the long run without sac bunts. Even when you're bunting to 1B side with Prince Fielder out there?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 8, 2014 9:03:44 GMT -5
Any reports about how long Middlebrooks is down for, how bad the injury is? Speaking for myself, of course, but I sort of miss the guy after watching a few of Herrera's moves down there. He makes the hot corner just a little hotter.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 8, 2014 9:11:55 GMT -5
Capuano against Choo I'll accept, but that's it. Bring a real pitcher in now, please. (edit: Tazawa is ready in the bullpen and Capuano is facing a righty. Why? Why these things?) (edit 2: because Prince Fielder. Acceptable.) OTOH, Tazawa has better numbers than Capuano even against lefties, so you really need Capuano's stuff to be playing up in relief quite a bit for this to have been the right move. Personally I am more upset that they didn't tell Koji to sit down after scoring the 4-1 and let Taz mop up in the 9th. You win more in the long run without sac bunts. This is true in general, but not necessarily true from about the 7th inning on. Just in case the reason is not obvious: yes, your probability of increasing your 1 run lead to a 3+ run lead is better if you swing away and thus the expected number of runs you score is higher, but the added winning probability of increasing a 1 run lead to a 2 run lead in the 8th inning is significantly higher than the added winning probability of increasing that 2 run lead further to a 3+ run lead. I agree that trading away Carp would not be unreasonable, but I wouldn't do it just to get rid of him. He does have value and I would want to get a mid-tier prospect in return, preferably an outfielder. Also I can understand if the Sox are still worried that Sizemore will hold up. Personally I would like Carp to stay, because I feel he has one of the best beards on the team.
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Post by jmei on Apr 8, 2014 9:18:20 GMT -5
Personally I am more upset that they didn't tell Koji to sit down after scoring the 4-1 and let Taz mop up in the 9th. Unfortunately, this will happen all season. Farrell has been on the record multiple times that if they warm Koji up, they'll use him in the game even if it's not a save situation anymore. I think the idea is that for a guy like Koji who is usually very efficient in his outings, warming up may be as strenuous as game action, so sitting him down after he gets warmed up does not really mean he's any more rested, so you might as well use him.
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Post by jmei on Apr 8, 2014 9:21:32 GMT -5
Any reports about how long Middlebrooks is down for, how bad the injury is? Speaking for myself, of course, but I sort of miss the guy after watching a few of Herrera's moves down there. He makes the hot corner just a little hotter. Farrell said last night that there was no timetable for his return. Based on the fact that it was a Grade 1 strain, moonstone estimated that it would probably be at least a month.
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