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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by thursty on Dec 19, 2014 17:17:04 GMT -5
I took the Steamer projections from Fangraphs for the Red Sox and compared them to the actual 2014 stats. I did some averaging where the exact data is not provided. Steamer has not done a projection for Castillo so no stats for him are included. I also did not include Craig since it seems fairly obvious he won't be on the team next season. The 13 players included are: Vazquez, Hanigan, Napoli, Pedroia, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Holt, Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Ortiz, Nava and Bradley. Category 2014 Steamer 2015 Homeruns 123 144 Runs 634 707 BAPIP .297 .306 Bat Ave .244 .267 OBP .316 .340 Slug Pct .369 .409 wOBA .305 .331 wRC+ 90 109 WAR 17.4 29.5 (I can't recall which WAR steamer is, but I presume it is fWAR. Assuming that Castillo has a moderately good season, and assuming that Steamer is generally in the ball park with their projections, it appears the Sox offense will be considerably better and probably will score close to 200 runs more than it did in 2014. If that happens, and the pitching is decent, the Sox will have a very good season, maybe high 80s in wins. And it could be better if a top pitcher is added. I think the projections for Betts, Napoli and Bogaerts are low, but high for Victorino and Vazquez. I also think that Ramirez will hit more than the 20 HRs in the Steamer projection (which was done while he still was a Dodger). I tried comparing the pitching, but I don't think the pitching projections work now because of all the player moves. Steamer projects the Red Sox will score ~100 more runs in 2015
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 19, 2014 18:13:08 GMT -5
I took the Steamer projections from Fangraphs for the Red Sox and compared them to the actual 2014 stats. I did some averaging where the exact data is not provided. Steamer has not done a projection for Castillo so no stats for him are included. I also did not include Craig since it seems fairly obvious he won't be on the team next season. The 13 players included are: Vazquez, Hanigan, Napoli, Pedroia, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Holt, Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Ortiz, Nava and Bradley. Category 2014 Steamer 2015 Homeruns 123 144 Runs 634 707 BAPIP .297 .306 Bat Ave .244 .267 OBP .316 .340 Slug Pct .369 .409 wOBA .305 .331 wRC+ 90 109 WAR 17.4 29.5 (I can't recall which WAR steamer is, but I presume it is fWAR. Assuming that Castillo has a moderately good season, and assuming that Steamer is generally in the ball park with their projections, it appears the Sox offense will be considerably better and probably will score close to 200 runs more than it did in 2014. If that happens, and the pitching is decent, the Sox will have a very good season, maybe high 80s in wins. And it could be better if a top pitcher is added. I think the projections for Betts, Napoli and Bogaerts are low, but high for Victorino and Vazquez. I also think that Ramirez will hit more than the 20 HRs in the Steamer projection (which was done while he still was a Dodger). I tried comparing the pitching, but I don't think the pitching projections work now because of all the player moves. Steamer projects the Red Sox will score ~100 more runs in 2015 I haven't seen that. When did they make that projection? It doesn't make sense, given the additions to the lineup, and the likely recovery from injuries of Pedroia and Napoli, and the likely improvement of Bogaerts.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 19, 2014 18:16:14 GMT -5
I took the Steamer projections from Fangraphs for the Red Sox and compared them to the actual 2014 stats. I did some averaging where the exact data is not provided. Steamer has not done a projection for Castillo so no stats for him are included. I also did not include Craig since it seems fairly obvious he won't be on the team next season. The 13 players included are: Vazquez, Hanigan, Napoli, Pedroia, Sandoval, Bogaerts, Holt, Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Ortiz, Nava and Bradley. Category 2014 Steamer 2015 Homeruns 123 144 Runs 634 707 BAPIP .297 .306 Bat Ave .244 .267 OBP .316 .340 Slug Pct .369 .409 wOBA .305 .331 wRC+ 90 109 WAR 17.4 29.5 (I can't recall which WAR steamer is, but I presume it is fWAR. Assuming that Castillo has a moderately good season, and assuming that Steamer is generally in the ball park with their projections, it appears the Sox offense will be considerably better and probably will score close to 200 runs more than it did in 2014. If that happens, and the pitching is decent, the Sox will have a very good season, maybe high 80s in wins. And it could be better if a top pitcher is added. I think the projections for Betts, Napoli and Bogaerts are low, but high for Victorino and Vazquez. I also think that Ramirez will hit more than the 20 HRs in the Steamer projection (which was done while he still was a Dodger). I tried comparing the pitching, but I don't think the pitching projections work now because of all the player moves. Confused by the home run projection vs 2014. There should be a bigger discrepancy. Betts, Castillo, and Victorino combined for less than a full season of games. Napoli and Ramirez missed time. Ortiz had an off year by his standards and Sandoval did as well. Unimportant but it surprised me I agree. I think Steamer underestimates the power of some of the players, including Betts and Bogaerts. Ortiz did not have an off year in HRs, just in BA. It seems unlikely he will hit as many HRs again, and Steamer only forecasts 26 for him next season.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 19, 2014 18:16:40 GMT -5
