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First Base for 2013 (and Beyond)
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Post by larrycook on Nov 13, 2012 14:18:53 GMT -5
I think over the monster is reporting that the Yankees are interested in Napoli now given the uncertainty of the Russell Martin situation.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 13, 2012 14:37:49 GMT -5
A couple more options via trade would be: Tyler Moore, WAS Matt Adams, STL Idk if they are a good long term solution either though. or Mike Olt, but that would have to include Ellsbury. Texas has been trying to use Olt to get Upton. I am not sure the Red Sox could pry Olt from Texas. Plus Olt is a good defensive third baseman, something the Red Sox do not need, so you are paying extra for a glove that is not needed.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2012 15:38:33 GMT -5
From the articles I have been reading it really looks like they limited it to four possibilities, and from the amount of articles I would rank them
1. Napoli 2.Laroche 3.Ike Davis 4. Gomez/Sands
I personally like Napoli the best. wOBA of 341 on a down year. Also can catch in interleague games for Ortiz to play 1st. I think Sands would fit well on the roster if we go with Napoli, he be our 4th outfielder and take over at first when Napoli catches.
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Post by marrcus on Nov 13, 2012 16:17:34 GMT -5
It's beginning to look to me like the nyy might have to get Napoli. I don't know if they've really soured on Martin or what but just as I was warming to projections of Napoli's rhh power in Fenway...this. Anyway for a guy who didn't play very well last season he's in a very nice position even though his power numbers would be blunted in the wind tunnel in the Bronx.
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Post by remember04 on Nov 13, 2012 17:01:38 GMT -5
It's beginning to look to me like the nyy might have to get Napoli. I don't know if they've really soured on Martin or what but just as I was warming to projections of Napoli's rhh power in Fenway...this. Anyway for a guy who didn't play very well last season he's in a very nice position even though his power numbers would be blunted in the wind tunnel in the Bronx. I can't believe I'm about to say this and I'm not 100% sure its true (seeing is believing) but the yankees need to save their money and spend it wisely right now with Cano and Granderson needing to be replaced or re-signed soon.
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Post by afineline on Nov 18, 2012 20:22:27 GMT -5
As a new member, just want to bring up Travis Shaw, only because I saw him play in college several times. What makes him a candidate/prospect for 1B is that his approach fits Fenway well. Shaw has the ability to pepper the LF monster as a LHH.
Knowing his pedigree, I would not be surprised if he moves from AA to AAAPAW before the break, and a possible call up if he is successful.
By the way, the Sox quietly signed a RHP who was Shaw's teammate at Kent State, except, he was the cleanup hitter at the time. His offense numbers were great as a strong-armed RF, and I found several articles on the internet. Looks like when Theo took over the Cubs, he didn't feel it was worth another season to see what the kid could do with the stick, he only had like 250 PA's, but Theo forgot about the cannon.
That cannon is now a Red Sox pitcher. May be an interesting follow.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,830
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 18, 2012 21:41:00 GMT -5
As a new member, just want to bring up Travis Shaw, only because I saw him play in college several times. What makes him a candidate/prospect for 1B is that his approach fits Fenway well. Shaw has the ability to pepper the LF monster as a LHH. Knowing his pedigree, I would not be surprised if he moves from AA to AAAPAW before the break, and a possible call up if he is successful. By the way, the Sox quietly signed a RHP who was Shaw's teammate at Kent State, except, he was the cleanup hitter at the time. His offense numbers were great as a strong-armed RF, and I found several articles on the internet. Looks like when Theo took over the Cubs, he didn't feel it was worth another season to see what the kid could do with the stick, he only had like 250 PA's, but Theo forgot about the cannon. That cannon is now a Red Sox pitcher. May be an interesting follow. You know I was really looking forward to seeing Shaw in the Instructional League, and even though it was a very short sample, wasn't too impressed. I'd have to see a lot more, like on a daily basis, to say he was a strong candidate to play 1st in Boston. Hope he has a HUGE year and proves me wrong,
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Post by jioh on Nov 18, 2012 22:06:31 GMT -5
Having seen Shaw hit and read about him, I'd say his chance to play in mlb depends on his making slow and steady progress as both a hitter and at defense. Doesn't have the batspeed or athleticism of a Middlebrooks or Brentz. Maybe 2015, maybe never.
