Meanwhile the fly balls generated by the Low GB% group are more likely to turn into pop-ups and less likely to leave the park.
The problem with that analysis is obvious. GB pitchers allow fewer flyballs, so even if they ones the do allow are a little more likely to leave the park, there may very well be less of them over all. Here's a comparison for two ex-Tigers that should drive the point home.
These are career numbers for Porcello (4563 PAs) and Scherzer (5138 PAs):
Porcello
Scherzer
Home Runs/PA
2.4%
2.6%
XBH/PA
7.4%
7.7%
XBH/H
30%
35%
Now, that last number is itself, a little misleading, since Porcello allows 10 H/9 and Scherzer only 8.5 H/9. Nonetheless the message is clear. There are fewer balls in the air so, overall, fewer home runs and fewer extra base hits.
The biggest difference comes from the DP rates:
Porcello
Scherzer
DP Rate
23%
9%
Put a good defense behind Porcello and the H/9 probably go down, with the DP% maybe even increasing. I think the Sox will take that bet.
It includes a bet that Xander demonstrably improve his defense at SS from last year.
You can put your boots in the oven, but that don't make 'em biscuits.
Doesn't have to include that bet. Castellanos and Cabrera are god-awful defensively. Bogaerts cannot be worse than both of them together.
We're likely to have to wait a little longer on that since Ortiz is likely to be the first baseman for his first start (at Philadelphia) .
Last Edit: Feb 20, 2015 21:33:05 GMT -5 by philsbosoxfan
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