Steamer projects the Red Sox will score ~100 more runs in 2015 I haven't seen that. When did they make that projection? It doesn't make sense, given the additions to the lineup, and the likely recovery from injuries of Pedroia and Napoli, and the likely improvement of Bogaerts. click on the ~100.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2014 18:28:22 GMT -5
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 19, 2014 20:07:47 GMT -5
Wonder if Sox would be better of just going to ST and seeing what becomes available from the waiver wire, or how Hembree/Escobar do in ST. Not in favor of giving breslow any MLB deal after last season and as of now, it will mean a DFA/waiver on another player, which is fine, as long as it's Britton, but not anyone else ATM. Just don't see Breslow's 2014 season rewarding enough for half of what his option was declined at (2m) and think one of the 2 rookies, or some veteran (Rich Hill type possibly) will show up between now and end of March to just get lefties out.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 19, 2014 20:28:07 GMT -5
How gray would it be if they only went with a 6 man bullpen and actually carried 5 bench players: You hit on one of my major pet peeves here. I just think it's utterly ridiculous for teams to need 12 P. A well-constructed and well-managed staff of 11 P should be enough. I'd like to see MLB either limit staffs to 11 P or expand the rosters to 26 players. Limiting staffs to 11 guys would force teams to look for RP capable of pitching more than an inning or two at a time effectively. Relief pitchers, on the other hand, would try to establish themselves as guys capable of pitching multiple innings effectively in order to help their employment prospects. It would be sort of a free-market or natural selection dynamic. That would leave managers with more flexibility in using the bench and that would make for more entertaining BB.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 19, 2014 20:38:50 GMT -5
The Sox just can't let go. Please Breslow pick Chicago. Join the contigentto bring them a title. I see Shawnessey writing a book about the Curse of the Goat. Try to make a few bucks off of that since the Bambino one got destroyed.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 19, 2014 20:39:41 GMT -5
I really hope they don't trade Craig just to clear a roster space or for a middle reliever. I think he could have a great bounce back season if he can be healthy and I have little faith in Ortiz being healthy or productive yet again. It's getting to the point of being very unrealistic at his age and he had a noticeable drop last season which I know I shouldn't read too much into but having Craig is a nice luxury. One which the team can afford. Don't be so sure. Papi's OPS-plus dropped in 2014 but it was still a beastly 143. (He was 159 in 2013.) Further, much of the decline in his slash line (.309/.395/.564 in '13; .263/.355/.517 in '14) was due to a ridiculously low BABIP of .256 (.321 in '14, .301 career). Some of the BABIP drop is probably due to the increased use of shifts and his stubborn refusal to take a single to LF now and then. But a lot of it has to be just plain old bad luck.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 19, 2014 20:43:02 GMT -5
I haven't seen that. When did they make that projection? It doesn't make sense, given the additions to the lineup, and the likely recovery from injuries of Pedroia and Napoli, and the likely improvement of Bogaerts. click on the ~100. I see what they did. They projected Castillo to hit .217 and have a negative WAR. But they projected the team to have a record of 86-76 and finish first in the division. So their team record projection is about the same as I suggested. However, I don't think Castillo will get 400 ABs with the Sox if he only hits .217. He either will hit a whole lot better than that, or he will be at Pawtucket. They also gave a lot more ABs to secondary players than I would. One of those, Middlebrooks, won't get any ABs! It's all guesswork at this point. We'll have a much better idea in ST.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2014 22:14:51 GMT -5
As of now, nothing is even in the talking stage on Cole Hamels; the Phils want to start with Betts and Swihart and Boston taking on the $100M and whatever it takes to waive the no-trade, and that isn’t happening. Nothing is going to deter Jordan Zimmermann from free agency, and the Red Sox aren’t trading three top tier kids for a year, as great as Zimmermann may be. www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-similar-business-models-have-cubs-red-sox-primed-for-success/And I want to have sex with multiple playboy models. But I know that won't happen
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Post by Guidas on Dec 19, 2014 22:42:44 GMT -5
So it's Scherzer then? Barring an injury should earn then money his first 4 years. It's those last three that kill ya...