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Post by afineline on Nov 18, 2012 23:33:43 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxjason71 on Nov 21, 2012 22:45:39 GMT -5
Don't forget about Jerry Sands whom the Sox got in the Beckett/Gonzo trade. Living out here in Seattle I saw him play against the M's AAA club in Tacoma when he was with Albuquerque and he was a hell of a hitter and a vacuum at first too. He had a cup of coffee with the Dodgers last season, don't sleep on him he's legit!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 23:23:11 GMT -5
If the Sox grabbed Jason Bay on short money, would they consider alternating him and Ortiz at DH with the other playing LF and 1B? Would give you some platoon opportunities with a LF and 1B, and allow guys to rest some. Jason Bay is only mentioned by his friends in the Boston media who refuse to admit that he has now sucked wind for three years. It's a seriously unhealthy obsession. The argument against signing Bay isn't about the money, aren't most players who have ever been good worth $1M? It's about the 40 man roster spot. The way he's played the past three years, he isn't worth one. If they sign Bay to a major league deal, then they have to let go of a player who has a better chance of helping the team in 2012. The sooner the Boston media lets go of the idea that Jason Bay will suddenly become a good player again the moment he steps inside Boston city limits, the better off we will all be.
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Post by sdsoxfan on Nov 22, 2012 2:08:39 GMT -5
What are chances that Youk has a bounce back year with Sox if he can save his body from playing 3rd and switch back to 1st where he was almost gold glove and could play 150 or so games each year. Eyes tell you that his bat has slowed and he's missing good fastballs, but he won't cost much and could be a key right handed bat in middle of lineup.
Napoli is obviously first choice, then Morneau, then Youk who won't cost much and might like chance to play for Farrell and the faithful again. Just sayin
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Post by welovewally on Nov 22, 2012 5:48:36 GMT -5
If the Red Sox want to compete for a playoff spot in '13 they need to somehow trade for a 1B that hits 3rd or 4th (and make a few other moves). If they are unable to do that I don't think a playoff spot is realistic. So they might as well go the 1 year route with someone like Berkman (with Gomez & Sands in the wings), wait a year for the kids to develop further, and try to trade for one at the trade deadline or next year. I think adding Napoli as a #6 hitter AFTER adding a couple of hitters to hit 3rd & 4th with Ortiz in the 5 hole would be a good move. I just don't see him as a Center Piece addition on a 3+ yr contract that makes the team competitive while he hits 3rd/4th or 5th.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 28, 2012 0:00:56 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Nov 28, 2012 0:29:38 GMT -5
Peter Gammons tweeted that the Red Sox asked the Twins about Mauer multiple times in the last few months and that the Twins didn't want to discuss him. If it was a straight salary dump, I'd consider it, but I imagine the Twins will also want to squeeze a pretty good prospect or two out of Boston and that might be enough for me to want to move in another direction.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 28, 2012 1:17:53 GMT -5
The issue with Mauer is what position he plays now and in the future. As a catcher, he's a very good defender. That and the bat which plays very well at the position make him worth what he's paid. And as long a he hits as he did last year he's marginally worth his keep at first also.
The questions revolve around his willingness to shift to first base, his durability, and the length of that contract. His power appears to have peaked a few years ago though Target Field may have something to do with that. There's very little room for regression once he changes position and he's going to have to do that permanently soon or he breaks down in all likelihood. As great a ballplayer as Mauer is, it's a fine line if your trying to work him into a longterm budget.
For comparison sake, Napoli has a better slugging pct and because of that, his OPS is only slightly lower. He'll also be much cheaper and available on a shorter contract.
I know that doesn't cut any ice with many in the sports writing senior set, but it should. The idea that the team might revisit the sort of disaster it faced in 2012 if it doesn't take this stuff into account is absolutely lost on some of them. The new CBA makes it even more imperative, yet a few of the writers tout these deals as if none of that matters. It seems cynical and more than a little manipulative to me.
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Post by raftsox on Nov 28, 2012 8:01:12 GMT -5
Any trade with the Twins starts with Doubront, continues through Barnes and includes others. The Red Sox biggest problem is pitching, and trading our future rotation for an old wet-dream is pointless.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 28, 2012 8:14:00 GMT -5
Mauer is overpaid. It was a stupid contract contract from a baseball prospective when it was signed, and that will become more obvious as time goes on. The Twins should be looking to unload that albatross while they still can and not be asking for major assets in return. Nevertheless, I doubt the Twins trade Mauer.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2012 9:24:43 GMT -5
Joe Mauer played in 147 games and led baseball in OBP this year. The only first baseman who I'm positive is a better hitter is Votto. Fielder probably is too, and Pujols if he returns to form. Six years, $138M (Mauer's remaining contract) for the 4th best first baseman in baseball seems pretty reasonable. Seems a shame to waste his arm at first though - I bet he could be a plus third baseman (where the Sox don't really have a hole, but the Twins do) or right fielder. I'm sure he's athletic enough to make the switch - committed to Florida State to be their QB and all.