And I still maintain if you take Pabelbon off the Phils hands in a hamels deal with the understanding that the closer job is unlikely open ( though spring could be set up as a competiton). This would defray the cost likely letting the Sox keep Betts. I'd offer Kelly or Miley or Owens rather than Swihart, and add in Cecchini if they pay half of Hamels deal or keep him if we pick up everything. The latter saves Phil about $30M next year, gives them some significant talent potential pieces to solidify their rotation and/or have some chips to deal if they want.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 19, 2014 22:53:25 GMT -5
As of now, nothing is even in the talking stage on Cole Hamels; the Phils want to start with Betts and Swihart and Boston taking on the $100M and whatever it takes to waive the no-trade, and that isn’t happening. Nothing is going to deter Jordan Zimmermann from free agency, and the Red Sox aren’t trading three top tier kids for a year, as great as Zimmermann may be. www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-similar-business-models-have-cubs-red-sox-primed-for-success/And I want to have sex with multiple playboy models. But I know that won't happen It's highly overrated. (I'm assuming you mean sequentially.) Seriously, if that's the asking price for Zimmerman, it makes sense now, because they need him to win. If they sign Scherzer, it comes way down. I don't think there's any pressure on us to get Hamels, Zimmerman or Cueto. If it happens, it happens; in the meantime, the current team as projected is really good and really deep. One of Theo's rules was "resist the temptation to build an uber-team" (which he probably broke in 2011). In fact, if there's any piece that's missing it's another shutdown reliever, which they seem less and less likely to add as they add candidates (Spruill, Varvaro, Breslow).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 19, 2014 23:00:01 GMT -5
I see us signing Shields before Scherzer, and think Shields will end up in SF. Just don't see Scherzer as a fit at all.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 19, 2014 23:16:10 GMT -5
I see us signing Shields before Scherzer, and think Shields will end up in SF. Just don't see Scherzer as a fit at all. And I see me dating Emma Stone before Ellen Page. If you read Gammons' latest piece, he talks about Shields giving up a ton of flyballs to left-center. Fenway has approximately a 300 park factor for left-center flyballs. Shields has a 3.48 career ERA versus the Sox in his home parks and 5.42 in Fenway. There has never been anything but a zero chance that he signed here.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 19, 2014 23:30:25 GMT -5
I see us signing Shields before Scherzer, and think Shields will end up in SF. Just don't see Scherzer as a fit at all. And I see me dating Emma Stone before Ellen Page. If you read Gammons' latest piece, he talks about Shields giving up a ton of flyballs to left-center. Fenway has approximately a 300 park factor for left-center flyballs. Shields has a 3.48 career ERA versus the Sox in his home parks and 5.42 in Fenway. There has never been anything but a zero chance that he signed here. Well my post alluded to the idea that we wouldn't sign either pitcher, but yes that's a huge red flag.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 19, 2014 23:36:03 GMT -5
I seem to remember Maddon attempting to work around Shields pitching at Fenway in his early years because he had so much trouble there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2014 23:32:16 GMT -5
There are 24 spots for MLB and AAA pitchers. We currently have 28 who clearly belong at least in AAA (red, projected for MLB or no options left); blue, options left and on the 40-man):
Starters (15): Clay Buchholz Rick Porcello Joe Kelly Wade Miley Justin Masterson Steven Wright Anthony Ranaudo Brandon Workman Matt Barnes Eduardo Rodriguez Edwin Escobar Henry Owens Brian Johnson Keith Couch Chris Hernandez
Note that two guys who should start the season in AA have a good chance of quickly proving they belong in Pawtucket. Luis Diaz had a 2.82 ERA and 3.31 FIP (.224 / .269 / .354 allowed) in his first 7 AA starts, and a 4.91 ERA and 4.62 FIP (.276 / .363 / .402) in his last 6. If that was because he hit the wall after 112 IP (his previous career high was 101), then he's going to add his name to this list by the end of April. Justin Haley had a 1.19 ERA and 3.57 FIP (.222 / .312 / .281) in his 6 SeaDogs starts, with more GDP induced than XBH allowed (5 to 4). You start him in AA because it is just 6 starts, but if he keep that up, he's going to be arguing that he belongs in AAA by mid-season, too.
Relievers (13): Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Edward Mujica Anthony Varvaro Drake Britton Craig Breslow Tommy Layne Zeke Spruill Heath Hembree Dalier Hinojosa Miguel Celestino Noe Ramirez Robby Scott
And then there's veteran Dayan Diaz, who had a 2.76 ERA and 2.71 FIP in his 11 AA outings. There's a solid chance that he can pitch in AAA before the season's half over.
So, there's 28 guys for 24 roster spots, with 3 guys waiting in the wings to supply further depth. How many of the 28 should you trade?
I think that on average, two of these are hurt in ST, and Breslow and Britton are DFA candidates. But it's hard to see how that adds up to four trims. You've really got to trade one of these guys (I keep coming back to Ranaudo as an obvious candidate), and trading two would make at least as much sense.
Let's say you dealt two and had 3 injuries or LHR DFAs ... that either means Dayan Diaz is the mop-up guy in the PawSox pen to open the season, or one of the veteran mlfa's that they're likely to sign takes that open spot. Does that create any kind of problem? Whereas you really want Ramirez and Scott to move up to the next level, and if you, say, trade one guy and have one injury, they both have to go back to AA.
So there really is no downside risk in terms of organizational depth to trading one too many of these guys: all you're doing is weakening Pawtucket's mop-up relief. Whereas the downside to not trading enough is holding back the development of Ramirez and, probably more importantly, eventually Luis Diaz.
So I think that ideally you do trade two. I thought that Hembree and Wilson were mutually redundant parts before they traded Wilson, so now I have Hembree and Spruill as redundant. And I think that Workman is a candidate, if a team wants him to start, or is thin in the pen.
Three possibilities for what comes back:
-- A-ball prospects -- An elite LHR, with Britton going the other way -- Zimmerman, etc., with Kelly going the other way
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 20, 2014 23:37:10 GMT -5
Great summary eric
ADDS:
For Ranaudo (and Johnson) I'd hope that the Sox went to the spring before considering trading either and both for the same reason. If you look at their histories, this was a stretch out year for both, both flashed mid nineties but sat low 90's. It wouldn't surprise me if either came to spring sitting higher velocity, maybe much higher.
On Diaz, I do think he ran into a wall but that was a different 'stretch' approach. In one of his last games before the short shutdown, I watched him throw 103 pitches and was still sitting 95 at the end. It was the next start or the start after that when they gave him a break. 100+ pitches at mid nineties velocity near the innings wall is pretty damn impressive for a 22 year old.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 21, 2014 1:21:50 GMT -5
I actually see the bullpen as potentially being thin there, depending on who moves from the rotation. I'd actually look at it like this:
Starters (13): Clay Buchholz Rick Porcello Joe Kelly Wade Miley Justin Masterson Steven Wright Anthony Ranaudo Matt Barnes Eduardo Rodriguez Edwin Escobar Henry Owens Brian Johnson Keith Couch
Relievers (15): Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Edward Mujica Anthony Varvaro Drake Britton Craig Breslow Brandon Workman (I certainly get listing him as a starter, but I just don't see how he starts anywhere.) Tommy Layne Zeke Spruill Heath Hembree Dalier Hinojosa Miguel Celestino Noe Ramirez Chris Hernandez (Moves here because, to be frank, the only games he's starting anymore are if someone is needed on short noticed in AAA.) Robby Scott
To deal with this, I could see Johnson and/or Couch briefly beginning the year in Double-A. Robby Scott also easily could slip back to Portland to start the year.
They're going to have interesting decisions to make with guys like Wright and Escobar, but I don't think there's any situation right now where they HAVE to trade someone. Portland's pitching staff is thin enough that they can push guys down there for a month or two if need be.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 21, 2014 1:36:52 GMT -5
I agree with eric's general premise and I'm not so sure it's a case of HAVING to trade somebody, I think it's more of a case of providing enough innings for those we keep being more beneficial in the long run. I don't think there's any question that we're crowded.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 21, 2014 3:54:38 GMT -5
I certainly didn't mean to imply that they needed to trade anyone, just that it would optimize available innings and competition for everyone else if they did.
I would really like for them to use Craig and/or excess pitching to get a first-rate LHR, someone who can get RHB out and pitch the 7th or 8th. If they simply traded Craig and Britton for such a guy, that would clear the Breslow roster spot.
And then I very much like phil's idea of waiting until ST to deal Ranaudo, etc. See how your own injury situation is, and not only exploit the possibility that Ranaudo will look better in ST, but the fact that other teams will have injuries and will be looking for a 4th / 5th starter type.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 21, 2014 6:47:28 GMT -5
Next year's potential free agent starter class, off the top of my head (I'm sure there are others):
Price Samardjia Zimmermann Cueto Porcello Iwakuma Masterson Fister Latos Lackey Kennedy
WOW You could make 2 complete champion caliber rotations out of that without involving the Colons or Hudsons. There will also be some notable 1 year rentals like Strasburg and Cashner.
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2014 17:27:24 GMT -5
I'm probably one of the posters who is the most down on Ranaudo, but I think trading him now is likely selling low on him, and he's almost certainly better than he showed in his brief MLB time last year. I also think he has some potential as a reliever-- he can eliminate his fringy changeup and focus on his curveball, and he might get that extra tic or two on his fastball needed to consistently get swings-and-misses.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 21, 2014 17:42:56 GMT -5
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