It doesn't sound like the Twins are up against a wall financially , so unless they decide that Mauer is way overpaid, they really don't need to trade their most popular player. He'll still be there when Sano and Buxton arrive.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 28, 2012 10:41:36 GMT -5
Joe Mauer played in 147 games and led baseball in OBP this year. The only first baseman who I'm positive is a better hitter is Votto. Fielder probably is too, and Pujols if he returns to form. Six years, $138M (Mauer's remaining contract) for the 4th best first baseman in baseball seems pretty reasonable. Seems a shame to waste his arm at first though - I bet he could be a plus third baseman (where the Sox don't really have a hole, but the Twins do) or right fielder. I'm sure he's athletic enough to make the switch - committed to Florida State to be their QB and all. It doesn't sound like the Twins are up against a wall financially , so unless they decide that Mauer is way overpaid, they really don't need to trade their most popular player. He'll still be there when Sano and Buxton arrive. 23 Million is a lot to pay any first baseman. It not a premium defensive position. Pujols got 24 million and Fielder was paid slightly under that. Mauer has no speed, and he he does not hit for the same power as Pujols or Fielder. Pujols (in STL) was a consistent .400 wOBA player. Fielder is right now a .400 .wOBA player. Mauer is realistically a .375 wOBA player (which is obviously still very good). Then you have to add in the very high injury concerns that follow Mauer after all the wear and tear of years at catcher. Mauer is a 4 to 5 win player at first, but he is likely to have that production fall off during the remaining life of the contract, which is not worth 23 million per year. I agree that Mauer brings more than his on the field production to the Twins, which is why they overpaid him in the first place. That additional value is why I believe the Twins will not trade Mauer.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2012 11:14:41 GMT -5
$23M is a lot, yes. But let's keep this in perspective. Mark Teixeira is going to be paid $90M over the next four years. Adrian Gonzalez will get $127M over the next six. Mauer is a better hitter than either of them. Votto, Fielder, and Pujols, the three 1B who are/may be better than Mauer, all have $200M left on their contracts. This is the going rate for an excellent 1B. $23M just doesn't buy what it used to.
I think Mauer set the bar very high for himself with his sublime 2009 season - he's still a wonderful player. The concerns over whether the time he's spent catching will limit him in the future are legitimate. It will be interesting to watch how he ages. His body may fail under him, but he has such exceptional plate discipline, bat control, and hand-eye coordination that I honestly believe he could put up a .360+ wOBA for another 10 years even if he has to crawl to first every time by then.
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Post by honkbal on Nov 28, 2012 11:31:21 GMT -5
There was some good analysis on fangraphs last winter on price per WAR by position, which showed that, at least over the last several years, teams have paid almost 50% more for a WAR at 1B than for the average WAR. Honestly, I'm not sure whether this implies that teams overvalue the position, WAR undervalues it, or some combination of the two. But it's something to think about when judging the fair market price for a first baseman
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Post by welovewally on Nov 30, 2012 4:15:12 GMT -5
If the Sox don't get Napoli or LaRoche (the names most frequently mentioned lately) to play 1B would a trade with Colorado for Michael Cuddyer be a good move? He is owed $21 Mil over the next 2yrs. What would it take to get him? Similar to Swishers' ability to play both 1B & RF but would be cheaper and for less years and would not require surrendering a pick but would cost players of some level being traded. Thoughts? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/rockies-not-likely-to-trade-dexter-fowler.html
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 30, 2012 8:22:48 GMT -5
There was some good analysis on fangraphs last winter on price per WAR by position, which showed that, at least over the last several years, teams have paid almost 50% more for a WAR at 1B than for the average WAR. Honestly, I'm not sure whether this implies that teams overvalue the position, WAR undervalues it, or some combination of the two. But it's something to think about when judging the fair market price for a first baseman The arbitration process overvalues traditional counting stats like HR/RBI, which good first basemen tend to have a ton of. So with top-tier first basemen, you either give them a huge extension, or they get huge money in arb and hit free agency. Either way they end up being very expensive.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 30, 2012 10:02:54 GMT -5
Half the point of having lots of budget room to work with is to avoid giving up talent (trades or comp picks) to acquire decent role players.
Who cares if they overpay Napoli? They've got nothing else to do with the money the next two years anyway.
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